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Spider's Den

  • #16,621
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:25am Feb 12, 2013 9:25am
Quoting CurrencyMan
I want to discuss the events between now and 12:00 Noon EST as it might affect EUR USD.


Have a great trading day.
Thanks,

TBH I dont watch any of those, I have only 2 indicators, MACD and FIB ( which is manually drawn). I also plot my SR levels manually. I have abandoned indicators long time ago ( except MAs from time to time).

I never trade based on fundies but is always nice to see and read how it can confluence with different pairs. Nice addition to the thread CM
  • #16,622
  • Feb 12, 2013 6:51pm Feb 12, 2013 6:51pm
Quick information:

Tomorrow I will be holding a COMPLETELY FREE a NON COMMERCIAL webinar for Serbo-Croatian speakers ( EX YU). You can sign up for webinar here:

http://www.forextrade.rs/edukacija/webinari/

Soon I will start COMPLETELY FREE INTERNATIONAL webinars for English speakers.
  • #16,623
  • Feb 12, 2013 6:54pm Feb 12, 2013 6:54pm
nice to hear!
just do it
  • #16,624
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:19am Feb 13, 2013 3:19am
Bullish divergence trendline break on H1 chart. Longer trendline is intraweek trendline, shorter trendline depicts intrday trendline. 3496 3513 should be next. 3530 should Intraday target based on fibs + ATR.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 107 KB


You can also read the analysis on my Forex Blog.
  • #16,625
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:45am Feb 13, 2013 4:45am
Hi T@, just to say I love your thread, it's good analysis and insprational. On the EU, many of us share same views
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 113 KB
seeing through
  • #16,626
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:50am Feb 13, 2013 4:50am
Quoting pipphunter
Hi T@, just to say I love your thread, it's good analysis and insprational. On the EU, many of us share same views
Thanks, feel free to post and analyse
  • #16,627
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:53am Feb 13, 2013 5:53am
MONEY FLOW and CORRELATION

A discussion on Technicals and Fundamentals would be more fruitful if the discussion included Profit and Loss.

What amount of Capital that you trade with will affect your results.

Can you achieve a profit of 5% a month for 3 months in a row ?

Start with a $50,000 US Funds demo account and a proper Risk Management STRATEGY using MONEY FLOW and CORRELATION and a Good Trade Plan NEVER risking more than 5% of your Capital on any one Trade Plan.

Winning over 60% of all your FX Trades will allow you an ROI of 5% a month.

That was the STATEGY that I used and developed.

The reason that I make these statements is because over 90% of all retail Forex Traders arrive in this losing category.

When you understand why then you have a chance to go into the 10% TOP of the Class.

Let me talk about Fundamentals in a way that is not commonly used.

MONEY FLOW is a MAJOR FUNDAMENTAL.

The Charts follow the MONEYFLOW as the values in the Asset Classes change by the second.

CORRELATION assists in understanding the direction of the MONEY FLOW.


I would welcome feedback on my post.


If you are now earning profits each and ever month change nothing and keep on going forward with the FX trading that fits your FX trading style.
  • #16,628
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:54am Feb 13, 2013 5:54am
Quoting T@rantula
Bullish divergence trendline break on H1 chart. Longer trendline is intraweek trendline, shorter trendline depicts intrday trendline. 3496 3513 should be next. 3530 should Intraday target based on fibs + ATR.

Attachment
1st target has been hit, break of 96 aims for 3515.
  • #16,629
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:09am Feb 13, 2013 6:09am
Quoting CurrencyMan
MONEY FLOW and CORRELATION

A discussion on Technicals and Fundamentals would be more fruitful if the discussion included Profit and Loss.

What amount of Capital that you trade with will affect your results.

Can you achieve a profit of 5% a month for 3 months in a row ?

Start with a $50,000 US Funds demo account and a proper Risk Management STRATEGY using MONEY FLOW and CORRELATION and a Good Trade Plan NEVER risking more than 5% of your Capital on any one Trade Plan.

Winning over 60% of all your FX Trades will allow you...
Hey CM,

Well said. My aim is 4-10 % ROI per month and im able to pull it out more then 8 months in a row. I can backup all my trades with statements but they are not for public exposure. App. W/L ratio is 75-25 with +/-5 oscillations. My risk management is strict. For every 10000, maximum lot size is 0.3-0.5 per entry rarely having 1+ lot floating.

Still what I have learned from one of pioneer traders ( who actually developed Harmonic patterns and established 88.6 fib) is when u pass that 5 % per month ROI you are in a RISK zone. So my MM is very strict and low risk. Applying good MM with a good strategy is a way to success in this business. Unfortunately 95 % of retail traders fail.

I can agree with u on fundies. Forex is not centralized market and ofcourse exchange rates are affected by assets- commodities, stocks, options and futures. Correlation normally exists and that is a good thing contrary to pegging. Thou there is a lot knowledge in TA aka Technical Study and that is my favourite way of trading FX market and definitely my specialization point.

There are many styles of trading- basket trading, carry trades,basis trading and arbitrage which is forbidden.
  • #16,630
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:37am Feb 13, 2013 6:37am
3515 second target has been hit.
  • #16,631
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:47am Feb 13, 2013 7:47am
Bearish divergence popped out at last swing high. Watch 3465-55 for reaction.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: div.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #16,632
  • Feb 13, 2013 8:46am Feb 13, 2013 8:46am
65 again good for some 20 pips. Swings are respected. Bulls need to close above 3515 mentioned earlier to gain advantage of 3530. That also means hourly close above 3485 is needed.

Break of 3450 targets 3420. So far dips are being bought.
  • #16,633
  • Feb 13, 2013 11:46am Feb 13, 2013 11:46am
Quoting CurrencyMan
MONEY FLOW and CORRELATION

A discussion on Technicals and Fundamentals would be more fruitful if the discussion included Profit and Loss.

What amount of Capital that you trade with will affect your results.

Can you achieve a profit of 5% a month for 3 months in a row ?

Start with a $50,000 US Funds demo account and a proper Risk Management STRATEGY using MONEY FLOW and CORRELATION and a Good Trade Plan NEVER risking more than 5% of your Capital on any one Trade Plan.

Winning over 60% of all your FX Trades will allow you an...

Hi T@, CM:



I can’t agree more on your risk/money management statements.It's the vital factor divide profitable traders from losers. When I look deeper, the risk management is not just simple mathematic. It links down to the trader’s ability to implement the tradingplan, and those ability is how a trader manage the conscious objectivity to overcome subconscious human nature. Practice is the only way to get there, I believe.

I use money flow, and understanding it as risk on/ risk off. Reading charts of USD index and SP500 to determent the overall market sentiment,instead of reading news. If the USD index in downtrend and SP500 in uptrend,the market sentiment should be risk on, vice versa. Then the main strategy willbe finding the long opportunity from the strongest pair (usually choose from EU, AU and GU)
seeing through
  • #16,634
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:01pm Feb 13, 2013 2:01pm
as can be seen currently hidden divergence is formed.Tested already 3 times fibo 50%.Entry would be the price of 1.3475.Target 1,3523/1,3575

http://shrani.si/f/44/hM/2ZPXkMUo/1.png
  • #16,635
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:36pm Feb 13, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting forex guru
as can be seen currently hidden divergence is formed.Tested already 3 times fibo 50%.Entry would be the price of 1.3475.Target 1,3523/1,3575

http://shrani.si/f/44/hM/2ZPXkMUo/1.png
Bullish configuration for intraday slowly fades. Only if Asia breaks the level else we might see some correction. But that is how divergence is traded. Trendline break or MACD cross. None of the above was triggered so the trade is currently invalidated.
  • #16,636
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:58pm Feb 13, 2013 4:58pm
Market profile perspective


above current price we have a whole battery of POC resistance @

3447
3449
3452
3454
3456


Vah is 3479
VaL is 3437


Strategy:

Long:

break of 3447 may result in 3479
break of 3479 may result in 3532, 3539; extended move to 3564 possible


Short

break of 3437 may result in 3408
break of 3408 may result in 3384 with speed bump @ 3397
break of 3384 will target 3362
  • #16,637
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:50pm Feb 13, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting infinitus
Market profile perspective


above current price we have a whole battery of POC resistance @

3447
3449
3452
3454
3456


Vah is 3479
VaL is 3437


Strategy:

Long:

break of 3447 may result in 3479
break of 3479 may result in 3532, 3539; extended move to 3564 possible


Short

break of 3437 may result in 3408
break of 3408 may result in 3384 with speed bump @ 3397
break of 3384 will target 3362
Thanks for the numbers mate!
  • #16,638
  • Edited 8:06pm Feb 13, 2013 7:56pm | Edited 8:06pm
EARLY BIRD LEVEL ANALYSIS EURUSD 14th FEB 2013.

EURUSD opened below DPP and that weakens pair's bullish outlook. Asia and early London give us a potential range play 3418-3470. 3410 is very important level and losing 3410 gives us 3390 3370 and 3350. Only below 3390 we can trade a breakout to 3370 and potentially 3350. If price goes above 3475 we will have 3496 3515 and daily ATR around 3535. If bullish scenario is valid Target price for the bullish move is 3588 intraweek. First short scalp could be around 3470 whereas 1st long scalp at between 3418-3425.
  • #16,639
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:10am Feb 14, 2013 12:10am
Quoting T@rantula
EARLY BIRD LEVEL ANALYSIS EURUSD 14th FEB 2013.

EURUSD opened below DPP and that weakens pair's bullish outlook. Asia and early London give us a potential range play 3418-3470. 3410 is very important level and losing 3410 gives us 3390 3370 and 3350. Only below 3390 we can trade a breakout to 3370 and potentially 3350. If price goes above 3475 we will have 3496 3515 and daily ATR around 3535. If bullish scenario is valid Target price for the bullish move is 3588 intraweek. First short scalp could be around 3470 whereas 1st long scalp at between...
where is 333 in your view brother
  • #16,640
  • Feb 14, 2013 2:01am Feb 14, 2013 2:01am
1.335x area quite strong
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