VIX - Time to buy? | Forex Factory

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VIX - Time to buy?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 23, 2013 6:47am Feb 23, 2013 6:47am
With S&P500 at such a ridiculous central bank induced price, I think the VIX is a great buy and hold from these levels. You never sell it underwater. You just wait for it to pop.


And it will pop.


What do you all think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #2
  • Feb 23, 2013 10:45am Feb 23, 2013 10:45am
I would buy too. Or wait for another top at S&P500 and get long on VIX ..
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #3
  • Feb 23, 2013 10:30pm Feb 23, 2013 10:30pm
Quoting SugarPink
I would buy too. Or wait for another top at S&P500 and get long on VIX ..
The VIX might be going through a regime change. I think everyone should check this out.
  • #4
  • Feb 24, 2013 11:36am Feb 24, 2013 11:36am
Quoting split_unit
The VIX might be going through a regime change. I think everyone should check this out.
Good read. Thanks

If this goes to 2005-2007 levels it would be so interesting to see
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #5
  • Feb 25, 2013 12:08am Feb 25, 2013 12:08am
Quoting SugarPink
Good read. Thanks

If this goes to 2005-2007 levels it would be so interesting to see
A repeat of that scenario seems likely, however, a repeat of the 2007-2008 great recession won't occur any time soon as central banks embark on the largest equity bubble ever. I think equities should be a part of everyone's portfolio, period.
  • #6
  • Feb 25, 2013 2:44am Feb 25, 2013 2:44am
What do you buy as a proxy for VIX? An ETF/ETN like VXX? They lose value very quickly (and even in sideways markets) due to contango so unless you time it just right you will lose money over time.
  • #7
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:11am Feb 25, 2013 10:11am
Quoting split_unit
A repeat of that scenario seems likely, however, a repeat of the 2007-2008 great recession won't occur any time soon as central banks embark on the largest equity bubble ever. I think equities should be a part of everyone's portfolio, period.
It will occur but don't bet on it just yet.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #8
  • Feb 25, 2013 8:47pm Feb 25, 2013 8:47pm
Yeah so I bought VXX at $22.05... its up at $25.56 now

Today was pretty damn volatile... (EURJPY anyone?)




Now the only question is how long to hold this thing.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #9
  • Feb 25, 2013 8:54pm Feb 25, 2013 8:54pm
Quoting Betard
What do you buy as a proxy for VIX? An ETF/ETN like VXX? They lose value very quickly (and even in sideways markets) due to contango so unless you time it just right you will lose money over time.
When it pops 3-5 fold you easily make back the decay. But yes decent timing is helpful.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #10
  • Feb 26, 2013 10:09am Feb 26, 2013 10:09am
VIX

and

SILVER



YUM
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #11
  • Feb 26, 2013 10:52am Feb 26, 2013 10:52am
good! yeah the timing to buy was good!
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #12
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:11am Feb 26, 2013 11:11am
Quoting SugarPink
good! yeah the timing to buy was good!
indeed

hope this 5 year silver trendline holds up
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #13
  • Feb 26, 2013 12:25pm Feb 26, 2013 12:25pm
are you aware of what is happening? people are panicking lol
drops in order o 3% 2% per day on euro exchanges, its just not normal.

I know somewhere in the line people are going to calm down and start buy back..
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #14
  • Feb 26, 2013 1:16pm Feb 26, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting SugarPink
are you aware of what is happening? people are panicking lol
drops in order o 3% 2% per day on euro exchanges, its just not normal.

I know somewhere in the line people are going to calm down and start buy back..
Yeah its pretty bad, EURJPY yesterday was like... wtf? almost 700 pips in less than 24 hours.


I'm buying this dip. Long EU from 3045

It will probably fall again though. The next dip will give a better bounce I think.


Before EURUSD even hit 3500 I called for 3700 to 3850 and then a retest of 3000.

Too bad I didn't trade it, LMAO!


How are your trades??
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #15
  • Feb 26, 2013 1:47pm Feb 26, 2013 1:47pm
Yeah my view was to go more than 1,37 maybe reach 1,40. I wanted to sell at 1,40
I thought that people were more excited. Didn't gauge the emotion very well on that one. And Draghi talked it down.. so no chance.
Then I bough low, and didnt close before italy elections, i was sleeping xD lol so i lost money on this moves.. its okay though. My logic was right, I was just sleeping so I could not take action


Now im long on euro too, long term. 1,3050 .. and see what will happen, I want to see people calm down.. I think i need to see S&P going up for 2 days again before this panicks goes off.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #16
  • Feb 28, 2013 8:09am Feb 28, 2013 8:09am
are you day trader?
  • #17
  • Feb 28, 2013 1:04pm Feb 28, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting nino110265
are you day trader?
Sometimes
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #18
  • Feb 28, 2013 4:22pm Feb 28, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting nino110265
are you day trader?
yeah for Forex mostly day trading. Stock trades are mostly buy and hold for months at a time.


Should have taken my 25% profit (at 27.50 vxx) and re entered after it dipped to 23.

But I'm hoping for around 30 then I'll take the quick gain and run.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #19
  • Feb 28, 2013 4:40pm Feb 28, 2013 4:40pm
@Rag2RichesFX

Look at this forex play.
Italy doesnt have govermnent and no one knows what is going to happen next.

a) Italy 10 year bond yield is 4% (it went up to 5% in day of election)
b) 7% is when OMT will be activited and all Draghi talk wont be talk anymore.
c) Will FANG(finland germany) countries be againts OMT on Italy without a govermnent to apply any reforms?

The more the time without govermnent -> more uncertain -> rising yield -> OMT activation ->
if c is true
-> more euro area uncertain (contagious) -> VIX explode up.
if c is percived false
-> VIX down.

So things to watch:
http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...ear-bond-yield

Source of the play: https://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2...alian-election
edit: its still a long term play anyway.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #20
  • Last Post: Feb 28, 2013 5:18pm Feb 28, 2013 5:18pm
Typically anytime there is a strong dollar rally, the VIX pops

Everything is more or less tied to the dollar.

If EU goes bad, US dollar goes up, all stocks go down, and the VIX pops


Another reason to hold VIX atm is U.S. Fiscal Cliff once again
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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