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Anyone, any idea what caused this huge spike in USD/NOK today? 1 reply

USD/NOK Anyone else trade this pair!! 1 reply

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USD/NOK

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 17, 2008 9:51am Dec 17, 2008 9:51am
Hello everybody

I just wanted to ask someting about the 16th of December (yesterday).
It seems like the USD/NOK held a steady range between 6.6 - 7.0 for several days before and after. The really strange thing is; Yesterday at about 20:30 CET, the pair went crazy and hit 10 NOK per USD!! Then after maybe 10 minutes the pair returned to the normal levels.

I haven't been into forex that long, so this seems really crazy for me. The potential win for that trade would be a massive 6000 pips, right?

So my question is, why the hell did the pair act this way? It almost seems fishy to me.

Cheers
  • #2
  • Dec 17, 2008 9:59am Dec 17, 2008 9:59am
Might check your broker feed. Here's my chart from 16 dec;
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #3
  • Dec 17, 2008 10:21am Dec 17, 2008 10:21am
thats most probably because the norges bank met today and lowered its interest rate by 1.75% or so...
  • #4
  • Dec 17, 2008 10:23am Dec 17, 2008 10:23am
Quoting pippero
thats most probably because the norges bank met today and lowered its interest rate by 1.75% or so...
They did but that was 3 hours ago. That spike is just an error from his chart feeder, nothing more.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #5
  • Dec 17, 2008 10:31am Dec 17, 2008 10:31am
could indeed be -- i have an eur/nok position and it is spectacularly illiquid these days
  • #6
  • Dec 18, 2008 10:11am Dec 18, 2008 10:11am
Thanks for the answer.
The broker is ac-markets, whom I though would keep a good feed, since they are pretty big.

I'm thinking about trading in USD/SEK, since I am Swedish and have a good sence of value of that pair. The thing is; The spreads are mostly aweful, at about 50 pips or so. Why the hell does the retail brokers keep that high spread. The ECN spread for that pair can't be that high, right?

Makes me wanna start a retail broker up here, with sensible spreads on the NOK, SEK, DDK.
  • #7
  • Dec 18, 2008 10:43am Dec 18, 2008 10:43am
Quoting Fesken
Thanks for the answer.
The broker is ac-markets, whom I though would keep a good feed, since they are pretty big.

I'm thinking about trading in USD/SEK, since I am Swedish and have a good sence of value of that pair. The thing is; The spreads are mostly aweful, at about 50 pips or so. Why the hell does the retail brokers keep that high spread. The ECN spread for that pair can't be that high, right?

Makes me wanna start a retail broker up here, with sensible spreads on the NOK, SEK, DDK.
I'd calculate the pip value of those pairs along with daily range. You most consider that 1 pip is wort 1.46$ on usd/nok compared to 10$ on cable.

Taking an daily average over 20 periods we have the following calculations;

Usd/nok daily range value (100k units/1 standard lot) over 20 days average (1824 pips) is worth 2546$.

Gbp/usd daily range (100k units/1 standard lot) over 20 days average (333 pips) is worth 3000$

I've consider spreads (80 pips on usd/nok and 3 pips on cable) into the calculations as well. Cable have an 15% more value on its range than usd/nok.

So, if you trade usd/nok you'd pay 123$ in spreads while you'd pay 30$ on cable.

I trade NOK myself (not for any patriotic reasons, but seem to have a "gut feeling" when it comes to rate-announcements following it for years).
Measure twice, cut once
  • #8
  • Dec 18, 2008 11:02am Dec 18, 2008 11:02am
wait what?

I think I've misunderstood something about spreads.

Spreads is the x-amounts of pips away from the actual price that a proker can give you, since that's one of the ways he is making money, by taking spreads, right?

I never got the "value" thing with the odd currencies up here. That must be with a pip spread of ... alot included, so the final profit you make in one trade is less in USD/NOK than in Cable.

If the spreads would go down in some kind of way to lets say 5 pips for the USD/NOK, then that pair would be worth around 10 bucks aswell?
  • #9
  • Dec 18, 2008 5:54pm Dec 18, 2008 5:54pm
Quoting Fesken
wait what?

I think I've misunderstood something about spreads.

Spreads is the x-amounts of pips away from the actual price that a proker can give you, since that's one of the ways he is making money, by taking spreads, right?

I never got the "value" thing with the odd currencies up here. That must be with a pip spread of ... alot included, so the final profit you make in one trade is less in USD/NOK than in Cable.

If the spreads would go down in some kind of way to lets say 5 pips for the USD/NOK, then that pair would be worth around 10...
Spread is what you pay for opening any position with your dealer.

The formula for calculating a pip is fairly easy;

(one pip, either 0.01 {like usd/jpy or 0.0001 {like usd/nok} depending on which pair/exchange rate) x ( amount whereas 100k is the "standard")

So for calculating a pip value on usd/nok;

0.0001 (1 pip) / 6.8446 (usd/nok rate right now) x 100.000$ (amount you bought) = 1.46$ is the value of 1 pip movement on usd/nok.

I think it's important to understand the basic calculation/valuation behind a transaction before you move on.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #10
  • Jul 19, 2011 2:09pm Jul 19, 2011 2:09pm
where is everyone?
  • #11
  • Feb 14, 2013 11:18am Feb 14, 2013 11:18am
USD/NOK just shot up 350 pips in 5 minutes, and I can't find anything in the US or Norwegian news as to why. Nothing even remotely that spectacular in Cable or Fiber.
  • #12
  • Feb 15, 2013 11:16am Feb 15, 2013 11:16am
Quoting Nordic
USD/NOK just shot up 350 pips in 5 minutes, and I can't find anything in the US or Norwegian news as to why. Nothing even remotely that spectacular in Cable or Fiber.

http://www.dn.no/forsiden/borsMarked/article2563174.ece
  • #13
  • Sep 29, 2014 2:24pm Sep 29, 2014 2:24pm
Anyone watching or trading this highly illiquid pair? It seems to me it should be breaking all-time highs in the next few months, especially due to strength of the dollar.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #14
  • May 19, 2015 11:56pm May 19, 2015 11:56pm
Not so illiquid anymore. This pair offered some nice opportunities for closing divergence with OIL from time to time. Currently not so attractive but still worth observing.
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  • #15
  • May 6, 2016 1:15pm May 6, 2016 1:15pm
Shamelessly chasing the trend on this pair too About 300 pips in profit.
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  • #16
  • Oct 29, 2019 2:10am Oct 29, 2019 2:10am
#USDSEK / Weekly, Daily & H4
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  • #17
  • Oct 29, 2019 9:06am Oct 29, 2019 9:06am
Usd nok hit a really Important level today. It's downhill from now. Short this above 9.25 and sit until January, I guarantee a nice Christmas bonus
  • #18
  • Oct 29, 2019 9:32am Oct 29, 2019 9:32am
Quoting swf
Usd nok hit a really Important level today. It's downhill from now. Short this above 9.25 and sit until January, I guarantee a nice Christmas bonus
Hello; what’s the trading spreads of this exotic trading pair? I never tried!
  • #19
  • Oct 29, 2019 9:41am Oct 29, 2019 9:41am
Quoting NeilWagner
{quote} Hello; what’s the trading spreads of this exotic trading pair? I never tried!
In normal trading hours most brokers have a very reasonable spread these days (10 years ago was a different matter)
however during illiquid times the spread can become dangerously high so its best to keep leverage to a reasonable level to avoid being stop spiked out due to spread change
  • #20
  • Oct 29, 2019 12:55pm Oct 29, 2019 12:55pm
Quoting swf
Usd nok hit a really Important level today. It's downhill from now. Short this above 9.25 and sit until January, I guarantee a nice Christmas bonus
I cannot stress this enough that, this is one of the best risk reward trades In the market right now. Short with comfort
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