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Sam Seiden Supply & Demand no more value than technical analysis?

  • #61
  • Edited 2:56pm Feb 16, 2013 2:54pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting SugarPink
I didn't had any losses. I feel cheated becase I think he lied. there are not banks orders in there, and I was putting my money there, when there isnt there anything, like a stupid. everyone here is putting orders there like there are unfilled bank orders.
How do you know that? Because a strong rally blew threw your level? There's no way to see the number of contracts sitting at a level, we can only know that there was buying or selling there the last time price reached it and that there's probably some left. That's why we only take the first retracement.


Quote
The thing is, if you do it by the book then you will see that it doesnt work as much as you think it would. Why do you think no one does it by the book in this forum ? its becase it doesnt work as much.
Fresh levels, tigh stops ? just try to do it by the book yourself, without cheating.. just do it by the book.
I do it by the book, without 'cheating'. I have real money on it. I take losses, but I make more than I lose. That's all that matters.
  • #62
  • Feb 16, 2013 2:56pm Feb 16, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting SugarPink
I didn't had any losses. I feel cheated becase I think he lied. there are not banks orders in there, and I was putting my money there, when there isnt there anything, like a stupid. everyone here is putting orders there like there are unfilled bank orders.



The thing is, if you do it by the book then you will see that it doesnt work as much as you think it would. Why do you think no one does it by the book in this forum ? its becase it doesnt work as much.
Fresh levels, tigh stops ? just try to do it by the book yourself, without cheating.. just...
you should try it consistently for 2 months and see if you make progress before you say that ... if you have a 2:1 rr ratio, you don't have to win that much to be profitable, so a loosing streak doesnt mean it doesnt work ...
  • #63
  • Feb 16, 2013 3:25pm Feb 16, 2013 3:25pm
hey Starry yes, its not about working or not, I think it works, the price bouncing of those levels thing. i can see that it works sometimes.

Kanzler ok then. At least I am happy to know that those areas mean nothing, or not as much as i was beliving it to.
I think you saw the webinars, but probably didnt paid as much attention to some details he says.
Like I said, i had very big motivation and concern for everything he said. and I would not forget anything. After a while you see him doing stuff that he teached to be the opposite. like taking not good structuraly levels, and call them good ones. etc etc.. selling at supply when demand was build right below it.. things like that.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #64
  • Feb 16, 2013 3:47pm Feb 16, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting SugarPink
hey Starry yes, its not about working or not, I think it works, the price bouncing of those levels thing. i can see that it works sometimes.

Kanzler ok then. At least I am happy to know that those areas mean nothing, or not as much as i was beliving it to.
I think you saw the webinars, but probably didnt paid as much attention to some details he says.
Like I said, i had very big motivation and concern for everything he said. and I would not forget anything. After a while you see him doing stuff that he teached to be the opposite. like taking not...
yeah, they dont bother to mention the small details like that /exceptions which are based on experience (witih experience, they know how to bend the rules, or have a bunch of exceptions)... ive seen that before, on harmonics. its not that it couldnt be taught, or at least pointed out, it just doesnt happen i dont know why ..... maybe its natural for them
  • #65
  • Feb 16, 2013 3:54pm Feb 16, 2013 3:54pm
Quoting Starry
yeah, they dont bother to mention the small details like that /exceptions which are based on experience (witih experience, they know how to bend the rules, or have a bunch of exceptions)... ive seen that before, on harmonics. its not that it couldnt be taught, or at least pointed out, it just doesnt happen i dont know why ..... maybe its natural for them
Exactly he must be bending the rules, it's one way to put it.
For me its all false now. I don't belive in any of this selling orders of big institutions there, That was the only reason i was taking the levels. I think I showed a lot of evidence that he is lying too. and I know people want to belive on something they have been doing for so long.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #66
  • Feb 16, 2013 4:00pm Feb 16, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting SugarPink
Exactly he must be bending the rules, it's one way to put it.
For me its all false now. I don't belive in any of this selling orders of big institutions there, That was the only reason i was taking the levels. I think I showed a lot of evidence that he is lying too. and I know people want to belive on something they have been doing for so long.
Could you provide an example of when he 'lies'? I haven't seen any of this, and such an accusation certainly warrants evidence on the part of the accuser.
  • #67
  • Feb 16, 2013 4:11pm Feb 16, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting SugarPink
Exactly he must be bending the rules, it's one way to put it.
For me its all false now. I don't belive in any of this selling orders of big institutions there, That was the only reason i was taking the levels. I think I showed a lot of evidence that he is lying too. and I know people want to belive on something they have been doing for so long.
remember, though, it still works , and such 'bending of rules' to make it more accurate can be learned through experience. not that im saying hes doing that , i havent seen him... so its not really about believing in it , the basic concept works, you just need to try it out for 2 months or so, and carefully document when 'weak zones' work out, etc, and then create a hypothesis, try it out, etc.... but also remember to just trade the strong zones, because theres always a chance you're wrong, and that they work the best ...
  • #68
  • Feb 16, 2013 4:12pm Feb 16, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting Kanzler
Could you provide an example of when he 'lies'? I haven't seen any of this, and such an accusation certainly warrants evidence on the part of the accuser.
Yes. I can't prove that he is lying. But I would be a bit blind and naive to belive him now after this.
When I can fit all of his explanations (all of them, the pullbacks, the news events that are good to use when they hit the levels, the not correct levels that fail) I can fit those explanations on random charts it becomes quite suspecious to me that he is not telling the truth, and dealing desks getting paid to fill the orders ? how do the non informed retail orders are absorved into the banks opposite orders, what about informed traders, what if they buy at that price do they also take it?. And i am pretty sure there are not orders there to be filled in the mtgox exchange. so yes. .I think he is lying, it would be naive not to think so.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #69
  • Feb 16, 2013 4:48pm Feb 16, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting SugarPink
Yes. I can't prove that he is lying. But I would be a bit blind and naive to belive him now after this.
When I can fit all of his explanations (all of them, the pullbacks, the news events that are good to use when they hit the levels, the not correct levels that fail) I can fit those explanations on random charts it becomes quite suspecious to me that he is not telling the truth, and dealing desks getting paid to fill the orders ? how do the non informed retail orders are absorved into the banks opposite orders, what about informed traders, what...
After what? I haven't seen any evidence of deception. If you create random charts you can see any pattern you're looking for if you look enough. That proves nothing and if you dismiss this practice with that kind of logic you must dismiss any chart analysis the same way.

Of course there are orders to be filled at MtGox. Haven't you ever used the exchange? I've had partial fills there as well and the rest of it gets filled the next time price visits the price I set for my limit order.
  • #70
  • Feb 17, 2013 8:25am Feb 17, 2013 8:25am
Quoting Kanzler
Of course there are orders to be filled at MtGox.
No there aren't. I am talking about in the levels. I go see the orderbook and there aren't any more significant orders there to be filled in those levels. And there aren't any dealing desks that work on the bitcoin market to fill clientes orders, yet they are respected.

Sam says those supply&demand areas work becase its becase bank orders that are there.
I don't see any orders there.
Therefor he is lying.

Its easy to follow this logical steps.
I was only taking these areas becase I thought there were orders there like he said.

Quote
If you create random charts you can see any pattern you're looking for if you look enough. That proves nothing
yep it proves nothing.

Look I know you are probably the last person who is going to stop going beliving in him. you even have a quote of him on your signature.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #71
  • Feb 17, 2013 8:42am Feb 17, 2013 8:42am
I've always said; "those who can't, teach."
  • #72
  • Feb 17, 2013 9:45am Feb 17, 2013 9:45am
Quoting SugarPink

I am very objective person about markets, I never used any TA in my life, I don't like anything that adds confusion and subjectivity. I would perfer to put trade at random and know my true odds. Instead of being on the illusion.
If you are looking for objectivity, "true odds" and certainty, then trading may not be for you. Of course you could find repeatbale patterns and calculate the percentage of them being profitable and start trading. But if trading where that easy, anyone could do it.

Likewise, if you trade using supply and demand zones mechanically, you will lose your shirt, guaranteed !
  • #73
  • Edited 10:02am Feb 17, 2013 9:47am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting Traderlarry
If you are looking for objectivity, "true odds" and certainty, then trading may not be for you. Of course you could find repeatbale patterns and calculate the percentage of them being profitable and start trading. But if trading where that easy, anyone could do it.
yea I kinda agree with you.
I know people who trade consistently with systems made up from only babypips school basic knowledge. ofcourse its not a pure mechanical way and you have to bend rules at times.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRx9RgxPcGs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRx9RgxPcGs)

and her blog.
http://traderla.com/
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #74
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:16am Feb 17, 2013 10:16am
I think the problem many have with S&D trading is it takes a shed load of practice and effort to get good at it. It probably needs 6 months dedication to get a solid grasp of it and possibly years to become proficient.

Most people haven't got that desire or commitment and are better suited to following some mechanical system with rigid rules.
  • #75
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:26am Feb 17, 2013 10:26am
Quoting SugarPink
yea I kinda agree with you.
I know people who trade consistently with systems made up from only babypips school basic knowledge. ofcourse its not a pure mechanical way and you have to bend rules at times.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRx9RgxPcGs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRx9RgxPcGs)

and her blog.
http://traderla.com/
cool! neato blog
  • #76
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:37am Feb 17, 2013 10:37am
Quoting C-12
I think the problem many have with S&D trading is it takes a shed load of practice and effort to get good at it. It probably needs 6 months dedication to get a solid grasp of it and possibly years to become proficient.

Most people haven't got that desire or commitment and are better suited to following some mechanical system with rigid rules.
I have enough motivation and effort to trade with this. IF there were really orders there waiting to be filled.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #77
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:50am Feb 17, 2013 10:50am
Quoting SugarPink
I have enough motivation and effort to trade with this. IF there were really orders there waiting to be filled.
that doesnt make sense, you said yourself that it works on random walks. therefore, you're saying that you dont need big orders filled at these prices in order for them to work, its simply an emergent property of the market. so use them! and if its simply an emergent property, then there should be a way to better utilize them through experience (i.e. bend rules => get closer to rules that more correctly reflect market), since it has nothing to do with strength of orders there.... im telling you, look at harmonics and look at your random walk chart, and see how harmonics is also an emergent property which will probably explain more accurately why some zones work and others dont......
  • #78
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:55am Feb 17, 2013 10:55am
Quoting SugarPink
I have enough motivation and effort to trade with this. IF there were really orders there waiting to be filled.
Sam Seiden's method with all his rules and odds enhancers is simply one way to trade but not the only way.

Supply and demand functions across all time frames and fresh levels show up all the time so that's why some levels appear not to work and some do. You've got to be very dynamic in the way you view the market and not apply such a static view.
  • #79
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:57am Feb 17, 2013 10:57am
Quoting C-12
Sam Seiden's method with all his rules and odds enhancers is simply one way to trade but not the only way.

Supply and demand functions across all time frames and fresh levels show up all the time so that's why some levels appear not to work and some do. You've got to be very dynamic in the way you view the market and not apply such a static view.
exactly, this is what i have also noticed with harmonics. sometimes microdynamics (smaller timeframe dynamics) can change the macro picture, but you will see warning of this impending change on the larger timeframe ....
  • #80
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:05am Feb 17, 2013 11:05am
Quoting Starry
that doesnt make sense, you said yourself that it works on random walks. therefore, you're saying that you dont need big orders filled at these prices in order for them to work, its simply an emergent property of the market. so use them! and if its simply an emergent property, then there should be a way to better utilize them through experience (i.e. bend rules => get closer to rules that more correctly reflect market), since it has nothing to do with strength of orders there.... im telling you, look at harmonics and look at your random walk chart,...
yeah thats also true.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
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