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Mechanical Trading - Is it possible?

  • #41
  • Mar 4, 2013 7:56am Mar 4, 2013 7:56am
Developing something mechanical, where the human factor gets ereased was also something I've experimented with but didnt come up with a satisfying system.
I was looking for it for the same reason as you do, not enough consistancy trading lower TF PA.

I however currently keep going with the PA approach but I trade only E/U, with the plan to get an eye for the movements.

Anyway, I'll follow your thread and wish you all the best on your endavour.
Thoughts are things
  • #42
  • Mar 4, 2013 8:30am Mar 4, 2013 8:30am
Quoting Quezoy
Developing something mechanical, where the human factor gets ereased was also something I've experimented with but didnt come up with a satisfying system.
I was looking for it for the same reason as you do, not enough consistancy trading lower TF PA.

I however currently keep going with the PA approach but I trade only E/U, with the plan to get an eye for the movements.

Anyway, I'll follow your thread and wish you all the best on your endavour.
Hi Quezoy,

Thanks for your good wishes, which TF are you now trading PA on?

I've really got tired of looking at the shorter TFs, too much screen time, and you've got to time your entries so you are in tune with the higher TFs anyway so why not just watch the 4h charts for PA and trade from there. That was my reasoning anyway
  • #43
  • Mar 4, 2013 8:37am Mar 4, 2013 8:37am
Quoting stevepatt
Hi Quezoy,

Thanks for your good wishes, which TF are you now trading PA on?

I've really got tired of looking at the shorter TFs, too much screen time, and you've got to time your entries so you are in tune with the higher TFs anyway so why not just watch the 4h charts for PA and trade from there. That was my reasoning anyway
I have an M5, M15, H1 and H4 chart always open and look for entries on the first two.
It seems like I've found out that I need to do actively something, I dont feel that comfortable, entering a trade and waiting a few hours or days for it to develope. I also dont like large SL's.

Its a personal thing in the end, what kind of trader you are. Though I have to admit that I've changed my TF quite a lot of times. But it seems I've arrived now. Maybe
Thoughts are things
  • #44
  • Mar 4, 2013 1:17pm Mar 4, 2013 1:17pm
Trade No. 20 on EUR/GBP short.

I'm going to keep a close eye on this pair because in back test it's performance wasn't very strong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4th Mar 13 EUR:GBP 4h Chart.png Size: 139 KB
  • #45
  • Edited 2:06pm Mar 4, 2013 1:38pm | Edited 2:06pm
Hey Steve
I am currently using this system and find that it can be very profitable especially on the higher timeframes so i am happy u stumbled on it too. For my money management n what i generally advise others as an awesome way to retain profits and milk d trend as much as possible is to have a first tp that is d the same or just a lil higher than sl then when that target is hit close 80% of the trade and let the rest run. I usually let mine run until price closes back over the trend magic in the opposite direction.

For example, if i am trading on the h4 timeframe and i have a 50 pip sl and trading at 1 lot size and first tp is 50pips, when price reaches that point i close out 80% which is 8*50=$400 . Which then leaves 0.2 lots to continue running. This way if price runs to another 50pips thats an extra $200 or even $400 if the trade runs to 200pips doubling the $400 you already pocketed. And if that didnt happen and worst case market turns around and hits your sl that will now only be 2*50=$100 which still leaves you with $300 profit from the entire trade. This type of mm can be used with any timeframe and any trend following system and it can truly be amazing for your account. Hope it can be of some benefit to you and others too
  • #46
  • Mar 4, 2013 2:19pm Mar 4, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting stevepatt
Trade No. 9 on AUD/JPY short. I missed a trade setup here last week I was asleep in the bath when it triggered same thing on EUR/JPY you can't get them all I guess.

Stopped out on AUD/JPY for (-1R).

This one got to +34 pips before turning around but my plan is to move my SL to BE after I'm up the same distance as my SL, which is 50 pips.

Once you have a plan it's important to stick with it, if you don't you had better keep detailed results so you know the difference between keeping to the plan and not keeping to it. I'm sure that the times I have interfered with a trade and not just let it run to my pre-trade plan I come out much worse off.
  • #47
  • Mar 4, 2013 2:25pm Mar 4, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting cristol86
Hey Steve
I am currently using this system and find that it can be very profitable especially on the higher timeframes so i am happy u stumbled on it too. For my money management n what i generally advise others as an awesome way to retain profits and milk d trend as much as possible is to have a first tp that is d the same or just a lil higher than sl then when that target is hit close 80% of the trade and let the rest run. I usually let mine run until price closes back over the trend magic in the opposite direction.

For example, if...
Hi Cristol,

I have looked at this on the 15m TF and there are times when it works well and others when there is far to much chop, I like to stick with the 4h charts.

As far as money management goes it very much a personnel thing, I'm getting on well with exiting 25% at 50 100 and 150 pips and allowing the last 25% to run after tightening the SL.
  • #48
  • Mar 4, 2013 2:41pm Mar 4, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting stevepatt
Hi Cristol,

I have looked at this on the 15m TF and there are times when it works well and others when there is far to much chop, I like to stick with the 4h charts.

As far as money management goes it very much a personnel thing, I'm getting on well with exiting 25% at 50 100 and 150 pips and allowing the last 25% to run after tightening the SL.
You are correct Steve. I do find you have to be very careful on the lower timeframes with this and find that i am gravitating more and more to the h4 timeframe as well. If your mm method is working awesome for you then i am glad and thats all that matters. I just shared mine so that anyone looking for another good mm method to trade this system with can use it as well. I was not the original creator of it and when i found it helped me a lot.

Cristol
  • #49
  • Mar 4, 2013 4:44pm Mar 4, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting stevepatt
Up Date Close of Markets on Friday 22nd Feb


At the end of last week I was in three open positions

(GBP/USD Trade 1.5R Return with 25% still running and currently 186 pips up 0.9R)

(NZD/USD Trade 0.75R Return with 50% still running and currently 35.8 pips up 0.35R)

I entered a new trade on 22nd Feb AUD/USD which currently stands at (-14.9) pips (-0.30R)



I exited the AUD/USD trade for +110 pips +0.55R for a total return of +1.62R
  • #50
  • Mar 6, 2013 12:15am Mar 6, 2013 12:15am
Trade No. 11 AUD/USD Long

I set an alarm to go off 5m before the 4h candles turns over; I have turned the 4am (3am GMT) alarm off because I haven't been able to get back to sleep, that's why the entry was slightly late.

I'm not going to be around to trade the 12pm and 4pm setups for a while because of work commitments.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Mar 13 AUD:USD 4h Chart.png Size: 145 KB
  • #51
  • Mar 6, 2013 1:43pm Mar 6, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting stevepatt
Trade No. 11 AUD/USD Long

I set an alarm to go off 5m before the 4h candles turns over; I have turned the 4am (3am GMT) alarm off because I haven't been able to get back to sleep, that's why the entry was slightly late.

I'm not going to be around to trade the 12pm and 4pm setups for a while because of work commitments.

AUD/USD Trade hit it's SL (-1R)
  • #52
  • Mar 7, 2013 12:30am Mar 7, 2013 12:30am
Trade No: 12 AUD/USD Short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7th Mar 13 AUD:USD 4h Chart.png Size: 144 KB
  • #53
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:17am Mar 7, 2013 1:17am
Quoting stevepatt
Trade No. 10 on EUR/GBP short.

I'm going to keep a close eye on this pair because in back test it's performance wasn't very strong.

Stop Loss hit (-1R)
  • #54
  • Mar 7, 2013 12:04pm Mar 7, 2013 12:04pm
Quoting stevepatt
Trade No: 12 AUD/USD Short
Stop Loss hit (-1R)
  • #55
  • Mar 7, 2013 12:06pm Mar 7, 2013 12:06pm
Trade No: 13 AUD/USD Long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7th Mar AUD:USD 4h Chart.png Size: 138 KB
  • #56
  • Mar 8, 2013 5:09am Mar 8, 2013 5:09am

  1. Trade No: 13 AUD/USD Long

Shouldn't go long on AUD/JPY yesterday as well btw?


//Raspie

  • #57
  • Mar 8, 2013 12:36pm Mar 8, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting stevepatt
Trade No: 13 AUD/USD Long
Stop Loss hit (-1R)
  • #58
  • Mar 8, 2013 1:20pm Mar 8, 2013 1:20pm
Update Close of Markets for Friday 8th March 2013


Entered one AUD/JPY sell trade (-1R)

Entered one EUR/GBP sell trade (-1R)

Entered two AUD/USD buy trades (-2R)

Entered one AUD/USD sell trade (-1R)

USD/CAD Trade is still running with 25% in tact and at +241 pips



Since opening this journal I have entered eight trades.

11/02/13 USD/JPY Buy Result +0.87R averaging 54.4 pips

11/02/13 GBP/USD Sell Result +2.97R averaging 148.5 pips

12/02/13 EUR/JPY Buy Result (-1R) losing (-50) pips

13/02/13 NZD/USD Buy Result +0.75R averaging 50 pips

15/02/13 USD/CAD Buy Result +1.5R averaging 100 pips with 25% still running 1.25R +257 pips

22/02/13 AUD/USD Sell Result +1.62R averaging 80 pips

26/02/13 EUR/GBP Sell Result (-1R) losing (-50) pips

01/03/13 EUR/GBP Sell Result (-1R) losing (-50) pips

04/03/13 AUS/JPY Sell Result (-1R) losing 50 pips

04/03/13 EUR/GBP Sell Result (-1R) losing 50 pips

06/03/13 AUD/USD Buy Result (-1R) losing 50 pips

07/03/13 AUD/USD Sell Result (-1R) losing 50 pips

07/03/13 AUD/USD Buy Result (-1R) losing 50 pips


So after four weeks of trading if all trades where liquidated at this point I would be +0.96R for the 13 trades I have taken. I have been testing this since 23/01/13 and have taken 32 trades altogether with a success rate 0f 31% and a return of +7.20R
  • #59
  • Edited 2:28pm Mar 8, 2013 2:00pm | Edited 2:28pm
The past two weeks trading haven't been good (-7R)

With work commitments this last week I have missed some profitable trades on GBP/USD and USD/JPY both peaking at over 200 pips . That's the problem with this type of trading you need to be able to take all the trade setups.

I have been doing more back testing on this and I can see EUR/GBP-NZD/USD don't have good results with this method.

AUD/USD is good when trending but the transition from short to long and long to short isn't smooth hence the reason for three stop outs in a row. This also shows up in the history of this pair.

I'm going to drop AUD/JPY also because the JPY pairs move pretty much in unison and the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY pairs do well in back testing.

Going forward with this I'm only going to be looking at EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/JPY EUR/JPY I will be taking trades even if they contradict each other for example one trade Buying the dollar and the next Selling the dollar.

If I had taken every valid trade on these 6 pairs I would be at +31R for the year so far. These kind of results show up in past history as well if anyone is interested use the indicators to do some back testing of your own never trade without doing your own testing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8th Mar 13 GBP:USD 4h Chart.png Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 8th mar 13 USD:JPY 4h Chart.png Size: 96 KB
  • #60
  • Mar 14, 2013 7:58am Mar 14, 2013 7:58am
Great results!

I specially like new settings with MAMethod = 2. Much less "false entries" this way.
Have you thought about reentries? I mean when you've exited all your positions and trend still continues. I've found more than a couple of those cases. As a suggestion you could reentry when SuperTrend+Ma_alerts2 change it's color matching BB_MACD's color.


//Raspie
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