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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,081
  • Feb 24, 2013 6:44am Feb 24, 2013 6:44am
Hi traders,
I'd like to submit to your judgement something I noticed after I red from fti how dealers conduct their business at tier 1 level.
Many times I see a trend develope during london mornings, then reverse around london lunch time (around 1200 GMT). Seems like european dealers "have lunch" or something and since they don't leave positions unattended, they stop "pumping" the market and it comes back toward its mean.
Then the trend resumes when NY opens, like US dealers took advantage from the retracement due to "EUR LUNCH" to get a better price to ride the trend themselves. Trend then has a tendence to stall toward EU close (around 1700GMT) as EU dealers go home.
If so, another important piece of info would be to take care not to carry our positions during "london lunch time".
On the other hand, waiting for the retrace during london lunch could be a weak spot in our enemy flank to start our attack sequence.
Always considering PA and with an eye to news in the US morning, which usually come around 1300 GMT.
Does this make any sense or should I wait for nurses forcing me to wear a VERY long sleeved shirt?
  • #39,082
  • Edited 7:29am Feb 24, 2013 7:06am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Hi traders,
I'd like to submit to your judgement something I noticed after I red from fti how dealers conduct their business at tier 1 level.
Many times I see a trend develope during london mornings, then reverse around london lunch time (around 1200 GMT). Seems like european dealers "have lunch" or something and since they don't leave positions unattended, they stop "pumping" the market and it comes back toward its mean.
Then the trend resumes when NY opens, like US dealers took advantage from the retracement due to "EUR LUNCH" to get...
if gets too rigid, is safer wear very long sleve shirt.
Flow my friend , flow.
Your observations not untrue. But is not written in stone. but generally terrain is such, not only europe, all sectors.
tokyo lunches 11am GMT-8, europe you already know. NY 12PM GMT-8 or 1AM daylight saving time.

and is not not to carry. just not get adventurous after about 15 mins into lunch. Lunch is only 1 hour, so hotdogs and sandwiches is good on menu.
fti special mackerel or tuna sandwiches is also good. But fti retired, lucky for the fishes.
Ai ya suddenly get craving for smoked salmon and cold octopussys. Where going get sashimi at this hour.

:r ofl: only a little fireworks. Is not easy play fireworks in rain.


regards
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  • #39,083
  • Feb 24, 2013 7:16am Feb 24, 2013 7:16am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Hi traders,
I'd like to submit to your judgement something I noticed after I red from fti how dealers conduct their business at tier 1 level.
Many times I see a trend develope during london mornings, then reverse around london lunch time (around 1200 GMT). Seems like european dealers "have lunch" or something and since they don't leave positions unattended, they stop "pumping" the market and it comes back toward its mean.
Then the trend resumes when NY opens, like US dealers took advantage from the retracement due to "EUR LUNCH" to get...


is not sarcasm my friend but what you said is really funny.
hmmm try get your hands on the teachings in the thread. learning is a lifetime persuit.

regards
  • #39,084
  • Feb 24, 2013 7:34am Feb 24, 2013 7:34am
Quoting cuthbert


is not sarcasm my friend but what you said is really funny.
hmmm try get your hands on the teachings in the thread. learning is a lifetime persuit.

regards
I'll wear just ONE sleeve for the moment then!
Could you please elaborate about what's so funny?
I red the thread more than once... Not ALL, you know, is 2550 pages, but first 250 I red more than once and think have a fair idea about what MO fti tried to hammer in my stone head.
Most links I have not been able to locate anymore, since they're 5 years old, but I put my hands on AOW and Ky too.
I know I'm a slow learner, my english's awful and I don't trust anyone, so I have to test everything by myself.
I was sure I would eventually say something stupid and make people laugh at me.
I just hoped it was not the VERY FIRST post here.
  • #39,085
  • Edited 7:58am Feb 24, 2013 7:38am | Edited 7:58am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
I'll wear just ONE sleeve for the moment then!
Could you please elaborate about what's so funny?
I red the thread more than once... Not ALL, you know, is 2550 pages, but first 250 I red more than once and think have a fair idea about what MO fti tried to hammer in my stone head.
Most links I have not been able to locate anymore, since they're 5 years old, but I put my hands on AOW and Ky too.
I know I'm a slow learner, my english's awful and I don't trust anyone, so I have to test everything by myself.
I was sure I would eventually say something...
no worry about being stupid or peeps laugh.
make sure you see book growth laugh is better. i think you already understand, only now need piece MO together that you can work consistenly to goals.
i believe for you should not be too much trouble. passion is there.

regards

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  • #39,086
  • Feb 24, 2013 7:54am Feb 24, 2013 7:54am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
I'll wear just ONE sleeve for the moment then!
Could you please elaborate about what's so funny?
I red the thread more than once... Not ALL, you know, is 2550 pages, but first 250 I red more than once and think have a fair idea about what MO fti tried to hammer in my stone head.
Most links I have not been able to locate anymore, since they're 5 years old, but I put my hands on AOW and Ky too.
I know I'm a slow learner, my english's awful and I don't trust anyone, so I have to test everything by myself.
I was sure I would eventually say something...
ok nice.
they manage their positions 24/7 five days a week.
Your observations might not be false but the premise you based on is not sufficient and appropriate.
why would they stop pumping when they don't leave their positions unattended to ' the question mark '
why retracement during lunch ' the question mark '

regards
  • #39,087
  • Feb 24, 2013 7:56am Feb 24, 2013 7:56am
Quoting fti
no worry about being stupid or peeps laugh.
make sure you see book growth laugh is better. i think you already understand, only now need piece MO together that you can work consistenly to goals.
i believe for you should not be too much trouble. passion is there.

regards
Thanks Chief, your confidence is sooooo appreciated!
I really don't mind ppl laughin' at me. If I make someone happy, that's not a bad thing.
For someone who's a little more Rock'n Roll oriented, like me, I like vv much a song titled "Go With The Flow" by Queens Of The Stone Age.
Fti always suggests to flow...


She said "i'll throw myself away,
They're just photos after all"
I can't make you hang around.
I can't wash you off my skin.
Outside the frame, is what we're leaving out
You won't remember anyway

I can go with the flow
But don't say it doesn't matter anymore
I can go with the flow
Do you believe it in your head?

It's so safe to play along
Little soldiers in a row
Falling in and out of love
With something sweet to throw away.
But I want something good to die for
To make it beautiful to live.
I want a new mistake, lose is more than hesitate.
Do you believe it in your head?


About the video... Well maybe that's TOO MUCH R'n'R, I'm not sure everyone here would appreciate it...
  • #39,088
  • Feb 24, 2013 7:59am Feb 24, 2013 7:59am
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  • #39,089
  • Feb 24, 2013 8:05am Feb 24, 2013 8:05am
Quoting cuthbert
ok nice.
they manage their positions 24/7 five days a week.
Your observations might not be false but the premise you based on is not sufficient and appropriate.
why would they stop pumping when they don't leave their positions unattended to ' the question mark '
why retracement during lunch ' the question mark '

regards
You're right cuthbert, it's just something I noticed many many times.
So I wanted to ask fti and others' opinion if should be something to take in consideration while dancing.
Of course I have no idea if traders leave the battlestations or not during their lunch time. Phew... I don't even know if they have lunch... Or if they're HUMANS for that matter!
It was just a simple way to express what I experience quite regularly.

Anyway fti, I DO LOVE when you say: "Ladies and Gentlemen, Battlestations!" It's SOOO COOL!
  • #39,090
  • Feb 24, 2013 8:12am Feb 24, 2013 8:12am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Of course I have no idea if traders leave the battlestations or not during their lunch time. Phew... I don't even know if they have lunch... Or if they're HUMANS for that matter!

neither did i see them firsthand. only second hand experience yet.
anyway i hope to see them in next few months.

regards
  • #39,091
  • Feb 24, 2013 8:26am Feb 24, 2013 8:26am
Quoting cuthbert

neither did i see them firsthand. only second hand experience yet.
anyway i hope to see them in next few months.

regards
Hey buddy, sure 'bout that??
Aren't you afraid?? You know, about 'em turning you into a statue with a glance, or kidnapping you to execute horrible experiments under their desks...
  • #39,092
  • Edited 8:45am Feb 24, 2013 8:35am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Hey buddy, sure 'bout that??
Aren't you afraid?? You know, about 'em turning you into a statue with a glance, or kidnapping you to execute horrible experiments under their desks...
What fear. I'll borrow this from chief and will make em toothless.
this is a classic plier. you know it made a lion's teeth disappear.
but the skill of being a dentist is also important. like MM being a tool and identification
of flow is more important.


regards
Attached Image
  • #39,093
  • Edited 10:38am Feb 24, 2013 10:17am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting cuthbert
What fear. I'll borrow this from chief and will make em toothless.
this is a classic plier. you know it made a lion's teeth disappear.
but the skill of being a dentist is also important. like MM being a tool and identification
of flow is more important.


regards
ai ya not yet christmas now la.
Inserted Video


cuth, you seem not able see his observations.
it not all together wrong.
he has a point there.
only its dangerous be rigid, sometimes there lots volatility in lunch zone, because markets thin on liquidity.
Normally during lunch only 1 dealer of every dealing team is on the ball at that times.

Lunch zone is also where is very likely have retracements for extended runs.
If markets run extended and not retrace at lunch be very very suspicious.


regards
  • #39,094
  • Feb 24, 2013 12:34pm Feb 24, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Hi traders,
I'd like to submit to your judgement something I noticed after I red from fti how dealers conduct their business at tier 1 level.
Many times I see a trend develope during london mornings, then reverse around london lunch time (around 1200 GMT). Seems like european dealers "have lunch" or something and since they don't leave positions unattended, they stop "pumping" the market and it comes back toward its mean.
Then the trend resumes when NY opens, like US dealers took advantage from the retracement due to "EUR LUNCH" to get...
WOW

You just stumbled onto something that I haved used in my FX trading for years.

I will be glad to explain it to you and others.

I rarely trade between 7:00 PM EST when the Asian markets start their day. At 10:00 PM EST Hong Kong joins in and the Retail Traders in Asia have been hard at work setting the table for the Frankie Institutional Trading Houses.

That isFrankfurt and by 3:00 AM EST the European Equity Markets start trading. That is the FTSE and the DAX and the CAC.

From 3:00 AM EST until the first European data comes out the Equity markets set the tone. Then new fundamental data comes out and the MONEY FLOW equation: takes over.

Around 7:00 AM EST the North American Retail Traders start coming onboard and then North America data starts coming out at 8:30 AM EST and the Dow Futures start firming up.

Just like in Europe the North American Institutional Houses are now at their desks eating up their breakfast. (Retail Traders)

Then at 9:30 AM EST the Equity Markets are open in North American.

At 11:00 AM EST things start winding down in: the European Equity Markets (11:30 AM EST) The Close and by Noon EST the European Institutional Houses and their FX Traders have gone out to Party and just gone home.

In Conclusion these patterns usually repeat each day and being aware of them allow you to go in the same DIRECTION as the Institutional FX Traders and get to eat some food as well.

I have just given you the basics as there is more to knowing how to trade this then I have explained.

I just posted to confirm your recent discovery and give you a basic explanation.
  • #39,095
  • Feb 24, 2013 1:20pm Feb 24, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
WOW

You just stumbled onto something that I haved used in my FX trading for years.

I will be glad to explain it to you and others.

I rarely trade between 7:00 PM EST when the Asian markets start their day. At 10:00 PM EST Hong Kong joins in and the Retail Traders in Asia have been hard at work setting the table for the Frankie Institutional Trading Houses.

That isFrankfurt and by 3:00 AM EST the European Equity Markets start trading. That is the FTSE and the DAX and the CAC.

From 3:00 AM EST until the first European data comes...
pro pulsing? powderful stuff.

regards
  • #39,096
  • Feb 24, 2013 1:29pm Feb 24, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting CurrencyMan

.......

......... I have just given you the basics as there is more to knowing how to trade this then I have explained.........




Oh wait !! I mean....






cheers
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #39,097
  • Feb 24, 2013 1:38pm Feb 24, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
WOW

You just stumbled onto something that I haved used in my FX trading for years.

I will be glad to explain it to you and others.

I rarely trade between 7:00 PM EST when the Asian markets start their day. At 10:00 PM EST Hong Kong joins in and the Retail Traders in Asia have been hard at work setting the table for the Frankie Institutional Trading Houses.

That isFrankfurt and by 3:00 AM EST the European Equity Markets start trading. That is the FTSE and the DAX and the CAC.

From 3:00 AM EST until the first European data comes out...
Thanks for sharing CurrencyMan!
You just put some other tool in my toolbox!
The hard part comes every day with trying not to put a nail in my foot with them. I'll try with workboots.

After a week of substained dancing, could be a more consolidative week ahead, with few important news.
Anyway I'll try to stay tuned and go with the flow.
  • #39,098
  • Feb 24, 2013 6:22pm Feb 24, 2013 6:22pm
Quoting fti
now peeps begins see market structure?at last.
is good read the terrain carefully.for those of you who are analysing the old hand held sessions.
may be now you can better understand why certain skews are aggressive or non.
although this is not the complete pic, it is part of the decision process.

regards

For those who cannot see it still.
recently was an example.
the ec did not take out the top in ny close as expected.
when did it happen? far east session, another round into europe zone.
then the ironlady announcement, then the...
wow,,,I get a lot of extra lessons,,
, thanks,,mr.fti,
salaam
  • #39,099
  • Feb 24, 2013 6:37pm Feb 24, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting fti
trying not miss out , important questions.

Your question is whether stop loss harms.

In fact the purpose of a stop loss, is to protect from over losses.
Be it over loss of riskable thresholds or overlosses of account net worth.
In that sense is a good thing. In fact , like it or not every leveraged account have a stop loss.
is known as your margin call point.

The weaknesses of stop loss is the way its being used by some.
Because these are shown in markets they can cluster and become targets for the peeps who are advantaged to disadvantage...
##So the question if stop loss harms is not right question.
Rather i perfer you think if you want use stops, whats the best practises and most efficient ways impliment them.##

i will think it over,, thanks,,
salaam
  • #39,100
  • Feb 24, 2013 8:24pm Feb 24, 2013 8:24pm
Quoting fti
maybe i watch old movie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8TCkQNueY4

is based on a true story. About the boxer rebellion.
Only the accuratecy of details, i not very sure.
The names of the peeps exist historically.

i gonna hate play soccer against this chap.
he seems have advance skills using feet.

I remember now, these the peeps taught bruce lee the shadowless kicks. The red door peeps, grandmaster sifu huang was one.

which reminds me do my exercises. right sholder still bad but loosen some.
oh one trick sifu taught me long...
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