The Meaning of Moody's Downgrade of the UK: Nothing | Forex Factory

The Meaning of Moody's Downgrade of the UK: Nothing | Forex Factory

The Meaning of Moody's Downgrade of the UK: Nothing

From marctomarket.com

Moody's took away the UK's triple A rating late Friday. A ratings downgrade has long been rumored, and although the timing is always surprising, the move itself has long been anticipated. Sterling slumped on the news in thin dealings, losing a cent in about 30 minutes. When it comes to corporate ratings we can appreciate that rating agencies may have access to private information. They may also be of value in some developing countries, where information is more difficult to secure. However, when it comes to large developed countries, the rating agencies have access only to public information and it is the same ... (full story)

Comments / Top
Subscribe

Feb 23, 2013 6:35pm

nothing !! COZ market already make new low 2013 before moody . that happened after uk downgrade rumor about 2-3 days before moody did. soooooooo market already anticipated for it. moody failed to break 2013 - low for friday closing. next week ? i don't know !!! hahahhaha

Feb 23, 2013 6:09pm

I afraid it is true. I mean nothing...nothing more than I said. Take a look at the British press and a column on Bloomberg and other mainstream and social media are talking about how this is a setback for the UK, how this is an opportunity for the UK government to move away from their austerity agenda. Earlier Forex Factory posted my technical outlook for sterling and I look long-term charts and note that sterling has broken out (to the downside) are a multi-year trading pattern. I show the correlation of sterling to the FTSE and discuss what to expect going forward. It means nothing perhaps in some existential sense. I mean it does not cure cancer let alone the common cold. But it does offer insight that cannot be gleaned by reading the papers and offers new facts, like the correlations, that cannot be found elsewhere.

Feb 24, 2013 6:49am

Quoting Casimir

Disliked

A ruler on a chart is not "insight", nor is a simple correlation a "new fact". I could write a robot to automatically replicate your "technical outlook" on sterling in 5 minutes.

To your credit at least you have done that work correctly. This article contains an absolute falsehood in its title just to be controversial and gain attention. In my eyes that's far worse than merely being simple.

At the end of the day, I'm the idiot here for even taking the time to react to you. I understand that you are in business to sell lots of cheap,...

Ignored

No you are just a smug jerk, who does not know what he is talking about. I do not sell my analysis. I provide it free to forex factory. Second, my views are clear. Sterling has fallen 12 cents before the downgrade. The 1 cent drop in thin late afternoon Fri dealings may be more a function of market thinness not atrue signal. I say the downgrade, the loss of UK's AAA rating does not have investment consequences. I am saying UK equities may be attractive.

For the record besides saying there is nothing new in what I wrote, you did not levy any substantive critcism to my arguments. They were silly personal attacks on me personally. If you are trying to hurt my feelings, you will have to try harder. Ha a falsehood in the title. Get over yourself.

Feb 24, 2013 7:12pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

The GBPUSD rally has just begun. Newbies who dont understand this market will be roasted.

Ignored

the release of the downgrade timed well to boost the bears in the retail market and set them up for a loss when the rally starts. Not that this 'rally' will erase the losses so far in 2013 for cable

Feb 25, 2013 9:14am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

And who is at the controls of this detailed mechanism you describe?

Ignored

What 'mechanism'? i did not say that someone purposely did this, simply that its timing had the effect that i mentioned. Opening price was still the lowest for 2.5 years...

Feb 24, 2013 7:46am

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

Probably all priced in already.

Pound should skyrocket against the USD soon.

Ignored

Yes, but i think it will open on monday at 1.5033-1.5080 somewhere in that range.

And again I will long it and wait 5600

Feb 23, 2013 5:23pm

i troll the news to continually point out how useless the information is to a serious trader.

read this or any of the news postings and i dare anyone to tell me how it has helped.

Feb 23, 2013 5:39pm

News come to move the price and to support technical analysis.

Feb 25, 2013 1:46pm

so all of you are telling me the market only presents opportunities when "NEWs" gives participants direction... okay.

Feb 24, 2013 10:39am

relax chandlermarc we respect ur opinion.

Quoting chandlermarc

Disliked

No you are just a smug jerk, who does not know what he is talking about. I do not sell my analysis. I provide it free to forex factory. Second, my views are clear. Sterling has fallen 12 cents before the downgrade. The 1 cent drop in thin late afternoon Fri dealings may be more a function of market thinness not atrue signal. I say the downgrade, the loss of UK's AAA rating does not have investment consequences. I am saying UK equities may be attractive.

For the record besides saying there is nothing new in what I wrote, you did not...

Ignored

Feb 23, 2013 6:00pm

It impacted on the market.

Feb 24, 2013 5:13am

Probably all priced in already.

Pound should skyrocket against the USD soon.

Feb 23, 2013 5:52pm

what you really mean is YOU haven't figured out how to trade the news yet. Probably never will either.

Quoting enochben

Disliked

i troll the news to continually point out how useless the information is to a serious trader.

read this or any of the news postings and i dare anyone to tell me how it has helped.

Ignored

Feb 23, 2013 6:12pm

Quoting enochben

Disliked

i troll the news to continually point out how useless the information is to a serious trader.

read this or any of the news postings and i dare anyone to tell me how it has helped.

Ignored

It's the linked opinion pieces that are true crap.

This article should have been titled "I do not care about important things."

Feb 23, 2013 7:39pm

Quoting chandlermarc

Disliked

I afraid it is true. I mean nothing...nothing more than I said. Take a look at the British press and a column on Bloomberg and other mainstream and social media are talking about how this is a setback for the UK, how this is an opportunity for the UK government to move away from their austerity agenda. Earlier Forex Factory posted my technical outlook for sterling and I look long-term charts and note that sterling has broken out (to the downside) are a multi-year trading pattern. I show the correlation of sterling to the FTSE and discuss what...

Ignored

A ruler on a chart is not "insight", nor is a simple correlation a "new fact". I could write a robot to automatically replicate your "technical outlook" on sterling in 5 minutes.

To your credit at least you have done that work correctly. This article contains an absolute falsehood in its title just to be controversial and gain attention. In my eyes that's far worse than merely being simple.

At the end of the day, I'm the idiot here for even taking the time to react to you. I understand that you are in business to sell lots of cheap, low quality, easy to produce financial content to various public outlets. Taking objection to you is like replying to a spambot.

Feb 24, 2013 12:13am

Dudes, not sure I get the critic of Chandlermarc. He's saying the downgrade doesn't mean anything. Ok, we'll, is anyone hear surprised by the downgrade after all the news, negative out looks, and falling gbp? Would anyone say "Yes" to this? Really?

The rest of the article is repeating facts, which no one disputes. If you do, just cite your source, and it's a done deal.

Enochben, his point is that this could give the UK opportunity to move away from austerity. If it did, it WOULD be news worth trolling for, wouldn't it? A reversal of policy can be 100s of pips.

Feb 24, 2013 1:53am

The behaviour of the msm in the uk is defensive of this downgrade, I've believed for some time that the coalition had their narrative ready to counter the downgrade and true to form they've pointed to it not affecting the USA or France negatively.

Feb 24, 2013 11:09am

Marc's analysis is the finest non promotion, ergo completely free and unfettered, advice and analysis on here, the rest is mainly vain glorious self promotion to get click rate to sell advertising space for peanuts. To think some of you fools can't separate the wheat from the chaff is hardly surprising, but that's why guys like Marc take a coin out of the market and 9.5 out of 10 of you never will.

Feb 24, 2013 12:57pm

Well according to my cycles the GBPJPY is due to make a turn in the london session, I mapped out the whole year when I looked at Jan the GBBJPY Market Map caught every turn, except one.

Mike Haran

I posted the analysis on my blog which I started this week

Feb 24, 2013 8:58pm

Quoting Trader88q

Disliked

Yes, but i think it will open on monday at 1.5033-1.5080 somewhere in that range.

And again I will long it and wait 5600

Ignored

Give me one seat on your bullish train. I entered few long orders and expected the retrace will take the GU back to 15500 area in 1 or two weeks. Good luck if you're in

Feb 25, 2013 2:35am

And who is at the controls of this detailed mechanism you describe?

Quoting inpatient

Disliked

the release of the downgrade timed well to boost the bears in the retail market and set them up for a loss when the rally starts. Not that this 'rally' will erase the losses so far in 2013 for cable

Ignored

Feb 25, 2013 2:36am

Trading what you think, not what you see...interesting 'hedge'

Quoting ForexRatVN

Disliked

Give me one seat on your bullish train. I entered few long orders and expected the retrace will take the GU back to 15500 area in 1 or two weeks. Good luck if you're in

Ignored

Feb 25, 2013 12:39pm

'Da market' doesn't give two s.h.i.t.s. about retail traders

Quoting inpatient

Disliked

What 'mechanism'? i did not say that someone purposely did this, simply that its timing had the effect that i mentioned. Opening price was still the lowest for 2.5 years...

Ignored

Feb 24, 2013 10:35am

agreed

Quoting JollyBean

Disliked

Probably all priced in already.

Pound should skyrocket against the USD soon.

Ignored

Feb 23, 2013 6:00pm

Cable moving 100 pips means nothing? Marc Chandler means nothing.

Trader#A8D6

Feb 24, 2013 9:11am

An expert trader uses facts and acumen. A true trader must not dismiss @chandlermarc well written thoughts. The UK downgrade is not as bad as the headline sounds that is if you read Moodys statement. Market reaction thin market or not was not dire. GBP drop was expected knee jerk and not too much. 80pips drop off 15240 during a major downgrade is nothing. Again what happened to FTSE futures? Just nothing.
There will be no change in the policy in the UK because of this downgrade. Rather we could see some business friendly actions like tax cuts for businesses including capital gains. GBP further decline could import more inflation to UK economy. Policy makers will not smile at further decline in the Sterling here.
As a trader I expect a surprise move on Sterling contrary to widely held views so will be my bet

Trader#A8D6

Feb 24, 2013 9:46am

Quoting climber123

Disliked

Dudes, not sure I get the critic of Chandlermarc. He's saying the downgrade doesn't mean anything. Ok, we'll, is anyone hear surprised by the downgrade after all the news, negative out looks, and falling gbp? Would anyone say "Yes" to this? Really?

The rest of the article is repeating facts, which no one disputes. If you do, just cite your source, and it's a done deal.

Enochben, his point is that this could give the UK opportunity to move away from austerity. If it did, it WOULD be news worth trolling for, wouldn't it? A reversal of policy...

Ignored

Arguments must be based on facts not personality attacks which no one cares about. If one has a contrary opinion..should state clearly and convincingly instead of being driven by own position. If you are short Sterling there are many million reasons why UK is in tatters; also if you are long there are millions of reasons why UK remains one of the few safe heavens around. In forex know that it is usually a pair of two countries. While we are at all time lows with Australasian currencies when compared with GBP we are far higher when compared to YEN and emerging market currencies as ZAR, Mexican PESO and so on. Pound sterling is not only the pair with USD. Be careful

Feb 24, 2013 1:28pm

GBP-USD1.5102 Price of 1 GBP in USD 0.0148 1.00% 14:24:55 ET on 02/24/2013.

Trader#E297

Feb 24, 2013 4:17pm

Quoting jaygee

Disliked

what you really mean is YOU haven't figured out how to trade the news yet. Probably never will either.

Ignored

Hi Jaygee, I saw you longing GBP/USD at 1.5281 x2 - was wondering if you have any further advise on that?

Trader#A7F3

Feb 23, 2013 6:03pm

when they point things out... ignore!
when they choose to ignore... pay attention!

Trader#070B

Feb 24, 2013 1:15am

TASE down now 2%... nothing ???

Trader#08D3

Feb 24, 2013 2:42pm

GBPUSD crashing down to 1.5081

Trader#A8D6

Feb 24, 2013 6:25pm

The GBPUSD rally has just begun. Newbies who dont understand this market will be roasted.

Story Stats

Feb 23, 2013 5:19pm
Posted by
MarcChandler

Fundamental Analysis

33

5,529