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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #1,961
  • Edited 5:04am Feb 23, 2013 4:35am | Edited 5:04am
Quoting Infest
I will definitely focus A LOT on this next week, what do you think about this?
Well in theory it could work but I found that just using 1 to 2 lots on my 6 pip stop scalps resulted in 25-30% per week gains some weeks. The problem I encountered with this strategy was having no discipline and blowing up half of my account in single day by taking far too much risk. A huge emotional roller coaster.

My personal preference is slow and steady wins in the long run. You only need to make 1% per day to make a similar living standard to working (account balance according) and that really isn't difficult if that 1% is only 20 pips. Additional gains can be used to grow the account.

This week I was up 150 pips (weds), 80 pips (thurs) and 113 pips (friday) just by scalping the EU and only used 0.25 lots per position. That's $800+ for 3 days work with very little risk taken on a small account.

Now I made some other small gains on GU but a serious amount of errors on it and other pairs (total lack of discipline). Once I've ironed out those annoying errors then I'll be very comfortable doing this full time. Considering I've only been trading for 10 months then I'm very happy so far with my progress.

I'm thinking of just sticking solely to EU for my scalp account and applying my full focus to it. I really like how it moves and I can really sync in with it.
  • #1,962
  • Feb 23, 2013 6:22am Feb 23, 2013 6:22am
I know what you mean but I think this strategy is not about trading high risk, it is really more the opposite.

You just have to go back in history and see how was your performance. How often do I hit a winning streak of 4 + ?

If this happens on a regular basis, you probably could try compounding it.

Because all you ever risk really is your starting lot size. Lets say you start off with 0.25 lots per position. The table would look like this:

Risk: 25 $ - Profit - 20 $ - Lot 0,25
Risk: 45 $ - Profit - 36 $ - Lot 0,45
Risk: 81 $ - Profit - 65 $ - Lot 0,81
Risk: 146 $ - Profit - 117 $ - Lot 1,5

So you only risk your start position of 25 $ and add the amount of profit you make each time. As i said, this can increase your profits a lot if you have winning streaks. In the end you have made 237 USD out of your 25 $ by 1 winning streak of 4 trades. After that, you start off with your 25 USD to limit risk to a size you are comfortable (25 USD)

Of course you can trade this only by risking always the same amount, but you would need 10 trades. In this case it would be 4. Ok, you have some losers too in between, but if you can handle the emotion and really have a good scalping strategy, i see good changes that this works.

Btw: Do you use level 2 for trading / entry at levels?
  • #1,963
  • Feb 23, 2013 8:14am Feb 23, 2013 8:14am
Quoting Infest
I know what you mean but I think this strategy is not about trading high risk, it is really more the opposite.

You just have to go back in history and see how was your performance. How often do I hit a winning streak of 4 + ?

If this happens on a regular basis, you probably could try compounding it.

Because all you ever risk really is your starting lot size. Lets say you start off with 0.25 lots per position. The table would look like this:

Risk: 25 $ - Profit - 20 $ - Lot 0,25
Risk: 45 $ - Profit - 36 $ - Lot 0,45
Risk: 81 $ - Profit...
I can see the benefits of this if you start with a small account balance that you're totally comfortable with losing.

Although I think that as that initial balance grows then so does the psychological pressure to maintain winning streaks on an increased position size. Also, it may instill certain trading habits that can be difficult to break But hey, all I can say is to give it a demo and see how it plays out and let us know how it works.

Personally I learned the hard way when it comes to risk management and I think the key to long term success is rock solid discipline. My trading style is still too unpredictable for my liking but just bringing my position size into check has helped a lot.

I now only risk 0.5% of my account on any one trade (0.25% per entry) and no more than 1% total exposure. I know this doesn't sound exciting and those massive weekly % gains are a no longer possible but those nasty blow out days will also become thing of the past. Losing trades barely even make a dent into the balance.

I know about level 2 and a few of the techniques you can use with it but I don't think you need it and may take your focus away from the chart.
  • #1,964
  • Edited 11:27am Feb 23, 2013 10:39am | Edited 11:27am
I just made a simple statistic over 20 trades with different winning percentages.

I used the 4 sequence scalping method I explained above.

I tried to picture the worst case scenario in each of the 20 trades (always stop out last trade etc.)

The results are:

Account size: 5000 USD - Risk 100 USD (10 pips) - TP: 8 pips - restart after loss

Winning percentage 80% - without compounding: 5880 USD , with compounding: 7450 USD (3 winning streaks) , sum up: + 1570 USD
Winning percentage 80% - without compounding: 5880 USD , with compounding: 6500 USD (2 winning streaks) , sum up: + 620 USD
Winning percentage 80% - without compounding: 5880 USD , with compounding: 5550 USD (1 winning streak) , sum up: - 330 USD

Winning percentage 70 % - without compounding: 5520 USD , with compounding: 4440 USD (0 winning streak) , sum up: - 1080 USD
Winning percentage 70 % - without compounding: 5520 USD , with compounding: 5350 USD (1 winning streak) , sum up: - 170 USD
Winning percentage 70 % - without compounding: 5520 USD , with compounding: 6300 USD (2 winning streaks) , sum up: + 780 USD

Winning percentage 60 % - without compounding: 5160 USD , with compounding: 4280 USD (0 winning streak) , sum up: - 880 USD
Winning percentage 60 % - without compounding: 5160 USD , with compounding: 5330 USD (1 winning streak) , sum up: - 10 USD

Keep in mind, this is the worst case scenario. For example, at the 60% winning percentage, if you have 1 winning streak and not all the losers in beween 1-3 trades, you still walk away with just a small loss than without compounding!

But i think this analysis makes it clear: To compound, you need to have a winning percentage of probably more than 70 % that it pays off.
Attached you will find the average gain for 100 trades, this shows you need about 72% winning percentage to profit from this

If you have less than 72% percentage on a R:R 0,8 for 10 pips scalping, you are better off the standard way without compounding, because with a winning percentage of just <65%, you will destroy your account in the long run.

With 70%, you still make more money without compounding, so basically it shows that you need >72% no matter what in the long run


http://gyazo.com/b7df7f462e5b397ee2342620c89aa1d8.png
  • #1,965
  • Feb 23, 2013 4:49pm Feb 23, 2013 4:49pm
Was not able to trade that much lately thanks to some preparations for Japan and a project going on; BE last two weeks.
Will try to trade a little again in two weeks if time allows me, this time from Tokyo, should be fun
Wondering how the connection from Pepperstone servers will turn out there.. I have no clue, will see. Should be fine.
  • #1,966
  • Feb 24, 2013 8:33am Feb 24, 2013 8:33am
Quoting Robertk
Was not able to trade that much lately thanks to some preparations for Japan and a project going on; BE last two weeks.
Will try to trade a little again in two weeks if time allows me, this time from Tokyo, should be fun
Wondering how the connection from Pepperstone servers will turn out there.. I have no clue, will see. Should be fine.
I'll be in Thailand in April but will take timeout to recharge the batteries I think. Not sure the mrs will let me near a PC anyway!
  • #1,967
  • Feb 25, 2013 3:18am Feb 25, 2013 3:18am
how to stack up odds:

wedge broke and retested up trendline at supply zone


http://gyazo.com/31095966424d70e5c1b9c0102bbc00fe.png
  • #1,968
  • Feb 25, 2013 4:11am Feb 25, 2013 4:11am
technical EURJPY scalp... I only take profits of 7-10 pips so thats why I was exiting the trade, went for +25 pips

entry has been after we reached decision to break below previous support level, so first retest of supply

http://gyazo.com/889cddc68ae44cd38289c0fe8ff05704.png
  • #1,969
  • Feb 25, 2013 4:46am Feb 25, 2013 4:46am
EU swing going on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #1,970
  • Feb 25, 2013 4:48am Feb 25, 2013 4:48am
Quoting C-12
I'll be in Thailand in April but will take timeout to recharge the batteries I think. Not sure the mrs will let me near a PC anyway!
Thailand, wonderful! I have been there two times myself and I absolutely love that place. Both times I went to the southern part of Thailand(most of the small islands). Only been to the northern part for Chiang Mai. Its a shame really. I should go back there sometime and visit other parts as well.

Good thing about Thailand is that you can literally live as a king with not "that" much money on you. (sorry for going off-topic by the way, will get on-topic again if time allows me to trade )

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-g...2/P1020630.JPG
  • #1,971
  • Feb 25, 2013 7:04am Feb 25, 2013 7:04am
Quoting Robertk
Thailand, wonderful! I have been there two times myself and I absolutely love that place. Both times I went to the southern part of Thailand(most of the small islands). Only been to the northern part for Chiang Mai. Its a shame really. I should go back there sometime and visit other parts as well.

Good thing about Thailand is that you can literally live as a king with not "that" much money on you. (sorry for going off-topic by the way, will get on-topic again if time allows me to trade )
Oh yeah love the place, off to Krabi and the islands this time around. Although big Merv and George have put a dent into my holiday funds.
  • #1,972
  • Feb 25, 2013 7:05am Feb 25, 2013 7:05am
The wedge @ S/R flip really went off
http://gyazo.com/74029c25821c947abef01b598e6efea0.png
  • #1,973
  • Feb 25, 2013 7:09am Feb 25, 2013 7:09am
Quoting Infest
The wedge @ S/R flip really went off
Certainly did.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #1,974
  • Feb 25, 2013 7:33am Feb 25, 2013 7:33am
Minor premature exit and this may well go higher medium term but this works for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #1,975
  • Feb 25, 2013 7:39am Feb 25, 2013 7:39am
Quoting C-12
Certainly did.
Im on on the same boat ;-)

http://gyazo.com/d447da006c42431ca04457432779dfc7.png
  • #1,976
  • Feb 25, 2013 8:11am Feb 25, 2013 8:11am
took profit of a fake out of alle USD related pairs...

tried to escape and make new highs but failed at the newly created supply level

took a short for 8 pips, should consider staying longer now... or at least working with lvoe which can take off 2/3

today has been a great day... 83% stat, i also tried the 4 sequence scalping method and it worked the first time. at the second sequence, I got stopped out at BE on first try, so i started over, now i made this first trade for the first of four sequences:

http://gyazo.com/95f4935874820b0ca63f47b4e64c0a1f.png


first sequence demo test scalp (increase lot size *1.8) for R:R 0,8 trade (stop loss 10 pips)
remember: all you ever lose is about your initial stop loss = 10 pips = in my case: 100 demo USD

final risk:reward for this sequence: 8,5 : 1

http://gyazo.com/399ee158daea28ee14264b30b9273f4f.png
  • #1,977
  • Feb 25, 2013 9:34am Feb 25, 2013 9:34am
made a swing trade of EURUSD

sell at the same level, HTF S/R Flip zone, 3315 is strong resistance

http://gyazo.com/df3dbff40a8239a22de7dc2b09cb26d7.png
  • #1,978
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:53am Feb 25, 2013 10:53am
Closed shorts and left the far upper still running. Bit of an arse trying to manage trades when at work.
  • #1,979
  • Feb 25, 2013 11:24am Feb 25, 2013 11:24am
hello how is going on?
  • #1,980
  • Feb 25, 2013 11:24am Feb 25, 2013 11:24am
C12 you not missing any pip on table
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