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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,141
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:45pm Feb 26, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting 786 trading
I am trying to think MO to stay with big flow. In 5 min / 1min things move faster ... in daily/1 hr they are so slow that it seems they are not moving. I had reduced my troops to minimum and have very low expectation from market.

Should I see same patterns on 1 hour battle as I used to see on 5 min?

What is main items would change in my strategy as I am moving my war from 5 min. dance to 1 hour dance, now my enemy seems very huge here.

What is the best way to go with flow?

I am finding hard time to feel the momentum as every thing...
I ask you do task learn from market how to feel.
you asking me? and i already done my best to show.
what i feels is pain all over, you want some of it?

You came to markets a bit late.
If you had been flowing all along you would notice the change in the market rythym.
I suspect is counter measures, or possibly the interbank may be withdrawing support of this retail thingy.
The illiquidity and sudden gapping jerks, indicate to me loss of liquidity.
Maybe the begining of the end of retail. lets hope is just a phase.

Deutsche alreadywithdrew their liquidity sometime ago. If the adults leave, then all thats left is some childrens playing.
The same happened to the futures FX markets a decade+ ago, when liquidity withheld support.

regards
  • #39,142
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:55pm Feb 26, 2013 11:55pm
on a personal note.

i have started feeling less comfortable with my market observation since i started studying ' what determines the exchange rate ' theories.

is a complex web of forces especially in short and medium term. is better characterized as a 'random walk theory' if i may. it has also started to interfere with my market feel. so, i feel better not having a position. only scouts if random walk. no skews.

i am thankful that i was taught to win the battle first and execute it later.

regards
  • #39,143
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:55pm Feb 26, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting cuthbert


regards
what are you talking about?

regards
  • #39,144
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:59pm Feb 26, 2013 11:59pm
Quoting fti
us hyperinflation?
I don't know.
As far as figs the fed is showing, inflation is checked.
I am a trader, I am not an ecomomist.
I don't make guesses or predictions, I only trade and flow things as they unfold.
Rigid thinking will impeed my ability perform.
These are thoughts that need be enshrined.

regards
  • #39,145
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:00am Feb 27, 2013 12:00am
Quoting fti
what are you talking about?

regards
chief!
how does leverage minimize credit risk.

regards
  • #39,146
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:02am Feb 27, 2013 12:02am
Quoting cuthbert
on a personal note.

i have started feeling less comfortable with my market observation since i started studying ' what determines the exchange rate ' theories.

is a complex web of forces especially in short and medium term. is better characterized as a 'random walk theory' if i may. it has also started to interfere with my market feel. so, i feel better not having a position. only scouts if random walk. no skews.

i am thankful that i was taught to win the battle first and execute it later.

regards
learn a few theorys and you think you can function efficiently?
ai ya paper boys.
The CFA is industry standard detemined that you are student of finance, and had done necessary minimum for your understanding of the industry to function in a professional capacity.
One can survive with minimum?
So anyone who has studied law will be called to the bar?

I already can feel you ego overbound, since you passed paper 1. In fact i think you begining random walking.


regards
  • #39,147
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:08am Feb 27, 2013 12:08am
Quoting cuthbert
chief!
how does leverage minimize credit risk.

regards
you sure you passed paper 1.?

because you not need deposit full amount of your risk exposure.
So you only providing margin for defray P&L.
so if credit become a problem you not lose the whole pot.

Do you understand what is credit risk? aka counterpartyrisk?



regards
  • #39,148
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:21am Feb 27, 2013 12:21am
Quoting fti
Ai yo.

What a mistake.

Is not a mistake, is a wipe out.

This the reason rule 1 and rule 2 and rule 3, is paramount for survival in this business.
Preservation of capital.
Now you will be working against the odds.

refer this table and you will understand how uphill your task is now.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...es#post1748941

and as a friend i would like to highlight to you not sai lang( full ante ) your move.
10% of account money is still money.
But is your call, i cannot tell you what you...

Thanks for the insight and advice.

I think I was not clear in my post. Although you are still correct.

I lost the 10k over a long period of almost 2 years when I thought I knew what I was doing. The market proved to me several times that I didn't.
Basically it was death by a thousand stops. All stopped out by me and my pain threshold. Usually turned in my favor soon after as well.

The Fat Finger mistake was on a small funded account of $250. I was trading very small lots for practice and making profits. When entering another skew I had the decimal in the wrong place and my trade was 10 times what I intended. Which was to be a quick rescue for $0.50 per pip.
Price spiked against me and I hit their margin in about a minute, before I could realize my mistake and correct it. That left me with $68 in the account.

That account was strictly for practice and I had no problems if I lost it all.

Now, my 1k available capital is just all I am willing to put at risk at this time and the 50:1 leverage wouldn't even allow me to comfortably
trade at $1.00 per pip so I prefer to have the added leverage if needed.

I still intend to keep it small but I have always liked to have more of something available if I need it. Old habit from my asphalt construction days.

I will definitely heed your advice and watch the leverage closely. Also, where I place the decimal in an order.

Anyway, i didn't want anyone to think I lost the 10k on one Fat Finger.

Forgot to add. I still don't know what I'm doing but at least now I know it. Learning more everyday now.
  • #39,149
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:23am Feb 27, 2013 12:23am
Quoting cuthbert

chief it will do no harm and do good only.

regards
do what good, you writing $200 mio usd tickets.
what good does it do for retail?

regards
  • #39,150
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:24am Feb 27, 2013 12:24am
Quoting fti
learn a few theorys and you think you can function efficiently?
ai ya paper boys.
The CFA is industry standard detemined that you are student of finance, and had done necessary minimum for your understanding of the industry to function in a professional capacity.
One can survive with minimum?
So anyone who has studied law will be called to the bar?

I already can feel you ego overbound, since you passed paper 1. In fact i think you begining random walking.


regards


not ego. is just that new arenas are opening and am started get biased. that is why.

regards
  • #39,151
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:27am Feb 27, 2013 12:27am
Quoting tubguy
Thanks for the insight and advice.

I think I was not clear in my post. Although you are still correct.

I lost the 10k over a long period of almost 2 years when I thought I knew what I was doing. The market proved to me several times that I didn't.
Basically it was death by a thousand stops. All stopped out by me and my pain threshold. Usually turned in my favor soon after as well.

The Fat Finger mistake was on a small funded account of $250. I was trading very small lots for practice and making profits. When entering another skew I had...
oh ok, then is a ok.
you on better foundation now.
make sure growing stabily before committing to the battles.

power to my friends. oh in a humble way.

regards
  • #39,152
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:29am Feb 27, 2013 12:29am
Quoting cuthbert


not ego. is just that new arenas are opening and am started get biased. that is why.

regards
yes , i understand.
thats why my high school boys used to out perform my mbas by leaps.
but to be fair, some mbas also learn trade well, with better understanding of the battle grounds.
Learning means a person knows more stuff, just that. sees bigger pic. but if egor dominates, then ...........

if you in disorientation. Can always stop trading, until you can get a handle on your mind. my friend.


regards
  • #39,153
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:31am Feb 27, 2013 12:31am
Quoting fti
you sure you passed paper 1.?

because you not need deposit full amount of your risk exposure.
So you only providing margin for defray P&L.
so if credit become a problem you not lose the whole pot.

Do you understand what is credit risk? aka counterpartyrisk?

regards
you want see the result.
credit risk is the risk that the party you are dealing with may not be able to fulfil its obligations.
with brokers, dealers it will be that they many not take your money and run away.
that perspective you are explaining, i didn't pondered.

regards

please do rebuke me some time.
suddenly i am starting to feel better.
  • #39,154
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:37am Feb 27, 2013 12:37am
Quoting fti
do what good, you writing $200 mio usd tickets.
what good does it do for retail?

regards
for better understanding of the battle grounds.

regards
  • #39,155
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:38am Feb 27, 2013 12:38am
Quoting cuthbert
you want see the result.
credit risk is the risk that the party you are dealing with may not be able to fulfil its obligations.
with brokers, dealers it will be that they many not take your money and run away.
that perspective you are explaining, i didn't pondered.

regards

please do rebuke me some time.
suddenly i am starting to feel better.
if funds are in sagregated accounts not used by managing broking, then risk is mitigated by law and some are insured.
The point about leverage as lesser credit risk is just that.

but if you practise over exposure and over extending of your capable limits, then the credit risk is you , not the counterparty.

remember countr party not only means those you trade with. YOU are also counterparty to trades.

regards
  • #39,156
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:46am Feb 27, 2013 12:46am
Quoting fti
if funds are in sagregated accounts not used by managing broking, then risk is mitigated by law and some are insured.
The point about leverage as lesser credit risk is just that.

but if you practise over exposure and over extending of your capable limits, then the credit risk is you , not the counterparty.

regards
leverage allows you to execute a transaction with less amount. so, less counterparty risk.

regards
  • #39,157
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:52am Feb 27, 2013 12:52am
Quoting cuthbert
leverage allows you to execute a transaction with less amount. so, less counterparty risk.

regards
again, if you over load your capacity to risk , you is counterparty risk.

regards
  • #39,158
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:53am Feb 27, 2013 12:53am
Quoting tubguy
Thanks for the insight and advice.

I think I was not clear in my post. Although you are still correct.

I lost the 10k over a long period of almost 2 years when I thought I knew what I was doing. The market proved to me several times that I didn't.
Basically it was death by a thousand stops. All stopped out by me and my pain threshold. Usually turned in my favor soon after as well.

The Fat Finger mistake was on a small funded account of $250. I was trading very small lots for practice and making profits. When entering another skew I had...

Hi Mike

i think i'm in the same condition of you do. particularly, in using leverage for better risk
but of course, you have plenty more experience than me.

gosh, i couldn't imagine what it feels if i lost 10k on one fat finger..
i hope you find good broker that fits for you soon.


regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,159
  • Feb 27, 2013 12:55am Feb 27, 2013 12:55am
Quoting frz
Hi Mike

i think i'm in the same condition of you do. particularly, in using leverage for better risk
but of course, you have plenty more experience than me.

gosh, i couldn't imagine what it feels lost 10k on one fat finger..
i hope you find good broker that fits for you soon.


regards
did you hear about the firm that lost 400+mio usd due to 1 computer bug?
i think they probably feel same as me lost all my data due to harddisk crashing by SMART due to powersupply issues or bad tech design.

if you learn from experience and only risk to foreign cap then you experienced.
but you need start somewhere, so initially you may need risk pricipal. But continue doing that long term and one day.....

regards
  • #39,160
  • Feb 27, 2013 1:00am Feb 27, 2013 1:00am
hmmmm chief since you seem so active let me ask.

did you use to implement carry trade strategies coupled with long sword in the battleground 'the question mark'

regardes
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