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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,021
  • Feb 21, 2013 8:52am Feb 21, 2013 8:52am
Quoting money89
Thought you were a full time trader..

Mrs V trades most of the time at the moment while Vantage looks after the family business.

  • #6,022
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:03am Feb 21, 2013 9:03am
Quoting frank.david
Yesterday GU storm after News came to the notice board (UN Emlymnt).Do you pause trading after/before news or have a plan for this?

frank
Apart from those high news items listed Mrs V is not scared to trade before news is released IF the set up is right and meets trade rules. She is one of those that believes for the most part the big boys know whats coming and if the candles/formations that we look for are there before news she will trade them.

I can only recall her getting whipped out once in the 5 months that she has actively traded this way.

But like I said the candles must = those in trade rules (so dble top/bottom, hl/lh, engulfing) and if she sees that during the formation of a candle the pa is really jumpy then she'll leave. But normal steady up and down moves as candle forms as per normal price action then no problem.
  • #6,023
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:19am Feb 21, 2013 9:19am
Quoting money89
Thought you were a full time trader..
I was until 15 months or so ago. Now back into family business. Never worked so hard in my life and I've never been shy of hard work!!

Now mentor to Mrs V who is at the moment putting my previous efforts to shame. In my defense I'll say she has a better personal coach than I ever had. Its one thing to trade and learn through hard knocks, its a whole different ball game to have someone thats been round the block to sit you down and go through every losing trade to say why it was a no no.

Does she still slip up from time to time sure. This month 4 losing trades I think it is. 1 was a simply awful trade, exactly the opposite of what we are trying to do. Complete brain freeze. 1 was debatable poor reading of what was actually in front of her, wanted to get back into trend before flow had confirmed, 1 was system loss no problem, 1 was the news loss (I seem to recall her saying she shouldn't have done that pre news entry so the candles must not have been set up right).

In the grand scheme of things thats brilliant, we're all human and will make errors, get into none system trades etc. You just try and minimise them. She is on track for the best trading month we have ever had, even if she does nothing between now and the end of the month.
  • #6,024
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:19am Feb 21, 2013 10:19am
Mrs V missed the trend system trades for a couple of reasons. She did get a CT EJ buy for +40. I won't go into details as its not per thread, she did manage to keep the account ticking over.
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  • #6,025
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:39am Feb 21, 2013 10:39am
Quoting matlobien
Hey Dave.

Really enjoying this thread.

Can you please post your template and indicators. It seems that my weekly pivots is a bit off and I am looking for the 3 bar reversal indicator.

Keep up the good work.

Kind regards

3 bar reverse added to 1st post. The pivots indi's for D and W are both there as is the RN's. Won't let me attach 15 min template says file too large. Use 1hr template change 50 ema to 200 and add the RN's indi with grid space 250 for 5 digit currency. 25 for 4 digit currency. I have show fibos true for 15 min chart also.
  • #6,026
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:12pm Feb 21, 2013 10:12pm
Quoting Vantage
3 bar reverse added to 1st post. The pivots indi's for D and W are both there as is the RN's. Won't let me attach 15 min template says file too large. Use 1hr template change 50 ema to 200 and add the RN's indi with grid space 250 for 5 digit currency. 25 for 4 digit currency. I have show fibos true for 15 min chart also.
Thanks Boet.

You are a great mentor ahd teacher.

I must attend a formal function tonight and will miss the Stormers Bulls game.

Hope you can enjoy it.

Thanks again.

  • #6,027
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:51pm Feb 21, 2013 10:51pm
Quoting matlobien
Thanks Boet.

You are a great mentor ahd teacher.

I must attend a formal function tonight and will miss the Stormers Bulls game.

Hope you can enjoy it.

Thanks again.

Cheers mate, thanks for those kind words.

Will do, goooooo Bulls!!
  • #6,028
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:52pm Feb 21, 2013 10:52pm
Recap 21 Feb

EUR - View was: D lower high, engulfing negative close. 13260 gave support for about a week in Jan. The D close should follow through lower, bias down. We did fall.

GU - Bias down. We fell into Frankfurt open but from there a strong push up.

EJ - D lower high, engulfing negative close. 1hr lower high lower low flow. Bias down, support level 123.00. Fell 80 pips below the 123.00 support.

EUR GU EJ 22 Feb

EUR - D negative close stopped at the next identified resistance level 1.3166/W S2 1.3181. 4hr showing lower wicks and divergence, RSI crossed above signal line on an open candle. 1hr showing divergence and the higher low following the divergence played out nicely in Asian session. 1hr still on lower high lower low flow. There is nothing to suggest that this is anything other than a rally in down trend. We could fall today or in two days. Short term counter trend buy (but that ship may already have sailed), looking for return to down trend, bias down.

GU - D closed a hammer and with Asian move up already up 200 pips from yesterdays lows. 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Unless there has been a fundamental shift caused by news would expect some multiple day reversal pattern to play out. Would normally consider a day like to day as opportunity to buy and sell should good set ups arrive. Like EUR the counter trend move up may have gone too much to enter safely. We had hit 50% retrace of last leg down. So now the bias would be to wait for sells.

EJ - D suggests down but for now the move below the 123.00 support level has been rejected. 4hr has not yet closed above RSI signal line/8lwma. Should that happen then a move up attempt might be made.

Friday mornings are often volatile around London open and we don't generally trade that session (often very good trades in the hours preceding).
  • #6,029
  • Feb 22, 2013 2:17am Feb 22, 2013 2:17am
Mrs V sold GU at 1.5280, got to +20ish and stop at BE.

Will post charts later if it plays out.
  • #6,030
  • Feb 24, 2013 2:21am Feb 24, 2013 2:21am
Recap 21 Feb
EUR - View was: There is nothing to suggest that this is anything other than a rally in down trend. We could fall today or in two days. Short term counter trend buy (but that ship may already have sailed), looking for return to down trend, bias down. Lots of upper wicks around London open, fell nice after LO. At US open another upper wick with a shooting star and we fell nicely as per bias.

GU - View was: Would normally consider a day like to day as opportunity to buy and sell should good set ups arrive. Like EUR the counter trend move up may have gone too much to enter safely. We had hit 50% retrace of last leg down. So now the bias would be to wait for sells. There was a double top and then a negative close in US session started move down as per bias. The big drop only happened very late in session with GBP getting a rating down grade.

EJ - View was: D suggests down but for now the move below the 123.00 support level has been rejected. 4hr has not yet closed above RSI signal line/8lwma. Should that happen then a move up attempt might be made. Upper wicks after London open and a negative close hammer signaled move down.

Friday mornings are often volatile around London open and we don not generally trade that session (often very good trades in the hours preceding).
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  • #6,031
  • Feb 24, 2013 4:48am Feb 24, 2013 4:48am
Entry was late by few pips.
Green dotted line is the Entry and Red line SL.
Though closed 40% partially. I held the TP open.
Have to see how this one open's tomorrow.
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My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,032
  • Feb 24, 2013 5:12am Feb 24, 2013 5:12am
Quoting money89
Entry was late by few pips.
Green dotted line is the Entry and Red line SL.
Though closed 40% partially. I held the TP open.
Have to see how this one open's tomorrow.
I'm curious why my chart is different to yours?
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  • #6,033
  • Feb 24, 2013 10:55am Feb 24, 2013 10:55am
Quoting money89
Entry was late by few pips.
Green dotted line is the Entry and Red line SL.
Though closed 40% partially. I held the TP open.
Have to see how this one open's tomorrow.
Very nice though.

Only TWT if the down grade reaction lower will follow through or not. Best guess is it will, there does not seem to be too many signs that the UK economy is getting any better.
  • #6,034
  • Feb 24, 2013 1:22pm Feb 24, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting Vantage
Recap 21 Feb

GU - View was: Would normally consider a day like to day as opportunity to buy and sell should good set ups arrive. Like EUR the counter trend move up may have gone too much to enter safely. We had hit 50% retrace of last leg down. So now the bias would be to wait for sells. There was a double top and then a negative close in US session started move down as per bias. The big drop only happened very late in session with GBP getting a rating down grade.

.
As there was a pinbar in Daily TF. I was actually bullish the very next day, but later as US gave a negative close. I did get into short position. What i didn't understand here is that, you were saying it's a day for both buy and sell, whereas i was only bullish until US session dropped down.
May i know why did you assume it would be a both buy and sell day ?
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,035
  • Feb 24, 2013 2:23pm Feb 24, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting money89
As there was a pinbar in Daily TF. I was actually bullish the very next day, but later as US gave a negative close. I did get into short position. What i didn't understand here is that, you were saying it's a day for both buy and sell, whereas i was only bullish until US session dropped down.
May i know why did you assume it would be a both buy and sell day ?
Buy day, possible reasons an over size down candle (on 20th) is often the final blow out in a move, then as you say pin bar can follow up higher.

Sell day possible reasons, well actually a whole stack more. For the indi watchers RSI could not cross up above signal line, we could not cross the 8 lwma. This was admittedly made more difficult from the over size neg close on 20th pulling price away from the ma. For the price action watchers we have had no dble bottom/higher low on daily, no close higher than prev 2 candle closes, no trend line break. There was no news that I was aware of that changed the fundamentally weak nature of GBP, so why should it go up?. Whilst we could have gone up (and a positive close would have completed a morning star pattern) for me it was just as likely that this was a possible rally in downtrend.

So I would say until you have D price action confirming the move up like we had on 30/31 Jan and 7 Feb (crosses of RSI, 8lwma, TL breaks, 3 bar reversals) that there must always be the strong possibility that (a news item that shifts the market an exception) it will be a rally in downtrend. The days mentioned above had even more reasons to have the chance of follow through higher than the pin bar. They might well have given good intra day trades but were still ultimately rallies in down trend.
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  • #6,036
  • Feb 24, 2013 3:12pm Feb 24, 2013 3:12pm
Thanks for the reply. It was really helpful.
On a side note, Is it correct to assume that the 3bar reversal could be a swing high or low/fractal high or low ?
Couldn't find the exact 3bar reversal pattern though.
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,037
  • Feb 24, 2013 10:10pm Feb 24, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting money89
Is it correct to assume that the 3bar reversal could be a swing high or low/fractal high or low ?
Couldn't find the exact 3bar reversal pattern though.
Yes could be a swing/fractal high/low.

Called a 3 bar reversal by the person that wrote the alert for me. The bar giving the alert must close above/below the previous 2 bars closes (so 3 in total). One of the 2 previous bars if selling must be a positive close, if buying must be a negative close. That hopefully will give genuine signals back into trend when ever there has been a CT rally.
  • #6,038
  • Feb 24, 2013 10:31pm Feb 24, 2013 10:31pm
25 Feb

EUR - D closed a doji, in itself not a strong signal. 4hr still clinging to the lower high lower low flow, divergence is showing and RSI has crossed above its signal line. Until flow properly moves higher bias down.

GU - GBP was down graded late Friday night, it remains to be seen whether this bad news will follow through. Had a gap down which is likely to be closed, so a possible move up to 1.5160 area. Still no reason to believe its anything other than a rally in downtrend. Bias down.

EJ - Rejected another attempt to go below 123.00. D closed an inside bar, still just on a lower high lower low. 4hr had a higher low positive close hammer. The gap up will need to be closed suggesting a move down to 123.20 area.
  • #6,039
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:12am Feb 25, 2013 10:12am
Mrs V was very distracted today with the fridge repair guys in and out a few times. Was away from the computer for the exit at RN but got +21.

Bias for GU was down, lots of upper wicks on 1hr, 15 min lh little/no lower wick.
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  • #6,040
  • Feb 25, 2013 2:11pm Feb 25, 2013 2:11pm
Quoting Vantage
Mrs V was very distracted today with the fridge repair guys in and out a few times. Was away from the computer for the exit at RN but got +21.

Bias for GU was down, lots of upper wicks on 1hr, 15 min lh little/no lower wick.
Now I started to understnd the system bit by bit.
If I assume it right, During the London open and new york session we look at the 3bar reversal signal ?

Cause there are many arrows all the day, which confuses us unless we focus on key levels and Time of the day.

and one more thing is that, which one do you give much weight to on 3bar reversal ? H1 or M15 during entry ?

Forgive me for my silly question's, As you know, I'm still learning..!! So, bit curious runnin behind my mentor..
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
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