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Philax Mann

  • #101
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:21pm Feb 12, 2013 8:21pm
I think people really believe the world is a small place if one persons winning system will change the markets should it get out. Please, the markets are bigger than you and I and any system you can come up with. Many people have winning systems, it doesn't upset everything and make them soon not work once they tell someone.

Philax, I guess if you wanted to test it, you can teach cough cough....me, your system and we will soon see if another person either grasps it, changes it or doesn't get it.

jt
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #102
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:35pm Feb 12, 2013 8:35pm
Well the world is a small place and the Forex market for retailers is even smaller .. about 100,000 traders world wide. 100,000 little fish waiting to be netted by the commercial trailers setting their traps.

If it was just a matter of You or I as you put it, then yes the market is bigger and we might just be able to beat it .... but the market is WE and when WE all see the same profiable strategy then the market will arb it out, sooner or latter ... its how the market works otherwise the maket wouldn't work at all. You think Ras's MT4 server dosn't have an alert on his account already ? It will have and he may well get a call from his broker trying to work out his strategy. If I where him I would have 10 MT4 accounts, one for each currency.

It is very difficult, near impossible to beat the market, to do so means the market isn't workinf as it should to reflect value efficiently That is why you are not trading one of the hundreds of other systems on FF that are public and making a fortune from them, instead here asking here for the system Ras's has worked out. Study his system and see what he is doing .... or keep searching for your own.
  • #103
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:55pm Feb 12, 2013 8:55pm
Congratulations on your profits. I am, however, the permanent skeptic, and I'm going to say this - I've never seen anybody on this forum come up with a "system" that produces these types of outrageous returns in the long run. The game that the big players play is not complex and is hardly secret, although there are many distractions (indicators for example) along the way to get dumb money to part with their funds. This has been confirmed to me by several of the most successful members on this board as well as by people such as Sam Seiden who worked for the institutions you often trade against. I am quite convinced that all of these systems are more or less gimmicks based on at best temporary quirks in market conditions or at worst extremely poor money management. In particular, if you fear that a leak of your "system" will destroy it, your edge is guaranteed to be short lived. There should never be a need to hide what you're doing unless you're another scam artist or vendor trying to get noobs to PM you. Hope you don't take this the wrong way, but I would ask that you mull what I say over.
  • #104
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:13pm Feb 12, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting Kanzler
Well the world is a small place and the Forex market for retailers is even smaller .. about 100,000 traders world wide. 100,000 little fish waiting to be netted by the commercial trailers setting their traps.

If it was just a matter of You or I as you put it, then yes the market is bigger and we might just be able to beat it .... but the market is WE and when WE all see the same profiable strategy then the market will arb it out, sooner or latter ... its how the market works otherwise the maket wouldn't work at all. You think Ras's MT4 server...
I still disagree that a system out of the bag is doomed to fail. The markets have changed over the last 5 years I've been looking, the market has changed not the banks have been taking people out. I had many systems that worked well, now, not so good. It's not the banks taking me out of the game, it is many factory that have changed the market to now move differently.
What I do agree with you though is that individual brokers can and some certainly do scam people, so I would agree yes that it could be important to use different brokers and spread the trades around if the success is continued.
And just to clear things up, my system is no different than a lot of out there, trend, momentum, money management.. I don't need to look for something better, I like to!

anyway, enough is enough from me, you can reply as you like and I won't keep going on. I want to see this thread continue with trades and hopefully some more clues.
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #105
  • Edited 9:43pm Feb 12, 2013 9:33pm | Edited 9:43pm
Quoting Kanzler
Congratulations on your profits. I am, however, the permanent skeptic, and I'm going to say this - I've never seen anybody on this forum come up with a "system" that produces these types of outrageous returns in the long run. The game that the big players play is not complex and is hardly secret, although there are many distractions (indicators for example) along the way to get dumb money to part with their funds. This has been confirmed to me by several of the most successful members on this board as well as by people such as Sam Seiden who worked...
Most systems that make outrageous gains have a horrible risk to reward ratio, or a horrible amount of risk that causes , say, a 5 trade loosing streak to crash their account. Just look at the largest accounts for this month, they usually have a nice curve going up, and then 10 trades that crash the account, not to mention the losers are larger than the winners (usually much much larger). So they are relying on not having a loosing streak, which is impossible and farely stupid, I dont know why people do it. It will come some day, maybe 8 months later, but it will come

This system has:
+ a good RR ratio (well it has recently, hes reduced risk, but in past not so)
+ small risk per trade (well, i dont know how he gets out of trades... hmmmm... maybe a rare market condition can cause him to lose alot in one trade, in which case it wont be sustainable. probably doesnt have a sl in place, or if he does a large one which will cause a large percentage loss).
+ lots of trades.

I see a -2.8% loser (besides the big loser he had before he changed system). Most are around -0.5%, with winners being typically bigger. The only thing that can take him out is a ridiculously long losing streak. Since a -2.8 seems rare, a loosing streak of 20 will only let him down 10%. Or, a market condition that takes out his emergency sl and then he loses a large percentage, if thats how the system works

Now he does have 20 trades in a day, and he does trade correlated pairs (so its like the same trade). But having a 20 trades in a day loss seems very rare and hasnt happened yet.

Theres no -20% if he loses once. I think the odds are stacked up for him to continue this way and sustain it......

As long as he doesnt increase risk per trade....

Atleast the system doesnt rely on not having a loosing streak, a farely small one too lol....
  • #106
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:39pm Feb 12, 2013 9:39pm
Quoting juicyt
I still disagree that a system out of the bag is doomed to fail. The markets have changed over the last 5 years I've been looking, the market has changed not the banks have been taking people out. I had many systems that worked well, now, not so good. It's not the banks taking me out of the game, it is many factory that have changed the market to now move differently.
What I do agree with you though is that individual brokers can and some certainly do scam people, so I would agree yes that it could be important to use different brokers and spread...
The markets really haven't changed at the basic level. Concepts such as supply and demand are eternal and will always work. "Systems" which are curve fitted to be profitable during certain macromarket conditions such as trends or ranges will end up failing as soon as those conditions change, and you won't know it until all of your profits have been sucked from your account. The banks, brokers, and other boogymen people regularly refer to do nothing but the same thing they've always done - buy low sell high. People are just too dumb to figure that out for some reason and instead blame their failure on corruption, their broker "stop hunting" or other figments of their imagination, all in order to divert blame from themselves.

What I was referring to are the users who come here, try to woo the naive with incredible (but unsustainable) results, and then grab their money and run. It's a classic fraud that's been going on here for as long as the forum existed - thankfully there are moderators like Twee that try their best to keep a sharp eye on things. I write what I do only because I don't want to see more people parting with their hard earned money in another fraud. If this isn't a gimmick there's no reason to shroud the "system" in secrecy.
  • #107
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:45pm Feb 12, 2013 10:45pm
Sorry Kanzler, I wasn't quoting you although your name is there, the words are from Webart's writing. (it quoted me wrong so I cut and paste)

I do agree with what you have writen.

jt
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #108
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:46am Feb 13, 2013 2:46am
Quoting Kanzler
. In particular, if you fear that a leak of your "system" will destroy it, your edge is guaranteed to be short lived. ...
Why would keeping an edge private ensure its short lived ?

Have a read of The Encylopedia of Trading Strategies (Keffrey Owen Katz). They test every well known system under the sun, including infact solar and lunar cycles and out of all of the systems they test only 1 came up as a succsesfull system out of sample based on their criteria for a succsesful system. The 1 that was succesful was found only by complex genetic sets which found a very specific ineffiecieny in the market on a long term basis.

So why don't all those common systems work, the MA crosses, the breakouts, reversions, momentum following system, cyclic .. they all fail and the reason why is that the market is efficient to them. If all of those systems worked, then we would all just run them and not go to work each day. How many rich traders do you know ? How many go rich following an MA cross ? The only way to beat the market, is to beat everyone in the market, to be one up and one ahead of them. Your taking their money. The herd dosn't win.

As for commercial, I assure you that people in commercial see retail as their income. I know as I have heard commercial people tell me that their job is to make money from retail, in the same way a wholesaler would make money from a retailer. That is how they see retailers.

I know for a fact that there are commercial operators who set very spefic traps for retail traders, based on retail systems and know stop sizes, infact I was once invited to join with one commercial operator. They would pick 1 spot in the market each day, where they knew that many retailers would try to buy and with standard retail stop sizes, and then if that spot was hit they would launch a massive serious of trades against them and not let up until the stops where hit. MT4 brokers and banks can see where all the stops are, they know where the money is and once they get into the stops they go off like a million mouse traps only sending the market further away. Then they get out for the day after having fleeced retail and the market continues on. These thing happen on the short term timeframe where most retailers are. Longer time frames are a different story. Commercial also make money in other ways such as through the spread.

As for Ras's system, I thinks its made a fantastic start and seems to have resilience built into it somehow. But in reality there are many system that produce a few months good result in backtesting and then change. Not to dampen Ras's hopes, I think he is onto something good here.

I recently did alot of testing on Harmonic systems, Gartley / 5 point patterns When I first started testing from the year 2000 I saw the beautiful equity curve building up. I went to bed full of optimism that this system could make some good money. Next day I got up and see that all the profits where gone. From about 2006 the system went backwards and never recovered. That's because the market soaked up the system and efficiency took over.
  • #109
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:53am Feb 13, 2013 2:53am
Quoting webart
Why would keeping an edge private ensure its short lived ?

Have a read of The Encylopedia of Trading Strategies (Keffrey Owen Katz). They test every well known system under the sun, including infact solar and lunar cycles and out of all of the systems they test only 1 came up as a succsesfull system out of sample based on their criteria for a succsesful system. The 1 that was succesful was found only by complex genetic sets which found a very specific ineffiecieny in the market on a long term basis.

So why don't all those common systems...
When I say it is sure to be short lived I mean exactly what you demonstrated in the last paragraph of your post. It's a gimmick and eventually the market will become wise to it. For example, say that I were somehow the only person on the planet to be aware of triangular arbitrage, for the moment. I could keep that secret for a while, but how long until the other market participants become aware of my trick? When people say this is like poker it really is in some aspects. You can become a professional poker player based on skill alone and being able to read your opponents, much like you can become a professional trader by being able to read the charts correctly, seeing what the other participants are doing. Trying to find an inefficiency in the game of poker is unlikely to be successful and if one is found it won't be long until someone else discovers it as well and your source of revenue dries up.
  • #110
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:02am Feb 13, 2013 3:02am
I see what you are saying Kanzler, so seems all the more reason to keep a lid on it as long as possible. I guess your right from the market perspective making money out the up and down movements is a gimmick ... inefficient, the market isn't there to make days traders rich, its there to measure value.
  • #111
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:59am Feb 13, 2013 4:59am
Quoting webart
I see what you are saying Kanzler, so seems all the more reason to keep a lid on it as long as possible. I guess your right from the market perspective making money out the up and down movements is a gimmick ... inefficient, the market isn't there to make days traders rich, its there to measure value.
What the heck do you mean by an efficient market? There is no such thing. You seriously cant interpret the market operating on supply/demand as the market being efficient ... market will always operate on supply and demand, this edge cannot be destroyed
  • #112
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:02am Feb 13, 2013 5:02am
I mean the market reflects value based on all known factors at the current time. You havn't read about market efficiency ? The market is based on it .. .. more or less. It's the more or less part where we traders hope to sneak in .... unless you talking buy and hold, but that's another story.
  • #113
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:12am Feb 13, 2013 5:12am
Quoting webart
I mean the market reflects value based on all known factors at the current time. You havn't read about market efficiency ? The market is based on it .. .. more or less. It's the more or less part where we traders hope to sneak in .... unless you talking buy and hold, but that's another story.
ive heard about it, but what does the market reflecting value have to do with sneaking in? i guess i like to view the market as a living entity which shows various patterns that can be exploited, not as a living entity which tries to adapt to all your trades and make you net non profitable. this seem rather counterproductive to me and rather not true, thats all.... just a different mentality. i mean, what makes commercial people smarter than retailers? My guess is forex is advertised, and looks like easy money, then they are taught systems that dont work, and then people give up. so the only difference is retailers give up before they find things that actually work, but before that they go in big thinking they can make it big without trying too hard
  • #114
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:16am Feb 13, 2013 5:16am
Quoting webart
Why would keeping an edge private ensure its short lived ?

Have a read of The Encylopedia of Trading Strategies (Keffrey Owen Katz). They test every well known system under the sun, including infact solar and lunar cycles and out of all of the systems they test only 1 came up as a succsesfull system out of sample based on their criteria for a succsesful system. The 1 that was succesful was found only by complex genetic sets which found a very specific ineffiecieny in the market on a long term basis.

So why don't all those common systems...
backtesting never seems to work for me. for example, the cowabunga system. He was net profitable over the time he recorded his trades, yet an ea that claimed to do the same thing went down in flames over the same time.

Also, the indicators ive seen that do gartley have a very very large PRZ (a wider range of ratios that form a bat, etc....). they simply do not work very well
  • #115
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:22am Feb 13, 2013 5:22am
Quoting webart
I mean the market reflects value based on all known factors at the current time. You havn't read about market efficiency ? The market is based on it .. .. more or less. It's the more or less part where we traders hope to sneak in .... unless you talking buy and hold, but that's another story.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis relies on people like us to correct inefficiencies for the market to remain 'efficient'. Somewhat of a paradox really, and the only people I've seen invoke it in more than a stray paragraph are the academic types who don't actually trade but want someone to argue with.
  • #116
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:35am Feb 13, 2013 5:35am
Quoting Starry
ive heard about it, but what does the market reflecting value have to do with sneaking in?
Well the only way to make money in the market beyond buy and hold, is to find a area of the market that is not efficient. The market often over and under values true value. So for example you might think the market has over valued so you sell it, hoping that it was not efficient in reflecting the true value at the time. If you are right, the you have just beat the market. A good time to do that might be during a news release, when the market over or under values, but again that is getting harder to do nowadays too. The best way to beat it would be to have the information before the market could value it ... that's called insider trader ... illegal of course.

As for backtesting, it is hard to compare an EA with a manual trader.

As for 5 pointed patterns, they no longer work very well, but in previous times, 10 years ago, they did. In the 80's you could get rich with a Commodore 64 and breakouts. You can backtest breakouts from the 80's and see this. Breakouts not longer work conistantly.
  • #117
  • Feb 13, 2013 5:45am Feb 13, 2013 5:45am
Quoting Kanzler
The Efficient Market Hypothesis relies on people like us to correct inefficiencies for the market to remain 'efficient'. Somewhat of a paradox really....

Exactly, and the way we correct the inefficiencies is to try to take advantage of them to make money.
  • #118
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:04am Feb 13, 2013 6:04am
Quoting webart
Exactly, and the way we correct the inefficiencies is to try to take advantage of them to make money.
Well I'm not entirely sure why we went full circle there but I'll close out my posts before I go to sleep by saying that I still think this thread is pointless except for the purposes of an ego boost or to initiate fraud. What I see is an OP who refuses to post any details of his or her system and truthfully has little incentive to do so no matter what the motivation (would expose the scam or ruin a gimmick). What do learners get out of this? Nothing concrete as far as I can tell.
  • #119
  • Feb 13, 2013 6:15am Feb 13, 2013 6:15am
Yeah well we have gone full circle. Your saying Ras should tell us how he made 2000% in a couple of months while at the same time admitting that doing so will result in the market taking his system (gimmick) out.

I've been trading for 20 years and I have got plenty out of his trades. I'll be watching to see how this system holds up over time. I can only hope Ras is kind enough to continue posting results, I really enjoy seeing the system work each day personally.

Sometimes posting your results is a good way to prevent bad physcology as you have the whole world watching you.
  • #120
  • Feb 13, 2013 8:36am Feb 13, 2013 8:36am
Quoting vladrac
How many pips for SL you have , while targeting only a few pips of profit!
me?? i get chickened out so exit early, but the harmonic dance should have atleast a rr ratio of 1:1 , with up to 1:3 being common, and sometimes 1:5. I use constant 10 pip sl. i have far to many small trades because i dont let it run to the completion point (i.e. dont follow the rules!), so the rr ratio is skewed . but im working it out
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