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Higher low, lower high system

  • #5,941
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:20am Feb 12, 2013 5:20am
Quoting Vantage
I have said several times here and in blog that when LO has a relatively quick 60-70 odd pip move that we do not look to re-enter, see the x. We have been burnt on those re-entry trades. There's a high risk that tight stops will get hit. We'd rather wait for US session.

See blog post critically assess losing trades done 11 Feb.
Forgot to say that we wouldn't be looking to buy either unless 1hr flow flipped properly. The avoid weak CT pre/early US session 1hr candle posts are the same thing from a different angle.
  • #5,942
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:04am Feb 12, 2013 9:04am
Quoting Vantage
When we do a trade we open the close trade box, she had a finger slip and we are out! No worries but after the stick I took yesterday and today on my ej early exit call I can get a little bit of pay back. EJ please go up please.
Quoting Vantage
Mrs V had internet connection problems and missed this GU trade. Great set up on 1hr with engulfing close (i.e. close below last 2 candle closes) right on lows of range. 15 min lh little/no lower wick in trend.
Did buy ej 126.08 will post those charts later.
Do you have an indicator who shows this things or you just see this things? Do you trade often this setup? What it is the results?
Where you put SL and TP in this case?
  • #5,943
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:03am Feb 12, 2013 10:03am
Quoting Flaviu1981
Do you have an indicator who shows this things or you just see this things? Do you trade often this setup? What it is the results?
Where you put SL and TP in this case?
If we see a set up we like we will take these trades every day. We "see" them because we're looking. If we have done our assessment in the morning and it looks like flow will reverse we're kind of expecting it. Or shall I say when it happens it certainly isn't a surprise.

Arrow down left. The possibility of 1hr flipping over on 11th to give a lower high sell was discussed as a possible set up. So when we see that kind of shooting star, rejecting move up and closing at the bottom of range we'll take it. Little/no lower wick on 1hr. Depending on whether entry is taken from 15 min or 1hr stop would be above the high. Both the W pivots would be good targets.

Arrow down right. Attempt to go up stalls with a doji. Then 1hr closes negative, little/no lower wick at low of range. In trend this is a picture perfect set up. Literally cannot ask for more.

The only indi we have is the 3 bar reversal which signals when the candle close is higher/lower than the prev 2 candle closes. For sells 1 of prev 2 candles must be green positive close. For buys 1 of the 2 prev candles must be negative close. So its doing a good job of capturing change in flow and resumption of trend. Its based on pa only not rsi/tdi etc etc.
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  • #5,944
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:22am Feb 12, 2013 10:22am
Recap 12 Feb


I'm most likely going to be tied up tomorrow early so I'll do the recap now.

EUR - View was bias down but we can bounce from 1.3360 support level. We did bounce up from 1.3360.

GU - View was bias down but with potential to bounce up from the support levels. It went down at London open as per bias. We then had a 6 hour higher low form and move up signaled with 1hr engulfing positive close. The low was the 1.5577 identified support level, see previous D charts.

EJ - Bias was up. We went up after London open and had a big drop in US session.

The arrows up/down on these 1hr charts are based on the engulfing closes and are on the candle following the 'signal' candle.
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  • #5,945
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:54pm Feb 12, 2013 10:54pm
Quoting Vantage
If we see a set up we like we will take these trades every day. We "see" them because we're looking. If we have done our assessment in the morning and it looks like flow will reverse we're kind of expecting it. Or shall I say when it happens it certainly isn't a surprise.
Asian session so much to early for us. Just another example (been swopping pm's with someone on the close at end of range). After Y's wide range PA 126.92 to 125 the move up to 126 could have gone either way. This arrow down confirms where flow is a LH, negative engulfing close (below last 2 candle closes) right at the edge of immediate range.
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  • #5,946
  • Feb 12, 2013 11:32pm Feb 12, 2013 11:32pm
13 Feb

EUR - D positive close off the support level 1.3375/W M2. We stopped at the 1.3465 resistance level (highs from Feb '12)/W pivot. The 4hr lower high lower low flow broken. The 1hr showed divergence on move up to yesterdays high, it is at a tipping point and could go either way. A lower high after divergence at the resistance/W pivot a valid sell. Bias up with potential to sell.

GU - D closed a big doji off the 1.5575 support level, divergence showing. We have RSI below 50 still but crossed up, still below 8lwma. With 1hr flow higher high higher low, bias up.

EJ - The positive close on D 11th could not follow through higher. We are still below D RSI 50 level and below 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr now on lower high flow. Bias down.
  • #5,947
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:40am Feb 13, 2013 4:40am
Hello Van

Please have a look on chart.is this setup valid setup? and what about wick on 8lwma crossing candle?should take entry based on this type of candle has wick like this?

frank
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  • #5,948
  • Edited 6:42am Feb 13, 2013 4:50am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting frank.david
Hello Van

Please have a look on chart.is this setup valid setup? and what about wick on 8lwma crossing candle?should take entry based on this type of candle has wick like this?

frank
Hi frank

I had bias down but its a 4 x 1hr reversal. A 25 pip wick, that would make me pause. But its EJ and 25 pips at the moment for this guy is nothing. As usual though if in doubt leave. If you had left the positive close on the 1hr candle that follows seems to confirm move up.
  • #5,949
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:27am Feb 13, 2013 6:27am
Hi Vantange

GU has formed a H4 engulfing close, yet ends with a H1 hammer. With divergence at H4, so shall we be careful of continue selling into this drop?

kelvin
  • #5,950
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:41am Feb 13, 2013 6:41am
Quoting kelvintc
Hi Vantange

GU has formed a H4 engulfing close, yet ends with a H1 hammer. With divergence at H4, so shall we be careful of continue selling into this drop?

kelvin
At this stage its 1 x 1hr hammer and if you believe in the multiple candle reversal then there should be some form of further push down to get a 1hr higher low/double bottom. It would be unusual to have 160 pip move down and for it to go straight back up (news event notwithstanding). If you were up big pips today and had a nice 15 min close (not overly large candle) I'd carry on selling expecting it to be a hit and run, small stop, quick to BE trade.

If this was my first trade of the day wouldn't touch a sell.
  • #5,951
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:57am Feb 13, 2013 6:57am
Quoting Vantage
At this stage its 1 x 1hr hammer and if you believe in the multiple candle reversal then there should be some form of further push down to get a 1hr higher low/double bottom. It would be unusual to have 160 pip move down and for it to go straight back up (news event notwithstanding). If you were up big pips today and had a nice 15 min close (not overly large candle) I'd carry on selling expecting it to be a hit and run, small stop, quick to BE trade.

If this was my first trade of the day wouldn't touch a sell.
The move up stalled at Y's low/M1 area and an attempt lower from there would not be out of the question.
  • #5,952
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:32am Feb 13, 2013 7:32am
The up arrow on the 1hr shows that there has been a 3 bar reversal alert (last positive close higher than 2 prev candle closes) but theres no change in flow yet. So having pushed up to Y's low 1hr closing a doji not beyond the realm of possibility that we'll have another attempt down.

15 min 3 bar reversal has alerted for move down (negative close below the prev 2 candle closes). Not in this one, if I was I'd be having stop very close to if not already at BE.
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  • #5,953
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:22pm Feb 13, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting Vantage
The up arrow on the 1hr shows that there has been a 3 bar reversal alert (last positive close higher than 2 prev candle closes) but theres no change in flow yet. So having pushed up to Y's low 1hr closing a doji not beyond the realm of possibility that we'll have another attempt down.

15 min 3 bar reversal has alerted for move down (negative close below the prev 2 candle closes). Not in this one, if I was I'd be having stop very close to if not already at BE.
Hi Vantage

Great insight. Thanks for sharing. It proved to be profitable, yet I'm too chicken to get in this trade. (Too many bad experience in the past)
  • #5,954
  • Feb 14, 2013 1:03am Feb 14, 2013 1:03am
Quoting kelvintc
Hi Vantage

Great insight. Thanks for sharing. It proved to be profitable, yet I'm too chicken to get in this trade. (Too many bad experience in the past)
Nothing wrong with letting that set up pass by.

Mrs V and I had to renew our drivers licenses today. The queues are horrendus and after 3-4 days of pitching up to find they are closed due to strike action we were there at 6am local time. They open at 8. Filled in forms, eye test, finger prints, pay and out in 12 mins. Exited to see 100+ people in the now long line. You are going to queue for 2 hrs we just decided to get in and out early.

Anyway normal service blog recap/days view will resume tomorrow.
  • #5,955
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:04am Feb 14, 2013 10:04am
Short of time for posting today.

Trade 1 today.
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  • #5,956
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:05am Feb 14, 2013 10:05am
Trade 2.
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  • #5,957
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:06am Feb 14, 2013 10:06am
Trade 3.
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  • #5,958
  • Feb 14, 2013 11:09pm Feb 14, 2013 11:09pm
Recap 14 Feb

EUR - A D lower high shooting star set up a move lower. Asian session moved down strongly and this continued into London morning session.

GU - An engulfing negative close had very little follow through with the 1.55 support level/W M3 providing support.

EJ - A D doji hinted at failure again to go higher after the positive close on 11th. A 1hr shooting star then a 3 bar reversal set up the move of the day.
  • #5,959
  • Feb 14, 2013 11:19pm Feb 14, 2013 11:19pm
15 Feb

EUR - D closed with a lower wick, we are below 50 on RSI but there is divergence. 4hr is on a lower high lower low at the moment, RSI below 50. Bias down.

GU - Very little follow through down after the 13th close, below 50 RSI but showing divergence. 4hr flow lower high lower low and also showing RSI divergence. RSI crossed up giving chance for scalp buys. Having said that bias down until D signals otherwise i.e. the 4hr viewed at the moment as a counter trend scalp opportunity.

EJ - These charts looking the cleanest of the 3. There are the Apr '11 highs that can act as support however bias down.
  • #5,960
  • Feb 14, 2013 11:22pm Feb 14, 2013 11:22pm
Looks like Mrs V has woken up a little under the weather. Most prob she'll take a break from pressing the buttons.
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