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  • #1,141
  • Feb 20, 2013 5:22am Feb 20, 2013 5:22am
So now your seeing the third push down toward the previous LOD the consolidation point it's making is not a w or a significant pullback to warrant the long entry, so still waiting the key is be patient and wait for the right setup to complete the pattern.
  • #1,142
  • Feb 20, 2013 5:54am Feb 20, 2013 5:54am
EurUSD - so they used the us housing to create te pullback which we are about 17 pips off the LOD today, my expectations are a retest if the LOD and then the long entry signal which for me is a green bar AFTER a succession of RED bars to today's LOD.

I hope you are seeing my thought process. Again be patient if this is the shift bar oh well there's another day, but at this point I am not ruling the trade off the table.
  • #1,143
  • Feb 20, 2013 6:42am Feb 20, 2013 6:42am
Here we go, it's session change over to US, and we see 1 red candle back to the LOD the current candle is red but not closed so I am looking for the drop into the LOd zone. The signal again for me will be a green candle close after the retest of the LOD. I am looking to go LONG off the LOD retest, which will complete the W.
  • #1,144
  • Feb 20, 2013 6:49am Feb 20, 2013 6:49am
Wow FX-Trader! You really grasp the concept of SM. I'm impressed by your analysis.

I did struggle to follow your thought process. Obviously, yours must be the result of experience and can't be compared to mine, who only start learning SM for weeks like you said.

Now, I'm beginning to question the logic behind SM teaching. He claimed that he learned all his stuff from ONE retired market maker who has now died and can't be verified. But giving him the benefit of the doubt, how on earth do you expect ONE person to understand the workings of hundreds/possibly thousands of MMs around the globe? Unless you're the head of IMF, World Bank, Fed Reserve, or Illuminati, you would never understand completely how MM works. That's why I'm sifting through the gems and rubbish out of SM teaching atm.

Anyway, you obviously understand level counting. I think this is quite subjective and I couldn't see your level 3 on both cases. On the first one, I'm seeing that as level 2 consolidation, then stop hunt high and reset. Price didn't manage to get to level 3. On the second level 3, I'm seeing it as a long consolidation of level 2, because price isn't going anywhere until that upward bullish movement which again I count as a reset. Like I said in my previous post, level counting is inconclusive. Some people get it and see it as bright as the day light, some are clueless in seeing the levels.

If you understand level counting, do you use the concept of locking the PFs, or trading the safety trades? Out of level 1 consolidation as Steve put it.

My problem is I still don't understand how to identify a PF. Would a spike bar be enough to be considered as a PF? Is a PF time specific? So only certain PFs are valid if they happen at certain times? Would appreciate your comment on my chart.

Btw, what do you mean by M2 range? Is that an offline M2 chart with range bar?

Thank you so much for helping me FX-Trader.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,145
  • Feb 20, 2013 7:03am Feb 20, 2013 7:03am
We are locked for a go now, so I want to see a green candle after all these red retrace candles to the LOD.
  • #1,146
  • Feb 20, 2013 7:44am Feb 20, 2013 7:44am
I found combining theories together wave counts, fibs, smart money, and news events to formulate my own system works best. I think the most important thing is when doing your analysis is have a balanced view point if a candle closes here its authentic if a candle closes here its a failure and use risk management take a loss if you have to and switch sides.

The more the market reveals itself to a trader the more inclination you should have bearish and bullish and go with the market not looking for huge moves but small gains with a chance of a big move.
Find your Favourite Pattern
  • #1,147
  • Feb 20, 2013 9:47am Feb 20, 2013 9:47am
Ish- if your going to try and level count or wave count not Elliot wave but cycle count, you need to do all that on your 1hr. Your plan should be to set a bias on the 1hr and only take setup a that coincide with that bias. Otherwise your sure to get whipsawed by every M&W on the 15m chart. Time of day and week also have a play in this. If today fails, the suggested reason why may be answered by mid week reversal. Today is Wed. But manipulation may be hard at work.

Redo your analysis of levels in a 1hr chart and re post, see what happened to the boxes you drew on the 15m. The boxes should overlap and touch otherwise your missing the breakout points that allow price to move to a new level new plateau, or new step how ever you want to call it.
  • #1,148
  • Feb 20, 2013 9:52am Feb 20, 2013 9:52am
BTW - just entered a small long at the ADR low. Lets see what happens, stop is tight at 10pips and target is a quick 25 due to time of day.

***For educational purposes of course - make your own assesments and then proceed with caution.***
  • #1,149
  • Feb 20, 2013 10:48am Feb 20, 2013 10:48am
Quoting FX-Trader
BTW - just entered a small long at the ADR low. Lets see what happens, stop is tight at 10pips and target is a quick 25 due to time of day.

***For educational purposes of course - make your own assesments and then proceed with caution.***
Is it possible to post your Myfxbook or FF TradeExplorer to follow your analysis? I'm sure most will agree with me that it is difficult to follow your text ("red candle", "green candle", "shift bar", "current candle") without any time reference (EST or GMT) or location reference (price and chart). You put in your time and effort in your posts, let's hope we can follow your analysis if we can tell where on the chart you were referring to.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #1,150
  • Feb 20, 2013 12:07pm Feb 20, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting FX-Trader
Again if you want to learn the method break it down to its simplest form, price and look for repeatable behavior patters knowing that it's a visual numbers game so when targets are met then they break not when a number of days is hit. It's all about wealth/price.

I am keeping positive because I finally see the light, and reading the B/S posts over the last few days I felt I had to pipe up. Until you give something a college try you really can't knock it. Trading is not an easy endevor if it was everyone would do it. Just like anything put in the...
Great advice, FXTrader. I think your views and advice are right-on.

Best,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,151
  • Feb 20, 2013 11:19pm Feb 20, 2013 11:19pm
Thanks FX-Trader. I did follow your suggestions and found that the 1H chart indeed gives me a different picture than a 15M chart. See my chart below. I think I should only see the bigger picture on a 1H chart. 15m chart is strictly for precise entry.

I'm still unsure about picking up the PFs though. Do we have an agreed definition of what a PF looks like?

I like Pipanator approach of taking what works for you from various sources. I never believe in polarization. That someone is 100% right or 100% wrong. But sifting through to get the gems is what proven to be difficult. And it is so very easy to have an illusion of knowledge.

Btw Pipanator, what do you mean by smart money?

Also, are you using M2 range bar chart FX-Trader? I can't see how you can trade that chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,152
  • Feb 21, 2013 8:47am Feb 21, 2013 8:47am
Quoting FX-Trader
Eu on the 200ema 15m now, TDI oversold, M2 in range looks to like a confluence point is setting up. Just need a hesitation bounce now.
Adding Chart for referrence...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-15m.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #1,153
  • Feb 21, 2013 8:54am Feb 21, 2013 8:54am
Quoting FX-Trader
EurUSD - so they used the us housing to create te pullback which we are about 17 pips off the LOD today, my expectations are a retest if the LOD and then the long entry signal which for me is a green bar AFTER a succession of RED bars to today's LOD.

I hope you are seeing my thought process. Again be patient if this is the shift bar oh well there's another day, but at this point I am not ruling the trade off the table.
Adding chart for referrence....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-15m.jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #1,154
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:03am Feb 21, 2013 9:03am
Quoting FX-Trader
We are locked for a go now, so I want to see a green candle after all these red retrace candles to the LOD.
Added chart for referrence...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-15m.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #1,155
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:28am Feb 21, 2013 9:28am
So in Review - what happened? Only 2 things can happen we are either right or were wrong. In this case the analysis was correct but they game was modified perhaps due to Fed Minutes. But using a tight stop we can preserve wealth and play again another day. The move was over extended are we in LEvel 4? One can view yesterday as a mid-week reversal and today as a straightaway off that Peak made yesterday which then would suggest tomm's bias be Stop Hunt High - Drop. The key is set a plan and then stick to it. Mark your charts every day the same way, perform the same drills and same analysis each and every day. To be consistent you need to be consistent with your analysis 1st. Whether it be this method or any other method changing mid-stream will always lead to whipsaws and failure.

I am still learning this method myself practicing day in and day out so I will not be posting like this daily as it is tiresome to do and trade, prob the reason most don't do it while learning. I don't mind commenting on your work so feel free to post your Pre-Market directional bias and why and maybe together we can push forward. It's best to master a few pairs at a time then trying to look at several so I would suggest E/U and G/U for ease of commenting.

So here's everyone's homework (If you want to play of course):
Post your 1Hr chart with NO indicators so we have apples to apples to start, of your potential directional bias the night before and what you feel is supporting that bias from a techical basis applying the M&W methods.

This is step one of breaking down any method - start from a macro level....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-15m.jpg Size: 179 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-1H.jpg Size: 208 KB
  • #1,156
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:32am Feb 21, 2013 9:32am
Quoting mmaker
Is it possible to post your Myfxbook or FF TradeExplorer to follow your analysis? I'm sure most will agree with me that it is difficult to follow your text ("red candle", "green candle", "shift bar", "current candle") without any time reference (EST or GMT) or location reference (price and chart). You put in your time and effort in your posts, let's hope we can follow your analysis if we can tell where on the chart you were referring to.
Sorry I don't use those tools - I looked at MyFxBook but they don't have an agreement with my B/D, I use Tradestation for order entry much more easier and flexible then MT4 for brackets and OCO/OSO bulk tickets.
  • #1,157
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:53am Feb 21, 2013 9:53am
Quoting Ishtana
Thanks FX-Trader. I did follow your suggestions and found that the 1H chart indeed gives me a different picture than a 15M chart. See my chart below.....
..... Also, are you using M2 range bar chart FX-Trader? I can't see how you can trade that chart.
M2 refers to Pivot Points M1,M2,Pivot,M3,M4
Here's what I see in your mark-up....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-1H.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #1,158
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:57pm Feb 21, 2013 5:57pm
This is what I like to see. Thanks for your contributions guys. This is my interpretation of the EU 1hr. I hope the chart is self explanatory and I also hope you could comment pls, directly or indirectly. I have been working on the method without the full resources of the course and DMR's etc. so am short of information.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_FF.png Size: 48 KB
  • #1,159
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:06pm Feb 21, 2013 7:06pm
e/u looks to me to be way over extended, accelerated by the fed minutes. it also looks to be putting in a multi session W. epectations are for a stop hunt low rise back into the range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-1hr.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #1,160
  • Feb 21, 2013 7:48pm Feb 21, 2013 7:48pm
Thanks FX, that was my first thought but decided the Level 1 was too pathetic. The levels can be tough to find. I guess we look for the stop hunts and trade them. This level is good and wide so well could be level 3. I guess this is why they say for beginners to trade level 1 to start with, then look for L2 and L3. See what happens to this area I guess.
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