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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #19,861
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:02am Feb 20, 2013 2:02am
Quoting lowweiting
thk for reply...actually i not looking for sell...just type wrong....

is mine answer correct ??

i saw the IB on H4, u mean go to LTF look for BUY setup???
when I see what happened to GU now, I would be very careful until I see a clear setup top buy EU.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,862
  • Edited 7:35am Feb 20, 2013 6:01am | Edited 7:35am
Just goes to show that while we may have a direction bias, we must learn to trade what price tells us. (This is always easier after the fact, of course as per the example i've posted).

Was waiting for the H4 IB breakout and entry setup to go long, but a short trade setup.

After the fact, lots of things to indicate a short trade on EU:
- H4 trend down, H4 pin (smallish)
- H1 bearish candle with little lower wick and cross of 10ema, divergence [EDIT: not an engulfing candle]
- M15 divergence, cross of ema's, retest of 800 ema
- Big drop in GU 30 min before EU started to drop.

Have to work at seeing these things real-time and acting without hesitation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD,M15_2013-02-20_15 Case Study.png Size: 160 KB
  • #19,863
  • Feb 20, 2013 7:27am Feb 20, 2013 7:27am
Emmanuel posted a chart of his scalp trade on the EJ earlier today. (See attached).
Found this similar trade on EU today (unfortunately i did not take it).

Both EJ and EU exhibited similar movements down and both pulled back to H4 50%.

I haven't back-tested, but something to watch for in future as a standard setup?

Axiom
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Pullback setup 20130220.png Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Pullback setup 20120220.png Size: 92 KB
  • #19,864
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:13pm Feb 20, 2013 2:13pm
Quoting Axiom
Just goes to show that while we may have a direction bias, we must learn to trade what price tells us. (This is always easier after the fact, of course as per the example i've posted).

Was waiting for the H4 IB breakout and entry setup to go long, but a short trade setup.

After the fact, lots of things to indicate a short trade on EU:
- H4 trend down, H4 pin (smallish)
- H1 bearish candle with little lower wick and cross of 10ema, divergence [EDIT: not an engulfing candle]
- M15 divergence, cross of ema's, retest of 800 ema
- Big drop in GU...
Good post Axiom.
As traders, we must always have a Plan A , a Plan B and a Plan C.
When Plan A fails, we are ready with Plan B...always waiting.

As we follow the market everyday, we must learn to see when our Plan A get invalidated by the market. and once we get a confirmation of a trade setup being invalidated, we activate Plan B.

Remember my picture of the Bear waiting upstream to catch the salmons when they become exhausted and become easy prey to be eaten. This is exactly what we do as traders, think smart when buying get exhasuted, then we follow the sellers. There are always sufficent signs to jump in with the buyers and sellers, as small retail traders, we have no influence in the market. We do not pick tops and bottoms. We wait for the move and find an entry.

That Day Inside Bar was too obvious to draw in buyers. Now that base has been broken with that fall from a high. This week range is exhausted. So I stay at the sideline and wait again.

USD remains the safe haven currency no matter what some analysts write in their reports. It is no that USD being strong, it is becuase all currencies are weak and it is a matter which one is weaker.

Trade Well!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Bear Big Meal 21-2-2013 5-52-57 AM.png Size: 273 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,865
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:28pm Feb 20, 2013 2:28pm
EU 20 Feb:
when GU made that plunge, and EU fails to make higher high .. Plan A fails.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 20 Feb NYO pullback 20-2-2013 11-38-40 PM.png Size: 54 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,866
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:48pm Feb 20, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting Axiom
Answer is a bit late.

My reasons would be:
1. Bounce from fib 61.8 level of prev H4 candle and 50% level of prev D range (my brokerTime GMT-7)
2. Two doji candles before
3. Bounce from BRN 125.00
4. Candle closed above 10/50/200 ema's
5. Candle is strong with virtually no bottom wick
6. Prev H4 closed strongly above 10/50 ema's

Thanks for your assistance.

Axiom
Hi Axiom,
Good attempt. You did good. Thanks.

Those 2 dojis are part of a H1 candle. Keep every M15 candles in sight of the H1 candle which they belong.
Zoom out more so as to see the Big Picture even more.

My 5 reasons in chart below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenShot_EURJPY_M15_2013.02.19 19_45.gif Size: 29 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,867
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:51pm Feb 20, 2013 2:51pm
emmanuel7788 if you do not mind, could you post the indicator with fibo extensions and ohlc values ​​of preview weekly, coz I have one ohlc with fib extension of preview day, and in this indicator, 50% fibo of last day and weekly is mised. thx.
  • #19,868
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:55pm Feb 20, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting shum
emmanuel7788 if you do not mind, could you post the indicator with fibo extensions and ohlc values ​​of preview weekly, coz I have one ohlc with fib extension of preview day, and in this indicator, 50% fibo of last day and weekly is mised. thx.

I am sure these were posted before.
Let me check later... now waiting for sunrise ... early bird special. BULLs are hungry and need to feed too.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,869
  • Feb 20, 2013 3:17pm Feb 20, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
I am sure these were posted before.
Let me check later... now waiting for sunrise ... early bird special. BULLs are hungry and need to feed too.
WOW...you are up really early man.I wish I could do that....
Good luck with feeding....
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #19,870
  • Feb 20, 2013 3:25pm Feb 20, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting mike1349
WOW...you are up really early man.I wish I could do that....
Good luck with feeding....
I sleep and feed in slots of 4-hours ...

here is one scalp feed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 20 Feb Pop Gun 21-2-2013 7-02-27 AM.png Size: 48 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,871
  • Feb 20, 2013 3:36pm Feb 20, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
I sleep and feed in slots of 4-hours ...

here is one scalp feed
I don't know why when I look at your charts I could see everything nice and clear but I can't see these stuff in my chart before you show it to me.
I need to practice more on watching charts I guess.
Good job and thank you!
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #19,872
  • Feb 20, 2013 3:43pm Feb 20, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting mike1349
I don't know why when I look at your charts I could see everything nice and clear but I can't see these stuff in my chart before you show it to me.
I need to practice more on watching charts I guess.
Good job and thank you!
Practice practice practice ... you will see when you know exactly what you are looking for.
Think of what a surgeon does, when he cuts open, he knows exactly what he is looking for. If he start searching after he cuts open, there isn't a lot of time before the poor chap will die.

Do Not Feed Bulls!
Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,873
  • Feb 20, 2013 8:52pm Feb 20, 2013 8:52pm
There is trickery in this chart posted by the member earlier.

Don't fall for such thing.


There is no such indicator.


He got suspended again by a senior member. LOL.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361391214
  • #19,874
  • Feb 20, 2013 9:25pm Feb 20, 2013 9:25pm
emmanuel

Blessed. This should be a candidate for best picture in the field of training.


Quoting emmanuel7788
Good post Axiom.
As traders, we must always have a Plan A , a Plan B and a Plan C.
When Plan A fails, we are ready with Plan B...always waiting.

As we follow the market everyday, we must learn to see when our Plan A get invalidated by the market. and once we get a confirmation of a trade setup being invalidated, we activate Plan B.

Remember my picture of the Bear waiting upstream to catch the salmons when they become exhausted and become easy prey to be eaten. This is exactly what we do as traders, think smart when buying get exhasuted, then...
Persian Gulf forever
  • #19,875
  • Feb 20, 2013 10:38pm Feb 20, 2013 10:38pm
Euro 21 Feb:

Let the BULL feed you, but be careful it is correction move only.
Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,876
  • Feb 20, 2013 10:54pm Feb 20, 2013 10:54pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Euro 21 Feb:

Let the BULL feed you, but be careful it is correction move only.
Hey my friend.

Thats a cow , not a bull.

  • #19,877
  • Feb 20, 2013 10:58pm Feb 20, 2013 10:58pm
Especially Divergence H1 , M15

Quoting emmanuel7788
Euro 21 Feb:

Let the BULL feed you, but be careful it is correction move only.
Attached Image
Persian Gulf forever
  • #19,878
  • Feb 20, 2013 10:58pm Feb 20, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting matlobien
Hey my friend.

Thats a cow , not a bull.


Oops! I just got several PMs....

I am a silly cow.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,879
  • Feb 20, 2013 11:01pm Feb 20, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting parsfx
Especially Divergence H1 , M15
You are spot on... matey!
After every extreme move, the slow indicators have trouble to keep up with fast price action.
So divergence is good to trade.

we never know if this would turn into a bullish reversal. Too early for this.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,880
  • Feb 20, 2013 11:08pm Feb 20, 2013 11:08pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Oops! I just got several PMs....

I am a silly cow.
No, you are a brilliant trader and teacher.

Keep up the good work.

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