Sam Seiden Supply & Demand no more value than technical analysis? | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Sam Seiden's Supply/Demand zones 106 replies

5 years experience of {sam seiden} on supply & demand trading 21 replies

ECN && STP && Scalping && Hedging - Broker Review - Oct 2009 24 replies

Trading Supply & Demand (ob & os) 17 replies

Trading Breakouts in FX market, by Sam Shenker 5 replies

Attachments: Sam Seiden Supply & Demand no more value than technical analysis?
Exit Attachments

Sam Seiden Supply & Demand no more value than technical analysis?

  • #81
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:10am Feb 17, 2013 11:10am
Quoting C-12
Sam Seiden's method with all his rules and odds enhancers is simply one way to trade but not the only way.

Supply and demand functions across all time frames and fresh levels show up all the time so that's why some levels appear not to work and some do. You've got to be very dynamic in the way you view the market and not apply such a static view.
yeah I know about that. I don't mind levels failing and what not. But I would only take a level becase there were orders there. that is the whole point of it for me. And seems like its false.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #82
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:18am Feb 17, 2013 11:18am
I absolutely agree with the premisse of this thread. Supply and Demand, blah blah blah blah........ You never know which level will hold and which will break! For me if the trigger is not present I will not execute the trade, PERIOD. I found from EXPERIENCE that most of the education "GURUS" are in fact scam artists. You want to know how I did that? Simple, I got a job in the Futures and Forex broker and spend time managing their margins desk. Any question?
I assure you, profitable traders DO NOT NEED TO TEACH ANYONE! OK
  • #83
  • Edited 11:42am Feb 17, 2013 11:29am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting SugarPink
yeah I know about that. I don't mind levels failing and what not. But I would only take a level becase there were orders there. that is the whole point of it for me. And seems like its false.
Why is it false? If you're wondering why a weekly supply level doesn't always turn price to the pip then you'll be disappointed.

Stick up a chart on M1 (1 minute) and mark off your levels and watch price react. You'll see the order flow unfold right infront of your eyes in real time.

Here's an M1 chart of Friday's EURUSD price action. Can you see the supply and demand in action?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 49 KB
  • #84
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:46am Feb 17, 2013 11:46am
It was only a few years ago that Sam Seiden was promoting an entry level called the Point of Pain. This was basically trading the pull back to a channel (or flag) that contained many bars. Now his rules state the opposite, that you should not trade a level with many bars.

I like Seiden's stuff but I would not trade the levels on their own.

Consider a much more regarded trader; Bill Williams. He wrote about a technique that looks at highs and lows and called these Pivot Rings* (*rings, or similar). The strentgh of the pivot was calculated by counting the bars either side of the candle (with no regard to the strength or momentum of these bars), that does not breach its high for a pivot high, or its low for a pivot low. The more candles there were then the stronger the level.

These pivot rings are in direct contrast to Sam Seidens levels. Seiden likes to see a strong move away from the level which technically means fewer bars for a level in comparison to Williams pivot rings. But Seiden advocates distance away which could be argued as similar to Williams. However, Williams concentraded upn the immediate candles.

Trading and its educators are full of contradictions which would make an interesting thread in itself.
  • #85
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:47am Feb 17, 2013 11:47am
Quoting C-12
Why is it false? If you're wondering why a weekly supply level doesn't always turn price to the pip then you'll be disappointed.

Stick up a chart on M1 (1 minute) and mark off your levels and watch price react. You'll see the order flow unfold right infront of your eyes in real time.
I guess I can't make it more clear than this, I already showed why i think its false.
ok you belive that those levels have institutional and bank orders waiting for to be filled. its also okay.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #86
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:50am Feb 17, 2013 11:50am
Quoting SugarPink
I guess I can't make it more clear than this, I already showed why i think its false.
ok you belive that those levels have institutional and bank orders waiting for to be filled. its also okay.
Well I have no idea who is behind it but these levels clearly do work so it's up to you if you want to pay attention to them or not.
  • #87
  • Feb 17, 2013 12:14pm Feb 17, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting C-12
Well I have no idea who is behind it but these levels clearly do work so it's up to you if you want to pay attention to them or not.
yep. its another form of Technical Analysis.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #88
  • Feb 17, 2013 12:46pm Feb 17, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting C-12
Well I have no idea who is behind it but these levels clearly do work so it's up to you if you want to pay attention to them or not.
I've come to the conclusion that this is a waste of time. His kind of logic is the same kind of logic that fuels conspiracy theorists and would invalidate any and all types of TA. He's better putting his money into a CD because he will never get anywhere trading. We've come full circle in this thread and we even have the anti-teacher types who have a similar problem, as if any advocated methodology of trading is automatically wrong. Paranoid logic that keeps them looking for a super secret holy grail instead of making money.
  • #89
  • Feb 17, 2013 12:55pm Feb 17, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting C-12
Why is it false? If you're wondering why a weekly supply level doesn't always turn price to the pip then you'll be disappointed.

Stick up a chart on M1 (1 minute) and mark off your levels and watch price react. You'll see the order flow unfold right infront of your eyes in real time.

Here's an M1 chart of Friday's EURUSD price action. Can you see the supply and demand in action?
Doesnt get any better than c12s example, and other lvls which werent marked also. Also like he said on earlier post it takes time and practice to become good at noticing the lvls. Wether its based on unfilled orders or not, the levels can be used very accurately to predict price movements once they arrive to those lvls. Not all levels will work obviously and money management is very important. If lvls can be drawn correctly and only 50% of the time they work, as long as you have a 2to1 ration you will make money.
  • #90
  • Feb 17, 2013 12:59pm Feb 17, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting C-12
Why is it false? If you're wondering why a weekly supply level doesn't always turn price to the pip then you'll be disappointed.

Stick up a chart on M1 (1 minute) and mark off your levels and watch price react. You'll see the order flow unfold right infront of your eyes in real time.

Here's an M1 chart of Friday's EURUSD price action. Can you see the supply and demand in action?
nice examples
  • #91
  • Feb 17, 2013 1:05pm Feb 17, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting Kanzler
I've come to the conclusion that this is a waste of time. His kind of logic is the same kind of logic that fuels conspiracy theorists and would invalidate any and all types of TA. He's better putting his money into a CD because he will never get anywhere trading. We've come full circle in this thread and we even have the anti-teacher types who have a similar problem, as if any advocated methodology of trading is automatically wrong. Paranoid logic that keeps them looking for a super secret holy grail instead of making money.
Paranoid logic ?
Conspiracy theorists ?
I think its more conspiracy theorist and paranoid to say that dealing desks pushing prices to those levels, and banks are putting there orders etc.etc.
Invalidade all type of TA ?

I didnt invalidade TA , I even acknowledged TA, what I did was to put sam seiden method on that bag.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #92
  • Feb 17, 2013 1:13pm Feb 17, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting SugarPink
Paranoid logic ?
Conspiracy theorists ?
I think its more conspiracy theorist and paranoid to say that dealing desks pushing prices to those levels, and banks are putting there orders etc.etc.
Invalidade all type of TA ?

I didnt invalidade TA , I even acknowledged TA, what I did was to put sam seiden method on that bag.
if your goal is to make money, it doesnt matter why it works. you said you wanted to place trades there because big money places trades there. but why not place trades there because it works? you seem to be saying sam's reason is wrong, but then you go on to say that you need sams reason to place trades there. forget the reason, it works.

1) Forget everything about stop hunting, or other people, its only you and the market, you react to the markets signals.
2) Therefore, the market is like a breathing entity, and it forms patterns. take advantage of them

You sound like a scientist, you want a reason for why you place trades there, and because you realize sam's reason is wrong, you dont want to place trades there. I am at a university too and i found it strange that there was so much crap out there that you had to wade through. I thought it would be easy, you're presented with material that works, you practice, you get good enough to go live. but its not like a university, its more like self study because you have to find material that works. And since theres so much crap out there, it builds up skepticism in people when they encounter things that work, it literally makes them want to give up, because they're convinced that it should be easy (and it should, with the appropriate amount of hard work to learn something that works).

Well, im telling you 2 things:
supply demand zones works
harmonis works (and i think complements supply/demand zones very very nicely, and might be one of the explanations that you're after).

go out and study them and practice live, at least find something , or dont trade at all....

First you will not believe it (because of skepticism of all the crap out there, first barrier causes people to give up)

Then once you get enough experience you will be like 'ah look at that, the market seems to be reacting sometimes to this'

Then, onceyou get more experience, you'll be like 'oh im learning a language that describes the action of the market', you will see order flow unfolding , and once you have learned the language of the markets, it will no longer seem like voodoo, you will no longer need a reason for why it works, just as you dont need to understand how you learned the english language in order to use it. It will no longer seem like gambling, because you have started to learn the language, and its patterns and its exceptions .... and the exceptions arent really exceptions, its just a smaller probability outcome (since you trade the high probability )...
  • #93
  • Feb 17, 2013 1:25pm Feb 17, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting Starry
...
I didnt see the harmonic stuff yet. But Thanks I will look at it
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #94
  • Edited 1:48pm Feb 17, 2013 1:38pm | Edited 1:48pm
Quoting SugarPink
I didnt see the harmonic stuff yet. But Thanks I will look at it
with harmonics, you start with patterns like abcd, gartley, etc..... but then you eventually realize that these patterns are like english words. You will find instances where abcds can be traded , but are not traded (so im basically warning you that you will encounter similar thing you encountered with supply/demand zones, but i think it is much better. in mr pips charts, you will encounter trades that he are not according to rules that he mentioned, but they do make sense once you put the puzzle together). Why? Well, it has to do with the grammar which binds the words together, as follows:

Impulse legs
Extensions and retracements of impulse legs.
strength of confluence

Impulse legs are formed via the interaction of price with previous supply/demand zones, and previous harmonic structures of various sizes. In a chart, you can see price moves up and down and pauses at various levels, when it pauses at a significant supply/demand zone (significant being that it has recently in the past interacted with the structure that formed that zone) and then goes on through, i would consider that the impulse leg formed from the bottom to where it paused is a valid impulse leg to use as an extension.

dont worry about that definition of impulse legs now, but learning to master harmonics involves, i think, learning to see what impulse legs you should use, and how the impulses interact with each other to form areas of confluence and structure.... and what structure is in play at the moment....

Also, one problem you might encounter that i did at first is thinking that a large abcd will complete, and it never does, so you miss out on all the trades that you could have made while waiting for the larger pattern to complete! harmonics doesnt say the pattern will complete, basically all it says is that price tends to react around fib extensions and retracements of impulses, but it doesnt say if it will react strongly, and certainly not that a pattern will be completed. thats why you use confluence, the converging of fib extensions and retracements of multiple impulses.


some examples of impulse legs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: impulse_legs.png Size: 155 KB


take a look at the harmonic thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=402253

and here is a pdf with some of the charts posted by mr pip (he also uses supply/demand zones btw)..., you will need to understand basics before you understand them....


good luck ! oh yeah, and you should use ninjatrader for harmonics, its almost like a necessity, and its free .... attached are instructions



Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf mr pip charts.pdf   2.4 MB | 869 downloads


Attached File(s)
File Type: docx ninja_instructions.docx   14 KB | 526 downloads
  • #95
  • Feb 18, 2013 1:36am Feb 18, 2013 1:36am
Quoting Kanzler
I've come to the conclusion that this is a waste of time. His kind of logic is the same kind of logic that fuels conspiracy theorists and would invalidate any and all types of TA. He's better putting his money into a CD because he will never get anywhere trading. We've come full circle in this thread and we even have the anti-teacher types who have a similar problem, as if any advocated methodology of trading is automatically wrong. Paranoid logic that keeps them looking for a super secret holy grail instead of making money.
Sceptism is healthy in the search of knowledge. Investigate everything and discard the crap and put right the contradictions as you move along. The most effective knowledge is the experience you gain from your own study and trading experience and record keeping of such. That record is worth much more than most of the stuff touted out there and will often lead you to knowledge that will help you.

I came to a point in my trading where I stripped all the indicators off my charts and began soley to look at turning points at pivot highs and lows. It was around this time that I bumped into Seidens stuff which then led me to Trading and Exchanges and everything started to fall into place.

It is no coincidence that supply and demand works. Forex trades huge volumes and traders using size need to fill their orders at certain prices. The foot print of huge orders are momentum candles, and the pull backs are refilling huge orders around that same price. The ops research with random data does absolutely nothing to refute such evidence. It is merely coincidence that even the random data shows a similar pattern happening. Does it really matter if it would only work 50% of the time? You could even trade breaches of highs and lows using the same logic but this time with the additional understanding that the liquidity hunters will trigger stops at these highs and lows to fill orders. The process is the same. Trade supply and demand and have wiggle room for the liquidity hunters and have an even bigger hit rate. The logic is absolutely solid. A solid logic with solid money management is all that is needed. As retail traders we can follow the larger institutions as well as being nimble as we are not relying on liquidity which will over come some of the short comings of being fundamentally misinformed.
  • #96
  • Feb 18, 2013 4:33am Feb 18, 2013 4:33am
Quoting Porkpie
Sceptism is healthy in the search of knowledge. Investigate everything and discard the crap and put right the contradictions as you move along. The most effective knowledge is the experience you gain from your own study and trading experience and record keeping of such. That record is worth much more than most of the stuff touted out there and will often lead you to knowledge that will help you.

I came to a point in my trading where I stripped all the indicators off my charts and began soley to look at turning points at pivot highs and lows. It...
Excellent post. Speaking of coincidences, I'd just been reading some of your posts in the now ancient "Behind Price - Orderflow" thread, and it seems your opinion hasn't changed a bit. Some things will never stop working in the markets and orderflow (supply and demand) is one of them. Going back to indicators, ascending scallops, and other nonsense is completely unthinkable after you open this can of worms.
  • #97
  • Feb 18, 2013 5:36am Feb 18, 2013 5:36am
Quoting SugarPink
Paranoid logic ?
Conspiracy theorists ?
I think its more conspiracy theorist and paranoid to say that dealing desks pushing prices to those levels, and banks are putting there orders etc.etc.
You are taking things too literally.

Of course there are orders at supply and demand levels but that alone doesn't mean much. If someone suddenly puts in a big market order to sell near a demand level price may just blow through that level.

These levels are not the holy grail.
  • #98
  • Feb 18, 2013 6:37am Feb 18, 2013 6:37am
Quoting Porkpie
It is no coincidence that supply and demand works. Forex trades huge volumes and traders using size need to fill their orders at certain prices (...). The logic is absolutely solid. A solid logic with solid money management is all that is needed.
I will not regard those levels as I used to do from now on.
I don't know if its coincidence or not. But I am sure that mtgox exchange doesn't there order waiting to be filled for sure. even discarding the random data, I know that to be true.

Anyway I have more things to show that might interest you guys that use supply & demand levels. But I don't have time now.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #99
  • Feb 18, 2013 6:45am Feb 18, 2013 6:45am
Supply & Demand is not the Holy Grail of trading, but the trader himself is. Supply & Demand
is working for me & has been for sometime now. It takes time to learn, but it is well worth the
time & effort. Many hours of chart time & a keen desire to succeed should have you discarding the
many indicators from your chart & trading what you see.

All anyone would needs to learn trading Supply & Demand is freely available if you are willing to do the research.


When I started reading this thread the "Turtle Trader's" quickly came to mind. All those selected
to become part of the program were given a strict set of rules outlining how the method was to be
traded. The end results were many ended being net losers, but there was those that went on to become very profitable going on to manage there own hedge funds.


To some the glass will always be half full.

The end results of any endeavor you chose to engage in will be a direct results of your diligence.

Best To All
____________________
  • #100
  • Feb 18, 2013 6:53am Feb 18, 2013 6:53am
Sugar Pink,

Looking forward to what will share next. Always willing to see what others see that I missed.
We might not always agree, but we can get along, share & swap ideas as we go.

________________________
0 traders viewing now