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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,121
  • Edited 11:42am Feb 26, 2013 10:17am | Edited 11:42am
Hi frz


it will come to you in time and with practice, you seem to be setting the right foundations, and you can not build a stable structure without good foundations.

Hi Mike


that is a shame about pepperstone, I did not realise they did not allow U.S. clients, I am on the other side of the world to them. Do not know how else to recommend pepperstone are the best I have tried so far.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,122
  • Feb 26, 2013 10:23am Feb 26, 2013 10:23am
Quoting phil13
Hi frz


it will come to you in time and with practice, you seem to be setting the right foundations, and you can not build a stable structure without good foundations.

Hi Mike


that is a shame about pepperstone, I did realise they did not allow U.S. clients, I am on the other side of the world to them. Do not know how else to recommend pepperstone are the best I have tried so far.


Regards


Phil.
What about http://www.dukascopy.com ?
  • #39,123
  • Feb 26, 2013 10:40am Feb 26, 2013 10:40am
Quoting phil13
Hi frz


it will come to you in time and with practice, you seem to be setting the right foundations, and you can not build a stable structure without good foundations.

thanks Phil, have a good trade


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,124
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:03am Feb 26, 2013 11:03am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
What about http://www.dukascopy.com ?

Thanks for the help Dr Zulu but this kinda keeps me out.

Quote
Attention: Dukascopy Bank SA only opens accounts with less than 5,000 USD for Swiss residents. For non-Swiss residents such an option is available with Dukascopy Europe, an EU subsidiary of Dukascopy Bank SA. ECN accounts with the minimum deposit of 100 USD are available only for the clients of Dukascopy Europe. (Read more)

I don't have 5k to play with. Lost a bit over 10k learning and being stupid. Now I need the leverage of an offshore broker in order to make more than a few bucks per day.

I really wish the U.S. gov. would stay out of my business and stop trying to protect me from myself. I can go to Vegas and lose everything, but
I need protection from something that is at least related to my ability.

Oh well, it is what it is. Just have to work with what ya got I guess.
  • #39,125
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:22am Feb 26, 2013 11:22am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
What about http://www.dukascopy.com ?
at the higher levels, there little diff between brokers.
they all give you the best they can.
only you want watch your credit risk, even today i not got my funds parked at refco.
and they was the biggest then.
so long as the brokers not scamming your $$, you just watch your risks. Had to write it off, like bad trades.

For me i always like keeps things within reach, so that, if problems arises they are within arbitration reach.
Leverage allows you minimise credit risk, Just not use that for exposures.

Marry one thats around you,and develop relationship, you keep looking over the fences and is a tail chase.
any signs of problems , withdraw your stuff fast, is all any one can do.
There is no best, so adjust to whats available.

regards
  • #39,126
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:34am Feb 26, 2013 11:34am
Long time no see all. Hi fti, it's good to see you are still doing ok. I just had a chat with a retired senior fx mm at about jobs and his experiences in general. Speaking with him reminded me of you since a lot of what you say rings true with professionals back in the 70's at least. Anyways, just wanted to drop in and say hi. Keep at it all.

fwiw if anyone is thinking of joining the fx industry, it would be nice to have a quant background w/ programming skills.
  • #39,127
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:37am Feb 26, 2013 11:37am
Quoting fti
at the higher levels, there little diff between brokers.
they all give you the best they can.
only you want watch your credit risk, even today i not got my funds parked at refco.
and they was the biggest then.
so long as the brokers not scamming your $$, you just watch your risks. Had to write it off, like bad trades.

For me i always like keeps things within reach, so that, if problems arises they are within arbitration reach.
Leverage allows you minimise credit risk, Just not use that for exposures.

Marry one thats around you,and develop...
Got it chief!
Duka is close enough for me and it seems pretty solid. I got a few k in trading account, but I'm just playing with the peanuts, untill I become consistently profitable.
Tubguy, I'm very sorry to hear about your 10k loss... Hope you're on the right track now and make them back as fast as possible.
US leverage limitation sux.
  • #39,128
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:44am Feb 26, 2013 11:44am
Quoting fullperson
fwiw if anyone is thinking of joining the fx industry, it would be nice to have a quant background w/ programming skills.
Hi fullperson!
I got programming skills. I spent the first two years of my learning curve writing hundreds of thousands lines of code.
I improved my skills for sure, but it has been of no other use. Just wasted time.
Guess trading at retail level is more about brainpower than computing power.
Just my 0,2.
Regards
  • #39,129
  • Edited 12:18pm Feb 26, 2013 11:56am | Edited 12:18pm
Road of life.

Inserted Video


Flow baby flow, paddle your canoe well.
For who took my advice read rovering to success.you will understand.
now i gonna break 1 rule. need a smoke.


Inserted Video


ok boat song.
smoking on the boat.
goodnite.

Inserted Video
  • #39,130
  • Edited 1:56pm Feb 26, 2013 1:45pm | Edited 1:56pm
Quoting fti
Ahh good smoke.
what so difficult about Q?
Just study the below equation very carefully.

Everyone wants play long swords when cannot even handle short sword.
If i have energy , may be i consider teach peeps use spears.
But not today.

but so they become so cheap skate.
employ programmers do trading?
what does coders know about trading?

You not trying trick me teach use spears, i hope.


regards
oh for spot pricing , just use 6 hours for time to expiry, and i won't tell you why

20 years and they not found an equation beat this.
Quant school,

what a quant.

oops corn.
i mean wormhole,
now i need fold my time. see you all tom.


regards
  • #39,131
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:35pm Feb 26, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting fti
oh for spot pricing , just use 6 hours for time to expiry, and i won't tell you why

20 years and they not found an equation beat this.
Quant school,

what a quant.

oops corn.
i mean wormhole,
now i need fold my time. see you all tom.


regards
peeps still not understanding what you have shown us in this great thread sir. even after so many repeats. may be need to write in swahili.

Using shorts word is lot stress free than long sword even if things are so obvious.. oh yes nothing is obvious in trading

Just my little experience.

Regards
  • #39,132
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:49pm Feb 26, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting tubguy
Thanks for the help Dr Zulu but this kinda keeps me out.



I don't have 5k to play with. Lost a bit over 10k learning and being stupid. Now I need the leverage of an offshore broker in order to make more than a few bucks per day.

I really wish the U.S. gov. would stay out of my business and stop trying to protect me from myself. I can go to Vegas and lose everything, but
I need protection from something that is at least related to my ability.

Oh well, it is what it is. Just have to work with what ya got I guess.
Mike,
Have you tried Oanda, they have US office and they allow to trade as minimum as you want.
  • #39,133
  • Feb 26, 2013 5:30pm Feb 26, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting 786 trading
Mike,
Have you tried Oanda, they have US office and they allow to trade as minimum as you want.

Yeah, 786. I had an account there when I lost my butt. They are a good broker as far as I'm concerned but the 50:1 leverage here ain't gonna cut it for me now.

Since my big fat finger mistake i am at about 1k in funds. I need a bit more leverage to move a little faster.

In case you missed it, I went 10 times what I planned on a skew. price shot off against me and I only realized what I had done after my positions just closed. The dreaded margin stop. That left me with $68 to start back with. I made some of that 1k trading and some is refunding from me.

Thanks for the recommendation though.
  • #39,134
  • Feb 26, 2013 8:06pm Feb 26, 2013 8:06pm
Hi fti

I have a couple of BIG questions and I know that u are the best one to ask on this so I hope that you can provide a few words

1.PetroYuan
Panda making a play to replace US petrodollar, get rid of some of their US exposure and provide oil/resource/gold partially backed currency. Q can they pull it off? and what are near term likely events?

2. US hyperinflation
If ben the bank keeps printing $$$ and demand for US $ also drops as ppl diversify out of petrodollars does this mean hyperinflation in US?

3. FX in a hyperinflation world
From an fx point of view, and in liquid currencies where would be the best opportunities for large moves?
Resource fx like AUD or CAD? (but may be substantial cross currents) Risk off like JPY? (but they may be more active to weaken YPY) Gold supported like CHF?

thx P :-)
  • #39,135
  • Edited Feb 27, 2013 12:17am Feb 26, 2013 10:43pm | Edited Feb 27, 2013 12:17am
Quoting tubguy
Yeah, 786. I had an account there when I lost my butt. They are a good broker as far as I'm concerned but the 50:1 leverage here ain't gonna cut it for me now.

Since my big fat finger mistake i am at about 1k in funds. I need a bit more leverage to move a little faster.

In case you missed it, I went 10 times what I planned on a skew. price shot off against me and I only realized what I had done after my positions just closed. The dreaded margin stop. That left me with $68 to start back with. I made some of that 1k trading and some is refunding...
Ai yo.

What a mistake.

Is not a mistake, is a wipe out. although is not fault that was intensional. but is deep hole climb out of.
ai ya my friend.

This the reason rule 1 and rule 2 and rule 3, is paramount for survival in this business.
Preservation of capital.
Now you will be working against the odds.

refer this table and you will understand how uphill your task is now.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...es#post1748941

and as a friend i would like to highlight to you not sai lang( full ante ) your move.
10% of account money is still money.
But is your call, i cannot tell you what you must do. You need financial plan this for your self.

If this happened to bank, there will be a run on the bank.

I always suspected that the monitoring computers have algo determine how they find the victims to hit.
your mistake of over exposure opened you up.

There is a lesson here.
so i will say more so that others may be aware avoid this snare.
Oanda allows one have multiple accounts linked to your primary account they call them sub accounts.
movement of funds between accounts take a few minutes to do.

What one can do is to trade a sub account with just sufficient funds to operate while maintaining free funds in one's primary account.
this has 2 advantages.
1 is if you maintain just sufficient funds in trade account , a typo mistake will cause servers reject your trade for insufficient funds in cases where you made typo mistake.
2. is that in cases for battle skewing, you will be able mobilise funds quickly if needed arrest situations. esp when skews are heavy high.
the traditional commodities markets allow 24 hours for margin calls to be managed. So having funds parked allows one have the capacity to refund quickly if one decides go for the ultimate battle. Otherwise can activate the higher skewing levels in another account control risk%.or you can wait check or tt to clear.
3. also gives trader a chance to stop think if this dangerous up skewing is what wants to do.
acts like a cooling lull for one stop and think, also highlights to trader the impending danger and that one is operating at a higher risk level.

i not know which others brokers have this mm feature.

let me highlight to all, if any one drops below 40% of investment, one is sunked.
To continue, make sure one is mindset robust, and have lots more cap.
The right way disaster recovery, is to have ability refund.
otherwise is very uphill task.

I cannot direct or advice if one should risk after point oof no return. Point of no eturn is 40% of account equity.
That , every one must decide for themselves, if is more productive focus on other work , than carry a task overload.
I will only say that is not very clever.

regards

ADD: in my experimentation of the retail arena. I have concluded that leverage is not a good thing if traders not know how manage the leverage.
so tub, uping leverage in disaster is not well received option.
it will take you out of your stable operating mindset, which is already damaged by mistake.
one mistake not deserve another.
If my army is desimated to squard level, and i have no reserve army, I consider throwing in towel.
  • #39,136
  • Edited Feb 27, 2013 12:18am Feb 26, 2013 11:01pm | Edited Feb 27, 2013 12:18am
Quoting peetee09
Hi fti

I have a couple of BIG questions and I know that u are the best one to ask on this so I hope that you can provide a few words

1.PetroYuan
Panda making a play to replace US petrodollar, get rid of some of their US exposure and provide oil/resource/gold partially backed currency. Q can they pull it off? and what are near term likely events?

2. US hyperinflation
If ben the bank keeps printing $$$ and demand for US $ also drops as ppl diversify out of petrodollars does this mean hyperinflation in US?

3. FX in a hyperinflation...
You ask the most dangerous questions.

ok here my thoughts.
One must understand why the usd is the trade medium.
The dollar is not supported(backed) by anything now, only thing there is trust.
The reason USD came on the fore as trade medium was because they the victors of WW2.
and they had always been viewed as the defender of freedoms and that they not support forcing of rigid rules. so had the most libertys.
Then Gold was used to assist it as a medium of store of value, being the most acceptable percious metals class. But no longer due to executive orders.

So petro $ is not the answer.
You not realise that, OPEC could had already implimented medium for trade.
they would had done so, if not because, is difficult use finate & consumable commodity/energy resource, as benchmark for international trade.
The trust factor is not robust stable.

Evry think tan has been exploring this avenues.
All knows that the most robust medium is a diversified basket of worthy currencies and commodities.
But no one has been able create that holi grill basket, not even Morgan Stanley.
So is left to evryone create that basket for themselves from the free markets available.

There is no way get rid of us exposures, they trade partners.
Hostile behaviours only begets hostile reponses.
Is basic human nature.

For now , if the usd looses its position as medium of trade.
Then all hell will break lose as there is no replacement who met all the necessary qualifications.
All going different directions will create even more confusion.

Remember what it manage give birth to in 1942?

us hyperinflation?
I don't know.
As far as figs the fed is showing, inflation is checked.
I am a trader, I am not an ecomomist.
I don't make guesses or predictions, I only trade and flow things as they unfold.
Rigid thinking will impeed my ability perform.

FX markets?
The only real FX market is the interbank spot FX markets. Is the primary anchor liquidity of the FX markets where banks trade with other banks on what they need and what excesses they want remove from their books.

Then there is the secondary markets, where member of exchanges thinks they want challange the banks for control of these markets by making prices amongst its members, These known as futures & derivative markets.

Now we have new market place, a hybrid of futures arbitrage and retail market. But not forget that the liquidity providers who allowed this market be. If ever they withdraw the liquidity, then you have a dessert.

This the same thing I was telling fullperson, if they think they can remove the spot interbank dealers, then all they have left is quants chewing on keyboards pass the time.

regards
  • #39,137
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:17pm Feb 26, 2013 11:17pm
I am trying to think MO to stay with big flow. In 5 min / 1min things move faster ... in daily/1 hr they are so slow that it seems they are not moving. I had reduced my troops to minimum and have very low expectation from market.

Should I see same patterns on 1 hour battle as I used to see on 5 min?

What is main items would change in my strategy as I am moving my war from 5 min. dance to 1 hour dance, now my enemy seems very huge here.

What is the best way to go with flow?

I am finding hard time to feel the momentum as every thing is in very slooooooooooow motion....
Any guide line Sir?
  • #39,138
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:42pm Feb 26, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting fti
Leverage allows you minimise credit risk, Just not use that for exposures.


regards
  • #39,139
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:43pm Feb 26, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting fti
Everyone wants play long swords when cannot even handle short sword.
If i have energy , may be i consider teach peeps use spears.
But not today.

chief it will do no harm and do good only.

regards
  • #39,140
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:44pm Feb 26, 2013 11:44pm
Quoting fti
oh for spot pricing , just use 6 hours for time to expiry, and i won't tell you why

even 6 hours seems more.

regards
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