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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #5,641
  • Feb 5, 2013 7:26am Feb 5, 2013 7:26am
I really like how elliot gives you a common language to discuss patterns. I wonder how classical patterns like flags can be described in elliot.
  • #5,642
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:14am Feb 5, 2013 9:14am
Surely what is labelled -1- cant be -1- , because -2- spikes below it, even though it closes above. simple zigzag correction? its already deep
ive decided, no more elliot wave determination in tick charts in strongly trending markets, way to confusing with all the little bumps..... i need to look at least at 15 minute charts when trading tick charts..... and maybe h4 to determine overall structure, and then 5 minute, and maybe 1 minute in strongly trending markets to verify small structure....

previously i thought this correction (if it is), was a expanded flat
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  • #5,643
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:27am Feb 5, 2013 11:27am
Quoting Starry
I labeled it (iii), the third leg of an impulse wave which was in the second leg of a zigzag correction on h4.

so i guess that would make the leg a (iv), which would mean counting the downleg as an impulse leg was wrong. well, atleast the minimal requirements for the end of the 3 wave were mark on.... but if the down wave truly isnt an impulse wave, that means everything there was wrong....

h4 count
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Exactly.
Yes, you will expect to see 5-wave moves, but knowing where (approximately) where the Wave (iv) will fall these would either have to be two clear bearish 5-wave moves with alternation or a double zz or triple 3. My target was 1.3453-86. That was why I was suggesting that you look at the higher degree to get a sense of expectation...

I would avoid tick charts as the noise will be too much. I do occasionally go to 1 minute charts if there is such a sharp move that a 5-minute chart just sees a single straight line. However, the ratios do work. I normally analyse using the 5-minute chart.

And the lower 1-2 could not be right as you pointed out.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,644
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:39am Feb 5, 2013 11:39am
Quoting Ian Copsey
Exactly.
Yes, you will expect to see 5-wave moves, but knowing where (approximately) where the Wave (iv) will fall these would either have to be two clear bearish 5-wave moves with alternation or a double zz or triple 3. My target was 1.3453-86. That was why I was suggesting that you look at the higher degree to get a sense of expectation...

I would avoid tick charts as the noise will be too much. I do occasionally go to 1 minute charts if there is such a sharp move that a 5-minute chart just sees a single straight line. However, the ratios do...
wow right on. ill need to study each chart in the book too get some eperience with pre labelled diagrams to teach me ...
  • #5,645
  • Feb 7, 2013 12:13am Feb 7, 2013 12:13am
VIDEO: HOW NOT TO ABUSE TREND LINES...

Trend lines are a technique that appear very, very simple... and they are. However, the technique is abused and misunderstood by experienced as well as new traders/analysts. In this video I explain the basic definition and function of a trend line and how not to fall for the basic errors that are commonly seen by using some basic logic.

USING TREND LINES LOGICALLY

Good trading
Ian Copsey
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,646
  • Feb 25, 2013 11:42pm Feb 25, 2013 11:42pm
WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR THE DOLLAR INDEX

Good trading
Ian
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,647
  • Mar 2, 2013 7:51pm Mar 2, 2013 7:51pm
Counting the waves sometimes can be highly subjective. Different counts for different people and on the same time frame!
  • #5,648
  • Mar 3, 2013 12:51am Mar 3, 2013 12:51am
Quoting Trendylines
Counting the waves sometimes can be highly subjective. Different counts for different people and on the same time frame!
Indeed, traditional EW allows all sorts of weird and wonderful counts. Some are highly inventive! Rarely can there be any consistent forecasting of wave endings.

At least Harmonic Elliott Wave places greater discipline on ensuring that lower and higher degree projections have the same target area and that the ratios within the impulsive sequence comply to the common cluster targets. It doesn't completely avoid misjudgments but raises the frequency of extremely accurate forecasts.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,649
  • Mar 3, 2013 12:58am Mar 3, 2013 12:58am
Quoting Ian Copsey
How did you label the 1.3711 high?
Hello Ian,

How would you label the 1.3711 High? on a bigger picture such as Daily or even weekly/ monthly chart?
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,650
  • Mar 3, 2013 2:02am Mar 3, 2013 2:02am
Quoting Raza
Hello Ian,

How would you label the 1.3711 High? on a bigger picture such as Daily or even weekly/ monthly chart?
I have some reservations but think it's Wave (A)... I want to watch how this move lower continues, what structure and how any recovery develops.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,651
  • Edited 3:47am Mar 3, 2013 3:01am | Edited 3:47am
Quoting Ian Copsey
I have some reservations but think it's Wave (A)... I want to watch how this move lower continues, what structure and how any recovery develops.
Thanks for your reply.

I think its WAVE (e) OF Wave B.....( abcde) Daily/weekly chart.( call it Skewed TG )

Wave (A) was at 1.2314 low.....

and Now from (B @ 1.3711)......

Wave (1) of this wave (C) down going into 1.16xx first then 1.10 and target is somewhere near parity or a bit below. I need to see a breach of 1.16 first.( Cyclic 3 wave deep Correction)..{ABC}

I do the same as you with Ratios...but mine is very simple to do and accurate.

Also by gauging it with Supply Demand in Mind....its very hard to see it go Up now.( I was a Bull for the longest time)

There is a Bullish Divergence on weekly if it does not play out now it will never play out.

This coming week is important for EU.( 1.2924 -1.2902 is the limit for any Bull left, based on Fibs+Gann symmetry and Angles) IMO.

(1.3345 -65 is Resistence)
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,652
  • Mar 3, 2013 4:47am Mar 3, 2013 4:47am
Quoting Raza
Thanks for your reply.

I think its WAVE (e) OF Wave B.....( abcde) Daily/weekly chart.( call it Skewed TG )

Wave (A) was at 1.2314 low.....

and Now from (B @ 1.3711)......

Wave (1) of this wave (C) down going into 1.16xx first then 1.10 and target is somewhere near parity or a bit below. I need to see a breach of 1.16 first.( Cyclic 3 wave deep Correction)..{ABC}

I do the same as you with Ratios...but mine is very simple to do and accurate.

Also by gauging it with Supply Demand in Mind....its very hard to see it...
I agree with you on the irregular triangle.

I totally disagree with the 1.2328 low being Wave (A). The drop from 1.6038 did not decline in 5 waves. Of that I am very, very certain and it's one of the clear illogicalities of traditional EW. Within that entire decline there is no alternation. It is a 3-wave decline as there is alternation in the Wave ii and Wave iv of the Wave (a) and Wave (c).

I was expecting that the recovery from 1.2042 would be in 3 waves to form a Wave (X). I suspect you are using the 1.2661-1.3711 as Wave (c). I am pretty certain that there was no 5-wave move there with impulsive ratios. I can make a 5-wave move from 1.2042 to 1.3711. The doubt I have is that the 1.3711 was just about enough for a Wave ^e ... but that's the doubt and why I am watching to see how this move lower develops. So far it is proving to be impulsive but not a million points away from ending.

This week it will stall either at 1.2887 or at most 1.2844. I have had the 1.2887 target for 2-3 weeks now.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,653
  • Mar 3, 2013 11:12am Mar 3, 2013 11:12am
Quoting Ian Copsey
I agree with you on the irregular triangle.

I totally disagree with the 1.2328 low being Wave (A). The drop from 1.6038 did not decline in 5 waves. Of that I am very, very certain and it's one of the clear illogicalities of traditional EW. Within that entire decline there is no alternation. It is a 3-wave decline as there is alternation in the Wave ii and Wave iv of the Wave (a) and Wave (c).

I was expecting that the recovery from 1.2042 would be in 3 waves to form a Wave (X). I suspect you are using the 1.2661-1.3711 as Wave (c). I am pretty...
So don't e Waves move in 5 waves. (1.2042- 1.3711)

I guess time will tell what is going on . My assumption is not based on just Elliott or HEW. It is the ratios that's telling a story, I believe in Fibs first then Elliott Label.

USD/CHF has inverse correlation with EU. Girl named Smilemiz was so right about her chart, yet to happen but I believe it will. Take a look at her profile charts. If that happens from the symmetry then God save the Euro!
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,654
  • Mar 3, 2013 1:11pm Mar 3, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting Raza
So don't e Waves move in 5 waves. (1.2042- 1.3711)

I guess time will tell what is going on . My assumption is not based on just Elliott or HEW. It is the ratios that's telling a story, I believe in Fibs first then Elliott Label.

USD/CHF has inverse correlation with EU. Girl named Smilemiz was so right about her chart, yet to happen but I believe it will. Take a look at her profile charts. If that happens from the symmetry then God save the Euro!
Wave ^e develops in 3-waves...

I'm not sure how you use ratios but I have never found them any use whatsoever without a structure. Traditional EW doesn't even work with ratios... quite hopeless actually. Not sure if you've looked at my blog but I have several videos about ratios in terms of the consistency of ratio clusters in the impulsive segment and across wave degrees, also on alternation and how to use the spreadsheet.

I am bearish overall in the Euro - or more accurately I'm a big Dollar bull for the next few years.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,655
  • Edited 2:44pm Mar 3, 2013 1:34pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
Wave ^e develops in 3-waves...

I'm not sure how you use ratios but I have never found them any use whatsoever without a structure. Traditional EW doesn't even work with ratios... quite hopeless actually. Not sure if you've looked at my blog but I have several videos about ratios in terms of the consistency of ratio clusters in the impulsive segment and across wave degrees, also on alternation and how to use the spreadsheet.

I am bearish overall in the Euro - or more accurately I'm a big Dollar bull for the next few years.
Hello again,

How I use ratios is another story.... But the accuracy is to the pip no guess work.

Another question as you mentioned you take 1.3711 as wave A how far your wave C is going after B completion.

I am confused from your last statement , Bearish Euro but still looking for another high.

Confuse as in how high would be satisfactory for you.

As for EW, it does not matter if it is traditional or HEW, EW is very deceiving , from my experience .


No wonder no one can label the wave with accuracy before hand. I am not sure if you understand what I am getting at. In short I will say again Fib price first then Wave label.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,656
  • Mar 3, 2013 7:29pm Mar 3, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting Raza
Hello again,

How I use ratios is another story.... But the accuracy is to the pip no guess work.

Another question as you mentioned you take 1.3711 as wave A how far your wave C is going after B completion.

I am confused from your last statement , Bearish Euro but still looking for another high.

Confuse as in how high would be satisfactory for you.

As for EW, it does not matter if it is traditional or HEW, EW is very deceiving , from my experience .


No wonder no one can label the wave with accuracy before hand. I am not sure...
I said I am bullish Dollars for the next few years. We haven't yet had confirmation of follow-through lower. Thus, until a structure has developed that points to the Euro downside below 1.2042 I'll remain looking more at the short term and, as I said earlier, assess how it develops to judge whether 1.3711 was indeed the final high.

As for EW versus HEW, the difference in the structure is not that much but the discipline of the ratios makes HEW far more robust, and from one point of view easier as it takes out extended waves, failed fifths and actually adds depth into alternation. That's how I picked the 1.3161 top (within a 20-30 pip range.) Yes, like any technique misjudgments can be made and excessive noise can cause problems but you always have the larger wave degree projections/structure to work with. Often it's possible to know in advance where a Wave (iii) will stall (within a series of projections) because you know the Wave (v) target must reach a higher degree projection. 1.2887 is one of those but also 1.2844 though I like that one less.

Yes, you CAN generate targets in advance if that is what you mean by "labelling the wave with accuracy beforehand." Certainly, you need to make sure the lower wave degree development fits into that target but a range possible. Then you use the lower degree to confirm as that must produce the same target.

As for being deceiving - yes to EW... not really with HEW as it provides a much more robust structure and the understanding of what is needed for the next move to develop. That is generally lost in EW. As I said, you'll never find any technique that will be perfect but HEW is as good as I've ever had.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,657
  • Mar 4, 2013 11:57pm Mar 4, 2013 11:57pm
WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR GOLD
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,658
  • Mar 21, 2013 5:59am Mar 21, 2013 5:59am
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GU is in corrective move Short close 200 SMA
  • #5,659
  • Mar 21, 2013 9:15pm Mar 21, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting pepesan
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GU is in corrective move Short close 200 SMA
If Cable is in a corrective mode (which I agree with) why are you labelling an impulsive structure?

It will move above the 200MA... MA's are simply distractions!
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,660
  • Mar 25, 2013 9:06am Mar 25, 2013 9:06am
Here is another chart , I made some pips already
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