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Billion Dollar Day video analysis

  • #181
  • Feb 27, 2013 3:57pm Feb 27, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting M-H Trader
There are algos that read the news in XML and trade off it.
What's their returns like ?
Or is it geek with a love affair with Suri
  • #182
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:07pm Feb 27, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting ForexOracle
now take a look at one of the many fundamental news and commentaries popping up at their screen.

Thats so weird, they seem to rely on third party analysts for their decisions.
Are we thinking this is from Reuters? If so, what does it mean when it says 'However the US unit slipped on profit...'? Does 'US unit' mean the US branch of Barclays? If so this is from an internal analyst.
  • #183
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:09pm Feb 27, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting stevexyg
Are we thinking this is from Reuters? If so, what does it mean when it says 'However the US unit slipped on profit...'? Does 'US unit' mean the US branch of Barclays? If so this is from an internal analyst.
The phrase "US Unit" is the US dollar
  • #184
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:12pm Feb 27, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting ForexOracle

HIHI FRIENDS. THE MRKT STILL LOOKS BEARISH BUT THERE IS NO GREAT MOVEMENT. I SEE POSSIBLE RANGE FOR TODAY
This is interesting because it's obvious the Russian traders aren't going to tell him what they are planning. But it's like a poker game so he might get a hint from their response as to what they are up to!
  • #185
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:14pm Feb 27, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting lasty
The phrase "US Unit" is the US dollar
I see, that makes sense then, yes it's a general and brief exchange market summary.
  • #186
  • Feb 27, 2013 5:19pm Feb 27, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting lasty
What's their returns like ?
Or is it geek with a love affair with Suri
Well, they see and place 1000s of trades before you even read the first word of the headline. So you tell me.
  • #187
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:52pm Feb 27, 2013 6:52pm
Quoting M-H Trader
Well, they see and place 1000s of trades before you even read the first word of the headline. So you tell me.
If im relying on a robot to decipher market direction on its interpretation of the news, I want my money to be as far away from that as possible.
  • #188
  • Edited Mar 4, 2013 1:49am Mar 3, 2013 11:56pm | Edited Mar 4, 2013 1:49am
Quoting ForexOracle
4:09 min and we hear through the squawk box:

---- Russian looking for sterling mark at 25

So now we have a situation where Barclay is moving the Pound lower and the Foreign Bank of Russia shows up buying.

Of course nobody at Barclay's knew it yet but Richard seem to be concerned. He calls them direct.

Now I wonder what is the point of calling the competition to ask for advice but Richard text them and get what he was supposed to get.
A lame answer!

[b]HIHI FRIENDS. THE MRKT STILL...
Ok. Lets pick up from where we left.

So basically Barclay was selling the pound when suddenly the Russians start buying it

We saw that Boris bought it in bigger chunks of 20 million.

Richard check prices around and decide to follow the Russians meaning reverting their positions.

At 4:23 min Richard says something really interesting.

We're gonna go buy some sterling. Looks like everybody in the market is quite a bit short sterling, does not want to go down.

I'm not really sure word by word in this transcription.

Calling Steve to the rescue!! Or if any other British would like to pop in and help it will be really appreciated.

Anyways I think even if the transcription is not 100% correct. The idea is that Barclay reverted positions because there is too many institutions short the pound.

Note how he talks about the pound instead of a specific pair. That I believe reinforces my theory that professionals see currencies individually. More like a regular merchandise, like tomatoes or oranges.

The concept of currency in pairs only is something we retailers got from our brokers. Where we don't have any choice but to trade their pre defined pairs.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #189
  • Mar 5, 2013 3:41pm Mar 5, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting ForexOracle
Ok. Lets pick up from where we left.

So basically Barclay was selling the pound when suddenly the Russians start buying it

We saw that Boris bought it in bigger chunks of 20 million.

Richard check prices around and decide to follow the Russians meaning reverting their positions.

At 4:23 min Richard says something really interesting.

We're gonna go buy some sterling. Looks like everybody in the market is quite a bit short sterling, does not want to go down.

I'm not really sure word by...
Not really .. Pound, Sterling or Cable all relate to US dollar.
There was no actively traded cross rates like there are today.
So if the russian was to buy GBP/DEM barclays would need to cross these two ccy pairs ie GBP/USD and USD/DEM and price accordingly.
In the interbank market there was no GBP/DEM quotes
Keep in mind that this was during the cold war and Russia hated anything to do with US dollars hence they love to trade GBP/DEM
  • #190
  • Mar 5, 2013 6:01pm Mar 5, 2013 6:01pm
Quoting ForexOracle
Ok. Lets pick up from where we left.

So basically Barclay was selling the pound when suddenly the Russians start buying it

We saw that Boris bought it in bigger chunks of 20 million.

Richard check prices around and decide to follow the Russians meaning reverting their positions.

At 4:23 min Richard says something really interesting.

We're gonna go buy some sterling. Looks like everybody in the market is quite a bit short sterling, does not want to go down.

I'm not really sure word by word in this transcription.

Calling...
RH: 'I'm gonna go and buy a bit of Sterling. Looks like...looks like everybody in the market might be a bit short of Sterling [but] it doesn't want to go down.'

So I don't think Richard decides to buy here because there are too many people going short, but rather that there are a lot of people going short but price does not go down as expected. He is suggesting Boris buying activity is holding up the market because despite all the selling, price is still holding. So Richard surmises that Boris are into serious buying and therefore he could get on a move higher as Boris buys more and pushes price up.

What is very interesting is: what does RH think will happen in the market structure that will cause price to now move higher to give him profit? Does he think Boris will buy a LOT more soon saturating the market and pushing price higher? Or does he think sellers will change to buy once they see price isn't falling? Or does he think sellers will soon dry up as all the sell orders have been filled allowing Boris continual order flow to take price higher? Perhaps if Boris is such a huge buyer it doesn't matter what happens because the huge Boris orders saturate the market and nothing can stop the train they set rolling?
  • #191
  • Mar 5, 2013 6:11pm Mar 5, 2013 6:11pm
Quoting stevexyg
RH: 'I'm gonna go and buy a bit of Sterling. Looks like...looks like everybody in the market might be a bit short of Sterling [but] it doesn't want to go down.'

So I don't think Richard decides to buy here because there are too many people going short, but rather that there are a lot of people going short but price does not go down as expected. He is suggesting Boris buying activity is holding up the market because despite all the selling, price is still holding. So Richard surmises that Boris are into serious buying...
Well, the guy from BBC says that the Russians are buying sterling in a "big operation", this comment was inserted later so I would assume that the documentary makers got some explanation from Richard and Pavlou about what happened. Thats my theory
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #192
  • Mar 5, 2013 6:16pm Mar 5, 2013 6:16pm
Quoting lasty
Not really .. Pound, Sterling or Cable all relate to US dollar.
There was no actively traded cross rates like there are today.
So if the russian was to buy GBP/DEM barclays would need to cross these two ccy pairs ie GBP/USD and USD/DEM and price accordingly.
In the interbank market there was no GBP/DEM quotes
Keep in mind that this was during the cold war and Russia hated anything to do with US dollars hence they love to trade GBP/DEM
So what you are saying is that because the dollar is the worlds reserve currency it works like a absolute point of reference for all currencies?

Well in this case not only for currencies but for pretty much everything, like gold, oil or anything in the planet.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #193
  • Mar 7, 2013 6:02pm Mar 7, 2013 6:02pm
Quoting ForexOracle
Ok. Lets pick up from where we left.

So basically Barclay was selling the pound when suddenly the Russians start buying it

We saw that Boris bought it in bigger chunks of 20 million.

Richard check prices around and decide to follow the Russians meaning reverting their positions.

At 4:23 min Richard says something really interesting.

We're gonna go buy some sterling. Looks like everybody in the market is quite a bit short sterling, does not want to go down.

I'm not really sure word by...
Quick correction the post quoted above says 4:23 when it is really 5:23

Anyways, we are now a few seconds from the end of part C.

At 5:29 minutes the first order goes for 58-63 GBP/DMK

While they are buying the price spikes to 58-68 but most of the buy was done below that price.


It is interesting how they start to buy in little chunks of 5 million. To end up with 35 million total

When Barclay started their operation they offered 10 millions sterling in Hong Kong. Now they are trading with the same lot size as William from Chemical bank.

The Russian started their operation with 20 million. I would really like to understand the logic behind those lot sizes.

Another weird thing is that right at the end of this part Chris Pavlou seems very agitated as he comes to Richards desk. It really appears that something is going wrong judging by Pavlou's body language.

So we are done with part C of the documentary.

Reading back all the comments and transcripts I got amazed on how many new stuff I was still able to learn from this video.

Part D and part E and we are done.
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #194
  • Mar 11, 2013 6:01pm Mar 11, 2013 6:01pm
Billion Dollar Day part D

Ok so lets keep analysing the video.

Last post , I was talking about Chris Pavlou getting a little agitated. Part D starts with him saying:

The market is short !

Note his body language, facial expression, voice and hand signal express conviction.

So we have a situation where Barclay was selling Sterling, than the Russians came buying it ( allegedly in a big operation) so Barclay reversed their positions, now it seems they are ready to unwind again buying back all the sterling they sold.

Pavlou is probably reminding them that the trend is down. Market short.

As Pavlou talks, Richard seems to be arguing with somebody to his right (probably a fellow trader) something about Citibank. He seems to be waiting for a answer or something but the camera cuts before the answer comes.

0:15 and Richard gets the phone.

If you are looking for an offer you got it. If you are looking for an offer you got it --------- between 80-90 I want to sell

Than somebody shout 90-95. The trader at Richards left say " yours" which seems to be a joke since he starts to laugh.

Richard says "yes" authorizing the transaction.

87-97 is the last quote we hear.

What cot my attention from the last seconds of part C and the first seconds of this part here is how agitated they get while trading.

I think everybody following this thread remembers at the very beginning how Richard Hill spoke about maintaining a cool head other wise you have no chance.

Well I guess he is not following his own advice or maybe this is "keeping it cool" for him.

The most funny of all, is that Pavlou who is the senior in the room seem to be the most agitated of them all.


Inserted Video
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #195
  • Mar 11, 2013 7:28pm Mar 11, 2013 7:28pm
0:36 into the video BBC comment on a "brief" speculative bubble bursting. Barclay made money again.

What you saw? We bought 35 million pounds it went up 30 points we started to take our profits.

The reporter asks how much money they made. Richard is not sure so after some calculations he says 75 thousand pounds.

So only in this operation Barclay scored around 0.2%
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #196
  • Mar 12, 2013 4:01pm Mar 12, 2013 4:01pm
RH : took about three minutes.

So even the big boys scalp!

btw FO when you say cot you I'm sure mean caught. eg something caught your attention.
  • #197
  • Mar 12, 2013 4:48pm Mar 12, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting stevexyg
RH : took about three minutes.

So even the big boys scalp!

btw FO when you say cot you I'm sure mean caught. eg something caught your attention.
Sorry about that. Thanks for the tip

I think I got better writing "quote" instead of "cote" now lets see if I can manage to not forget about the "caught" one
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #198
  • Mar 12, 2013 11:42pm Mar 12, 2013 11:42pm
I'm not posting here anymore because FF erased my other thread out of nothing....let the trolls take over
So, you think you have rights? LOL
  • #199
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:35am Mar 13, 2013 11:35am
Yes I see that - the one about the 8 Kings theory. I don't understand why they would do that. Have you contacted Twee about it?


I thought your point about a Pieter Romanus already at the helm was a very very interesting discovery.
  • #200
  • May 26, 2013 1:37pm May 26, 2013 1:37pm
Dear ForexOracle and stevexyg.

Please, don't stop to analize this video. Except from the narrator I can't understand almost anything of what is said and you guys clarified everything until here.

I'm in process to make a subtitle for this video in my language and this thread was my only hope to conclude it....

Thanks a lot.
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