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Sam Seiden Supply & Demand no more value than technical analysis?

  • #41
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:18pm Feb 15, 2013 1:18pm
When I see the charts in the first post, I feel you aren't looking at the right areas. The very first chart, if going from top to bottom, the first zone is okay, but the second is what? Then, there's only one more instance where a supply imbalance has been marked.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #42
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:13pm Feb 15, 2013 2:13pm
@HiddenGap
That is true. And price moves when there are imbalances of supply and demand also.

I am not saying that is not true. But claiming that institutions are leaving big orders on those price levels and after seeing this. I just find it hard to belive. Not to mention his thing of dealing desks pushing price to those levels to fill the orders and fool retail traders and what not. see also about that demand area of the S&P500 from 1997.?

Can you see here another 2 areas that were respected ? I see them.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s&d13.png Size: 22 KB
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #43
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:04pm Feb 15, 2013 3:04pm
ah ok. I don't know about that stuff you are talking about, that concept/system.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #44
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:49pm Feb 15, 2013 3:49pm
Note: this thread had been moved to the commercial content section. As I do not post in any thread in this section, I have deleted my posts.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #45
  • Feb 15, 2013 5:44pm Feb 15, 2013 5:44pm
I want to say that if this thread saves anyone from spending thousands of dollars for something they can learn from demo trading and learning from others and on their own quest it will have served FF well.

Pick up your spear and throw it! Spend the time with the charts. Stop looking for the path of least resistance and pay your dues.

No one has ever picked up a musical instrument and just played it and perfect practice will deliver what you came for...control to do.

Trading is self satisfying when you are the maker of the magic that you seek...being and becoming are yours if you stay on the learning curve
and put your money into your own account.

Remember, BabyPips is free.

Sam Seiden and the whole 'let me show you how crowd' can sure make the noob feel there is a short path to riches.

I say the short path to riches is the step by step learning curve that you stay on because you know you will learn through chart time and self discovery.
Oh yeah, there are many fine traders here @ FF that talk out loud and what they have to give freely is helpful guidance. Just sit down front and learn

Thank you for your time
mirico
  • #46
  • Feb 15, 2013 8:32pm Feb 15, 2013 8:32pm
hey sugarpink, can you post the code you used to generate the markets, or atleast say how you did it? very interested, especially if random generated markets create similar patterns! i would love to see if harmonics is displayed in these random markets, i believe they are i can see it in the pics....

so supply/demand levels and harmonics are emergent properties, this is very interesting, i am very interested in order from chaos....
  • #47
  • Feb 15, 2013 8:42pm Feb 15, 2013 8:42pm
Quoting juhanimi
Is that level too?
why didn't you take this?
Attached Image
  • #48
  • Edited 10:18pm Feb 15, 2013 9:36pm | Edited 10:18pm
I have quite a few problems with your assertion that supply and demand doesn't work. Let me start off with your random charts. Random charts are not real charts. The real market is not based on a 'normal distribution'. Order flow is in fact what draws candles on your chart and if you have an objection to that I suggest you go take a look at an exchange that gives you access to the order ladder. When bitcoin was brand new MtGox, the main exchange, gave traders access to this and it was very clear where price would stop and reverse (although quickly enough people would start pulling their huge stacks of cash to manipulate the market lol). Given how complex the markets are I have absolutely no faith in an informal study based on a random distribution, much less one trying to 'disprove' something.

I am a strong advocate of Sam's methods for a couple of reasons. The first is that it is logical. Much more so than some derived statistical "edge" from moving averages, voodoo pivot levels, or other indicator generated nonsense. Every consistently profitable trader I've come across over the years has been a price action, naked charts trader. If there is a flaw with Sam's reasoning, I have failed so far to see it. The second is that it works. You won't win every trade, it isn't possible and you have to learn to live with that in any method you adopt. But if you choose solid levels and good take profit targets, you will make money. The biggest reason people who look at his material fail is because they can't follow directions.

As for the OTA, that's always been a suspicion of mine as well (I have no intention of purchasing it by the way, everything you need to understand is free). In fact, I recently emailed him about why he runs the academy if he is profitable trading. At the same time, the method works for me so I'm going to give it the benefit of the doubt. You can't be so suspicious of everything, because if you were you'd ask "Why bother being a broker if you can trade for yourself and make more money", at which point you just give up on trading because obviously trading profitably must be impossible then. Don't let paranoia retard your progress, although I invite rational skepticism.

Quoting PeterE
I've never found any edge in substituting the concepts support/resistance with the concepts supply/demand. The only difference seems to be, increase the width of your horizontal line when marking out your S/R.

Just another clever piece of marketing.
More than likely you aren't drawing the levels correctly, because I assure you they are not the same. I will say that it is not a proprietary secret, though - if you look closely breakout strategies follow a similar approach.
  • #49
  • Edited 4:05am Feb 16, 2013 3:55am | Edited 4:05am
Quote
I have quite a few problems with your assertion that supply and demand doesn't work.
I am not talking about Supply & Demand. I was talking about Sam Seiden Supply&Demand Levels. And more I didn't said that Sam Seiden levels don't work.
As you can see from the charts, it is actually working. They are working. Just look at them.

Quote
I am a strong advocate of Sam's methods for a couple of reasons. The first is that it is logical.
ok.
Quote
have absolutely no faith in an informal study based on a random distribution
I would perfer the word independent, oh and study?, oh you are too kind lol
Quote
If there is a flaw with Sam's reasoning, I have failed so far to see it.
What do you have left to support his logic steps its his word. and nothing else.

Its funny you talk about bitcoin, becase I had this idea when watching bitcoin charts. and guess what, they also have supply and demand areas. Are institutions putting their orders there too ? dealing desks and what not. Ok lets suppose that those areas are indeed of interest becase there was at the time a big imbalace there. It can happen.
I just don't belive since they occur naturally in a random walk and in bitcoin too where there arent big institutions there driving prices to those chuck of sell /buy orders so their clients can be filled like sam says it happens.
Other points like pullback within the levels, that Sam explains, are also in these charts.

By the way. The mtgox still has the order book avaible for everyone to see. its very intersting
In case people don't know what is bitcoin, its a virtual currency, decentralized, very robust and mature. its the future of currencys for me. i love it
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #50
  • Feb 16, 2013 4:24am Feb 16, 2013 4:24am
Quoting Starry
hey sugarpink, can you post the code you used to generate the markets, or atleast say how you did it? very interested, especially if random generated markets create similar patterns! i would love to see if harmonics is displayed in these random markets, i believe they are i can see it in the pics....

so supply/demand levels and harmonics are emergent properties, this is very interesting, i am very interested in order from chaos....
I used Mathematica v8.0

here is the code:
Inserted Code
randomWalk[n_] := 
 Accumulate[Prepend[RandomVariate[NormalDistribution[0, 1], n], 0]]

(*generate new random walk*)
size := 6000;
a = randomWalk[size];

(*create canldes*)
candles := {};
step := 25;
For[i = 1, i < size - step, i = i + step,
 raw = a[[i ;; i + step]];
 o = First[raw];
 c = Last[raw];
 h = First[Sort[raw, Greater]];
 l = Last[Sort[raw, Greater]];
 date = DatePlus[{2000, 1, 1}, i];
 candles = Append[candles, {date, {o, h, l, c}}];
 ]
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #51
  • Feb 16, 2013 4:28am Feb 16, 2013 4:28am
Quoting SugarPink
I am not talking about Supply & Demand. I was talking about Sam Seiden Supply&Demand Levels. And more I didn't said that Sam Seiden levels don't work.
For the purposes of discussion here I refer to "supply and demand" as they are used by Sam, because other uses seem to be in tandem with common support and resistance. I suppose the big difference is that we are trying to locate the origin of what later becomes S/R with supply and demand analysis.

Quote
What do you have left to support his logic steps its his word. and nothing else.
His word backed up by what I've seen in bitcoin and even online game economies (don't ask I don't want to further expose myself as a huge nerd ). Yes a bit of a reach but they all have the same basic foundation in order stacks. Practicing and having success with this method certainly hasn't hurt my opinion of it either.

Quote
Its funny you talk about bitcoin, becase I had this idea when watching bitcoin charts. and guess what, they also have supply and demand areas. Are institutions putting their orders there too ? dealing desks and what not. Ok lets suppose that those areas are indeed of interest becase there was at the time a big imbalace there. It can happen.
Given bitcoin is an extremely thin market you don't need institutions to be the origin, simply large traders. A few ten thousand dollars could move the market significantly there. If you could provide an example chart from MtGox though I'd certainly be interested though (their charting is awful by the way).

Quote
I just don't belive since they occur naturally in a random walk and in bitcoin too where there arent big institutions there driving prices to those chuck of sell /buy orders so their clients can be filled like sam says it happens.
Other points like pullback within the levels, that Sam explains, are also in these charts.
I maintain that the market is not a random walk, but this is a century old discussion, and I'll keep my point brief - I cannot accept the idea that collective human behavior is random, as well as the idea that money from the 95% of consistently losing traders is going into an invisible void. Someone has to be raking it in, right? The fact that it showed up in your charts means very little to me except that you potentially cherrypicked some examples or that it is mere coincidence. Or both - in either case it hardly disproves that the origin of the patterns in the real market could very well be what I believe them to be.

Quote
By the way. The mtgox still has the order book avaible for everyone to see. its very intersting
In case people don't know what is bitcoin, its a virtual currency, decentralized, very robust and mature. its the future of currencys for me. i love it
Completely agree, bitcoin is truly revolutionary. I fear that a larger scale success of it will lead to government crackdown though, especially since it is so heavily associated with the anonymous black market.
  • #52
  • Edited 8:12am Feb 16, 2013 5:12am | Edited 8:12am
I also don't belive that markets are random also. This is not implying that markets are just in and out random orders.

Quote
His word backed up by what I've seen in bitcoin and even online game economies
How can you say bitcoin has sam seiden demand and supply and those are real ? and is not just a normal consequence , a artifact of the markets.
Do you belive that institutions or individuals are also putting orders on those supply and demand levels in a diferent way than some people put on a resistence or support line ?

mtgox exchange (this market is basicaly a playground market, no real banks with huge leverage are playing this) and look.. Sam supply and demand:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mtgox.png Size: 21 KB


This seems very much like TA and for me (in my opinion) i suspect he is making up some lies.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #53
  • Feb 16, 2013 8:15am Feb 16, 2013 8:15am
Supply and demand zones even exist at sports betting exchanges such as betfair ( horse racing, football games etc.)

There is nothing magical about them, it's just zones with significant imbalance of sell and buy orders. Whether it is an institution or large collective of smaller traders who enter at a popular level doesn't really matter, the effect is the same.

I'm not really sure what your problem is Sugar Pink. These levels are just areas to do business at, you still need to know how to trade to make it work.
  • #54
  • Feb 16, 2013 8:34am Feb 16, 2013 8:34am
Quoting SugarPink
I used Mathematica v8.0

here is the code:
Inserted Code
randomWalk[n_] := 
 Accumulate[Prepend[RandomVariate[NormalDistribution[0, 1], n], 0]]

(*generate new random walk*)
size := 6000;
a = randomWalk[size];

(*create canldes*)
candles := {};
step := 25;
For[i = 1, i < size - step, i = i + step,
 raw = a[[i ;; i + step]];
 o = First[raw];
 c = Last[raw];
 h = First[Sort[raw, Greater]];
 l = Last[Sort[raw, Greater]];
 date = DatePlus[{2000, 1, 1}, i];
 candles = Append[candles, {date, {o, h, l, c}}];
 ]
thanks
  • #55
  • Feb 16, 2013 8:42am Feb 16, 2013 8:42am
Quoting SugarPink
I also don't belive that markets are random also. This is not implying that markets are just in and out random orders.

How can you say bitcoin has sam seiden demand and supply and those are real ? and is not just a normal consequence , a artifact of the markets.
Do you belive that institutions or individuals are also putting orders on those supply and demand levels in a diferent way than some people put on a resistence or support line ?

mtgox exchange (this market is basicaly a playground market, no real banks with huge leverage are playing this)...
the supply/demand areas probably occur from supply/demand imbalance. Any market is probably an emergent system, where the behavior of the market doesnt necessarily follow the behavior of the smaller components. So, supply/demand areas are emergent properties of all players involved......

i think all pink is saying is that, if charts which dont have banks trading it, show areas of supply/demand, then why does sam assume its the banks/dealing desks that cause these areas to form.

I think the banks/dealing desks are just using them, not necesarily forming them. so people shouldnt worry about stop hunting, its just an emergent property even if people/dealing desks think they are stop hunting


no clue, but very interesting!! doesnt matter in the end (Unless your curious like me), it is a pattern that can be used.
  • #56
  • Feb 16, 2013 9:55am Feb 16, 2013 9:55am
Quoting SugarPink
I also don't belive that markets are random also. This is not implying that markets are just in and out random orders.

How can you say bitcoin has sam seiden demand and supply and those are real ? and is not just a normal consequence , a artifact of the markets.
Do you belive that institutions or individuals are also putting orders on those supply and demand levels in a diferent way than some people put on a resistence or support line ?

mtgox exchange (this market is basicaly a playground market, no real banks with huge leverage are playing this)...
I'm not sure how I completely overlooked the title of this thread, maybe I was too tired. What can I say, except that it is TA. No secrets there, but it's definitely not what you learn in the textbook and it's done a hell of a job improving my trading returns. I don't really see why you have such a big problem with what he advocates if it works, especially since that information is completely free.
  • #57
  • Feb 16, 2013 10:15am Feb 16, 2013 10:15am
I am going to be honest, I felt cheated when I found out about this, just being like TA.. the evidence keeps amounting. Seems like people here understood from the beginning it was not something to be trusted 100% somehow.

I honestly thought that there were really orders in those levels from banks, and that it was how markets "worked".. I felt dumb that i was just putting my money on this, things that dont exist. only made up in my head. i really felt cheated and lied to. I took his words as true. And always felt that maybe I didnt draw the level right, or some other thing, I always thought that it was my fault.

I am very objective person about markets, I never used any TA in my life, I don't like anything that adds confusion and subjectivity. I would perfer to put trade at random and know my true odds. Instead of being on the illusion.

The only subjective approuch I went trought in market was trying to trade while high on hash and weed. See if the feelings or any intuitions I had in that state could be used. But i failed on that too.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #58
  • Feb 16, 2013 2:38pm Feb 16, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting SugarPink
I am going to be honest, I felt cheated when I found out about this, just being like TA.. the evidence keeps amounting. Seems like people here understood from the beginning it was not something to be trusted 100% somehow.

I honestly thought that there were really orders in those levels from banks, and that it was how markets "worked".. I felt dumb that i was just putting my money on this, things that dont exist. only made up in my head. i really felt cheated and lied to. I took his words as true. And always felt that maybe I didnt draw the level...
I have a feeling you're somewhat new to the markets. What he teaches works, I use it and it's quite reliable. The rationale behind it makes sense, and I subscribe to it, but you should keep in mind that the markets are the markets and nobody can know for certain who or what is behind a move. Sam provides his interpretation of what he sees based on his past experience, and I tend to agree with him based on my own experiences. Really, that doesn't matter as much as long as you know what you're looking for anyway, so don't stress over it. Why you feel cheated is beyond me, I think perhaps you still don't quite know what to look for and you're frustrated with your losses. Or perhaps you expect it to work every time. Don't give up, just practice things in a demo account before you throw any more real money into the markets. His method works but you have to do it by the book. Fresh levels, tight stops, and rational targets.
  • #59
  • Feb 16, 2013 2:46pm Feb 16, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting SugarPink
I am going to be honest, I felt cheated when I found out about this, just being like TA.. the evidence keeps amounting. Seems like people here understood from the beginning it was not something to be trusted 100% somehow.

I honestly thought that there were really orders in those levels from banks, and that it was how markets "worked".. I felt dumb that i was just putting my money on this, things that dont exist. only made up in my head. i really felt cheated and lied to. I took his words as true. And always felt that maybe I didnt draw the level...
I think you should check out mr pips thread here . you can analyze your random walk charts and see if harmonics/confluence works there, just glancing at it it seems to work. supply + demand and harmonic confluence, thats what i am going to master hopefully it will work out, definitely getting better but not there yet (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=402253) . makes more sense to me than indicators.... I spent 2 years or so just dabbling in forex and trying to find a system that made sense, i only recently seriously started trying to learn this year. you may interpret everything differently, like supply/demand zones arent made by banks, but it still shows up on the chart, heck as long as it works right? ...
  • #60
  • Feb 16, 2013 2:50pm Feb 16, 2013 2:50pm
I didn't had any losses. I feel cheated becase I think he lied. there are not banks orders in there, and I was putting my money there, when there isnt there anything, like a stupid. everyone here is putting orders there like there are unfilled bank orders.


Quote
His method works but you have to do it by the book. Fresh levels, tight stops, and rational targets.
The thing is, if you do it by the book then you will see that it doesnt work as much as you think it would. Why do you think no one does it by the book in this forum ? its becase it doesnt work as much.
Fresh levels, tigh stops ? just try to do it by the book yourself, without cheating.. just do it by the book.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
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