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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #421
  • Jun 8, 2006 1:09pm Jun 8, 2006 1:09pm
itme, you're doing awesome buddy.
  • #422
  • Jun 8, 2006 1:37pm Jun 8, 2006 1:37pm
Hi Itme,
I dont know if you were talking about my comments or misanderstood my post
If it is, I was just telling to MaXeY to don't take signs from others as gold, but to be able to decide by himself.
Beside this I was also saying that people like you can be very helpful, and looking for hints from others can be very important, but at the same time to don't expect that hints are 100% garanteed and that then is not your fault if it goes wrong.
I look hints from everybody but then decide always by myslef, sometimes complitly against all, but then I can only blame or congratulate with myself .

thank you very much for your contributions
  • #423
  • Jun 8, 2006 1:43pm Jun 8, 2006 1:43pm
Thursday 6/8/2006 13:15 ET

TS#95 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4190 - 1.4200

Stop is 1.4211

Target #1 is 1.4100
Target #2 is 1.4030
Target #3 is 1.3950
Target #4 is 1.3900

Risk is max. 31 pips

Reward is min. 80 / 150 / 230 / 280 pips (T1, T2, T3, T4)

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 2.6 to 1 (T#1) and 4.8 (T#2) and 7.4 to 1 (T#3) and 9.0 to 1 (T#4)

For research purposes only.
  • #424
  • Jun 8, 2006 2:27pm Jun 8, 2006 2:27pm
TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75 - stop is needed

In numerous previous trades we hit our stop exactly. On many others we exceeded it by five or fewer pips. On many of these cases the pair went straight to our target after touching our stop. After careful study we decided to increase our stop slightly so that this wouldn't happen as frequently. You will note that the price of GBP/JPY came to within one pip of our recommended stop last night. So we have corrected the problem. However, we think we'll add a few more pips to provide a little more breathing room in the future.

The trade signal refered to above is this:

__________________________

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET

TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75

If anyone holds a short position on GBP/JPY then we advise a stop of 211.08

Thousands of analysts all over the world are staring at the wedge formation on this pair that has been in formation for 40 days.

If it breaks out downwards, as we suspect it will, then the movement will be very strong and go far. Our first downwards target is 208.75, 200 pips below the entry price.

Likewise, if it breaks out upwards above the 211.60 trendline, then there will be a very strong upwards movement. Our first upwards target is about 213.50, almost 200 pips above the breakout line.
  • #425
  • Jun 8, 2006 5:17pm Jun 8, 2006 5:17pm
Hi ITME,

Your trading signal is extremely helpful .With the principal of low risk but high reward , the final result will prove that account will grow in the end .
Only 3 or 4 correct trades over 10 trades at over 100 pis per good trade
will compensate for the loss of 7 bad trades of average 100 pips ( 7 times 12 pips ).
Is that right ITME ?
So ignore all naysayers and keep continue your fabulous work.
We all newbie are rooting for you ITME .
  • #426
  • Edited 3:41am Jun 9, 2006 3:34am | Edited 3:41am
Friday 6/9/2006 4:15 ET

TS#96 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8458 - 1.8460

Stop is set at 1.8491

Target #1 is 1.8300

Target #2 is 1.8250

Risk is max. 37 pips

Reward is min. 154 pips (T#1), 204 pips (T#2)

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.2 to 1 (T#1) and 5.5 to 1 (T#2)

Confidence level: 80% for Target #1

For research purposes only.
  • #427
  • Jun 9, 2006 4:23am Jun 9, 2006 4:23am
I hope you didnt misanderstand my comment aswell
maybe I cant write good english, but I wanted to say exactly the same as you
  • #428
  • Jun 9, 2006 4:41am Jun 9, 2006 4:41am
Thanks for your comments, Trucco. I understand them perfectly, and totally agree. If I had had anything to add or disagree, then I would have said so. The real purpose of our thread is exactly what we have said all along - it is a learning experience for us. If others take it in this light, then they won't get the wrong idea. Perhaps others can learn along with us, and in addition, they might be alerted to some good trade opportunities.

But they can't expect all of the signals we generate to be winners. If we were already winning all of our trade predictions, then there would be no need to be doing this experiment and learning process!!! We would be long since sipping pina coladas on the beach in the Carribean, or feeding the hungry masses.

And any suggestions or ideas from the community are welcome and appreciated. Keep them coming. We are curious what others think of what we are doing, or if someone can suggest an improvement to our methods.
  • #429
  • Jun 9, 2006 4:48am Jun 9, 2006 4:48am
Quoting itme
Thanks for your comments, Trucco. I understand them perfectly, and totally agree. If I had had anything to add or disagree, then I would have said so. The real purpose of our thread is exactly what we have said all along - it is a learning experience for us. If others take it in this light, then they won't get the wrong idea. Perhaps others can learn along with us, and in addition, they might be alerted to some good trade opportunities.

But they can't expect all of the signals we generate to be winners. If we were already winning all of our trade predictions, then there would be no need to be doing this experiment and learning process!!! We would be long since sipping pina coladas on the beach in the Carribean, or feeding the hungry masses.

And any suggestions or ideas from the community are welcome and appreciated. Keep them coming. We are curious what others think of what we are doing, or if someone can suggest an improvement to our methods.

Hi Itme, Thanks I thought that newbieinfx might have found my post as a critic towards you, which was absolutly now
  • #430
  • Jun 9, 2006 4:48am Jun 9, 2006 4:48am
..asbolutly NOT
  • #431
  • Edited 9:59am Jun 9, 2006 4:56am | Edited 9:59am
Friday 6/9/2006 5:45 ET

Given that we see the GBP/USD rising to 1.8458 and then falling 158 pips, it is not unlikely that USD/CAD could rise again to new highs tomorrow or after the release of the morning trade data, particularly if the trade data for the USA tomorrow morning is favorable to the USA. We predict that USD / CAD will fall to about 1.1165 while GBP/USD rises. A conservative trader could exit USD/CAD at about that price and pocket about 70 pips in profit. The higher risk taker, or someone convinced that USD/CAD will fall for whatever reasons, can stay in the trade. The inbetween trader could raise their stop to zero risk and then just let the trade ride to see whether it will meet its target without being stopped out.

In any case, it is necessary to Raise the stop to 1.1275

Original trade signal:

Thursday 6/8/2006 13:15 ET
TS#94 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1240 - 1.1250
Stop is 1.1265
Target #1 is is 1.1100
Target #2 is is 1.1040
Target #3 is is 1.0935
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 135 / 195 / 300 pips (T1, T2, T3)
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.5 to 1 (T#1) and 6.5 (T#2) and 10 to 1 (T#3)
For research purposes only.
  • #432
  • Edited 10:09am Jun 9, 2006 5:23am | Edited 10:09am
Friday 6/9/2006 6:10 ET

TS#89 Sell EUR/JPY - a picture perfect trade - almost!

On Wednesday we issued trade signal TS#89 to sell EUR/JPY at 145.16. It subsequently went down to meet our first three targets almost precisely in sequence on each pulse downwards, ending precisely at our Target #3. Let's see if the action over the next 24 hours takes it down to our fourth target at 143.24.

The only problem - it rose to 30 pips over our tight stop before going to hit each of our targets in sequence!

We saw it rise to the high of 145.67, but didn't get a chance to prepare a re-entry instruction. We shorted it however near to the top, and made a tidy profit.

Upon re-examination, our two models did predict the higher high of this trend before the reversal, however it took hours of careful analysis to confirm the proper trend reversal predicted price level, time which we could not invest in the original analysis.

By the way, if one sold EUR/JPY right now at 144.27 with a stop at 144.53, the likelihood of hitting the Target #3 of 143.24 before hitting the stop would be quite good. The reward : risk ratio is about 3.3 to 1

________________________________________________--

Original Trade signal:

Wednesday 6/7/2006 10:30 ET
TS#89 - EUR/JPY is presenting an ideal selling opportunity right now at 145.16

Stop is 145.38

Target #1 is 144.50

Target #2 is 144.12

Target #3 is 143.84

Target #4 is 143.24

Risk is only about 25 pips
Reward for Target #4 is 189 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 7.6 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #433
  • Jun 9, 2006 5:28am Jun 9, 2006 5:28am
Hi

Any view on the euro at the moment ??

Bear
  • #434
  • Jun 9, 2006 6:00am Jun 9, 2006 6:00am
Friday 6/9/2006 6:45 ET

EUR/USD will descend from approximately its current price of 1.2665, although it could pop up to about 1.2700 the next time GBP/USD rises, and then it will descend to 1.2570, and even lower depending on the figures that are released later this morning by the US Trade Department.

Here is what DailyFX says, "A Bottom Here or 100 Points Lower Will Depend on Trade Balance"

We don't think that the trade figures matter - the price is already fated to fall to 1.2570. But whether it goes further depends on the content of the news.
  • #435
  • Jun 9, 2006 6:10am Jun 9, 2006 6:10am
Quoting itme
Given that we see the GBP/USD rising to 1.8458 and then falling 158 pips, it is not unlikely that USD/CAD could rise again to new highs tomorrow or after the release of the morning trade data, particularly if the trade data for the USA tomorrow morning is favorable to the USA. We predict that USD / CAD will fall to about 1.1165 while GBP/USD rises. A conservative trader could exit USD/CAD at about that price and pocket about 70 pips in profit. The higher risk taker, or someone convinced that USD/CAD will fall for whatever reasons, can stay in the trade. The inbetween trader could raise their stop to zero risk and then just let the trade ride to see whether it will meet its target without being stopped out.

In any case, it is necessary to Raise the stop to 1.1175

Original trade signal:

Thursday 6/8/2006 13:15 ET
TS#94 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1240 - 1.1250
Stop is 1.1265
Target #1 is is 1.1100
Target #2 is is 1.1040
Target #3 is is 1.0935
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 135 / 195 / 300 pips (T1, T2, T3)
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.5 to 1 (T#1) and 6.5 (T#2) and 10 to 1 (T#3)
For research purposes only.

Good one man
good employment change made the goal
pity I didnt trade this
  • #436
  • Jun 9, 2006 6:47am Jun 9, 2006 6:47am
Friday 6/9/2006 7:30 ET

TS#94 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1240 - 1.1250
Stop is 1.1265

Target #1 is is 1.1100
Target #2 is is 1.1040
Target #3 is is 1.0935

USD/CAD made a bee line just now for our first target of 1.1100, and is still a few pips short. I still think there's a chance of it reversing and setting a new high, depending on the US trade data in one hour's time, so be careful. Perhaps taking some profits at this time is in order.

The rapid fall in USD/CAD pushed EUR/CAD down as well, moving it almost to our second target:

Thursday 6/8/2006 13:15 ET

TS#95 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4190 - 1.4200

Stop is 1.4211

Target #1 is 1.4100
Target #2 is 1.4030
Target #3 is 1.3950
Target #4 is 1.3900
  • #437
  • Edited 10:13am Jun 9, 2006 8:15am | Edited 10:13am
Friday 6/9/2006 9:00 ET

The move down was very swift and strong. Our reading of this pattern is that it has reached a reversal point in between Target #2 and Target #3. If fell shy of Target #3 by only 10 pips. The safest course is to exit at about 1.3960 to 1.3980 and consolidate your profits of about 220 pips.
Trade signal:

Thursday 6/8/2006 13:15 ET

TS#95 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4190 - 1.4200
Stop is 1.4211

Target #1 is 1.4100
Target #2 is 1.4030
Target #3 is 1.3950
Target #4 is 1.3900
  • #438
  • Edited 10:17am Jun 9, 2006 8:22am | Edited 10:17am
Friday 6/9/2006 9:00 ET

USD/CAD has come to a viable pivot point in between Target #1 and Target #2 at 1.1070. We suggest taking some or all of profits would be wise at this point, as there is no guarantee of further downwards travel. Profit at this stage, after spread is paid, is 170 - 180 pips.

Exit at 1.1070

__________________________________


 Original trade signal:

Friday 6/9/2006 7:30 ET

TS#94 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1240 - 1.1250
Stop is 1.1265

Target #1 is is 1.1100
Target #2 is is 1.1040
Target #3 is is 1.0935

For research purposes only.
  • #439
  • Jun 9, 2006 9:37am Jun 9, 2006 9:37am
Quoting danegg7
itme, you're doing awesome buddy.
+1

I agree!
  • #440
  • Jun 9, 2006 10:36am Jun 9, 2006 10:36am
UR awesome dude...keep it coming



Quoting itme
Friday 6/9/2006 9:00 ET

USD/CAD has come to a viable pivot point in between Target #1 and Target #2 at 1.1070. We suggest taking some or all of profits would be wise at this point, as there is no guarantee of further downwards travel. Profit at this stage, after spread is paid, is 170 - 180 pips.

Exit at 1.1070

__________________________________


Original trade signal:

Friday 6/9/2006 7:30 ET

TS#94 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1240 - 1.1250
Stop is 1.1265

Target #1 is is 1.1100
Target #2 is is 1.1040
Target #3 is is 1.0935

For research purposes only.
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