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  • #161
  • Mar 4, 2013 1:44pm Mar 4, 2013 1:44pm
Quote
we do this to keep the math simple for potential subscribers and current MPC members. If a potential subscriber is trading $6,000 they will simply multiply the model account by six. An MPC member can multiple the model account to match their own, and compare live results to ensure non-slippage etc.

wow..that is the lamest excuse ever.

yea..cause our clients are too stupid to figure out the ratio if it was too big-so we'll stick with a small account.

but anyway. at least you guys are trading with real money. Some providers trade with demo.

good luck..
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #162
  • Mar 4, 2013 2:02pm Mar 4, 2013 2:02pm
Hello TPOtrader,

We value the opinion of our MPC subscribers, and in the survey 95% responded with the request to use the $1,000 account as a model account when provided the four choices of:
1) 1k
2) 5k
3) 50k
4) Greater than 50k

TPO I would assume you would appreciate our results from a statistical standpoint. It appears you are in a 23% DD from your equity high at the moment since Feb 19th, channeling sideways or a "double top" in equity as someone referenced on your thread. I have been following your thread and appreciate your humor and personality, therefore I expected you to be a bit more complimentary.

I would recommend you spend your time handling the current drawdown you are experiencing, rather than degrading the subscribers of a competitor.

MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #163
  • Mar 4, 2013 2:34pm Mar 4, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting mpc
Hello TPOtrader,

We value the opinion of our MPC subscribers, and in the survey 95% responded with the request to use the $1,000 account as a model account when provided the four choices of:
1) 1k
2) 5k
3) 50k
4) Greater than 50k

TPO I would assume you would appreciate our results from a statistical standpoint. It appears you are in a 23% DD from your equity high at the moment since Feb 19th, channeling sideways or a "double top" in equity as someone referenced on your thread. I have been following your thread and appreciate your...
i wasn't degrading anyone. I was just trying to prove a point that people ARE SMARTER than you think. To use $1000 so that your subscribers can make easy calculation was a lame excuse (do't really care what your 'survey' says). I think people would appreciate it if signal provider or pamm mananger put money that is beyond the average forex trader's investment to show "hey i'm in this like you-and if i lose-i actually would get smacked by my wife..and so on"

Also just trying to bring up themaxx's point. you need more than $1000 to subscribe to this because at about $100/month=about 1200/year, i would be slightly at loss if yo udouble my money at the end of the year with $1000 investment- and that's what you are showing on the myfxbook.
good luck. i'm done here.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #164
  • Mar 4, 2013 2:46pm Mar 4, 2013 2:46pm
TPOtrader,

Thank you for the clarification.

Yes, I wholeheartedly agree with you in the fact that $1000 is not an appropriate amount to be used when subscribing to MPC, and again this was the reason for the "model account." Again this was a survey conducted with our members, so your point being proven is irrelevant as we did not decide the dollar amount.

We are in a similar situation, as subscribers who joined you on January 30th of this year are also breakeven. Subscribers who joined you on February 19th are down 20%.

You can say they are up much more from inception, however you did not join ForexFactory until December 18th 2012. After going public with your trading, the equity curve has tapered off, so it will be interesting to see your performance in the rest of 2013, as you trade being a one trader shop.

TPOtrader Your average win is equivalent to your average loss. This provides your system zero flexibility. Once the market changes, as it always does over time, your system will potentially suffer. A system with a 2:1 reward to risk ratio or higher, can afford to be wrong 66% of the time or great and still breakeven. Your system TPOtrader needs to be right 50%, or you are in DD as you have been experiencing. I will check back up with your system in 15 months, and see if you have proven me otherwise.

The nature of the business of being a signal service provider, is to limit the drawdown, and the length of drawdown. Hopefully you will recover from your current DD.

Good luck to you as well.

MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #165
  • Mar 4, 2013 4:42pm Mar 4, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting mpc
TheMAxx in viewing your earlier comment today on another thread unrelated to us, you said "Can I make a suggestion? Don't look at the average winners/losers, look at the actual. Your closed trade losers are many times larger than your closed trade winners." We are completely opposite, as you can clearly see in the myfxbook our winners are many times larger than our losers. By your definition, we are a decent system.
Don't twist my words. I never said that was my definition of a good system, and I would never say you have a good system. Looking at your Sharpe Ratio I can see your system is not a good system.
  • #166
  • Mar 4, 2013 5:21pm Mar 4, 2013 5:21pm
TheMaxx,

I was simply quoting your suggestion from earlier today, not twisting words.

Looking at the Sharpe ratio alone, will not provide the answer to whether a system is good or not. The Sharpe ratio is much like an indicator on the chart, it is a lagging system indicator, as it runs the actual numbers through a formula. Now, it is is a helpful formula but not one to entirely judge a system from. You can see that we have a skewness in distribution, or high quick peaks. The following quote will explain why it is difficult to judge all systems using the Sharpe ratio:

The Sharpe ratio observes both systemic and idiosyncratic risks.
The returns measured can be of any frequency (i.e. daily, weekly, monthly or annually), as long as they are normally distributed, as the returns can always be annualized. Herein lies the underlying weakness of the ratio - not all asset returns are normally distributed. Abnormalities like kurtosis, fatter tails and higher peaks, or skewness on the distribution can be problematic for the ratio, as standard deviation doesn't have the same effectiveness when these problems exist. Sometimes it can be downright dangerous to use this formula when returns are not normally distributed.

However, we both know that price on a chart is more important when in comparison to an indicator. The "price" of a system is the reward to risk ratio ie average win versus average loss. These are the actual numbers, and this is what led me to agree with your comment earlier today.

MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #167
  • Mar 5, 2013 1:29am Mar 5, 2013 1:29am
Quoting mpc
I was simply quoting your suggestion from earlier today, not twisting words.
No, you twisted my words. You said my quote was my definition of a good system. I did not say that.
  • #168
  • Mar 5, 2013 3:27am Mar 5, 2013 3:27am
TraderMAXX,

We can be safe to say your comment contains elements of a good system. I was simply trying to be agreeable with a recent comment you made:

"Can I make a suggestion? Don't look at the average winners/losers, look at the actual. Your closed trade losers are many times larger than your closed trade winners."

If you disagree, you might be one of the first traders on the planet to believe a good system has the characteristic of having losers many times larger than the closed winners.

MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #169
  • Mar 5, 2013 4:18am Mar 5, 2013 4:18am
Quoting mpc
TraderMAXX,

We can be safe to say your comment contains elements of a good system. I was simply trying to be agreeable with a recent comment you made:

"Can I make a suggestion? Don't look at the average winners/losers, look at the actual. Your closed trade losers are many times larger than your closed trade winners."

If you disagree, you might be one of the first traders on the planet to believe a good system has the characteristic of having losers many times larger than the closed winners.

MPC
Yes I disagree. You can have losers many times larger than your winners if you have a high win/loss ratio. I can see you have an extremely low win/loss ratio - only 38% of your trades are winners - therefore you need your winners larger than your losers.
  • #170
  • Mar 5, 2013 4:22am Mar 5, 2013 4:22am
Quoting mpc
TPOtrader Your average win is equivalent to your average loss. This provides your system zero flexibility. Once the market changes, as it always does over time, your system will potentially suffer. A system with a 2:1 reward to risk ratio or higher, can afford to be wrong 66% of the time or great and still breakeven. Your system TPOtrader needs to be right 50%, or you are in DD as you have been experiencing. I will check back up with your system in 15 months, and see if you have proven me otherwise.
TPOtrader has invested $17910.33 in his system, and has returned +145.39% over six months.
You have invested $1000 in your system, have have returned +3.82% over three months.

You're right - let's check back in 15 months and see how both systems are performing.
  • #171
  • Mar 5, 2013 4:35am Mar 5, 2013 4:35am
Quoting TheMaxx
TPOtrader has invested $17910.33 in his system, and has returned +145.39% over six months.
You have invested $1000 in your system, have have returned +3.82% over three months.

You're right - let's check back in 15 months and see how both systems are performing.

now you got me going. where is this tpotrader system ?
  • #172
  • Mar 5, 2013 7:34am Mar 5, 2013 7:34am
Will surely try it out.Thanks a lot
  • #173
  • Mar 5, 2013 7:39am Mar 5, 2013 7:39am
TheMaxx,

First and foremost, let's look at the win/loss ratio and how it plays over time in a system. This is a highly misunderstood concept when reviewing systems.

A system that will succeed over a 10+ year lifespan must contain a 2:1 reward to risk ratio, or 2R on every trade. Why is this the case? Because in the short term I.e. 1-2 years a system could get away with having a high win rate, and low R:R.
However, once the market changes to a new cycle, and the win rate decreases, the system will ultimately suffer. This example is called a Short Volatility System as it is wildly successful in the short term, with a decreasing equity curve over time.

Our system, much like other long term sustainable systems, can handle the market changes, and still come out breakeven or positive. Why? Because we only need to be right 33% of the time. You see, our system goes back and forth from a 50% win rate to a 35% win rate. When it is near 33% we breakeven, as you have seen recently, our win rate increase, the profits come rolling in, I am referring to our recent 10% increase. Think of it this way, a coin can land on heads 3x in a row, however as the number of flips increase, the probability of successive wins above 4 greatly decreases.

Now on to TPOtrader...

TPOtrader is experiencing a DD simply because his R:R is only 1:1 at best. Reading through his thread, he adjusts his system according to past results, this is dangerous. He is down 20% from the high, and it will be very difficult for him to sustain long term without a higher R:R. We have seen many traders come and go who are just like him. Impressive results in the short term, only to blow up 1 quarter later.

The $1000 does not indicate our "investment" in our trading. It is simply the model account's balance voted on by our members.

In 6 months you will see us still here, chipping away at the market while TPOtrader is picking up the pieces from a blown system...

MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #174
  • Edited 9:09am Mar 5, 2013 8:12am | Edited 9:09am
TPOtrader is down another 5% today... He lost 33% off the high this year.

He seems to be folding, after going public with his trading in late December. Simply pointing this out, as he and TheMAXX chimed in yesterday with the desire of comparing systems.

MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #175
  • Mar 5, 2013 9:54am Mar 5, 2013 9:54am
TPOTrader was actually expecting to experience drawdown, and predicting or anticipating for it, even to the extent of screaming at the top of his lungs: "WHERE ARE YOU MR DRAWDOWN!!?!!? I AM HERE!!!!"
Quoting TPOTrader
Been getting pretty good streaks lately.

But losing streak is coming-I'm just mentally preparing for that because I know in the past I get caught up in wining streaks that when I experience losers, I would act like something's gone wrong.

My worst losing streak was in 2010 (backtested based on current rules) where I experienced around -40% drawdown. That's big, but I did recover from that.

so I'm shoutin on top of my lungs

WHERE ARE YOU MR DRAWDOWN!!?!!? I AM HERE!!!!
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #176
  • Mar 6, 2013 12:41pm Mar 6, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting mpc
TPOtrader is down another 5% today... He lost 33% off the high this year.

He seems to be folding, after going public with his trading in late December. Simply pointing this out, as he and TheMAXX chimed in yesterday with the desire of comparing systems.

MPC
hahaha....I find this funny.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #177
  • Mar 6, 2013 12:51pm Mar 6, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting pemully
hahaha....I find this funny.
Not sure if it's funny, but TPOTrader doubled his trade size in today's 3 trades to recover his losses which he managed to do. He did that previously on Feb 5th which also recovered profitably. See his Myfxbook records.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #178
  • Mar 6, 2013 1:05pm Mar 6, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting mmaker
Not sure if it's funny, but TPOTrader doubled his trade size in today's 3 trades to recover his losses which he managed to do. He did that previously on Feb 5th which also recovered profitably. See his Myfxbook records.
wow! didn't know that. it'll bite sooner or later hope he's well prepared for it.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #179
  • Edited 7:37pm Mar 6, 2013 2:56pm | Edited 7:37pm
A wise man once told me that increasing your position size with the intent purpose of making back losses is like picking up nickels in front of a steam roller...

Any professional speculator understands that position size should only be increased when winning, playing with the "market's" money. In this case TPO was gambling with his subscriber's accounts. Not a fair thing to do for the people relying on his signals...

Imagine if the trade went south. With TPO's system he trades a 1:1 reward to risk ratio, and it takes 2 trades to make a profit after a losing trade with his system. If a doubled position loses, it will now take him 3 trades to get back above water. Or will he double again? When does it end...

I think we all know how this will play out in the end. Statistics are meant to help us, but when a person gambles with the law of larger numbers, inevitably they get burned. TPO's system is holding a revolver with one bullet in the chamber, it's now a matter of time when the damage occurs.

Maybe I'll share a fun parable with his thread

MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #180
  • Mar 6, 2013 9:55pm Mar 6, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting mpc
Any professional speculator understands that position size should only be increased when winning, playing with the "market's" money.
I'm afraid that's a myth.

Simply being ahead (and "playing with the market's money") is not justification for increasing position size, unless you have statistical proof of autocorrelation (non-random clustering of wins and losses). Otherwise your position size should be dictated by probable market behavior, rather than your recent P/L, which the market takes no cognizance of.

If you increase your risk, then obviously you'll either win more or lose more, on these positions. Their outcome is dependent solely on the accuracy of your entries and exits, relative to the subsequent price movement in your chosen trading horizon. Your recent P/L is irrelevant.

If you're pyramiding merely because you're in profit, then for the subsequent position(s) to be justifiable, they must be on-balance profitable in their own right, otherwise they reduce eventual bottom line, regardless of whether they're being 'funded' by prior wins or not.

Viewing recent P/L as being more important than historical P/L makes no mathematical sense. All trades, historical or recent, contribute to eventual bottom line.
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