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  • #16,681
  • Feb 17, 2013 2:17pm Feb 17, 2013 2:17pm
My formula for projecting weekly/daily ranges suggests the following for what it's worth.

Weekly = 1.3287 to 1.3531

Monday = 1.3290 to 1.3389

My bais is to be a seller so I'll aim for the high numbers to try and sell.
  • #16,682
  • Feb 17, 2013 2:23pm Feb 17, 2013 2:23pm
Hello,

I will reply you later ( I don't know what I should reply with)
Out and about replying from phone so later will try.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #16,683
  • Feb 17, 2013 5:23pm Feb 17, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
Thanks for your reply. I want to make it clear that Technicals are very important in being a complete forex trader and winner. The information that you and others post is invaluable however it might be for different reasons than know Support and Resistance.

If we had FREE MARKETS the technicals would have more validity however at times knowing where Support and Resistance is allows those with the Power to move markets to cause breakdowns or breakouts.

This happens almost every morning at the opening of Frankie. The Retail Traders usually get...
interesting perspective you have on the markets CM... I respect that but this technique is not something my mind can understand, therefore accept...

I have never known fundy's to give entries or exits on the fx markets... where should stops go? so how does one trade with your method? where and when do they enter? for how many pips? do they use stops? how big?

in addition fundies don't deliver a bias towards the market - most fundies in my experience appear after the fact and not before... but it could also be that i no longer read fundies so if i hear of any news its 'EURO boosts on Draghi etc etc'

for this reason Technicals are so much more reliable for me... if you look deep enough you will see even fundamental moves are respected by technicals on a chart
  • #16,684
  • Feb 17, 2013 7:59pm Feb 17, 2013 7:59pm
Hmm interesting questions and perspectives are being brought up here. I like it. Keep it going guys

As for Asia range. 3314-3362. Breakouts are below 3290 and above 3386. If EU doesnt make a new low in Asia ( below 3315 or 3305) we might see a consolidation to the upper side and 3450 in next few days. Levels to watch for breakout below 3290 are 3270-3250 where we have a strong confluence.

Ill post more thorough analysis early in the morning.
  • #16,685
  • Feb 18, 2013 2:21am Feb 18, 2013 2:21am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 143 KB


We have HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE on h4 timeframe which can be played out if EURUSD breaks TL at 3365. If 3315 breaks to the downside targets are 3305 3290 3375 which is ATR projection. Break of 3270 to the downside extends ATR so 3250 is still possible although strong demand zone on Monday is usually respected.

If 3365 is broken 3390 and 3426 are targets.

You can also read the analysis on my Forex Blog.
  • #16,686
  • Feb 18, 2013 9:18am Feb 18, 2013 9:18am
Quoting jaylovin
interesting perspective you have on the markets CM... I respect that but this technique is not something my mind can understand, therefore accept...

I have never known fundy's to give entries or exits on the fx markets... where should stops go? so how does one trade with your method? where and when do they enter? for how many pips? do they use stops? how big?

in addition fundies don't deliver a bias towards the market - most fundies in my experience appear after the fact and not before... but it could also be that i no longer read fundies...
Please excuse me for not being more clear on my definition of Fundamentals. The normal definition of Fundamentals is clear. You just gave me an idea on how to avoid confusion on this topic in the future. From here on I will refer to it to CM Money Flow.

So we have Fundamentals, Technicals and CM Money Flow.

I will now describe CM Money Flow and how you can use it with your Technical style.

As we move back and forth between Risk On and Risk Off or another way to describe it is Money into Equities with Risk On and Money into US Bonds with Risk Off.

The BAROMETER for this is the Yields on the 2 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year and 30 Year US Bonds.

As money flows into the 4 US Bonds described above the PRICE goes up and the Yield goes down.

Since the US Dollar is still the RESERVE CURRENCY of the world then when Risk is off all or most of the other asset classes are sold and the currencies are converted to US Dollars in order to buy the US Bonds.

By buying the US Bonds they get safety and yield.

When we have Risk On then the process reverses.

This is a simple description and I would be more than happy to answer questions on this topic. I can see the direction of the CM Money Flow all day especially between 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM while the North American Markets are open.

Combining this with Technicals and proper Risk Management along with a Good Trade Plan my forex trading has an EDGE over others who just use Technicals or a combination of Technicals and Fundamentals.

The CM Money Flow changes the VALUES in ALL the Asset Classes that I follow.

I follow on my FXCM UK Platform the following Asset Classes.

EUR/USD EUR/JPY USD/JPY British Pound Swiss Franc EUR/CHF USD/CAD USD/AUD

Then I follow Oil, Gold, Dow 30 and SP 500

I use CORRELATION between some asset classes and the CM Money Flow sets the pattern and as the MONEY FLOWS into the above asset classes ALL THE CHARTS CHANGE WITH THE MONEY FLOW so you have a leading indicator VS the Technicals which are an XRAY of things at that EXACT MOMENT.

Of course Support and Resistance on different Time Frames are used as well.

All comments and feedback is welcome.

Have a great Trading day.
  • #16,687
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:30am Feb 18, 2013 10:30am
Its better to keep it simple And not be in every market.

As for Correlation, There is no Correlation these days, not much.

I dont wanna argue or go further with this. I conclude your method is very Difficult.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #16,688
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:54am Feb 18, 2013 10:54am
Quoting Raza
Its better to keep it simple And not be in every market.

As for Correlation, There is no Correlation these days, not much.

I dont wanna argue or go further with this. I conclude your method is very Difficult.
Hi Raza
Nice to see you , Hope all is ok
Not sure if i getting older or life stress increasing but things not an easy as i used to b
  • #16,689
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:55am Feb 18, 2013 10:55am
Quoting T@rantula
Attachment

We have HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE on h4 timeframe which can be played out if EURUSD breaks TL at 3365. If 3315 breaks to the downside targets are 3305 3290 3375 which is ATR projection. Break of 3270 to the downside extends ATR so 3250 is still possible although strong demand zone on Monday is usually respected.

If 3365 is broken 3390 and 3426 are targets.

You can also read the analysis on my Forex Blog.
Nothing more i can add
  • #16,690
  • Feb 18, 2013 11:03am Feb 18, 2013 11:03am
Quoting T@rantula
Attachment

We have HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE on h4 timeframe which can be played out if EURUSD breaks TL at 3365. If 3315 breaks to the downside targets are 3305 3290 3375 which is ATR projection. Break of 3270 to the downside extends ATR so 3250 is still possible although strong demand zone on Monday is usually respected.

If 3365 is broken 3390 and 3426 are targets.

You can also read the analysis on my Forex Blog.
Hi T,
Same exact levels here.
Up side 1.3403 -07 -12, may extend the trap to 1.3459 -62 -1.3511.

Gann at 1.3257 and 1.3427.

S$D upside is @ 1.3626.

Hello Egkid....
Ya,We Getting old Buddy...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #16,691
  • Feb 18, 2013 1:13pm Feb 18, 2013 1:13pm
It seems it might go again up before next leg down. 3410 3426 3460 maximum.
  • #16,692
  • Feb 18, 2013 5:00pm Feb 18, 2013 5:00pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
Please excuse me for not being more clear on my definition of Fundamentals. The normal definition of Fundamentals is clear. You just gave me an idea on how to avoid confusion on this topic in the future. From here on I will refer to it to CM Money Flow.

So we have Fundamentals, Technicals and CM Money Flow.

I will now describe CM Money Flow and how you can use it with your Technical style.

As we move back and forth between Risk On and Risk Off or another way to describe it is Money into Equities with Risk On and Money into US Bonds with Risk...


wow... there is an easier way to trade i can assure you! as mentioned before this is still difficult for me to understand.. i would however like to ask you a question:

from current market and your analysis - what is your next move? ideally on the EURUSD pair but any market will do for now to get a more clear understanding..

are you thinking long, short, no trade, where to put stops and targets - does your analysis tell you any from now or are you waiting for development?

with kind respect, you have not answered those same questions from my previous post

technically EURUSD should go up tomorrow - then drop... over 3450 i will rethink the charts. thanks for your reponse
  • #16,693
  • Feb 18, 2013 9:13pm Feb 18, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting jaylovin


wow... there is an easier way to trade i can assure you! as mentioned before this is still difficult for me to understand.. i would however like to ask you a question:

from current market and your analysis - what is your next move? ideally on the EURUSD pair but any market will do for now to get a more clear understanding..

are you thinking long, short, no trade, where to put stops and targets - does your analysis tell you any from now or are you waiting for development?

with kind...
With Respect to you and your question or questions.

My method of Forex trading is quite simple once you understand it. My results each month are over 5% ROI.

I do not need to guess at anything. I have determined short term that EUR/USD will go down. That is because of my expectations that the Equity markets (DOW) will sell off.
I only trade short EUR/USD therefore.

I am all in cash now waiting for my Trade Plan to be put into play. I may short EUR/USD at 1.3400 however I do not need to decide that.

I make NO ASSUMPTIONS as I just wait for an opportunity to put on a Trade Plan.

If I see the Retail Traders moving EUR/USD up and I start to see DOW Futures down then I watch Yields on the 2 Year and 10 Year US Bonds.

I really hope this post explains things better.

The MONEYFLOW moves the charts and of course I note Support and Resistance in my Forex trading.

10 years of Forex trading and experience have helped me develop my winning strategy.

Whatever works for you is what you should stick with.

Please feel free to keep asking me any question that you or others may have.

I am not trying to convince anyone about anything.

I hope that is clear.

Thanks for you post to me.
  • #16,694
  • Feb 19, 2013 12:05am Feb 19, 2013 12:05am
Thanks for your detail reply CM. Although, most of the traders here trade lower timeframe(M15 less) base on technical. The correlation may not be so clear on M15 or lower timeframe.
it's always good to learn new perspectives. your trading style make me think of Ray Dalio and Bridgewater. I will do my own study on this subject, and get back to you with so difficult questions..

Quoting CurrencyMan
Good Day

Thanks for the follow up question. The issue with the Yen now is a change of authority and a determination to lower the value of the Yen which helps the exporters. The others being the ECB and the FED do not approve of Japan lowering the value of the Yen for obvious reasons even though the ECB by printing money and the FED by printing money are doing the same thing that they do not want Japan to do. The race to the bottom has started in the Currency War now going on.

We therefore have a new factor now and that is the Yen going down...
seeing through
  • #16,695
  • Feb 19, 2013 3:02am Feb 19, 2013 3:02am
Still trapped in a range eurusd is waiting for ZEW survey data release. Levels are still in play. 3365 acts as interim resistance 3332 as a support. There is a hidden bear waiting at H4 timeframe, which is suggesting continuation of downward movement, but still needs to come into play.
  • #16,696
  • Feb 19, 2013 4:11am Feb 19, 2013 4:11am
Quoting T@rantula
Still trapped in a range eurusd is waiting for ZEW survey data release. Levels are still in play. 3365 acts as interim resistance 3332 as a support. There is a hidden bear waiting at H4 timeframe, which is suggesting continuation of downward movement, but still needs to come into play.
Hi T. and the Gang,

I am right now on Smartphone, so no charts.

In the area between roughly 3290 and 3270 comes important channel support in. The channel is the lower line of the channel build from the move from the low of last summer.

Now we are moving in a sideways range towards this channel line.

For me it looks like that this line will be broken and retested from the lower side.

If broken, bulls can say goodbye
  • #16,697
  • Edited 5:17am Feb 19, 2013 4:37am | Edited 5:17am
Quoting pipphunter
Thanks for your detail reply CM. Although, most of the traders here trade lower timeframe(M15 less) base on technical. The correlation may not be so clear on M15 or lower timeframe.
it's always good to learn new perspectives. your trading style make me think of Ray Dalio and Bridgewater. I will do my own study on this subject, and get back to you with so difficult questions..
Good Morning

Let me be more specific with regard to Correlation.

On my FXCM UK trading platform the first three currencies that I follow are EUR/USD EUR/JPY USD/JPY

As we all know the US Dollar Index is made up of EUR/USD which is 57.6 % of the totals. We also have USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD and USD/CAD.

I mainly FOCUS on the Correlation between EUR/JPY and USD/JPY

Look at recent charts (3 Months) on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. As EUR/JPY moves UP or DOWN it moves EUR/USD with it. I can give you an explanation why however for now I just point it out.

I have traded accounts with $100,000 US Dollars (REAL FUNDS) back in 2007 and that is where I first saw the Correlation as in that account I traded EUR/USD Long EUR/JPY Long and USD/JPY.

I did not realize at that time that trading EUR/USD Long and EUR/JPY Long was almost like trading the same currency.

I later on in my trading career started to see the Correlation and how USD/JPY affected EUR/JPY and that is why they are the first three currencies on my Forex trading platform.

As for my trading style I also use a 15 Minute TF and a 5 Minute TF as well.

I do about 25 FX trades a day usually going short EUR/USD and rarely holding a position overnight.

I have developed a unique scaling in trading strategy which puts my maximum risk on any one Trade Plan at 5%.

If I decide to go short EUR/USD and I decide to put on 5 positions of EUR/USD Short then I would short my first position. (I only trade standard lots) and if it moved 25 PIPS against me then I would put on a second position and if I am really confident then I put on a third position of 100 K.

This strategy is meant for accounts with a minimum of $50,000 US Dollars.

My MAXIMUM STOP LOSS is 50 PIPS so if I traded 3 positions of 100 K then my MAXIMUM LOSS is $500 times 3 positions or $1500 US Dollars which is 3% on a $50,000 US Dollars account.

I get good entry and I exit by moving my STOP down once EUR/USD reverses as it would probably do just over 1.3400 in this example.

I have a three page printed out strategy and if you PM me I will email it to you.

When I first started trading Real Funds during March 2006 I remember going Long One Million EUR/USD and putting on a trade with US Funds of $10,000 which controlled 10 contracts of 100K or $1,000,000 US Dollars EUR/USD.

One day Greenspan spoke near NOON that day and I had a draw down of over 200 PIPS. I had build up profits of $25,000 US Dollars on a starting account of $25,000 US so I was risking the profits. I held my position for about 21 days and finally it turned around and I got out with a small profit.

It was some learning experience.

It was after that I started scaling in my trades so TODAY I would put on 10 positions of 100K so that I could exit the one on Top with a profit by lowering my STOP.

I hope you find this information useful and I would be glad to answer any questions about my strategy.
  • #16,698
  • Feb 19, 2013 5:28am Feb 19, 2013 5:28am
The ZEW was great and I see there was a spike up in EUR/USD on the news. Now I see it is down from the initial reaction. Any technical views on this ?

I am off for breakfast. I will check in later for any thoughts on this.
  • #16,699
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:31am Feb 19, 2013 6:31am
Quoting CurrencyMan
The ZEW was great and I see there was a spike up in EUR/USD on the news. Now I see it is down from the initial reaction. Any technical views on this ?

I am off for breakfast. I will check in later for any thoughts on this.
this... basically nothing is happening and we wait for some kind of real move to take place...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,700
  • Feb 19, 2013 7:30am Feb 19, 2013 7:30am
Quoting CurrencyMan
The ZEW was great and I see there was a spike up in EUR/USD on the news. Now I see it is down from the initial reaction. Any technical views on this ?

I am off for breakfast. I will check in later for any thoughts on this.
No technical reason, the only thing i can see i hidden bearish on H4, the only technical thing. If whole techs are respected we should have gone to 3425-35 then down to 3280.

Now we need to wait for this range to break.
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