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  • #16,661
  • Feb 15, 2013 6:53am Feb 15, 2013 6:53am
New Job, very time demanding. Things are getting into place so I expect to have some time now and I be around more often.

Don't like how price is behaving getting into ny open. Either we start marking down soon or it seems I'll be taken out at be soon... I'll probably bank with a stretch down, if it happens.


Quoting T@rantula
Hey WB, we are all good. Lets see what market would give us. How r u, havent seen u in a while?
dreams do come true.
  • #16,662
  • Feb 15, 2013 8:44am Feb 15, 2013 8:44am
Quoting T@rantula
Those virgin POC's..are they a sort of a "magnetic" levels? Acting a magnet for the price?
Hi T.,


yes, they are. A POC is the area, where the centre of trading took place. Most trade frequency at that day, week or month.


Such levels have a "meaning" and most of the time they are traded and tested in the following days.

If such a POC is not traded again the next day, it is named a virgin POC.


When you do a long time analysis you can see, that most virgin POC's are traded again within a few days.
  • #16,663
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:03pm Feb 15, 2013 1:03pm
Thanks Markus

By the way..This PA may suggest we go bullish again. 3300 hasnt been taken so 3430-50 may be in play. We need to see Monday action before any valid presumptions.
  • #16,664
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:11pm Feb 15, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting T@rantula
Thanks Markus

By the way..This PA may suggest we go bullish again. 3300 hasnt been taken so 3430-50 may be in play. We need to see Monday action before any valid presumptions.


Hi T.,

the 3306 Murrey Math level was hit to the pip, but the clustered POC zone around 3312 suched it back and more. It was annoying to see it jump back above the 334x zone and establishing a base above the 334x to 335x POC cluster zone again.

Right now I have EW wise no good idea what to make out of it. A hit into the 3250-327x area would have been way toooooo sweet, I think. That would have cleared some options we now have to struggle with.
  • #16,665
  • Feb 15, 2013 1:31pm Feb 15, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi T.,

the 3306 Murrey Math level was hit to the pip, but the clustered POC zone around 3312 suched it back and more. It was annoying to see it jump back above the 334x zone and establishing a base above the 334x to 335x POC cluster zone again.

Right now I have EW wise no good idea what to make out of it. A hit into the 3250-327x area would have been way toooooo sweet, I think. That would have cleared some options we now have to struggle with.
Yes it was very annoying. Bearish move was held by 3306 and that 3365 should have held bulls.. Right now I also dont see anything clear except as you say..3250-70 would be much easier to trade. This configuration looks bearish but the bullish action was strong indeed. Look at h4- it looks like BULLISH 3 line strike.

Failure to touch 3284, confuses me. Need to see next breakout clearly.
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  • #16,666
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:41pm Feb 15, 2013 2:41pm
3426 next IMO.

We will get bounces off 3320-3340.. But I think up first then down. Over 3426 and will have to reanalyse.

I wouldn't be surprised if we went below 1.30. Market is not kind and will collect stops before heading up again.
  • #16,667
  • Feb 15, 2013 5:10pm Feb 15, 2013 5:10pm
Hi Friends,

Murrey Math and Market Profile Levels for Sunday/Monday

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Monthly TF:

risk towards, 3672, extended 4160; chance towards 1719 and lower, when 3672 is not broken beforehand


Weekly TF

risk towards 3672, extended 3916; chance towards 2939 and 2695; break of 2695 opens up 2207 at least; break of 3917 will offr 4160



daily TF

chance towards 3428, extended 3550 and 3672; risk towards 3306 and 3184


4h TF

risk towards 3428, extended 3458 and 3489; chance 3306 and 3275, even 3245 is possible



1h TF

risk towards 3397, extended 3428; chance 3306 to 3290; extended 3275



15min TF

risk towards 3374 to 3382; chance 3336 and 3306; extended move 3290



Conclusion:

There might be an opportunity to short Sunday against 3367-3382 with target 3336

Right now it is very hard to guess what Mr. Market will do.


From market Profile perspective a break of 3382 will lead to 3409 (rather weak) and more likely to 3447

A break below 3312 will certainly lead to 3289 to 3263. break of 3263 will reveal 3102 near term



Pivot for Sunday/Monday

Attached Image
  • #16,668
  • Edited 10:41am Feb 16, 2013 6:19am | Edited 10:41am
imo after some analysis... 3266 is the make or break level - this should hold for a move higher.. if it breaks then i believe we will head back to the 1.30 level possibly more...

EDIT: i meant 3266 as per chart... sorry just changed now
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  • #16,669
  • Feb 16, 2013 8:23am Feb 16, 2013 8:23am
Quoting jaylovin
imo after some analysis... 3366 is the make or break level - this should hold for a move higher.. if it breaks then i believe we will head back to the 1.30 level possibly more...
Good Morning

I see your informative chart and I note your view. This leads me to a question. Why might it head back to the 1.30 level or if it moves over 1.3366 or even 1.3400 should it go higher ? What in the chart that you produced predicts or suggests either scenario ?

I have some thoughts to add however I welcome your response or anyone who cares to comment on my questions.

Have a nice weekend everyone.
  • #16,670
  • Feb 16, 2013 8:29am Feb 16, 2013 8:29am
Risk On or Risk Off ? Gold Higher or Gold Lower ? Gold is a CURRENCY not just a Commodity...

http://thedailygold.com/is-gold-beco...isk-off-asset/

Snippet:

Lately we’ve been writing about the negative correlation between the equity market and the precious metals market. This phenomenon has been in place since summer 2011 and has re emerged in the past few months. Since November 23, the S&P 500 is up 8% while the gold shares are down 14%, Silver has lost 11% and Gold 7%. For those who have studied history this should not come as a total surprise. From 1972 to 1977 and November 2000 to July 2002, precious metals and the equity market trended in opposite directions. We’ve postulated that precious metals and the mining shares won’t begin a new bull phase until the cyclical bull market in US equities ends. We don’t expect that to happen immediately but there are some important signals beneath the surface (with the safe-havens) that we should direct our attention to.


First, let’s take a look at the recent activity in a number of markets. From top to bottom we plot Silver, Gold, GDX, TLT and the US Dollar. The first three markets have been in a downtrend since the end of September. Meanwhile, TLT and the buck began their downtrends in the middle of November. It appears that these markets have been tightly connected since the end of November. That is the bigger picture. The short-term term picture shows the US$ potentially breaking out and bonds not breaking to a new low.

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/cB...EHJKlC_asrXr2t

Snippet:

The bottom line is the action in precious metals, commodities and the US$ is signaling a warning for the equity market. The bond market needs to confirm this warning and if it does it could be the catalyst for a sell-off in equities. Keep in mind, the S&P 500 is approaching strong long-term resistance while in a state of euphoric sentiment. If you don’t believe that, check the recent sentiment surveys and ignore those who don’t provide hard data. By the way, public opinion on bonds (from sentimentrader.com), is only 14% bulls! Sounds like we should sell bonds and buy stocks, right?

Meanwhile, the precious metals appear likely to test major support in the coming days and weeks. There will be some more pain but things are setting up perfectly for the next cyclical bull market. Gold is positioning itself contrary to risk-on assets. It has detached from the stock market and that is a good thing. There will likely be a transition period as precious metals find a bottom and the equity market reaches its peak. For now, look to buy precious metals if they reach an extreme oversold condition next week.

CurrencyMan: Follow the MONEYFLOW as it always leads the charts.
  • #16,671
  • Feb 16, 2013 9:24am Feb 16, 2013 9:24am
Hi CM, thanks for the info. indeed the correlation works very well sometimes to indicate money flow. just wondering, how do you put consideration of bonds in the correlation. and would you consider the Yen is isolated from this risk on/off system?

cheers

Quoting CurrencyMan
Risk On or Risk Off ? Gold Higher or Gold Lower ? Gold is a CURRENCY not just a Commodity...

http://thedailygold.com/is-gold-beco...isk-off-asset/

Snippet:

Lately we’ve been writing about the negative correlation between the equity market and the precious metals market. This phenomenon has been in place since summer 2011 and has re emerged in the past few months. Since November 23, the S&P 500 is up 8% while the gold shares are down 14%, Silver has lost 11% and Gold 7%. For those who have studied history this should not...
seeing through
  • #16,672
  • Edited 10:27am Feb 16, 2013 9:49am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Good Morning

I see your informative chart and I note your view. This leads me to a question. Why might it head back to the 1.30 level or if it moves over 1.3366 or even 1.3400 should it go higher ? What in the chart that you produced predicts or suggests either scenario ?

I have some thoughts to add however I welcome your response or anyone who cares to comment on my questions.

Have a nice weekend everyone.

there is much more to it.. but looking from a naked chart its simple to see where the support lies... i dont deny a move to 3426... above and we can continue to look for more upmove but this does not mean to say that it won't retrace down to 3292 before heading higher... we just gotta tread cautiously.. T constantly says REACT not PREDICT.

this support at 3266 imo is a tough one... below that there is 3140 which could stop this but i also tend to wonder if its gonna go lower than current levels why not just keep going to take all the longers out down to 1.27...

but then the next question arises are we in a bear trend? its hard to say whatever - i only seen no more than a couple of people who can predict the bigger picture but they have been wrong too so its not worth talking about imo... but for now i can tell you that this 3266 is support and should not break as per chart. near term resistence is 3426 and can head higher.
  • #16,673
  • Feb 17, 2013 9:35am Feb 17, 2013 9:35am
I think this might go to 3450-70 in next few days. Ill do my analysis 2nite.
  • #16,674
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:03am Feb 17, 2013 10:03am
Quoting T@rantula
I think this might go to 3450-70 in next few days. Ill do my analysis 2nite.
Probably even higher if this 3266 holds
  • #16,675
  • Feb 17, 2013 10:19am Feb 17, 2013 10:19am
Quoting jaylovin
Probably even higher if this 3266 holds
The thing is we have a cluster zone support. Also h1 turned bullish with some stop flushing possibilities. The best scenario would be to sell into rally. Ill show u 2nite.
  • #16,676
  • Edited 11:17am Feb 17, 2013 10:54am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting pipphunter
Hi CM, thanks for the info. indeed the correlation works very well sometimes to indicate money flow. just wondering, how do you put consideration of bonds in the correlation. and would you consider the Yen is isolated from this risk on/off system?

cheers
Good Day

Thanks for the follow up question. The issue with the Yen now is a change of authority and a determination to lower the value of the Yen which helps the exporters. The others being the ECB and the FED do not approve of Japan lowering the value of the Yen for obvious reasons even though the ECB by printing money and the FED by printing money are doing the same thing that they do not want Japan to do. The race to the bottom has started in the Currency War now going on.

We therefore have a new factor now and that is the Yen going down in value and there is where you have the CORRELATION. It has less to do with Risk On or Risk Off and more to do with all three groups doing their form of money printing.

The US Bonds are the real indicator of Risk On or Risk Off and MONEYFLOW.

While I trade I always watch CNBC and see not only the price of the commodities and the markets I also see every few minutes the Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. Try watching this starting on Monday February 18, 2013.

The more the Risk is OFF (An Unknown like a possible WAR or a Terrorist Act) the more likely the money will flow more to the 10 Year US Bonds than the 2 Year US Bonds. The reason for this is that the money is parked for a longer time and therefore the better Yield is on the 10 Year US Bonds versus the 2 Year US Bonds.

We are talking Billion here perhaps Trillions so it does move ALL markets.

The Powers that Be are now attacking Gold so as some of the Hedge Funds sell their Gold holdings the cash that they get converted into US Dollars then are parked probably into the 10 Year and perhaps the 30 Year US Bonds.

Please feel free to ask me any questions that my answers may prompt you to inquire on. Again try logging on to FINVEZ to see charts and Risk On or Risk Off information.

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?rel...66999834093750


Performance Charts http://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gif
http://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gif
  • #16,677
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:06am Feb 17, 2013 11:06am
Quoting jaylovin
there is much more to it.. but looking from a naked chart its simple to see where the support lies... i dont deny a move to 3426... above and we can continue to look for more upmove but this does not mean to say that it won't retrace down to 3292 before heading higher... we just gotta tread cautiously.. T constantly says REACT not PREDICT.

this support at 3266 imo is a tough one... below that there is 3140 which could stop this but i also tend to wonder if its gonna go lower than current levels why not just keep going to take all the longers...

Thanks for your reply. I want to make it clear that Technicals are very important in being a complete forex trader and winner. The information that you and others post is invaluable however it might be for different reasons than know Support and Resistance.

If we had FREE MARKETS the technicals would have more validity however at times knowing where Support and Resistance is allows those with the Power to move markets to cause breakdowns or breakouts.

This happens almost every morning at the opening of Frankie. The Retail Traders usually get it wrong and push EUR/USD up or down from about 8:00 Eastern Time as Japan opens and by 2:00 AM EST as we are 1 hour away from the open of the Europe Equity markets as the Trading Desks come on board they see what the retail traders have done. Then they usually clean house and take their profits while the retail trades lose.

The MONEYFLOW starts with the open of the Equity markets and then other factors are added in like the morning news, new data out of Europe, World events all leading to the same pattern now setting up with the Europe retail tradrs to be dealt with by the North American trading desks as they arrive between 7:00 AM EST and 9:30 EST in the North American time frame. Try watching this over the next few weeks and you will see repeating patterns most of the time.

I hope this information helps see things in a different way.
  • #16,678
  • Feb 17, 2013 11:18am Feb 17, 2013 11:18am
Performance Charts http://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gif http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?euru...67001426437500 http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?usdj...67001426437500


http://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gif http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...67001426437500
  • #16,679
  • Feb 17, 2013 1:16pm Feb 17, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
Performance Charts http://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gif http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?euru...67001426437500 http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?usdj...67001426437500


http://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gif http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...67001426437500...
Can't agree with yours and everyone's perception of traders pushing the markets. Its a predecided game by Market makers. Traders can't move the market not even an inch. If they could prices on the chart would be all over the place.
Although Agree with direction of yours and that should be Up... As far as 1.40 (EU)...and more later.
Unless proven wrong otherwise.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #16,680
  • Feb 17, 2013 1:54pm Feb 17, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting Raza
Can't agree with yours and everyone's perception of traders pushing the markets. Its a predecided game by Market makers. Traders can't move the market not even an inch. If they could prices on the chart would be all over the place.
Although Agree with direction of yours and that should be Up... As far as 1.40 (EU)...and more later.
Unless proven wrong otherwise.
Good Day

I am saying the opposite of what you appear to be saying that I said. We do not have FREE Trading Forex markets.

I also did not say that I saw EUR/USD heading up even UP to 1.3500.

The main reason for my short term call is that I see Equity markets near the TOP and with RISK OFF the MONEYFLOW has to bring EUR/USD down.

I also try NOT to guess on the direction on the market.

I make myself aware of all probabilities and then by following the MONEYFLOW then I get the confirmation that I Need to put my Trade Plan in place.

I look forward to your comments on my reply.
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