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AUD/USD - is it still risk adverse?

  • #101
  • Mar 5, 2013 3:30pm Mar 5, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting Derextreme
Looks like shorting would be ideal since its in a bearish trend though.
Of course, sell bearish trends, but consider that they must end at some point.

Of course picking the bottom is one of the most difficult things in FX,

But I am using the tools I have to try and help. Thank you for your thoughts
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #102
  • Mar 6, 2013 12:12am Mar 6, 2013 12:12am
Looking at the 4hr chart this morning. I can't help but think a small pullback will take place. Will wait for stoch to be over 80 and macd bars decreasing. If momentum is still strong, it could push up to resistance at 1.0328. Might be a good shorting area from there. Will wait and see.

Good luck all

http://i1072.photobucket.com/albums/...ps4007bcb1.png
  • #103
  • Mar 6, 2013 2:40am Mar 6, 2013 2:40am
Quoting Terraforce1
Looking at the 4hr chart this morning. I can't help but think a small pullback will take place. Will wait for stoch to be over 80 and macd bars decreasing. If momentum is still strong, it could push up to resistance at 1.0328. Might be a good shorting area from there. Will wait and see.

Good luck all
Nice analysis, good use of indicators

personally i don't use any indicators like stochastics or MA's,

But 1.03 has a strong history of a Support/Resistance level, through rejection and naturally a psych level.

We have experienced rejection, have not had H4 close yet, USD news is undoubtedly the decider for this level in the next 3 H4 candles.

Basically I believe we have 2 targets, 1.022 for bears and 1.036 for bulls.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 1.03 Resistance.PNG Size: 58 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #104
  • Mar 6, 2013 4:38am Mar 6, 2013 4:38am
Quoting John Gray
Nice analysis, good use of indicators

personally i don't use any indicators like stochastics or MA's,

But 1.03 has a strong history of a Support/Resistance level, through rejection and naturally a psych level.

We have experienced rejection, have not had H4 close yet, USD news is undoubtedly the decider for this level in the next 3 H4 candles.

Basically I believe we have 2 targets, 1.022 for bears and 1.036 for bulls.
Thanks John

I agree, if we can break 1.036 bulls should push it higher. However the 1.0235 area is crucial for the bears.
  • #105
  • Mar 6, 2013 1:37pm Mar 6, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting Terraforce1
Thanks John

I agree, if we can break 1.036 bulls should push it higher. However the 1.0235 area is crucial for the bears.
Agreed, market acting indecisive around this level.

I actually have no shorts in the AUDUSD, expecting to to rise, no rate cuts, Aussie fell so perhaps there's no need for the rate cut in that area?

Of course there is a handful of different reasons, I did a presentation on the OCR so I do know, but perhaps give it 2-3 months, time to get to 1.06
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #106
  • Mar 7, 2013 8:36am Mar 7, 2013 8:36am
AUDUSD looks bullish to me on the 1hr chart. On the chart I set my target for 1.0303. Anything above that it could run further.

Good luck all

http://i1072.photobucket.com/albums/...ps9bfc1e31.png
  • #107
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:21pm Mar 7, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting Terraforce1
AUDUSD looks bullish to me on the 1hr chart. On the chart I set my target for 1.0303. Anything above that it could run further.

Good luck all
Thanks again,

Referring back to my downwards channel, I would like to point this out, shows the strength of this channel really, some would say chance, but it is rather interesting. But the rejection off the upper channel is important, in my eyes.


Anyway, there is opportunity for an AB=CD bullish pattern, with a target of 1.042, AB being 1.01 to 1.03 with BC being 1.03 to 1.022, CD therefore would be projected to 1.042 from 1.022.

The AB=CD Pattern is also taken from a Descending Triangle Pattern, taken from B0C
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD AB=CD 1.042Target.PNG Size: 68 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #108
  • Mar 8, 2013 8:13pm Mar 8, 2013 8:13pm
New week & new wish for aud. A good resistance againest uncle Sam seen last week.
Jhon u r doing very nice. keep it.
Trade with Patience
  • #109
  • Mar 9, 2013 11:42pm Mar 9, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting John Gray
Thanks again,

Referring back to my downwards channel, I would like to point this out, shows the strength of this channel really, some would say chance, but it is rather interesting. But the rejection off the upper channel is important, in my eyes.


Anyway, there is opportunity for an AB=CD bullish pattern, with a target of 1.042, AB being 1.01 to 1.03 with BC being 1.03 to 1.022, CD therefore would be projected to 1.042 from 1.022.

The AB=CD Pattern is also taken from a Descending Triangle Pattern, taken from B0C
Market sitting at point C, 1.022, AB=CD pattern forecasts 1.042 as next rally. Pattern fails if market much further down, using 1.03 as a reversal point rather then a point of retracement
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #110
  • Mar 9, 2013 11:43pm Mar 9, 2013 11:43pm
China has mixed news, more important news was positive, better then expected so I dont think it would be unreasonable to expect a small gap up on market opening.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #111
  • Mar 10, 2013 3:28pm Mar 10, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting John Gray
China has mixed news, more important news was positive, better then expected so I dont think it would be unreasonable to expect a small gap up on market opening.
http://www.xe.com/?r=1
XE currently has AU at 1.0207
Cheers John..........
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #112
  • Mar 10, 2013 3:45pm Mar 10, 2013 3:45pm
Aussie is going through some challenges ATM especially with the government. China's figures aren't that encouraging either.
  • #113
  • Mar 11, 2013 4:27am Mar 11, 2013 4:27am
Quoting Uturn2
http://www.xe.com/?r=1
XE currently has AU at 1.0207
Cheers John..........
Quoting llonigro
Aussie is going through some challenges ATM especially with the government. China's figures aren't that encouraging either.
Sorry Uturn2, can't be 100% correct!!

Market closed gap anyway so no problem there, still sitting a newly formed downward channel, will take some good news, which isn't exactly happening, to send us into bullish motion.

The picture speaks for itself, a break above the upper channel is what I am betting on, with a target of 1.036.

Longer term is 1.042 as per the AB=CD which is still valid, Chart2 (outdated) below
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD Downward Channel.PNG Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD AB=CD 1.042Target.PNG Size: 68 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #114
  • Mar 13, 2013 8:00pm Mar 13, 2013 8:00pm
AUD keeps going up, 1.04 by COB today is my prediction.
  • #115
  • Mar 13, 2013 8:02pm Mar 13, 2013 8:02pm
Quoting manilaguy
AUD keeps going up, 1.04 by COB today is my prediction.
Well I have been targeting 1.042

Anyway, 1.036 cleared, next top 1.04
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #116
  • Mar 14, 2013 12:06am Mar 14, 2013 12:06am
Quoting John Gray
Well I have been targeting 1.042

Anyway, 1.036 cleared, next top 1.04
Hi John,

From, the Low 1.01 Low ( as predicted ),

Quoting Forex Magic
I think we shall see some consolidation today and then perhaps a move towards 1.0100.

I see from that a 3 wave move up which shall precede a 5 wave move down.

This requires confirmation and given that the 3 wave sequence looks almost complete then it should confirm or fail before early next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auday.png Size: 56 KB
  • #117
  • Mar 14, 2013 2:01am Mar 14, 2013 2:01am
Quoting John Gray
Well I have been targeting 1.042

Anyway, 1.036 cleared, next top 1.04
Well done John. Are you looking for a student ?
  • #118
  • Mar 14, 2013 3:02am Mar 14, 2013 3:02am
Right now you can scalp till 30 Min. between 1.03595-1.0371 (Low Buy High sell)
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #119
  • Mar 14, 2013 6:49pm Mar 14, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting llonigro
Well done John. Are you looking for a student ?
I am a student.

One who learns from those who don't trade unfortunately. top business school in NZ, top 100 in the world, no traders

Lies, there is one who does elliot waves on the Silver Markets XAG/USD but he doesnt teach.


Anyway,

cross targets at 1.047, a pierce at the meeting point will send us to 1.06, this strategy predicted breakout of EJ back at 100-105 of course it did not predict it going to 125 but it predicted the beginning.

This depends on AB=CD being completed at 1.042 rather soon. Can wait a few weeks, range a bit then some crazy news like raising the RBA rates would be ideal reason being it is so unlikely and AUD has priced a lot of bad news lately. hence why retail and unemployment data put a dent in those trading the bearish sentiment.

and yes the AB=CD is an outdated picture, just for the purpose of showing when it was constructed
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Cross Target 1.047.PNG Size: 103 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD AB=CD 1.042Target.PNG Size: 68 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #120
  • Last Post: Mar 14, 2013 6:50pm Mar 14, 2013 6:50pm
Quoting Forex Magic
Hi John,

From, the Low 1.01 Low ( as predicted ),




I see from that a 3 wave move up which shall precede a 5 wave move down.

This requires confirmation and given that the 3 wave sequence looks almost complete then it should confirm or fail before early next week.
Yes I am looking for confirmation as well for higher targets 1.042, 1.047, 1.06 etc
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
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