We got a break of the Fib 123.6 which I use as an indication that the market is on the move again so resume trading. Short signal just after the 9am news. TP1, 2 & 3 closed, total 50 pips. (TP3 closed after 3rd bounce off round number).
Nice work,
when it broke the 123.6 did you go long ? as i see there was well over 1 pip confirmation above the 123.6 level , my temtation would have been to go long, obviously i would have gotten out quick for a loss and reversed to short at 9.05 as you did.
Cheers anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Morning Strada, Just sitting doing some work on this thing this morning,time zones was 7 HK, which is 8 Japan and 9 in Australia so my thoughts arestart of Asian session should be good. I will talk UK time to make it easier, I placed a Fibbetween low at 22.57Uk and high 23.15UK in accordance with bollies fib set up(for want of a better term). Price breaks -23.6 around time 0006 we take say a total of17 or 18 pips all good so far. Problem comes after this, My thoughts are the fibs I placedwill now be redundant because the long move is over, so I sit on my hands andwait for the bollies to give another fibs set up. This set up never comes and Imiss the beautiful south move which would have yielded well over 80pips In this example Bago with no extra confirmation ruled.
Any thoughts or suggestions? I can assure you I will be watching EJ very closely nextweek at start of Asian session.
Cheers Anthm
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Problem comes after this, My thoughts are the fibs I placedwill now be redundant because the long move is over, so I sit on my hands andwait for the bollies to give another fibs set up. This set up never comes and Imiss the beautiful south move which would have yielded well over 80pips In this example Bago with no extra confirmation ruled.
[font=Calibri][size=3]Any...
Ignored
Yes, I have an excellent suggestion for you.
Trade bago normally until there is congestion.
The reason for looking at using the the bollis and fibs is solely to help avoid losing trades during times of narrow range. So we carry on as normal until the congestion/consolidation sets in which is indicated by the bollis after a strong move up or down. Once in a congestion area like your example, once there is a touch or break of 123.6 or -23.6 then we take that as meaning the market is looking for a breakout so we start trading normally again. At this stage I consider removing the fibs form the chart.
The problem I see and looking closely at it is sometimes the initial break of 123.6/-23.6 may well continue in that direction and we have missed the move as there would likely be a bago signal in the middle of the range which we would have ignored as at that time we would be thinking we're still rangebound.
But I would say definitely not to restrict trading solely to breakouts of congestion, hope that helps.
strada.
[color=royalblue]The reason for looking at using the the bollis and fibs is solely to help avoid losing trades during times of narrow range. So we carry on as normal until the congestion/consolidation sets in which is indicated by the bollis after a strong move up or down. Once in a congestion area like your example, once there is a touch...
Ignored
Totally understood Strada,
Thanks and I am work in progress.
Identifying Congestion has always been costly for me, I need to work on identifying congestion
Cheers Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Very Nice,
Please explain what you mean by MPV and NPV , what purpose does it serve?
Thanks for the chart post Strada, I got called out unexpectedly to BKK ,
I paper traded the asian morning session EJ to break even after 7 trades.
Encouraging result as it was my first day behind the platform for a while and of course
there was the odd finger troube errors.
Cheers
Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Very Nice,
Please explain what you mean by MPV and NPV , what purpose does it serve?
Anthm
Ignored
Hi Anthm, MPV is the maximum pips profit that would have been available in the trade (after taking into account the 1 pip buffer and spread of 1.6) and NPV is the worst situation the trade got into in terms of negative pips and this includes the 1 pip buffer and spread. Reason is just to show what was available. As I've recently switched to EJ I'll be keeping some record of these figures as well as some other stuff in case I feel the strategy needs tweaking for the TP's and SL etc..
Any time in BKK or in/out?
strada.
Ok understood thanks,
I see you took +12 for TP2 twice was that strategic or were you aiming for more? +14?
I was using SL +12 today it seeemed to me +10 may not be enough, any thoughts?
BKK overnight, here now traffic crazy.
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Oh a couple of times this morning I cut myself short by closing out at BE after it touching +4 pips, I see you closed out for BE after it hit +5.6 for you today, are you using a limit for that?
Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Ok understood thanks,
I see you took +12 for TP2 twice was that strategic or were you aiming for more? +14?
I was using SL +12 today it seeemed to me +10 may not be enough, any thoughts?
BKK overnight, here now traffic crazy.
Ignored
Strategy at present is TP1 +7; TP2 +12 but keeping an eye on this. Obviously if price is moving quickly and more available, I'll take it and if TP1 gets to +10 or more I'll close both TP1&2.
I'm working on SL 10 +spread so 11.6-12.00. But again keeping an eye on it and trying not to let trades get that deep in the hole, difficult I know.
Closing at BE if trade gets to around +4/5, if it gets to +6 and dithers a bit I'll take it.
strada.
Morning, don't get many days like this, one trade and done for the day. Once price started its run just below the number it didn't show a negative pip all the way down. Obviously there was more to be had in the move but this was more than enough for me and above my normal quota for the day.
strada.
Cheers Anthm. It was an easy decision to make on that trade, it had a lot going for it. It was just after 7am, mainland Europe in full swing, London getting into action, price had been hovering around and mainly above the number for hours so only the usual 3 things will happen, it will either continue sideways (unlikely immediately after 7am), it will go up (but most likely not before a dive below the number to pick up all the cheap stops) or a deeper move move below the number. There was a token attempt at breaking the previous high (just after 7am which formed a long bago signal but with no improvement wasn't taken) then price drifted down towards the number and price was moving quite frenetically at this stage, suggesting something in the air. The bar immediately after the signal bar formed a high which I would have used for exit if price had bounced off the number and exceeded it so quite a cheap SL. So all in all a good setup with a decent chance of TP1 at least if it was just going to be stop-hunting. It turned out better than that and when you see price move like that and you're initially looking out for TP1 @ +7, but price keeps going quite quickly you then think if it gets to +11/12 then close TP1&2, and then price just kept going all the way to the bottom of that bar without reversing your only decision then is whether to close 1&2 and let 3 run or close the lot and sit back for the rest of the day. I probably took about a nanosecond on that decision.
strada.
This is a good example of how the use of bolli's to identify and calculate fibs can help to avoid losing trade entries during congestion periods.
It's quite simple. In this example, this was the sequence of events:
after the good run, price reversed and touches/breaks the opposite outer (top) bolli,
then reverses again to touch/break the lower bolli,
and then reverses yet again over the middle bolli.
We use the Hi/Lo of this sequence to draw the fibs. This may sometimes include the Low of the previous big move but as in this case price has moved quite a bit away from that area so isn't really in the congestion zone. Ie, the area between the Low of the previous move and the subsequent Low is not part of the congestion, so it is best to avoid using it for the fibs, it would distort the outcome.
We take that as an indication we're in congestion and stop trading. In this case the chart gave us a pretty big clue we were in congestion before the sequence ended by looking at the price action.
We then wait for a break of the 123.6 or -23.6 to indicate there's a possible new move afoot and we resume trading.
As you can see, most of the trades during the congestion period didn't produce any meaningful profit and would almost certainly have resulted in mostly losses. The last SHORT trade of the sequence was the move that broke the -23.6. We weren't to know that, or that it would be profitable, so would not have entered the trade which means we missed a good trade. We have to weigh that up against the savings of not entering the other losing trades. On this occasion, it is very much to our advantage.
However the other side of the coin is that this short trade may have been the actual breakout move and if it had continued downwards we'd be sitting on our hands spectating.
Another point worth mentioning is that sometimes the range of congestion may allow trading if it's wide enough or if the Hi/Lo of the range is far enough away from a bago signal that allows profit to be secured it may be worth considering. (with great caution of course)
Morning Strada, Yes I have had a good read of all of thisand it is all making sense to me. I have been practicing this technique of watching thebollies on a separate screen as I trade Bago.
I do see that sometimes the bollie does create the patternof hitting the outer hitting the opposite outer then crossing the middle bandwhich generally signifies congestion. If in a narrow band should we take this as definitecongestion and definitely stop trading (I personally would say yes if it’s a narrowband) All good Strada and I understand and see how you havecreated a perfect tool to add to the Bago rules set.
Thank you Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Morning Strada
I will take my +20 for the day and be happy.
Here is how I saw it.
I will say that when the congestion was on my plan was to take TP3 only if there was a break of the 123.6 to the downside (ie continuation type thing)
And I loosly had a plan to take TP1 and TP3 only if there was a break of the -23.6 to the upside. (once again continuation type thing, the theory being i would have missed the first bit of the move)
Fortunatly no need for this as got the clear signal at 8.08 am
Interested on your thoughts , I take it your still at it.
Cheers
Anthm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
