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Beyond the Candles

  • #1,061
  • Feb 27, 2013 8:21am Feb 27, 2013 8:21am
AUDUSD-part 1

The P reached a very important level and in overall image it is stuck within the triangle. We don't have to jump in, because this is purely suicide, for those who are allready short it is time for MM. All we have to do is to wait the P to close bellow the level+ RET+ seller confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 47 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,062
  • Feb 27, 2013 9:52am Feb 27, 2013 9:52am
AUDUSD-part2

As I said many times, in order to recognize the RM we have to be able to recognise the DBs/ DTs...let's take a look at the AUDUSD W chart and see how a very tecnical interpretation allowed us to short this pair .

After the P had a bearish SW and a bullish one to the R level, the sellers put the PB as the first sellers confirmation so from now on we have to look to short it till the S level where the bullish SW started from.
After the PB the sellers put an IB as the second confirmation followed by a DBHLC as a third confirmation. We notice that the small RM is just a part of the big RM and these elements could help us to identify the 2 TGs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 2.png Size: 58 KB
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  • #1,063
  • Feb 27, 2013 2:24pm Feb 27, 2013 2:24pm
'the sellers put the PB as the first sellers confirmation so from now on we have to look to short it'

Sorry to ask a dumb question, but could somebody please confirm the correct level you would have considered safe to short the AUD/USD on that chart?

Many thanks
  • #1,064
  • Feb 28, 2013 1:45am Feb 28, 2013 1:45am
The first level where we could have shorted it is the R (1.0575) given by the previous SWs in RM, meanwhile the second opprtunity was the 2DPB @ 1.05 BRN !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,065
  • Feb 28, 2013 10:58am Feb 28, 2013 10:58am
hello guys!
  • #1,066
  • Feb 28, 2013 11:23am Feb 28, 2013 11:23am
Quoting magico31
hello guys!
Hello!
  • #1,067
  • Mar 3, 2013 3:25am Mar 3, 2013 3:25am
Quoting dfumagalli
The next step is for me to remind you what's this thread is about: "Beyond the candles".

Now, this might sound like an odd reply but it's really the best I can give you.

Now let's analyse how and why.


. I will skip the fact that you can draw a wedge pattern telling you where price will go in the rest of this year. Let's stick to the immediate instead.

It will involve some tecniques beyond the current thread scope though.

NZDUSD

after some struggle at the 0.4850 level the price droped and broke a long term TL.

we do have significant support levels ahead but the whole picture in all TF is pointing downwords.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud1.gif Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud12.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud123.gif Size: 38 KB
trading is not an addiction. it's a profession.
  • #1,068
  • Mar 3, 2013 11:16am Mar 3, 2013 11:16am
P is retracing back to H&S neckline. Time to look for RT in D to enter long ?



Quoting fxgroup
EURAUD

The W chart is what I am interested more because of the H&S pattern....now the P is doing a RET on the NL (neck line)'s pattern...it will be very interesting to watch it !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud_weekly.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #1,069
  • Mar 3, 2013 12:17pm Mar 3, 2013 12:17pm
H&S in weekly EURUSD, P touching neckline. Is my interpretation of H&S in W EURUSD correct?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_weekly.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #1,070
  • Mar 3, 2013 3:37pm Mar 3, 2013 3:37pm
Quoting sodiska
P is retracing back to H&S neckline. Time to look for RT in D to enter long ?
We will keep an eye on it my friend, we certainly do !...nice chart...keep it simple !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,071
  • Mar 3, 2013 4:23pm Mar 3, 2013 4:23pm
hi guys, fxgroup, dfumagalli,
I still have some issues finding the "right" levels to set on the chart. Here is an example AUD/CAD. We have an uptrend with a RM on M. On W we have the same RM, but with different S and R levels. Right now the price is in the middle of nowhere... Either way we go to the S or R of the RM, but to which once - M or W? Of course on the chart I can draw about a dozen lines... What do you think, am I missing something or my logic is wrong?
All comments are welcome.
BR
plamen
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 280 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.jpg Size: 302 KB
  • #1,072
  • Edited 4:21am Mar 4, 2013 4:08am | Edited 4:21am
Quoting peichini
hi guys, fxgroup, dfumagalli,
I still have some issues finding the "right" levels to set on the chart. Here is an example AUD/CAD. We have an uptrend with a RM on M. On W we have the same RM, but with different S and R levels. Right now the price is in the middle of nowhere... Either way we go to the S or R of the RM, but to which once - M or W? Of course on the chart I can draw about a dozen lines... What do you think, am I missing something or my logic is wrong?
All comments are welcome.
BR
plamen
Two vital comments.

1) Remove that grid at once. It's totally confusing, can't read the price and it will adversely affect you to have those rogue lines when you do your analysis.

2) Post charts that can actually be read. Yours is huge yet the protagonist, current price, is all compressed in 1 fifth of the real estate. It will negatively affect you to not show easily read price.


More comments:

3) Change the candles colors to something that makes immediate to eyeball bullish and bearish candles

4) Crop away all that unneded Windows interface and platform icons etc.

5) You want sharp, crisp, "immedately jumping to the eye" price, because it plays a major role into seeing the important levels. Yet you might want to avoid eye burning contrast.

6) Expecially after a bit of training, the correct lines will "jump to the eye" quicker than the others. It's expecially important to understand that the levels have to make sense. A lot of times they match range markets the most important supports and resistance levels.

7) Watch my video (it should be right in the previous page), it tells how to place lines. It tells the priority for placing the lines as well.

8) Look at the two attached pictures.

The first shows that a new RM was in the making. We have those large bars "defining" the RM dimensions (the technical name for them is "controlling bars") but also a level cutting that RM in two halves. That level comes from that important inversion swing to the left of the chart. The fact it also cuts the current RM in two halves and the placement of the old swing vs this middle line both have names and meaning. It's advanced concepts though, so I won't flood you with tons of confusing information. FXGroup might explain them one day.

The second shows how it's important to read and understand price before putting down lines and rectangles.
The RM evolved into a bigger self (those "extensions" too have a meaning) but the original monthly lines stayed. Why? Because price hit them other times in the past as well and also hit them in the last bars. They are still statistically more relevant.
The new boundaries for now just define a larger RM. They do play an important role for the current RM and one day price might return to those extensions levels so often that those levels will become more statistically relevant than the current ones. But as of now, they don't, so we keep the old lines.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-04_AUDCAD_M_01.png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-04_AUDCAD_M_02.png Size: 32 KB
  • #1,073
  • Mar 4, 2013 4:12am Mar 4, 2013 4:12am
[quote=haimber;6486938]
Quote
NZDUSD

after some struggle at the 0.4850 level the price droped and broke a long term TL.

we do have significant support levels ahead but the whole picture in all TF is pointing downwords.
I'm looking to short it too, but the P is into a zone where in the past we have seen many dojies and a lot of bullish reactions folloew by sellers and for me this are information of difficult MM.
The next TG is 0.80 BRN with a close bellow it, 0.7335 becomes the next important TG.
The close bellow the long time term TL is a clear information.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU.png Size: 43 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,074
  • Edited 9:50am Mar 4, 2013 6:00am | Edited 9:50am
in my opinion, the price now is stuck between 0.8351 and 0.82. and if we want to short it, the best place could be near 0.8351, the confluence between static resistance level and upper trend line. any other places could be too dangerous and the order could not be held for a long time. so now we'd better wait for the retrace and the signal there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-04_19-58_FxPro.jpg Size: 150 KB
  • #1,075
  • Mar 4, 2013 6:39am Mar 4, 2013 6:39am
Quoting outman
in my opinion, the price now is stuck between 0.8351 and 0.82. and if we want to short it, the best place could be near 0.8351, the confluence between static resistance level and upper trend line. any other places could be too dangerous and the order could be held for a long time. so now we'd better wait for the retrace and the signal there.
Well spoted the rounded zone....let's read those zones beyond the candles....all the circle zones show us many dojies and a lot of RMs with high volatility..so that means that between 0.80 and 0.85 we have a zone with tough fights between buyers and sellers....and is a perfect zone to stay out safetly.
In addition we notice that bellow 0.80 is less traffic and less S/R levels and this is a very useful information regards the MM.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU.png Size: 57 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,076
  • Mar 5, 2013 4:23pm Mar 5, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting dfumagalli
Two vital comments.

1) Remove that grid at once. It's totally confusing, can't read the price and it will adversely affect you to have those rogue lines when you do your analysis.

2) Post charts that can actually be read. Yours is huge yet the protagonist, current price, is all compressed in 1 fifth of the real estate. It will negatively affect you to not show easily read price.


More comments:

3) Change the candles colors to something that makes immediate to eyeball bullish and bearish candles

4) Crop away all that...
Hi dfumagalli,
thanks for the comments and directions my friend - grid removed and chart changed will follow all directions for sure. I've watched your video, and will watch it again, just still can not always spot/pick the most impostant levels, I guess it will take some more practice. levels on your chart make more sense, good thing is that 2 of 3 levels comply with yours, more or less. like fxgroup my wife gave birth to my daughter 2 months ago and I don't get much screen time lately .
sorry if my questions/charts look annoying/stupid, just trying to learn, and probably not the best student.
will post new charts as soon as I get some time.
thanks,
BR
plamen
  • #1,077
  • Mar 6, 2013 7:19pm Mar 6, 2013 7:19pm
Quoting peichini
Hi dfumagalli,
thanks for the comments and directions my friend - grid removed and chart changed will follow all directions for sure. I've watched your video, and will watch it again, just still can not always spot/pick the most impostant levels, I guess it will take some more practice. levels on your chart make more sense, good thing is that 2 of 3 levels comply with yours, more or less. like fxgroup my wife gave birth to my daughter 2 months ago and I don't get much screen time lately .
sorry if my questions/charts look annoying/stupid,...
Hello,
first of all congratulations on your daugther birth! That's some accomplishment that drawing lines on a chart don't even compare to.

As for not being a best student, all those who contribute with their charts are best students!
Who does is who goes ahead, don't worry if there's some line going funky, this thread is to learn not to prove to be a "pro" already.
  • #1,078
  • Mar 7, 2013 11:14am Mar 7, 2013 11:14am
Quoting sodiska
P is retracing back to H&S neckline. Time to look for RT in D to enter long ?
The truth time !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,079
  • Mar 7, 2013 11:41am Mar 7, 2013 11:41am
Hi FxGroup, AUDNZD looks interesting. The M chart shows a long PB tail and 1.2200 plays an important S. W chart shows P going back in to triangle. So we stay away until we know for sure WPD next. Is my analysis right on this?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd_monthly.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd_weekly.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #1,080
  • Mar 8, 2013 1:13am Mar 8, 2013 1:13am
Hi, can u explain how this is trigger? I looking at D chart, before this, 26.Feb.2013 also a good time to enter?


Quoting fxgroup
The truth time !
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