GAINSY Hottest Forecasts

Canadian Manufacturing Sales Plunged 3.1% in December
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

Canadian manufacturing sales plunged by an outsized 3.1% in December 2012, which was the largest monthly decline since May 2009 and was well below market expectations for a 0.8% drop. November's previously reported 1.7% increase was upwardly revised to 1.9%; however, October's reading was downwardly revised to -1.8% from -1.2% previously. Much of the weakness in December reflected an outsized 15.4% drop in motor vehicle sales that offset a 6.5% gain in aerospace sales to send the transportation component down 9.1% in the month. The weakness in auto sales may have reflected difficulties in seasonally adjusting the data around the December holiday period; however, excluding the auto component, sales were still down 1.9% thereby reflecting relatively broadly based weakness. In all, 16 of 21 industries reported lower sales in December. As well, the decline in nominal sales overall was despite lower prices with the volume of sales declining by an even greater 3.8% in the month. ...

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U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declined in January
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The unexpected weakness in January (market expectations had been for a 0.2% increase in industrial production) largely reflected manufacturing output declining by 0.4% in the month, although this followed sizable upward revisions in December and November (to 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively from previously reported gains of 0.8% and 1.3%). Within manufacturing, durable good production fell 0.5% in January and was led by a 3.2% drop in motor vehicle and parts production, while non-durable good manufacturing saw a more modest 0.3% decline on fairly broad-based weakness. Mining output also declined downwardly by 1.0% in January, which was consistent with the earlier reported drop in the index of aggregate bank weekly hours for that sector in the month. Utilities production recoiled from December's 4.5% decline with a 3.5% gain in January as demand for heating rose and temperatures fell closer to their seasonal norms. ...

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Weekly Focus: Who Will Head Bank of Japan?
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

Market Movers ahead

- The housing market will be dominating the US calendar next bank week, when we will get new data on housing starts, building permits, existing homes sales and the NAHB housing market index.

- Minutes from the January FOMC meeting are due for release on Monday and it will be interesting to see whether the discussion about ending the QE programme during 2013 continued.

- In the euro area it will be a bank week with a number of interesting releases. Germany releases ZEW data on Tuesday and IFO numbers on Friday. We expect ZEW to increase from 31.5 to 39 and the IFO expectations index to increase from 100.5 to 101.8. The Italian general election on 24-25 February is likely to be an important market mover.

- In Japan focus next bank week will be on the possible nomination of a new governor for Bank of Japan in addition to two new deputy-governors.

- In Sweden inflation is expected to be below the brand-new Riksbank forecast. ...

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Election Risks in Europe are Back in Focus
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

Since the onset of the sovereign debt crisis we have seen the impact member states' elections can have on volatility for euro-based assets. Thus, the recent stabilisation in the currency bloc and appreciation of the euro and European stocks could be under threat by the outcome of elections in Cyprus and Italy in the coming days.

Cyprus heads to the polling stations on February 17th; however the polls predict no outright winner. The DISY party could end up in a head-to-head contest with the SKEL's candidate. From a market perspective a win for DISY is probably the best to sustain "stability" in the currency bloc as this party, led by Nicos Anastasiades, is the most likely to agree to the necessary austerity and reform package needed to secure a bailout from the ESM. ...

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Weekly Stocktaking and Forecast: JPY Down Trend to Resume as G20 Risk Cleared
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Much volatility was seen in the Japanese yen last bank week on talk of so called "currency war" and on concern that the expansive policies that drove down the the currency would be criticized by G7 and G20 leaders. The G7 statement released in the early part of the bank week and subsequent comments from officials confused the markets. But in the end, there was some steep selloff in yen late Friday on news that the depreciation of the Japanese currency won't be singled out. Indeed, Japan escaped from criticism by the G20 statement which ended with pledge to refrain from competitive currency devaluation. The yen's downtrend would now be set to resume this bank week as this uncertainty is cleared. Meanwhile, Euro extended its correction last bank week as data showed deepened recession in Eurozone and as traders lightened up positions ahead of elections in Italy. Sterling also weakened broadly after a dovish BoE quarterly inflation report. New Zealand dollar was surprisingly the strongest currency last bank week after some positive economic data. ...

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Daily Statement: JPY Weakens Broadly in Reaction to G20
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

JPY weakens broadly in Asian session today as Japan escaped from direct criticism from G20 on recent policies that drove the sharp currency depreciation. It's reported that Japan received no censure during the meeting and its policies were more considered for supporting the economy rather than intentional devaluation. G20's statement just mentioned a pledge not to target the exchange rates for "competitive purposes. Outgoing BoJ governor Shirakawa re-iterated that BoJ's measures "have been and will remain" targeted at achieving a "robust economy through stable prices," and the G20 statement is "absolutely in the same spirit of our monetary policy." It's believed that while Japan might refrain from talking about the currency, it would continue to purse aggressive fiscal and monetary easing ahead, in particular after the new BoJ governor comes on board. ...

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Elliott Wave Forecast: EUR/JPY – Buy at 124.00
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

EUR/JPY – 125.35

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A is unfolding for gain to 130.00

Trend: Up

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Forex Signal: USD/JPY – Buy at 93.00
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

USD/JPY – 93.94

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Up

Tenkan-Sen level : 93.97
Kijun-Sen level : 93.23
Ichimoku cloud top : 93.02
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 92.83

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Forex Signal: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3415
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

EUR/USD – 1.3338

Most recent candlesticks pattern : Shooting star

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level :1.3341
Kijun-Sen level :1.3343
Ichimoku cloud top :1.3418
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.3375

Original strategy :
Sell at 1.3480, Target: 1.3380, Stop: 1.3515

Target: -
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Forex Signal: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5600
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

GBP/USD - 1.5497

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Down

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.5489
Kijun-Sen level :1.5506
Ichimoku cloud top :1.5582
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.5504

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China Avoids Tripping Economic On Government's Spends
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The world's second largest economy avoids tripping economic which noticed in China many times especially amid the raised Europe's woes and high inflation rates, where Chinese economy recorded reasonable growth rates in 2012.

Meanwhile, Chinese economy notices accelerated growth rates recently especially after the previous expand in the nation's exports and trade balance as well as industrial production and PMI. ...

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Asia Session: The JPY Sinks Post-G20
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The G20 has given Japan the green light to continue on its path of aggressive policy easing, not that it can do much to stop a currency from being fundamentally weakened, as is the case in Japan. Whilst global finance ministers objected to the idea of governments manipulating their currencies, they didn't single out Japan. In effect, this tells Japan that its path of aggressive policy loosening is acceptable as long as it isn't directly aimed at the yen. Australian Treasurer Swam praised Japan's effort to combat deflation and boost growth, although he reiterated that currency manipulation cannot be tolerated. ...

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GBP/USD: UK House Prices Rises In February, Indicates Rightmove
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT on Friday, GBP rose 0.20% against the USD and closed at 1.5518.

On the economic front, annual retail sales in the UK eased 0.6% in January, compared to a revised 0.1% rise recorded in the previous month. Market had expected a 0.8% rise. Additionally, monthly retail sales fell 0.6% (MoM) in January, against the expected 0.4% rise and compared to the revised 0.3% fall in the previous month. ...

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USD/JPY: JPY Sags After Japan Escapes Criticism From G20 Nations, PM Abe's Comments
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT on Friday, the USD strengthened 0.63% against the JPY and closed at 93.53.

On Friday, in its monthly report, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicated that the economy is likely to end further downturn and exports and industrial production will start picking up gradually in the months ahead. Moreover, industrial production grew 2.4% (MoM) in December, lower than the 2.5% increase initially estimated, while capacity utilization rose 2.9% (MoM) in December.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 94.07, with the USD trading 0.58% higher from Friday's close. ...

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USD/CAD: Disappointing Canadian Manufacturing Data Cast A Shadow On The Local Currency
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by GCI Financial | Feb 18 13 06:24 GMT

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT on Friday, the USD rose 0.58% against the CAD to close at 1.0068. The Canadian USD staged a sharp decline against the US USD on Friday, after weaker-than-forecast Canadian manufacturing sales data added to concerns over the outlook for the economy. Meanwhile, existing homes sales in Canada rose in January from December, but decreased year over year. ...

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AUD/USD: Aussie Trading Lower This Morning
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT on Friday, the AUD weakened 0.41% against the USD to close at 1.0307. The US USD gained after the release of stronger-than-expected increase in US consumer sentiment and a surge in the New York manufacturing data. However, industrial production unexpectedly declined.

LME Copper prices declined 0.1% or $6.8/MT to $8198.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.4% or $7.8/MT to $2123.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0288, with the AUD trading 0.18% lower from Friday’s close. ...

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EUR/USD: Trading Lower In The Asian Session This Morning
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT on Friday, EUR rose marginally against the USD and closed at 1.3359, as investor risk appetite improved amid upbeat US economic data.

In the US, empire state manufacturing activity to a reading of 10.0 in February, from a reading of -7.8 in January, while preliminary reading of the consumer sentiment index stood at a reading 76.3 in February, compared to a final reading of 73.8 in January. However, the Federal Reserve reported that, industrial production fell 0.1% in January, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in December. ...

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JPY Back To Bearish After G20
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The G20 meeting ended yesterday in Moscow, with no explicit mention on the recent JPY weakening. Despite the fears that Japan would be under guns in front of the World's leading finance chiefs and central bankers, G20 deputies did not single out Japan in discussions on communiqué. G20 is willing to tolerate more policy easing in Japan to defeat the deflation, as long as the policy makers do not publicly advocate JPY sliding. ...

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JPY Stays Weak After G20 Communique
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

- Rates: Quiet end of last bank week; ditto start today?
Global core bonds ended a dull trading session ahead the long bank weekend in the US nearly unchanged. This bank week, the calendar is back loaded with Italian elections next bank weekend and a second round face-off Cypriot presidential vote, which may keep core bonds sideways oriented.

- Currencies: JPY stays weak after G20 communiqué.
Global currency traders kept a close eye on the headlines from the G20 meeting in Moscow. Already on Friday, there were strong indications that Japan wouldn’t be mentioned in the statement on FX. The yen weakened but the impact on EUR/USD was limited. This bank week, investors might stay cautious on the euro ahead of the Italian elections. ...

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G20 Ends With Clear Statement Against Currency Wars
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The euro (EUR) moved lower versus the US dollar (USD) currently at 1.3345 as European markets open. Currency wars have been avoided according to the G20 meeting that took place during the bank weekend in Moscow, however it seems that world leaders are willing to give Japan the flexibility to devalue its currency. Looking ahead we expect the European trade balance to be in surplus which may give a small boost to the single currency; however it looks more probable that a negative economic sentiment release from Germany later in the day may overshadow any positive news for the euro. ...

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