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Giving Your Edge Away

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 11:55am Mar 6, 2013 11:28am | Edited 11:55am
Hi all,

When we discuss our strategies/systems/methods (whatever you want to call them) in the public domain, do we inadvertently risk losing some or even all of our edge?

Perhaps I’m a little paranoid or even selfish, but say you have developed a strategy which you’ve back tested and forward tested to be very successful over the long term; why would you take the risk of big players using your idea, only to lose out to their faster trade execution?

You might argue that the FX market has unfathomably deep liquidity, so any adverse affect to your edge, if any, would be negligible? And that would be a very good point, but I'd argue that an edge that everyone knows about isn't an edge at all! Granted, everyone has their own trading style, so the system would be interpreted slightly differently by each person, yadda yadda yadda. But if the crux of the system is being exploited by an ever increasing number of people (or more importantly, an ever increasing amount of capital) your edge is sure to diminish?


Would it not have been wiser to keep your unique trading advantage to yourself?

All constructive comments welcome!
Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win
  • #2
  • Mar 6, 2013 12:05pm Mar 6, 2013 12:05pm
Sometimes the trade execution speed does not matter - for example, if you're trading on D1.
  • #3
  • Mar 6, 2013 2:49pm Mar 6, 2013 2:49pm
Any gimmicks people here come up with are going to be largely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Retail traders have a tiny amount of capital in comparison with the big banks and institutions that trade billions every day. Do you think that even if all of the retail traders banded together with the same strategy that it would make a difference? It'd be like spitting in the ocean. So don't worry about it.
  • #4
  • Mar 6, 2013 3:02pm Mar 6, 2013 3:02pm
Agree with you. Core of the system must not be exposed. Here on ff also lurking hedge funds, large players for ideas.

Your idea will diminish anyway. Crazy to speed up the process.
  • #5
  • Mar 6, 2013 3:43pm Mar 6, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting burnzmeister


Would it not have been wiser to keep your unique trading advantage to yourself?

!
Yes indeed. And when your trading advantage stops working it's time to go into the training business or sell your system on ebay for 29.95.
  • #6
  • Mar 6, 2013 3:52pm Mar 6, 2013 3:52pm
trust me, your edge is already out there (if by edge you mean technical strategy) there is nothing new in forex, nothing new in trading...

If you're teaching a way to approach trading and to control discipline, emotions, psychology etc... most will be unteachable and ultimately fail anyway...

So, stop making the mistake of worrying about others affecting your results, it's all down to you at the end of the day.
tradewith60
  • #7
  • Mar 6, 2013 4:14pm Mar 6, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting burnzmeister
Would it not have been wiser to keep your unique trading advantage to yourself?
You could also argue that the more people trading the same method, the better.....up to a point. For instance, why do fibs and pivots etc work so well? Because there are so many of us looking at the same levels that we inadvertently make it happen ('we' being more than just those of us here at FF). It's like a self fulfilling prophesy.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #8
  • Mar 6, 2013 5:40pm Mar 6, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting Kanzler
Any gimmicks people here come up with are going to be largely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Retail traders have a tiny amount of capital in comparison with the big banks and institutions that trade billions every day. Do you think that even if all of the retail traders banded together with the same strategy that it would make a difference? It'd be like spitting in the ocean. So don't worry about it.
True

Quoting 60minuteman
trust me, your edge is already out there (if by edge you mean technical strategy) there is nothing new in forex, nothing new in trading...

If you're teaching a way to approach trading and to control discipline, emotions, psychology etc... most will be unteachable and ultimately fail anyway...

So, stop making the mistake of worrying about others affecting your results, it's all down to you at the end of the day.


Quoting seaman2
Here on ff also lurking hedge funds, large players for ideas.
Hedge fund managers are not on here looking for ideas.
  • #9
  • Mar 6, 2013 5:45pm Mar 6, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting burnzmeister
Hi all,

When we discuss our strategies/systems/methods (whatever you want to call them) in the public domain, do we inadvertently risk losing some or even all of our edge?

Perhaps I’m a little paranoid or even selfish, but say you have developed a strategy which you’ve back tested and forward tested to be very successful over the long term; why would you take the risk of big players using your idea, only to lose out to their faster trade execution?

You might argue that the FX market has unfathomably deep liquidity, so any adverse affect...
Can't your broker see your chart?
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #10
  • Mar 6, 2013 5:49pm Mar 6, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
Can't your broker see your chart?
The question is more like "Would your broker want to see your chart?" Given what I see posted publicly on this forum and the success rate of almost everyone here I would answer that with a resounding "NO!".
  • #11
  • Mar 6, 2013 6:16pm Mar 6, 2013 6:16pm
Quoting burnzmeister
Hi all,



Perhaps I’m a little paranoid or even selfish, but say you have developed a strategy .....


Would it not have been wiser to keep your unique trading advantage to yourself?

All constructive comments welcome!
What I am reading here is that you are more concerned about losing and looking over your shoulder to see who is coming than focusing on what you can control ...... yourself.
Until you focus on what you can do to make money on forex, you will not be successful.
Time to push the chair back, fold your arms across your chest and say..... mmmmmm.
  • #12
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:01pm Mar 6, 2013 7:01pm
because no one among retail traders,,can guess exactly / / accuracy 100%,,all the time
where prices will move up or down a number of 15 pip within 15 minutes ahead
or 30 pips or 50 pips in 3 or 4 hours ahead
,,we can not even guess 1 day or 3 days or 18 days ahead,,,and so on,,,,
prices will move up or down 100 pip or 300 pip ,, and so on

it's all about probability
high probability,, or medium probability,, or low probability

if someone can guess accuracy 100% all the time ,,within ,2 minutes or 5 minutes ahead,, prices will move up or down 15 pip only
( provided that spread and slippage,,not a number 15 pip also )
that person will be listed in the list of richest people in the world series in forbes magazine ##

salaam

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=408261&page=2
  • #13
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:28pm Mar 6, 2013 7:28pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hedge fund managers are not on here looking for ideas.
Maybe they are. I know one high profile individual who is a FF member. He's not a hedge fund manager per se though. If there's one such high profile individual here, then it's fair to assume there are more, and at least one of them might actually be a hedge fund manager.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #14
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:41pm Mar 6, 2013 7:41pm
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
Quoting 60minuteman
So, stop making the mistake of worrying about others affecting your results, it's all down to you at the end of the day.
Well said
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #15
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:48pm Mar 6, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting 60minuteman
trust me, your edge is already out there (if by edge you mean technical strategy) there is nothing new in forex, nothing new in trading...

If you're teaching a way to approach trading and to control discipline, emotions, psychology etc... most will be unteachable and ultimately fail anyway...

So, stop making the mistake of worrying about others affecting your results, it's all down to you at the end of the day.

trust me, your edge is already out there (if by edge you mean technical strategy) there is nothing new in forex, nothing new in trading...
If you're teaching a way to approach trading and to control discipline, emotions, psychology etc... most will be unteachable and ultimately fail anyway...
So, stop making the mistake of worrying about others affecting your results, it's all down to you at the end of the day.


i almost missed this one

salaam
  • #16
  • Mar 6, 2013 8:14pm Mar 6, 2013 8:14pm
Quoting vox dei
Maybe they are. I know one high profile individual who is a FF member. He's not a hedge fund manager per se though. If there's one such high profile individual here, then it's fair to assume there are more, and at least one of them might actually be a hedge fund manager.
The only thing I would imagine a fund manager coming here for is maybe to see what "the crowd" is talking about. To see if he can gauge where the news is leading them. In other words gossip. Other then that I can't imagine a hedge fund guy who is in control of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars relying on anything this site offers (sorry FF). For starters, they have the money, power and connections to attain good information. Why would you look here when you have people in the field telling you what's really happening at banks, in government and throughout the market. Coming here for serious advice would be like getting golf swing lessons from a bowler.
  • #17
  • Mar 6, 2013 8:21pm Mar 6, 2013 8:21pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
The only thing I would imagine a fund manager coming here for is maybe to see what "the crowd" is talking about. To see if he can gauge where the news is leading them. In other words gossip. Other then that I can't imagine a hedge fund guy who is in control of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars relying on anything this site offers (sorry FF). For starters, they have the money, power and connections to attain good information. Why would you look here when you have people in the field telling you what's really happening at banks, in government...
The few profitable traders I know here only hang around for the community/entertainment factor, they definitely aren't here for tips.
  • #18
  • Mar 6, 2013 8:33pm Mar 6, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
The only thing I would imagine a fund manager coming here for is maybe to see what "the crowd" is talking about. To see if he can gauge where the news is leading them. In other words gossip. Other then that I can't imagine a hedge fund guy who is in control of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars relying on anything this site offers (sorry FF). For starters, they have the money, power and connections to attain good information. Why would you look here when you have people in the field telling you what's really happening at banks, in government...
I wasn't thinking about trading news/fundamentals at all on my previous post, only technical trading. If hedge fund managers trade solely based on news/fundamentals then I have to agree, there's really nothing for them here.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #19
  • Mar 6, 2013 8:35pm Mar 6, 2013 8:35pm
Quoting burnzmeister
Hi all,

When we discuss our strategies/systems/methods (whatever you want to call them) in the public domain, do we inadvertently risk losing some or even all of our edge?

Perhaps I’m a little paranoid or even selfish, but say you have developed a strategy which you’ve back tested and forward tested to be very successful over the long term; why would you take the risk of big players using your idea, only to lose out to their faster trade execution?

You might argue that the FX market has unfathomably deep liquidity, so any adverse affect to...
Just a few thoughts.

In the end, each trader trades his or her own belief system.

Take a look at any system here on FF. The pattern is the same. Somebody puts out the system with detailed rules. A few posts later somebody else comes along and says " I love this system, but instead of indicator X , I use indicator Y and my results are twice as good". Than another posters comes along and says " I like indicator X, but I like 12 periods because that is a biblical number of completion. In the very next post, another trader argues that 13 is the best period to use because it is based on Fibonacci. Still another poster chimes in that both X and Y work great together but the real "key" is to add a 31 period simple moving average. Before you know it, and before we are even off the first page, we have an entirely different system then the one is the first post.

Now think about this.

The Head and Shoulders pattern is a well known technical pattern. It is in almost every book on basic technical analysis. Based on what people say should happen, we should not see a Head and Shoulders pattern anymore. Why? Because so many people know this pattern and therefore would be prone to use it. But the really smart ones would try and "jump" the whole pattern. That is get in before the pattern completes. And if all these traders are attempting to get in before the pattern completes, the pattern doesn't actually end up completing. Well, we continue to see perfect Head and Shoulder patterns today.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #20
  • Mar 6, 2013 8:46pm Mar 6, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Just a few thoughts.

In the end, each trader trades his or her own belief system.

Take a look at any system here on FF. The pattern is the same. Somebody puts out the system with detailed rules. A few posts later somebody else comes along and says " I love this system, but instead of indicator X , I use indicator Y and my results are twice as good". Than another posters comes along and says " I like indicator X, but I like 12 periods because that is a biblical number of completion. In the very next post, another trader argues that 13 is the...
If I ever meet a profitable head and shoulders trader I'll eat my shorts. The reason it still exists today is much like the reason Elliot waves do...it's a load of subjective, retrospective crapola.
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