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Higher low, lower high system

  • #5,961
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:02am Feb 15, 2013 2:02am
Hello. Do you think the plotted red line is a valid support ? If so, Is it viable to take Counter trades ?
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My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #5,962
  • Feb 15, 2013 6:22am Feb 15, 2013 6:22am
Quoting money89
Hello. Do you think the plotted red line is a valid support ? If so, Is it viable to take Counter trades ?
Sorry for being late completely swamped at the moment. Turned down the chance for lunch today, yes I'm that busy. Just taking a quick break.

It is without question a SR level. I don't know if its going to hold or fail. We did have a much smaller bounce this morning compared to 14th, so that would make me think its going to fail.

On CT I didn't see any great 1 hr 3 bar reversal type closes that would give me confidence in a move up i.e. the flow has changed. Just a very weak bounce up.

Same CT rules apply confluence of proven SR level, divergences, W pivots, flow change. So far it looks like pa not confirming, it could do after the news we'll see.
  • #5,963
  • Edited 8:21am Feb 15, 2013 8:13am | Edited 8:21am
Hi Van

today a engulf up close with up wick and testing 8lwma on EJ H1.is it valid signal?

frank
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  • #5,964
  • Feb 15, 2013 10:30am Feb 15, 2013 10:30am
Quoting frank.david
Hi Van

today a engulf up close with up wick and testing 8lwma on EJ H1.is it valid signal?

frank
The candle with the upper wick marginal. We do have the D resistance level at 123.25 area, 1hr divergence also. But that candle with the 25 pip or so upper wick, thats a stretch. The positive close that follows it a different story.

If I remember in the last week or so we had exactly the same set up. Biggish upper wick followed immediately by a positive close candle setting up the move.
  • #5,965
  • Feb 15, 2013 12:33pm Feb 15, 2013 12:33pm
Hi Van

Gu chart has a nice Hanging man formation on H1.did you sell Gu here?


thanks

frank
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  • #5,966
  • Feb 15, 2013 12:42pm Feb 15, 2013 12:42pm
[quote=frank.david;6450184]Hi Van

Gu chart has a nice Hanging man formation on H1.did you sell Gu here?


Investopedia explains 'Hanging Man'

This formation does not mean that the bulls have definitively lost control, but it may be an early sign that the momentum is decreasing and the direction of the asset may be getting ready to change. The reliability of this signal is drastically improved when the price of the asset decreases the day after the signal. Hanging man formations can be more easily identified in intraday charts than daily charts and are a very popular formation used by day traders.

If this pattern is found at the end of a downtrend, it is known as a "hammer".
  • #5,967
  • Feb 16, 2013 12:02am Feb 16, 2013 12:02am
[quote=frank.david;6450197]
Quoting frank.david
Hi Van

Gu chart has a nice Hanging man formation on H1.did you sell Gu here?


Investopedia explains 'Hanging Man'

This formation does not mean that the bulls have definitively lost control, but it may be an early sign that the momentum is decreasing and the direction of the asset may be getting ready to change. The reliability of this signal is drastically improved when the price of the asset decreases the day after the signal. Hanging man formations can be more easily identified...
I was busy, Mrs V out of action and I didn't get the hanging man. Didn't get message from FF on this post and never saw your chart.
  • #5,968
  • Feb 16, 2013 12:05am Feb 16, 2013 12:05am
This is what I understand hanging man to be, from candlesticker link on blog http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs26.asp
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  • #5,969
  • Feb 16, 2013 12:09am Feb 16, 2013 12:09am
Quoting Vantage
This is what I understand hanging man to be, from candlesticker link on blog http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs26.asp
According to them its a low reliability bearish signal at the end of a run up. If in uptrend I would not be selling automatically. If its a red close hanging man that made a double top I'd be more interested. I'd be looking for flow reversal if CT.
  • #5,970
  • Feb 16, 2013 12:20am Feb 16, 2013 12:20am
Quoting Vantage
According to them its a low reliability bearish signal at the end of a run up. If in uptrend I would not be selling automatically. If its a red close hanging man that made a double top I'd be more interested. I'd be looking for flow reversal if CT.
Aha now that I've seen your chart it was at Y's high/W S2 so if you had a down bias like we did the 15 min double top would have been a nice trade back into trend. Haven't checked to see if right before news. Not that Mrs V (if trading) is scared off by that. Excluding the biggies NFP, interest rate day EUR and UK and UK int rate minutes she is not scared by the news at all. She is one of those that believes the big boys pretty much know whats coming and provided candles are clean and pa is not visibly jumpy (spiking really crazy whilst candle being formed) she will look to take trades that meet rules.
  • #5,971
  • Feb 16, 2013 12:29am Feb 16, 2013 12:29am
Quoting Vantage
Aha now that I've seen your chart it was at Y's high/W S2 so if you had a down bias like we did the 15 min double top would have been a nice trade back into trend. Haven't checked to see if right before news. Not that Mrs V (if trading) is scared off by that. Excluding the biggies NFP, interest rate day EUR and UK and UK int rate minutes she is not scared by the news at all. She is one of those that believes the big boys pretty much know whats coming and provided candles are clean and pa is not visibly jumpy (spiking really crazy whilst candle being...
This is the 15 min chart. Just above 50 psych level is M4 (all Mrs V knows is she loves the green D pivots), then W S2 and Y's high all within a few pips of each other.

We had view of scalp buys, bias down until D proves otherwise. 15 min double top at that cluster of resistance levels. See the arrow down in the box. Thats the pa 3 bar reversal i.e. it means the candle immediately before the arrow closed lower that the 2 previous candle closes. Exactly as its meant to, a good early signal back into the down bias.

Did not get this just showing what we are looking for.
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  • #5,972
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:30pm Feb 17, 2013 10:30pm
EUR GU EJ 18 Feb

18 Feb

EUR - Weekly closed a doji, D closed a doji at the Dec '12 highs. Not decisive for buys or sells. Perhaps just treading water whilst the G20, G7 meetings were on. 4hr had a double bottom with divergence but remains on lower high. 1hr on lower high. Bias down with potential move up from the support level.

GU - Weekly had a 3 bar reversal closing well below the previous 2 closes. D closed a doji. 4hr showed divergence for move up, still on lower high. We are very close to the lows. Bias down with potential move up from the support level.

EJ - D closed a hammer RSI above 50 level. 1hr flow higher high higher low, bias up.
  • #5,973
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:45pm Feb 17, 2013 11:45pm
I apologise if this question has been answered previously.
Why do you only trade EU,GU and EJ and why not other pair's ??
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #5,974
  • Feb 18, 2013 12:18am Feb 18, 2013 12:18am
Quoting money89
I apologise if this question has been answered previously.
Why do you only trade EU,GU and EJ and why not other pair's ??
I find it difficult to focus on too many and do a decent analysis. Most of the time if other pairs are going then one of these 3 will be in any event. Mrs V simply cannot focus on more than 3, doesn't matter what I'd try and do.

Thankfully there are few days when one of these 3 does not have a decent trade set up. If you are going to look at other pairs then look for something trending strongly. How strong can something trend that would beat EJ over last few months, so back to same issue. Whats running better than these 3?
  • #5,975
  • Feb 18, 2013 3:23am Feb 18, 2013 3:23am
Looks like Mrs V out of action again today and theres no way I'll get time for charts.
  • #5,976
  • Feb 18, 2013 3:48am Feb 18, 2013 3:48am
Quoting Vantage
Looks like Mrs V out of action again today and theres no way I'll get time for charts.
IMVHO that's what separates you and Mrs V. from the majority of traders.

The wisdom to know when not to trade and the discipline to only trade your selected pairs when you do.

Healthy, Wealthy & Steady!!
  • #5,977
  • Feb 18, 2013 7:10am Feb 18, 2013 7:10am
Thanks for the reply and may I know what the win ratio so far..cause as u have included indicators..

And so both you and Mrs.v trade together ?
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #5,978
  • Feb 18, 2013 2:11pm Feb 18, 2013 2:11pm
Hi Vantage,

I had GU sell entry after this M15 candle, with H1 engulfing close, yet it didn't work out. How should we avoid such trade?

Thanks
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  • #5,979
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:33pm Feb 18, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting money89
Thanks for the reply and may I know what the win ratio so far..cause as u have included indicators..

And so both you and Mrs.v trade together ?

Previously yes when Mrs V had her training wheels on. For the last 15 months or so I have been back in the family business. So I do blog, mentor her, discuss set ups if she feels the need. On occasion give my 2c if I think there is a problem with trade.

For a while Mrs V was doing what all people do (I think) having success with a method then trying to trade everything in sight because you can (or so you think). When she finally got it through her head that top down trading, following the flow, CT with over whelming evidence her results have been spectacular. Her improvement came when she switched from 5 to 15 min for entry and she mentally clicked that she DOES NOT have to trade everything in sight. Solid trend trades (or CT when comply with rules) are coming. If not today, then tomorrow or the day after that.

Oct and Nov were superb, Dec and Jan weren't as she was either on holiday or not well to trade. She has missed oh 5 days this month at least and results so far are 12-2. Her % return on account is staggering as she has been trading 4% risk for some time due to her high win rate. This months % ROI is better than anything I ever did, even taking the higher risk into account.
  • #5,980
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:42pm Feb 18, 2013 10:42pm
Quoting kelvintc
Hi Vantage,

I had GU sell entry after this M15 candle, with H1 engulfing close, yet it didn't work out. How should we avoid such trade?

Thanks
We rarely trade on Mon mornings and Fri mornings around LO, exactly for this kind of reason. We most likely would not have sold break below the 15 min hammer, there was a decent wick on 1hr. Then the lower wicks on 15 min were a big warning, see the x. When the lower high failed I'd be looking to exit at BE, see arrow down.
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