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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #441
  • Edited 11:28am Jun 9, 2006 11:05am | Edited 11:28am
Friday 6/9/2006 12:00 ET

EUR/USD will continue to fall until it reaches somewhere in the range 1.2550 to 1.2500. There is also support at 1.2526.

_______________________________________________________

Earlier prediction:

Friday 6/9/2006 6:45 ET

EUR/USD will descend from approximately its current price of 1.2665, although it could pop up to about 1.2700 the next time GBP/USD rises, and then it will descend to 1.2570, and even lower depending on the figures that are released later this morning by the US Trade Department.

Here is what DailyFX says, "A Bottom Here or 100 Points Lower Will Depend on Trade Balance"

We don't think that the trade figures matter - the price is already fated to fall to 1.2570. But whether it goes further depends on the content of the news.
  • #442
  • Edited 12:14pm Jun 9, 2006 11:19am | Edited 12:14pm
Friday 6/9/2006 12:00 ET

TS #97

Sell AUD/USD at market price of .7495 to .7500

Stop is .7513

Target #1 is .7360
Target #2 is .7300

Risk is 17 pips (entry of .7500)

Reward is 136 pips (T#1)
Reward is 196 pips (T#2)

Reward : Risk ratio is 8.0 to 1 (T#1)
Reward : Risk ratio is 11.5 to 1 (T#2)

For research purposes only.
  • #443
  • Jun 9, 2006 1:27pm Jun 9, 2006 1:27pm
Friday 6/9/2006 14:15 ET

TS #98

Buy USD/CAD at of 1.1042

 Stop is 1.1029

Target #1 is 1.1142
Target #2 is 1.1196

Risk is 17 pips

Reward is 95 pips (T#1)
Reward is 149 pips (T#2)

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.6 to 1 (T#1)
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1 (T#2)

For research purposes only.
  • #444
  • Jun 11, 2006 3:23am Jun 11, 2006 3:23am
your an inspiration for us all itme , Keep on the good work
money speaks all languages mine only says goodbye
  • #445
  • Jun 11, 2006 12:59pm Jun 11, 2006 12:59pm
Quoting itme
Friday 6/9/2006 12:00 ET

TS #97

Sell AUD/USD at market price of .7495 to .7500

Stop is .7513

Target #1 is .7360
Target #2 is .7300

Risk is 17 pips (entry of .7500)

Reward is 136 pips (T#1)
Reward is 196 pips (T#2)

Reward : Risk ratio is 8.0 to 1 (T#1)
Reward : Risk ratio is 11.5 to 1 (T#2)

For research purposes only.
My view is that the taget is too ambitious.Aussie is going to go up as Usd/Jpy is coming down in next two days.Your trade has chances of being stopped out.
Good Luck
  • #446
  • Edited 9:01am Jun 12, 2006 8:30am | Edited 9:01am
Monday 6/12/2006 9:30 ET

Re-Entry TS #98 Buy USD/CAD at market price 1.1000 - 1.1010

Stop loss is 1.0989

Risk is max. 25 pips
____________________________________________________

Original Trade Signal:

Friday 6/9/2006 14:15 ET

TS #98
Buy USD/CAD at of 1.1042
 Stop is 1.1029
Target #1 is 1.1142
Target #2 is 1.1196
Risk is 17 pips
Reward is 95 pips (T#1)
Reward is 149 pips (T#2)
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.6 to 1 (T#1)
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1 (T#2)

For research purposes only.
  • #447
  • Jun 12, 2006 8:34am Jun 12, 2006 8:34am
What is the SL on this trade?



Quoting itme
Re-Entry TS #98 Buy USD/CAD at market price 1.1000 - 1.1010

____________________________________________________

Original Trade Signal:

Friday 6/9/2006 14:15 ET

TS #98
Buy USD/CAD at of 1.1042
Stop is 1.1029
Target #1 is 1.1142
Target #2 is 1.1196
Risk is 17 pips
Reward is 95 pips (T#1)
Reward is 149 pips (T#2)
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.6 to 1 (T#1)
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1 (T#2)

For research purposes only.
  • #448
  • Jun 12, 2006 8:58am Jun 12, 2006 8:58am
Monday 6/12/2006 9:00 ET

Althouth TS#69 did not get stopped out, it did a loop and is back to the entry price. So anyone who exited and took profit of up to 75 pips, or who failed to enter originally, can re-enter at 1.8450 to 1.8465.

Stop is still 1.8491

Targets are the same as below.

_____________________________________________________-

Original Trade Signal:

Friday 6/9/2006 4:15 ET
TS#96 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8458 - 1.8460
Stop is set at 1.8491
Target #1 is 1.8300
Target #2 is 1.8250
Risk is max. 37 pips
Reward is min. 154 pips (T#1), 204 pips (T#2)
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.2 to 1 (T#1) and 5.5 to 1 (T#2)
Confidence level: 80% for Target #1

For research purposes only.
  • #449
  • Jun 12, 2006 9:13am Jun 12, 2006 9:13am
So what is the stop on the new USDCAD entry?
  • #450
  • Jun 12, 2006 9:25am Jun 12, 2006 9:25am
Monday 6/12/2006 10:15 ET

Re-Entry Opportunity TS#89 Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 143.95 to 144.05

Stop is 144.12

Target #1 is 143.20

Target #2 is 143.00

Target #3 is 142.70

Risk is max. 20 pips

Reward (min.) at Target #3 is 122 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 6.1 to 1 (Target #3)

_________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Friday 6/9/2006 6:10 ET

TS#89 Sell EUR/JPY - a picture perfect trade - almost!

On Wednesday we issued trade signal TS#89 to sell EUR/JPY at 145.16. It subsequently went down to meet our first three targets almost precisely in sequence on each pulse downwards, ending precisely at our Target #3. Let's see if the action over the next 24 hours takes it down to our fourth target at 143.24.
The only problem - it rose to 30 pips over our tight stop before going to hit each of our targets in sequence!
We saw it rise to the high of 145.67, but didn't get a chance to prepare a re-entry instruction. We shorted it however near to the top, and made a tidy profit.
Upon re-examination, our two models did predict the higher high of this trend before the reversal, however it took hours of careful analysis to confirm the proper trend reversal predicted price level, time which we could not invest in the original analysis.
By the way, if one sold EUR/JPY right now at 144.27 with a stop at 144.53, the likelihood of hitting the Target #3 of 143.24 before hitting the stop would be quite good. The reward : risk ratio is about 3.3 to 1

________________________________________________--

Original Trade signal:

Wednesday 6/7/2006 10:30 ET
TS#89 - EUR/JPY is presenting an ideal selling opportunity right now at 145.16
Stop is 145.38
Target #1 is 144.50
Target #2 is 144.12
Target #3 is 143.84
Target #4 is 143.24
Risk is only about 25 pips
Reward for Target #4 is 189 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 7.6 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #451
  • Jun 12, 2006 9:44am Jun 12, 2006 9:44am
Monday 6/12/2006 10:15 ET

Updated Prediction for EUR/USD - bottom (reversal point) of 124.75 (current price is 126.05) This means that EUR/USD is likely to descend another 130 pips.

_____________________________________________

Previous predictions:

Updated Prediction for EUR/USD - more downwards movement
Friday 6/9/2006 12:00 ET
EUR/USD will continue to fall until it reaches somewhere in the range 1.2550 to 1.2500. There is also support at 1.2526.

Earlier prediction:
Friday 6/9/2006 6:45 ET
EUR/USD will descend from approximately its current price of 1.2665, although it could pop up to about 1.2700 the next time GBP/USD rises, and then it will descend to 1.2570, and even lower depending on the figures that are released later this morning by the US Trade Department.
  • #452
  • Edited 11:13am Jun 12, 2006 10:49am | Edited 11:13am
Monday 6/12/2006 11:15 ET

EUR/CAD bounced at 1.3960 as predicted and rose about 80 pips to 1.4038.

A wise trader would have re-entered after this retracement. It was our intention to re-direct the traders to re-enter at the top of the retracement wave, however, we were pre-occupied with the exotic movements of the GBP/USD triggered by the U.S. trade data release at 8:30 ET on Friday morning.

After the retracement, EUR/CAD moved down to 1.3830, well past our Target #4 which was 300 pips below our entry price. The Target #4 was a very conservative target. Our final target for this trend is about 1.3800.

____________________

Previous signals:

TS#95 Sell EUR/CAD - Exit now at about 1.3960 to 1.3980
Friday 6/9/2006 9:00 ET

The move down was very swift and strong. Our reading of this pattern is that it has reached a reversal point in between Target #2 and Target #3. If fell shy of Target #3 by only 10 pips. The safest course is toexit at about 1.3960 to 1.3980 and consolidate your profits of about 220 pips.
Trade signal:

Thursday 6/8/2006 13:15 ET

TS#95 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4190 - 1.4200
Stop is 1.4211

Target #1 is 1.4100
Target #2 is 1.4030
Target #3 is 1.3950
Target #4 is 1.3900
  • #453
  • Jun 12, 2006 11:11am Jun 12, 2006 11:11am
Monday 6/12/2006 12:00 ET

Re-entry opportunity TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY at about 210.85

For those not already in this trade, a re-entry opportunity arose when the price rose twice to 210.90 last night. If the price rises again to 210.85, then a third re-entry opportunity will present itself.

The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85

The stop is 211.06

Risk is max. 30 pips

Reward is min. 191 pips for last above mentioned target.

Reward : risk ratio is 6.4 to 1

__________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET

TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75

If anyone holds a short position on GBP/JPY then we advise a stop of 211.08

Thousands of analysts all over the world are staring at the wedge formation on this pair that has been in formation for 40 days.

If it breaks out downwards, as we suspect it will, then the movement will be very strong and go far. Our first downwards target is 208.75, 200 pips below the entry price.
  • #454
  • Jun 12, 2006 1:53pm Jun 12, 2006 1:53pm
Looks like the USDCAD stopped out.
  • #455
  • Jun 12, 2006 2:35pm Jun 12, 2006 2:35pm
True, Yardie. Buying USD/CAD while it is falling through the floor is a very bad idea. It is better to sell it on peaks. It was a mistake, and we have learnt our lesson. Sometimes currencies bounce very little. And this trend is definitely not over yet. It was much wiser to sell EUR/CAD, and thus enjoy the combined benefits of both the falling USD/CAD and the falling EUR/USD, which is a prime opportunity.
  • #456
  • Jun 13, 2006 1:29am Jun 13, 2006 1:29am
Looks like this one stopped out too.. barely.



Quoting itme
Monday 6/12/2006 12:00 ET

Re-entry opportunity TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY at about 210.85

For those not already in this trade, a re-entry opportunity arose when the price rose twice to 210.90 last night. If the price rises again to 210.85, then a third re-entry opportunity will present itself.

The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85

The stop is 211.06

Risk is max. 30 pips

Reward is min. 191 pips for last above mentioned target.

Reward : risk ratio is 6.4 to 1

__________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET

TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75

If anyone holds a short position on GBP/JPY then we advise a stop of 211.08

Thousands of analysts all over the world are staring at the wedge formation on this pair that has been in formation for 40 days.

If it breaks out downwards, as we suspect it will, then the movement will be very strong and go far. Our first downwards target is 208.75, 200 pips below the entry price.
  • #457
  • Jun 13, 2006 2:02am Jun 13, 2006 2:02am
Tuesday 6/13/2006 2:45 ET

GBP/USD descended from the entry price of 1.8450 to 1.8465 to 1.8385 but is likely to rise now to 1.8490 to 1.8500

We have exited our short position and entered a buy position, with a target at 1.8490.

One can hold the original short position and just be patient, in which case one's stop should be raised a bit to 1.8511, or one can reverse and follow us in this more active trading style, which is more risky.

Or one may exit and take profits at the current price of about 1.8400 or lower, and re-enter at a higher price if it gets there.

_____________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Re-entry Opportunity TS#96 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8450 to 1.8465
Monday 6/12/2006 9:00 ET

Althouth TS#69 did not get stopped out, it did a loop and is back to the entry price. So anyone who exited and took profit of up to 75 pips, or who failed to enter originally, can re-enter at 1.8450 to 1.8465.

Stop is still 1.8491

Targets are the same as below.

__________________________________________________ ___-

Original Trade Signal:

Friday 6/9/2006 4:15 ET
TS#96 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8458 - 1.8460
Stop is set at 1.8491
Target #1 is 1.8300
Target #2 is 1.8250
Risk is max. 37 pips
Reward is min. 154 pips (T#1), 204 pips (T#2)
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.2 to 1 (T#1) and 5.5 to 1 (T#2)
Confidence level: 80% for Target #1

For research purposes only.
  • #458
  • Jun 13, 2006 4:01am Jun 13, 2006 4:01am
Tuesday 6/13/2006 4:45 ET

TS #99 Sell USD/CAD 1.1063 - 1.1085

Stop loss is 1.1111

Risk is max. 53 pips

Target #1 is 1.0920

Target #2 is 1.0840

Reward (T#2) is min. 218 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 4.1 to 1 (T#2)


For research purposes only.
  • #459
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:37am Jun 13, 2006 6:37am
Tuesday 6/13/2006 7:30 ET

TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY got stopped out when the price rose to 211.18. We should have increased the stop to 211.25 according to a simple procedure. We showed a simple way to adjust the stop to the changing patterns as time goes on earlier in this thread. It is foolish to allow the stop to drift below the short term trend line.

We actually shorted GBP/JPY at 211.17. Now it is down to 210.83. Our system would have raised the stop or instructed a re-entry at 211.17. Stop is now 211.25.

__________________________________________-

Previous trade signals:

Originally Posted by itme
Monday 6/12/2006 12:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY at about 210.85
For those not already in this trade, a re-entry opportunity arose when the price rose twice to 210.90 last night. If the price rises again to 210.85, then a third re-entry opportunity will present itself.
The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85
The stop is 211.06
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 191 pips for last above mentioned target.
Reward : risk ratio is 6.4 to 1
__________________________________

Previous trade signal:
Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET
TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75
If anyone holds a short position on GBP/JPY then we advise a stop of 211.08
Thousands of analysts all over the world are staring at the wedge formation on this pair that has been in formation for 40 days.
If it breaks out downwards, as we suspect it will, then the movement will be very strong and go far. Our first downwards target is 208.75, 200 pips below the entry price.
  • #460
  • Jun 13, 2006 8:57am Jun 13, 2006 8:57am
The crazy GBPJPY pair is bouncing all over the place today. Stopped out again.
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