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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #38,921
  • Feb 19, 2013 2:25am Feb 19, 2013 2:25am
Quoting phil13
Hi frz and welcome


do what you feel comfortable with, if you think you are trading against trend/direction then exercise caution in doing so, trend/direction changes quickly so be aware of surrounding circumstances in the market and always know your defence strategy for your current trade, survival is the key, also remember sometimes no trade is the best trade, so do not get carried away and chase or you will end up in trouble within the market and within yourself.


If in doubt then remind yourself of what happens to most 'pigs'


Regards


Phil....


thanks Phil


regards
steady as she goes
  • #38,922
  • Edited 2:44am Feb 19, 2013 2:30am | Edited 2:44am
Quoting frz
hi all.. i would ask (i know this is a) silly question.. but i'm really in doubt.
in retracement, what should we do? should i take it or leave it flow?
if i take it, then my position against trend and it would add my risk as well.


regards
there is no shame , in wanting to learn.
is more silly if one not learn and practise with wrong mindset.

you cited retracement.
That means you had been riding a trend.
So you have profits.
One will never go broke taking profits.
remember that no one can consistently sell the high and buy the low. But we can try.
The risk from the decisions, as its taken is 50:50%

You seem not understand that MM, allows you size skew risk on risk off.
so when you riding the trade. You can always book part of profits and manage it again, rebuilding again slowly if trend persist.
Rhis way you stretch the range, volitility becomes range.
How does one know before it happens, if its retracement or reversal?
NO one can see the future.
Only thing one can do is to stay on trend, if ground factors and chart prices indicate continuity.

One must have the strategy to compliment both possibilities.
Otherwise one is only rigid and bias on the trade.

Is ok be bias. When trends persist, one tends get that bias into trades.
One should have skews for when bias, and when not. Is should be part of the MO.

Learn be generous, take what market gives.
Do not force.

Is important you learn versatility in your MO abilities.
Learn to dance the rhythm.

regards

Just to help you see clearer.

example.
How much can you make in the market in range was 3 pips.
3 pips?
refer chart enclosed.
then think again.

Oh 3 pips is just hypothetecal. you may like make it more interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: range.jpg Size: 137 KB
  • #38,923
  • Edited 3:01am Feb 19, 2013 2:51am | Edited 3:01am
Quoting fti
there is no shame , in wanting to learn.
is more silly if one not learn and practise with wrong mindset.

you cited retracement.
That means you had been riding a trend.
So you have profits.
One will never go broke taking profits.
remember that no one can consistently sell the high and buy the low. But we can try.
The risk from the decisions, as its taken is 50:50%

You seem not understand that MM, allows you size skew risk on risk off.
so when you riding the trade. You can always book part of profits and manage it again, rebuilding...

thanks fti.

yes, i think versatility in my MO abilities and strategy to compliment both possibilities is a key, i will learn it.
flexibility size on MM as well, book part of profits and manage it again, rebuilding again slowly if trend persist.

regards.
steady as she goes
  • #38,924
  • Edited 3:01am Feb 19, 2013 2:51am | Edited 3:01am
this slightly more interesting.
I can sit show you about a couple million variations.
"as above so below".
remember a run can be a trend, so can a congestion a trend.

regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: morerange.jpg Size: 232 KB
  • #38,925
  • Feb 19, 2013 2:59am Feb 19, 2013 2:59am
Quoting fti
this slightly more interesting.
I can sit show you about a couple million variations.
"as above so below".

regards
3 pips.. wouldn't enough to pay my broker.
i must always remember it.


regards
steady as she goes
  • #38,926
  • Edited 3:16am Feb 19, 2013 3:04am | Edited 3:16am
Quoting frz
3 pips.. wouldn't enough to pay my broker.
i must always remember it.


regards

i think brokers make more consistent profits than some traders mostly.
3 pips is for you think only.
whats the average true range of the pair you trades?
of course different time frames , is it the same?
i tell you more and every market makers will be sending me assasins.
please think instead.

regards
  • #38,927
  • Feb 19, 2013 3:43am Feb 19, 2013 3:43am
Quoting fti
i think brokers make more consistent profits than some traders mostly.
3 pips is for you think only.
whats the average true range of the pair you trades?
of course different time frames , is it the same?
i tell you more and every market makers will be sending me assasins.
please think instead.

regards

i don't know how to measure average true range, is it different from ATR indicator?
steady as she goes
  • #38,928
  • Edited 4:30am Feb 19, 2013 3:47am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting frz
i don't know how to measure average true range, is it different from ATR indicator?
What is range?

What is True range?
point a to point B traveled 100 times.
What is thr true range travelled?

what is the average of a given time sample?

there cannot be an absolute figure, only visual guesstimate.
the mind can measure.

what is the true golden mean?
1.618? then you rigid and snobbish.
1.61803398875? then you still rigid.
1.61803398875............................................., God how many decimals please? then you a little humble.
Sorry you not enough fingers and toes count.
That is reason creation is infinite. way way beyong 1 track minds.

How many colours are there in the world?
7?
what colour is air?

How many octaves in sound?
you like listen mp3s?

what colour is light?
what colour is electricity?

What is energy?
how much energy exist in shit?

what is your heart pulse rate?
I know 1 sifu heart beat is 400, give take 50, measured manually chinese way.
every machine says is err read. Haven't found machine can measure it yet.
He is healthier, like an ox, lives like everyone.
Can up root trees?
not so big ones.

OK simple thinking.
what is more powerful.
1 ox or v8 engine?

Oh when no petrol available.

what is more powerful?
a stone or an atom.
Which you prefer, i thrww a split big stone at you , or a small split atom?

The last shall be first, and the first shall be last.
just talking about stuff we rigid minds still not know.
But it exist.
The mind can measure things better than any instrument can.
It just not give you readings. But it can measure.

You know?
I can look at a tall tree. Can in a few seconds tell you about how tall it is.
Oh, by using my finger. How powerful is the finger?

regards
  • #38,929
  • Edited 4:21am Feb 19, 2013 4:01am | Edited 4:21am
Quoting fti
What is range?

What is True range?
point a to point B traveled 100 times.
What is thr true range travelled?

what is the average of a given time sample?

there cannot be an absolute figure, only visual guesstimate.
the mind can measure.

what is the true golden mean?
1.618? then you rigid and snobbish.
1.61803398875? then you still rigid.
1.61803398875............................................., God how many decimals please, the you a little humble.
Sorry you not enough fingers and toes count.
That is reason creation is infinite....

I've found little explanation, but i don't know what should i do with it

"Measuring the distance between two points, not the direction.
If the current period's high is above the prior period's high and the low is below the prior period's low, then the current period's high-low range will be used as the True Range. "

"This is an outside day that would use Method 1 to calculate the TR. This is pretty straight forward.
Methods 2 and 3 are used when there is a gap or an inside day. "

"A gap occurs when the previous close is greater than the current high (signaling a potential gap down or limit move) or the previous close is lower than the current low (signaling a potential gap up or limit move).
The image below shows examples of when methods 2 and 3 are appropriate."


Attached Image
steady as she goes
  • #38,930
  • Edited 4:55am Feb 19, 2013 4:34am | Edited 4:55am
Quoting frz
I've found little explanation, but i don't know what should i do with it

"Measuring the distance between two points, not the direction.
If the current period's high is above the prior period's high and the low is below the prior period's low, then the current period's high-low range will be used as the True Range. "

"This is an outside day that would use Method 1 to calculate the TR. This is pretty straight forward.
Methods 2 and 3 are used when there is a gap or an inside day. "

"A gap occurs when the previous close...
e=mc2

you talking conventional defined TA hypothesis with assumptions.
I talking enertia.
You talking about how much energy consumed from point a to point b.
I talking about how much energy iss consumed point a to b if moved say 100 times within the points.
energy cannot be destroyed. so what becomes of it?

For every socket is a plug.
for every buyer is a seller.

try understand, rest, coil , spring effects from perspective of energy.
think about rifle recoils energy, compression, expansion and how recognise its limitations.



regards
  • #38,931
  • Feb 19, 2013 4:56am Feb 19, 2013 4:56am
Quote
what is more powerful?
a stone or an atom.
depends on usage?

Quote
e=mc2
yes of course, relativity

Quote
I talking about how much energy iss consumed point a to b if moved 100 times within the points.
energy cannot be destroyed. so what becomes of it?
"..when energy dissapears in one form it appears simultaneously in other forms."


it's like herd of dots, but i can't connect it.
i must be so dumb.

regards


Quote
think about rifle recoils energy, compression, expansion and how recognise its limitations.
emm, i think limitations is the key.
am i right?
steady as she goes
  • #38,932
  • Feb 19, 2013 5:01am Feb 19, 2013 5:01am
Quoting frz
depends on usage?




yes of course, relativity





"..when energy dissapears in one form it appears simultaneously in other forms."



it's like herd of dots, but i can't connect it.
i must be so dumb.



regards
i am trying tell you about ability recognise the effects. It cannot be measure with any accuracy.
Only time windowed for effects, otherwise disipates.

You trying measure. Thats why you cannot understand.
Mindset.

regards
  • #38,933
  • Feb 19, 2013 5:13am Feb 19, 2013 5:13am
Quoting fti
i am trying tell you about ability recognise the effects. It cannot be measure with any accuracy.
Only time windowed for effects, otherwise disipates.

You trying measure. Thats why you cannot understand.
Mindset.

regards

oh, i got it..
ya, the effect cannot be measure with any accuracy.
but, we can anticipate it with recognise its limitations. am i right?
thank you sir for the explanation.


regards
steady as she goes
  • #38,934
  • Edited 6:10am Feb 19, 2013 5:29am | Edited 6:10am
ok here's an analogy.
is sane cray way to think.
Just try get point across.

some places like eat dogs.
if such place had 1 billion humans. ate a dog aday
how many dog would be consumed.

depends on supply factor, right. how fast the dogs can mate reproduce for you eat.
Generally would expect if reproduction stressed, then extinction is trend.
Alarmed humans make law, forbid eat.
If that happens what happens?
then culling need be imposed?
what happens if dogs population over runs?
they eat humans?

so is all a manner of managing. Depending on terrain, one institute action :reaction.
You want make rigid. Then total imbalance.

thats what markets is, ever changing terrains, ever changing managing.
1 rule fits all?
the basics is guild only recognise need for change?
sometimes 1 group monopolise and things become very imbalance.
Analyst task is to recognise the change?
Traders task is to capitalise the change? So need strategies, not a stone brain.

maybe i going mad already. weird example.

regards

for lack of a better example.
we can relate to over shielding and permering of women.
as i type comes another one on screen , showing me meat. asking me click here.
for what?

and all those who cannot trade trying lure my money. They so smart.
why they justt not use their advertising resources just make the money in the markets.

You understand balance and managing now?
Difference, normal range terrain, abnormal imbalance.
Trend. Human nature and rules, tendency extreme imbalance.
Watch time window for normalisation process.

Task as trader is capitalise the trend.
and best trend is naturally sideways. That trend is persistent if markets well managed.
  • #38,935
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:14am Feb 19, 2013 6:14am
Quoting fti

so is all a manner of managing. Depending on terrain, one institute action :reaction.
You want make rigid. Then total imbalance.

thats what markets is, ever changing terrains, ever changing managing.
1 rule fits all?

Traders task is to capitalise the change. So need strategies, not a stone brain.

affirmative, sir!


regards
steady as she goes
  • #38,936
  • Edited 8:05am Feb 19, 2013 6:48am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting mr.kho
yea fantastic kitaro !

salaam

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzIgRbD_kYY
nice, thanks.

regards

Inserted Video


seems usd bottoms against chf.
yen is a given.?
the questions where the weakness may rest, aud, euro or cable?
I no scouts in battlefield as still trying test minds sanity.
but i see is quiet in battlefield, can hear a pin drop.
scary calm, is there a storm brewing?

Where is the silence going break?
  • #38,937
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:09am Feb 19, 2013 8:09am
so, some peaceful teary music before storm breaks?

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #38,938
  • Edited 8:59am Feb 19, 2013 8:22am | Edited 8:59am
nope, currency bids everywhere.
fire in the foxhole.

atch that euro cable

becareful, euro may vacuum thru top.
  • #38,939
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:44am Feb 19, 2013 8:44am
Quoting fti
so, some peaceful teary music before storm breaks?
Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video




regards
steady as she goes
  • #38,940
  • Feb 19, 2013 9:27am Feb 19, 2013 9:27am


what has become of my face book?
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