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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #1,121
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:05am Feb 13, 2013 3:05am
Hello,
a quick update on the 4-hour chart of the Euro FX currency futures (shorts stops being hit as I add this chart ):

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360745712

The 1.3480 area is still acting as a resistance on the Euro FX currency futures. I need to see price above this level.

I need to see the price of the Euro above the 1.3510 level. Above this area we can have a reasonable certainty that bears on the daily timeframe will have been gone to, so there is no more interest in selling the Euro.
Until that happen a retest and break of 1.3360 is still possible, unfortunately.

PS: the related video-analysis is on my blog

Have a profitable day.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,122
  • Feb 20, 2013 1:19am Feb 20, 2013 1:19am
Morning friends..

Euro looks ready to re-test the recent high & potential break up to new highs after the recent correction from 1.37..

H4 SEX+UTD+GO setups from 1.34~1.32 static demand zone..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H4-20130220- SEX+UTD+GO.png Size: 50 KB


Dollar Index flashing RSI exhaustion against the L/T TL despite the recent Yen & CAD weakness.. Daily bias for a return to the recent range lows @ 79..
Lead dogs EURGBP & EURJPY coiling Daily & Weekly at demand zones while painting monthly continuation bars..
Cable could give the whole structure a big boost should the old fella come to life & re-sync with cousin Euro after the recent aberration from their historical lead lag relationship..

Hello Stocky & fibstalker (Giuseppe sounds better then "stalker" LOL),
nice analysis.. thank you for sharing..
  • #1,123
  • Feb 20, 2013 11:21am Feb 20, 2013 11:21am
HI CND, thanks for welcoming me.
Well Fib-Giuseppe did not sound great, would it?
But not worries, I am a stalker only on price... but agree with you a bit aggressive name, although very opposite to my character.
Did even do the civil service as opposed to the military service, so...
Enjoy my review below and let me know your thoughts...

Cheers


Euro very iffy and dodgy, but still short imho.

Here's my updated view on the 4-hour chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361380460

The 1.3530 area of resistance and short selling never traded (too big of a front-run), but program trading participation has evidently pushed price lower. The 1.3540 area of setup has targets in the 1.3270 area (1st target) and the 1.3130 area (2nd target)

The 1.3276 level is a very important level to monitor. It being pierced on the downside would open up the possibility of a retrace all the way into the 1.2900 area of support, which I have been now anticipating since some time (find the reason in Feb 8th video). Notice that the first target of the current short setup in the 4-hour timeframe in the 1.3410 area is below that 1.3276 level. So if the current setup in the 4-hour chart reaches the already confirmed 1st target, we could continue much lower (into 1.2900).

With the violation of the 1.3350 level on the downside we should no longer see strong interest from bulls in the 4-hour timeframe. However we could still see a retrace onto the 1.3360-90 area. We can still have a retrace up to the 1.3380 area but the move lower should then resume.

If the move continues lower it could meet the 100-day SMA at the 1.3130 area. There we could get a bounce into the 1.3215-45 or even 1.3260 area before a continuation lower into the 1.29s.

I am going to publish a video review on the Euro-dollar later on.

Trade safe.
Cheers
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,124
  • Feb 21, 2013 12:47am Feb 21, 2013 12:47am
Thanks for your views fibs.. I was "rubbing your nose" in fun there with your choice of handle, so don't take it too seriously.. mind you, I still think your "Giuseppe" name sounds great as it has that gusto authoritative tone to it..

My H4 setup was invalidated with the break below 1.3333 so an extension down to 1.3150 may now be in the cards.. however, IMO price could encounter strong demand down @ 1.3050~1.3000 if seen as anything below will invalidate the secondary M/T bias from November & put 1.2650 back in focus..

EURUSD H4 Scenarios @02212013
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H4-20130221-Demand Zones.png Size: 72 KB




Quoting fibstalker
HI CND, thanks for welcoming me.
Well Fib-Giuseppe did not sound great, would it?
But not worries, I am a stalker only on price... but agree with you a bit aggressive name, although very opposite to my character.
Did even do the civil service as opposed to the military service, so...
Enjoy my review below and let me know your thoughts...

Cheers


Euro very iffy and dodgy, but still short imho.

Here's my updated view on the 4-hour chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361380460...
  • #1,125
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:13am Feb 21, 2013 10:13am
Hello cdn,
I am very sporty, so you can pull my nose as you wish, not really offending me. I am generally quite an happy guy and like joking. so really no mess there... (I am a no-ego guy).
Non need to make all justifications on how great my name is.... it's just a name..
Thanks for attempting though... LOL

Quoting cdndollar
Thanks for your views fibs.. I was "rubbing your nose" in fun there with your choice of handle, so don't take it too seriously.. mind you, I still think your "Giuseppe" name sounds great as it has that gusto authoritative tone to it..

My H4 setup was invalidated with the break below 1.3333 so an extension down to 1.3150 may now be in the cards.. however, IMO price could encounter strong demand down @ 1.3050~1.3000 if seen as anything below will invalidate the secondary M/T bias from November & put 1.2650 back in focus..

EURUSD H4 Scenarios...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,126
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:13am Feb 21, 2013 10:13am
Hello all,
my updated view on the Euro FX currency futures:

Yesterday evening the Euro FX pierced the 1.3276 level that we were closely watching and that decreed the opportunity of a larger move into the 1.2900 area. Indeed, the market continue lower and the selling resumed during the Asian session.
The Euro also hit the first target in the 1.3270 area and is now headed into the 1.3130, where we could get a bounce.
http://elitefive.files.wordpress.com...ng?w=650&h=373Euro FX futures contract, 4-hour chart – February 21st, 2013



The plan is the same as yesterday (see above picture). If the relative lows are in at the 1.3474 level (due to an inner traditional move) we could see a retrace into the 1.3240 to 1.3300 area before the move lower can resume.
The target is now confirmed at 1.2900 and it is just a matter of how and when price can get there. This could happen in the coming two weeks.


The video-analysis is on the Blog.
Trade safe.
Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,127
  • Feb 21, 2013 12:15pm Feb 21, 2013 12:15pm
Hello,
this is a comparison I made between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Let me know what you think.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361469514

There is a major difference on the daily chart which can be spot analyzing the two charts compared above. Price action of both charts is the same but; while the Euro failed the next move higher, showing a Euro that is going to weaken faster than the Japanese yen in the coming days,that did not happen to the USD/JPY. So that means that bulls are not interested too buy the EUR/JPY pair at this stage (see below), while they could still be involved in long positions in the USD/JPY pair.

The USD/JPY pair (see picture above) did not fail the current long extension setup. Above the 91.60 level longs are still valid with a 1st target at the 94.90 area (scenario 1). The scenario 2. for the USD/JPY would develop if price falls below the 91.60 level. In that case we could see a move into the next level of support down at the 89.40 area.

As anticipated, the main difference between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is that the latter failed the extension long. That happened the very moment price moved below the 123.30 level on Friday last week.The price is now in scenario 1, moving in traditional shorts with resistance between 125.30-125.80. First target is down at 121.80. Scenario 2 would kick if price would not bbounce off the next support level at 119.60 which lines up to the 2nd target in the 119.90 area. In that case, we could see a continued move lower.

The level of support on the EUR/JPY pair will be identified when the EUR/USD pair will also find support. I anticipate this support will come at 1.2900. Both USD/JOY and EUR/JPY could find their support when that happens.

More in my mid-week update.
Let me know what you think.
Thank you
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,128
  • Feb 22, 2013 12:48am Feb 22, 2013 12:48am
Quoting cdndollar
M/T players may want to watch Gold & GBP like a hawk here for more clues as the pair may be the wild cards which could add fuel for the bulls & fire for the bears from around these level..
Hello fibs..
My simplistic near term reading of inter-market PA indicate most pairs are at/near good/major support/resistance after the recent flush..
I think there's good odds for them to pause..snooze.. consolidate & retrace from these levels..

USDJPY+EURJPY+EURUSD+XAUUSD H4 Scenario:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4x PA-20130222-EU+XAU+EJ+UJ H4.png Size: 81 KB




Quoting fibstalker
Hello,
this is a comparison I made between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Let me know what you think.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361469514

There is a major difference on the daily chart which can be spot analyzing the two charts compared above. Price action of both charts is the same but; while the Euro failed the next move higher, showing a Euro that is going to weaken faster than the Japanese yen...
  • #1,129
  • Feb 22, 2013 2:39am Feb 22, 2013 2:39am
Agree for a consolidations, but don't see EUR/JPY to previous highs until next support. USD/JPY may move laterally until EUR/USD completes its correction.
Time will tell. Thanks CND very appreciated.
Cheers
G.


Quoting cdndollar
Hello fibs..
My simplistic near term reading of inter-market PA indicate most pairs are at/near good/major support/resistance after the recent flush..
I think there's good odds for them to pause..snooze.. consolidate & retrace from these levels..

USDJPY+EURJPY+EURUSD+XAUUSD H4 Scenario:
Attachment
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,130
  • Feb 22, 2013 2:42am Feb 22, 2013 2:42am
GM,
EUR/USD now showing resistance at 1.3230.This will be confirmed below 1.3210. This resistance/short setup has targets below at 1.3130and then 1.3070. Price on its way onto the 1.2900 swing target.

Trade safe, it's Friday.
Ciao
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,131
  • Feb 22, 2013 3:06am Feb 22, 2013 3:06am
The EUR/USD has the 1.3190 support area but I don't think the relief rally will go much higher than 1.3300 / 1.3340-80 areas of resistance.
Price will tell. I look at it from a swing from higher levels, and from an add opportunity viewpoint.

Quoting cdndollar
Hello fibs..
My simplistic near term reading of inter-market PA indicate most pairs are at/near good/major support/resistance after the recent flush..
I think there's good odds for them to pause..snooze.. consolidate & retrace from these levels..

USDJPY+EURJPY+EURUSD+XAUUSD H4 Scenario:
Attachment
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,132
  • Feb 22, 2013 7:21am Feb 22, 2013 7:21am
Quoting fibstalker
The EUR/USD has the 1.3190 support area but I don't think the relief rally will go much higher than 1.3300 / 1.3340-80 areas of resistance.
Price will tell. I look at it from a swing from higher levels, and from an add opportunity viewpoint.

Good eyes fibs.. looks like the EUR/USD lagger could print your 1.3300 / 1.3340-80 areas soon..

Horse racing Fx style..
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361538937
  • #1,133
  • Feb 22, 2013 7:50pm Feb 22, 2013 7:50pm
Who knows, maybe the highs for next week are in already. I don't think there is a lot of interest in pushing this chap higher.
Also bad news from Europe today... we will see if it will affect tomorrow's open.

Quoting cdndollar
Good eyes fibs.. looks like the EUR/USD lagger could print your 1.3300 / 1.3340-80 areas soon..

Horse racing Fx style..
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361538937
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,134
  • Mar 1, 2013 12:30pm Mar 1, 2013 12:30pm
Finally back after the Italian Elections (and who cares would you say? We are here to make money! I know). A good result of my party (the M5S new party with 25%+ of votes)...

... for an update on the Euro. My swing shorts are in deep green. Anyway I have kept publishing my view on the Euro (check the collection of posts in the 'Euro/Dollar' thread) and the possibility for it to move into 1.2900. We are a few pips away from that level and this is my updated view:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362155728

As anticipated in the last days and weeks price is coming all the way back into the 1.2900 area of support. On the daily chart (above) the current short setup 1.3160 area is pushing price lower into the first target 1.2950 and second target at 1.2840 which lines up with that 200-day SMA. That is where I see price stopping and reversing.

Below the 1.2700 level the Euro has the potential to correct all the way back into the 1.2130 area. But I consider this a less probable scenario at the moment. Reality on the US Dollar should pop in again, and we could see a reversal. Such reversal could take 15 to 20 sessions to take place though (if history repeats).

Scenario 1. If price finds support at the 1.2840-1.2900 area and this case will be confirmed with price above 1.2950 and then 1.3040. If price bounces and moves above 1.3040 we could get a lateral move in March, with two retest of lows (M-for-Murder pattern against support at in the 1.2900 area) before seeing a move into 1.41. This would leave time to the dollar to invert the current long trend.

Scenario 2. Price keeps moving lower below 1.2840 after a bounce and it breaks the 1.2700 area. In this case we could just continue lower into 1.2130 maybe before a large bounce

The related video will be on my blog. Let me know what you think.
Enjoy.

Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,135
  • Mar 3, 2013 5:20am Mar 3, 2013 5:20am
EURUSD COT @02262013:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR COT-20130226.png Size: 123 KB


After the great February flop flushing some longs off the Euro wagon, this week's PA could set the Risk tone going forward in March..

EU+EG+EJ @03032013:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362300662

Inter-market studies suggests pause & consolidation prior to M/T trend continuation or reversal..
Lead dogs EURGBP & EURJPY levels to watch are .8700/.8570 & 122.50/118.80 respectively.. bullish bias consolidation above & bearish M/T momentum below..

Cable continue to be the M/T wild card.. the 1.5000/1.5150 levels could determine the near & mid term fate for the European cousins from here.. While sustained US equities pressure on the 2007 highs & Gold above 1600 could give the whole Risk On structure a boost while any corrective weakness & Gold dropping below 1550 could add more fuel to the recent bearish momentum..

Above 1.30 pause & consolidate 1.3000~1.3150.. above 1.3150 ->1.35 -> new highs..
Below 1.30 bias for re-test of 1.2900~1.2850.. below expose 1.2650 again..


USDX vs EURUSD @03032013:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362300662
  • #1,136
  • Mar 9, 2013 9:26am Mar 9, 2013 9:26am
Hello all,
hope you are having a great weekend. Here in Italy it's cloudy so...good time for a hot chocolate, relax and a view on the Euro FX currency futures valid for next Monday March 11th...

The Euro FX futures is still in measured moves lower on the daily chart. The last setup had resistance and short entry around the 1.3170 level with a stop above 1.3205 which was never hit. The first target in the 1.2950 area was only hit yesterday. Those who though the BCE rally was the start of the move higher of the Euro were mistaken.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362841948

If we consider the 1.2950 first target hit on Friday we have two possibilities now. At the beginning of the week we could rally into the 1.3040 area (or even higher breaking the 1.3065) level and then come back into the 1.2900 support; or,price could just keep moving lower into the 1.2900 area of support. Hereunder are the two scenarios:

Scenario 1. Price does not trade the next traditional short at the 1.3040 area, but just keeps moving lower into the 1.2900 area of support. We could witness participation in the 1.2900 from professionals and Program Trading.

Scenario 2. If the Euro gets a bid on Monday price could move higher into the 1.3040 area or above and then resume the move lower into the 1.2900 area. In the 1.2900 area or slightly below it we could witness participation from professionals and Program Trading.

As usual I am interested in your views and, if I don't see your replies please remind them to me with a PM (sometimes I jump over answers, sorry for that).
Thank you.

PS: the related video analysis will be on my blog shortly.

Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,137
  • Edited Mar 10, 2013 5:03am Mar 9, 2013 8:28pm | Edited Mar 10, 2013 5:03am
Fibs, hope you're having a nice w/e..
1.3000 had been a tough nut to crack for the past 2 weeks with the Other camp & Herbie bears shouting for 1.2900 & below.. not sure about professionals and Program Trading, but we may had witness old fashion participation from some elephants ahead of 1.2900..

more daily "WhipSawTitist" or en-route to abyss?
Attached Image



Friday's slug-fest..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU M15-20130308 bears vs elephants.png Size: 105 KB


Interesting week ahead..


Quoting fibstalker
Hello all,
hope you are having a great weekend. Here in Italy it's cloudy so...good time for a hot chocolate, relax and a view on the Euro FX currency futures valid for next Monday March 11th...

As usual I am interested in your views
Cheers
G.
  • #1,138
  • Mar 10, 2013 11:01am Mar 10, 2013 11:01am
As every week, I am open to both scenarios and if we go higher I see 1.3170 to oppose initial support. Lateral for sure for some time (maybe 2 weeks) and then we either break 1.2700 or start moving higher with the potential of 1.41 in 2-3 months...
that's what I see...

Have a great weekend.

Quoting cdndollar
Fibs, hope you're having a nice w/e..
1.3000 had been a tough nut to crack for the past 2 weeks with the Other camp & Herbie bears shouting for 1.2900 & below.. not sure about professionals and Program Trading, but we may had witness old fashion participation from some elephants ahead of 1.2900..

Interesting week ahead..
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #1,139
  • Mar 10, 2013 11:06am Mar 10, 2013 11:06am
gj up this week
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,140
  • Mar 12, 2013 11:16pm Mar 12, 2013 11:16pm
Post NFP Update:
1.3000 & under-shoots to 1.2950 continue to meet strong demand ahead of the widely expected 1.2900~1.2850 after last week's NFP shot-out..
Market refilling the per-release liquidity gap with a break above 1.31 could inflict damage on the momentum bear camp & initiate a squeeze up to the 1.32~1.33 zones again..

Dow showing no sign of fatigue after breaking above multi-year high (monthly close) with the media & gurus hopping on the "non-sustainable" camp..

Gold meeting 1550 M/T demand plus sustain break above 1600 & Cable re-gaining 1.50 after testing 1.48 could add substantial fuels here for the bull camp..

Sustained weeklies below 1.3000 will invalidate the secondary M/T bias from November & expose 1.2650 again..

EURUSD D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU D1-20130313-000859.png Size: 68 KB


EURUSD H4 Box & Diamond:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H4-20130313-001312 diamond2.png Size: 42 KB



With 1.3000~1.2950 meeting strong M/T demand, weak shorts & late comers may be at risk here with the market repeating last year's July & November short squeezes..

Open order & Positions @11172012 Turn vs 03082013
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362727210
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