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How Do You Identify A Fake Breakout?

  • #61
  • Feb 18, 2013 5:50am Feb 18, 2013 5:50am
Quoting whatfx
i will have a look at stairsteps breakout. but from what you are saying, it appears you hedge until profit occurs, or its similar to murray maths. both a big no no for me iam afraid.
It isn't either, it's worth studoying, because it works, but it is to crude for me. I am sure you will find your own style, but you have had some quality answers on this thread
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  • #62
  • Feb 19, 2013 11:10pm Feb 19, 2013 11:10pm
Here is a breakout setup I would not trade.

1. setting up during Frankfurt
2. Price has already moved a long way
3. The breakout would be straight into the origin of the initial drop, meaning lot's of selling happened there previously

If the breakout fails price could retrace a long way before eventually going higher.

http://i.imgur.com/5yMflvl.png
- Look to the left, Trade to the right - I am the system
  • #63
  • Feb 21, 2013 4:37am Feb 21, 2013 4:37am
Quoting Sebastiaan76
Here is a breakout setup I would not trade.

1. setting up during Frankfurt
2. Price has already moved a long way
3. The breakout would be straight into the origin of the initial drop, meaning lot's of selling happened there previously

If the breakout fails price could retrace a long way before eventually going higher.

http://i.imgur.com/5yMflvl.png

well, these are just supply and demand zones. i would not have traded that breakout you have shown with the red arrow. would have waited to see price reaction in that zone and whether resistance held or not. a rejection of that line at least 2-3 times followed by the price falling below the lowest low of that area would mean no breakout but downward trend resuming.
  • #64
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:02am Feb 21, 2013 5:02am
i concur. See, you already know how to spot potential false breakouts
- Look to the left, Trade to the right - I am the system
  • #65
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:27am Feb 21, 2013 7:27am
Quoting Sebastiaan76
i concur. See, you already know how to spot potential false breakouts
He doesn't want to know how to spot "potential" false breakouts. Give the man his crystal ball already.
  • #66
  • Feb 25, 2013 3:00am Feb 25, 2013 3:00am
i have my own way of dealing/identifying false breakouts. the purpose of this thread is to find out new ideas/ways of dealing with it , how other people deal with it, to share ideas, and techniques.
  • #67
  • Feb 25, 2013 3:02am Feb 25, 2013 3:02am
Quoting whatfx
i have my own way of dealing/identifying false breakouts. the purpose of this thread is to find out new ideas/ways of dealing with it , how other people deal with it, to share ideas, and techniques.
Please do share your method then, so it can be discussed.
- Look to the left, Trade to the right - I am the system
  • #68
  • Feb 25, 2013 7:36pm Feb 25, 2013 7:36pm
How Do You Identify A Fake Breakout?

## we can only try look at small time frame ie m1 ,m5, m15 ,m30,( which tf ? depending on the terrain and speed of movement ) ##
( by looking at the small time frame,,we can quickly jump out when we feel that is A Fake Breakout )

## each person have different in terms of Identify A Fake Breakout (depending on their respective experiences )##

##There were identified from the velocity,,shape,,configuration,,
demarcation line,,levels,,,prices move in doubt,,the strength of motion ,,,etc,, etc,, etc
(there is no fixed rule // because it can change from time to time )##

##we will not always appropriate 100% in terms of Identify A Fake Breakout (it's about the probability) ##

it's just my opinion
perhaps others possessed a different opinion

salaam
  • #69
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:55am Feb 26, 2013 2:55am
Quoting smikester
There are about 149,000,000 opinions on the net. In Google, anyway. Maybe one of them has the answer? If you go to Forexhard's thread, I think it's called something like "stairsteps break outs", they have a novel way of dealing with it called "anti hedging". Basically it means keep taking a trade either side of your range until one covers all your losses and gives the original profit. You can do this without boxing a range. Just choose a (small) profit target and set a trade. It doesn't matter whether it is long or short. If it wins go to your...

i cant find the anti-hedging stuff in the 'stairsteps breakout' thread. can you point me towards the correct posts numbers ?
  • #70
  • Feb 26, 2013 7:30am Feb 26, 2013 7:30am
The fake out is quick usually its 3-4 fake outs before a reversal on the 5 min the spreads widen plus there quick and nasty moves. Look at volume increasing going into the fake outs the more trapped volume the more probable the reversal will be as market makers will have sufficient volume to capture to cover there transaction fees.
Find your Favourite Pattern
  • #71
  • Feb 28, 2013 3:11am Feb 28, 2013 3:11am
Quoting whatfx
i cant find the anti-hedging stuff in the 'stairsteps breakout' thread. can you point me towards the correct posts numbers ?
I think I may have meant "anti-martingale" which is described there as a strategy where a limited number of trades (usually up to 3 - 4) are taken off the range, each covering previous losses, until a conclusion is reached, i.e. the original target profit is achieved or you get rinsed. Not a good strategy in my opinion.
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  • #72
  • Last Post: Mar 14, 2013 11:17am Mar 14, 2013 11:17am
Oh. I just remembered a great one - method, that is.
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