Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1959 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,161
  • Edited 1:36am Feb 27, 2013 1:05am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting cuthbert
hmmmm chief since you seem so active let me ask.

did you use to implement carry trade strategies coupled with long sword in the battleground 'the question mark'



regardes
ya 10 %+- of my anchour annualised P&L.
Mostly as a service for my very BIG hedging customers.Why?
They tell me their needs and i create instrument for them hedge effectively.

and please i not want discuss hedging with retail speculation.
The purpose of hedges to to stabalise corp cost.
Nothing to do with retail.

if you need hedge your mega millions, please get pro assistance.
i retired.
just want help some ant friends be better traders.
if commercialised or BIG boys corp professionals, this not the place.

regards
  • #39,162
  • Feb 27, 2013 2:16am Feb 27, 2013 2:16am
On the coffee and back to trading today.


after monday's error and tuesday's blessing.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,163
  • Feb 27, 2013 2:36am Feb 27, 2013 2:36am
Quoting tubguy
Now, my 1k available capital is just all I am willing to put at risk at this time and the 50:1 leverage wouldn't even allow me to comfortably
trade at $1.00 per pip so I prefer to have the added leverage if needed.
My friend I will only think about $1 per pip if the account size is $10,000, saying it just in case.

Regards
  • #39,164
  • Feb 27, 2013 3:12am Feb 27, 2013 3:12am
thx fti for your detailed reply.
Yes I try not to pre-empt the bigger picture.

I just note that Panda building their case. Gold last two yrs bought some 300 tonnes each, they imported lot of base metals iron ore, coal etc stockpile, now deal with russia to exchange oil for yuan, also iran.

and meantime US just printing paper
lol



Quoting fti
You ask the most dangerous questions.

ok here my thoughts.
One must understand why the usd is the trade medium.
The dollar is not supported(backed) by anything now, only thing there is trust.
The reason USD came on the fore as trade medium was because they the victors of WW2.
and they had always been viewed as the defender of freedoms and that they not support forcing of rigid rules. so had the most libertys.
Then Gold was used to assist it as a medium of store of value, being the most acceptable percious metals class. But no longer due to executive...
  • #39,165
  • Feb 27, 2013 3:22am Feb 27, 2013 3:22am
Quoting peetee09
thx fti for your detailed reply.
Yes I try not to pre-empt the bigger picture.

I just note that Panda building their case. Gold last two yrs bought some 300 tonnes each, they imported lot of base metals iron ore, coal etc stockpile, now deal with russia to exchange oil for yuan, also iran.

and meantime US just printing paper
lol
is good, they doing bilateral trade development.
but that in no way is taking the usd out of the markets.
effects on usd markets should only be indirect if any.

stockpiles is good, they protecting their industrial supply chain, they have lots surplus. collect wood on fine days and buffer for rainy days is not a bad idea.


regards
  • #39,166
  • Feb 27, 2013 3:40am Feb 27, 2013 3:40am
Italian 10 year bonds due out in about 20 mins, with what is going on at the moment this could have an impact, so be prepared for anything..... survival is paramount.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,167
  • Feb 27, 2013 3:53am Feb 27, 2013 3:53am
Phew... If you write a lot sometimes!
I strive to catch up.
Just wanted to say that I'm felling better using ticks charts (tick=1 price move).
Jest suggested it a loooong time ago, I use 100 ticks instead of 200.
Makes picture clearer for me.
Anyone tried?
Beside that, I found EU being a hell of nightmare for me...
Hope you dodged the falling knife on GU!
  • #39,168
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:00am Feb 27, 2013 4:00am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Phew... If you write a lot sometimes!
I strive to catch up.
Just wanted to say that I'm felling better using ticks charts (tick=1 price move).
Jest suggested it a loooong time ago, I use 100 ticks instead of 200.
Makes picture clearer for me.
Anyone tried?
Beside that, I found EU being a hell of nightmare for me...
Hope you dodged the falling knife on GU!
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #39,169
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:06am Feb 27, 2013 4:06am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoUWVjkqI2w
Right chief... I just missed one word or two here and there...
  • #39,170
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:21am Feb 27, 2013 4:21am
Quoting fti
did you hear about the firm that lost 400+mio usd due to 1 computer bug?
i think they probably feel same as me lost all my data due to harddisk crashing by SMART due to powersupply issues or bad tech design.

if you learn from experience and only risk to foreign cap then you experienced.
but you need start somewhere, so initially you may need risk pricipal. But continue doing that long term and one day.....

regards

absolutely, it worse than my experience of lost electricity power in the middle of trade for a half day.
lost connectivity is a significant terror.


yes, principal risk. ai ya..i not know that much lah
still learning of any possibilities also.


regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,171
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:27am Feb 27, 2013 4:27am
One thing that is not quite clear to me yet, is this:
As a rule of thumb, should we increase our attack sequence when PA is fast (ex: 1-3-5-8) or should we decrease it instead (ex: 1-1-2-4)?
In other words, the more aggressive stance should be when PA is fast (high Delta) or when is more smooth (medium Delta and low Sigma)?

I got power backup on my PC.
I got a backup notebook which battery is always charged.
I got a 3G connection in case of my primary ISP connection breakdown.
I can close trades from my iPhone and iPad.
I got a netbook as last resort.
I got my broker phone written down.
And I don't feel safe.
  • #39,172
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:29am Feb 27, 2013 4:29am
Quoting phil13
On the coffee and back to trading today.


after monday's error and tuesday's blessing.


Regards


Phil.
hi Phil

i have removed moving average line in my chart. also i'm start using basic line chart besides my candle stick chart.
then what i feel?? i see the flow!!!

once, the first time i read the market chart, i use basic line chart with moving average for couple months.
glad to know my first way in attempt to read the market chart is not futile.
thanks to to you who has remind me of that line.
i'm absolutely naked!!!!
almost recover my early week lost.
still in back testing.

trade well Phil


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,173
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:49am Feb 27, 2013 4:49am
Quoting frz
hi Phil

i have removed moving average line in my chart. also i'm start using basic line chart besides my candle stick chart.
then what i feel?? i see the flow!!!

once, the first time i read the market chart, i use basic line chart with moving average for couple months.
glad to know my first way in attempt to read the market chart is not futile.
thanks to to you who has remind me of that line.
i'm absolutely naked!!!!
almost recover my early week lost.
still in back testing.

trade well Phil


Regards


Hi frz


well done, seek and you shall find.....explore the foundation to understand the structure.


regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,174
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:52am Feb 27, 2013 4:52am
Quoting phil13
Hi frz


well done, seek and you shall find.....explore the foundation to understand the structure.


regards


Phil.

thanks Phil, much obliged..


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,175
  • Edited 5:45am Feb 27, 2013 4:58am | Edited 5:45am
old 12 girls plays nice music for old man.

Inserted Video


beautiful.
wish for them youth vitality for long long time.
my so bad, i auditioned so much of their music.
Only had bought 1 of their DVD.
must make a point buy some if i get a chance go out tower records again.
esp the one that feat kitaro. Lovely arrangements.
  • #39,176
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:12am Feb 27, 2013 6:12am
Quoting fti
oh ok, then is a ok.
you on better foundation now.
make sure growing stabily before committing to the battles.

power to my friends. oh in a humble way.

regards

I think I'm on a MUCH better foundation now. I do appreciate your thoughts and advice.

Having you around is like getting another grandpa. Had a mentor/grandpa that taught me the basics roping. never thought I would be lucky enough to have one in trading.
  • #39,177
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:18am Feb 27, 2013 6:18am
Quoting frz
Hi Mike

i think i'm in the same condition of you do. particularly, in using leverage for better risk
but of course, you have plenty more experience than me.

gosh, i couldn't imagine what it feels if i lost 10k on one fat finger..
i hope you find good broker that fits for you soon.


regards

Just be careful as Fti has mentioned. You could have a fat finger too. I hope not.

I didn't lose 10k in one mistake though. I did almost blow a small practice account. It could happen to any size account.

Thanks for your well wishes and welcome to the TAF family.
  • #39,178
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:23am Feb 27, 2013 6:23am
Quoting simpleman
My friend I will only think about $1 per pip if the account size is $10,000, saying it just in case.

Regards
Thanks simpleman

I'll keep it in mind.
  • #39,179
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:27am Feb 27, 2013 6:27am
Quoting tubguy
Just be careful as Fti has mentioned. You could have a fat finger too. I hope not.

I didn't lose 10k in one mistake though. I did almost blow a small practice account. It could happen to any size account.

Thanks for your well wishes and welcome to the TAF family.

my account has wiped several times.. luckily, i divide my capital before it happens.
true, it could happen to any size account.

thanks Mike, have a good trade


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,180
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:56am Feb 27, 2013 6:56am
Quoting frz
my account has wiped several times.. luckily, i divide my capital before it happens.
true, it could happen to any size account.

thanks Mike, have a good trade


Regards
Hi Frz. Is losing money fun? Regards
15 traders viewing now