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The Greatest Game

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 4, 2013 12:10am Feb 12, 2013 4:35pm | Edited Mar 4, 2013 12:10am
It's been said that hitting a baseball is the hardest skill to master in sports. Is beating the market the hardest skill to master in mental sports?



GROUND RULES

1. Respect the pitcher
2. Risk reduction > profit hunting
3. Emotionless execution
4. Eliminate errors
5. Keep meticulous records
6. D1 direction only
7. D1, H4, H1 pitches only
8. Swing at strikes
9. Play to win

Attached Image
  • #2
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:42pm Feb 12, 2013 4:42pm
PREGAME

Outfield Warmup
1. Identify key levels on W1 and D1 charts
2. Previous week closed up or down, outside or inside?
3. Previous day closed up or down, outside or inside?
4. Are daily ranges increasing or decreasing?

Infield Warmup
1. Identify key levels on H4 and H1 charts
2. Is the pitcher throwing above or below D1 open?
3. Is the pitcher throwing from the windup or stretch?
4. Is the pitcher throwing close to the strikezone?
  • #3
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:49pm Feb 12, 2013 4:49pm
THE PITCHER

The Stretch

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When the market is trending, the pitcher is throwing from the stretch. Men are on base so the pitcher has incentive to throw strikes. The strikezone becomes clearer and the pitches more reliable. Baserunners in the direction of the trend have less chance of getting picked off.



The Windup

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When the market is ranging, the pitcher is throwing from the windup. With nobody on base he can afford to throw more junk, and the strikezone becomes ill-defined. Pitches from the windup are less reliable and result in wasted at bats. Baserunners are often picked off or walked.
  • #4
  • Feb 12, 2013 4:56pm Feb 12, 2013 4:56pm
THE PITCHES

Inside Bar

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IBs are fastballs. They are easy to spot and thrown often. Good IBs should jump off the bat quickly, and they are great for extra base hits.



Outside Bar

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OBs are changeups. They're off-speed pitches because you're waiting longer for confirmation of momentum. The farther the pitch travels before closing the less likely it is to be an extra base hit.



Pin Bar

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PBs are curveballs. They can be tricky to spot but are great pitches to hit if clearly defined. Strikezone placement is the key to hitting PBs.
  • #5
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:03pm Feb 12, 2013 5:03pm
THE STRIKEZONE

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The strikezone is where the pitch is located within the market. Better put, it is the amount and clarity of a pullback after a definitive move in one direction. The sweet spot in the strikezone tends to be a 2-5 bar pullback in the vicinity of a sloping moving average. A pitch that has little to no pullback and is overextended from the moving average is considered outside. A pitch that has a very deep pullback that crosses over the moving average is considered inside. The farther away a pitch is from the strikezone the more dangerous it is to swing.
  • #6
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:05pm Feb 12, 2013 5:05pm
THE SWING

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Contact is made when the ball breaks the plane of a closed pitch by 1-3 pips. An out is made when the ball breaks the opposite plane of the pitch by 1-3 pips.
  • #7
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:08pm Feb 12, 2013 5:08pm
BASERUNNING

Baserunning is money management. Your objective, first and foremost, is to get on base safely. This means typically moving your stop to breakeven at 0.5-1B. You're then free to hold for extra bases if the market provides them. Follow your hit with a trailing stop.
  • #8
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:19pm Feb 12, 2013 5:19pm
BOX SCORE

Hits are defined are B-multiples. If a pitch has an out of 20 pips, a 20 pip hit = 1B, a 40 pip hit = 2B, and so on.

At bat (AB) = trade entry
Hit (H) = positive trade
Out (O) = negative trade
Walk (W) = flat trade
Single (1B) = 0.5-1.5B
Double (2B) = 1.5-2.5B
Triple (3B) = 2.5-3.5B
Homerun (4B) = 3.5-4.5B
Grandslam (nB) = 5B+
Total Bases (TB) = (1B + 2B + 3B + 4B + nB) - O
Batting Avg. (.xxx%) = H / AB
On Base Avg. (.xxx%) = (H + W) / AB
Slugging Avg. (.xxx%) = ((1B) + (2x2B) + (3x3B) + (4x4B) + (nxnB)) / AB
Error (E) = noticeable mistakes, lapses in discipline, etc.

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx stats.xlsx   15 KB | 431 downloads
  • #9
  • Edited 8:33pm Feb 12, 2013 5:21pm | Edited 8:33pm
Play ball

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  • #10
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:23pm Feb 12, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting surgeon
Can we liken it to shooting pool too?
This is how you get ejected.
  • #11
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:27pm Feb 12, 2013 5:27pm
Thank you all (but one) for letting me get the first 9 out, now the thread is open to everyone. Let's play and have fun.
  • #12
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:35pm Feb 12, 2013 5:35pm
Quoting Ap3
Thank you all (but one) for letting me get the first 9 out, now the thread is open to everyone. Let's play and have fun.
O.k. I'll stop being the buffoon in the ball-park stands.
Great intro, BTW. Very deep.
I see Beasts. I drop my scalpel and beckon to theatre nurse: "Charts!&
RubiconFund Return Today: -51.1%
  • #13
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:38pm Feb 12, 2013 5:38pm
Very nice Ap3, this should be fun...

Question: What exactly does (0.5-1.5B) the "B" stand for? Billion?

Other than that I love baseball/trading. And I love the daily/4hour/1hour charts.

Thanks

snarlyjack
  • #14
  • Feb 12, 2013 6:18pm Feb 12, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting snarlyjack
Very nice Ap3, this should be fun...

Question: What exactly does (0.5-1.5B) the "B" stand for? Billion?

Other than that I love baseball/trading. And I love the daily/4hour/1hour charts.

Thanks

snarlyjack
Quoting Ap3
BOX SCORE

Hits are defined are B-multiples. If a pitch has an out of 20 pips, a 20 pip hit = 1B, a 40 pip hit = 2B, and so on.


As shown
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #15
  • Feb 12, 2013 6:51pm Feb 12, 2013 6:51pm
Potential EJ H1 fastball setting up at the top of the hour. Looks like a decent strikezone.

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  • #16
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:03pm Feb 12, 2013 8:03pm
Quoting Ap3
Potential EJ H1 fastball setting up at the top of the hour. Looks like a decent strikezone.
Ap3,

Looks a great price action and bar reading method, chart is very clean. Do you mind share your Inside Bar indicator?

I see there is a line for the daily open? and the moving average in the background?

Regards, E.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #17
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:41pm Feb 12, 2013 8:41pm
AP3 this is really a great way to look at trading, well at least for me. I love baseball and will be
able to relate completely. I have be just working of the four charts and considering trading the
daily chart because of time restraints. Hence I have bee looking at pairs that I normally do not,
but I took a swing at an AUZ/NZD change up and I would say the ball is still in the air and moving
in the wrong direction....

I am having trouble getting the screen shot to display here but if you look at the daily chart you will
see the pitcher is in the stretch and it was in the strike zone... it was a change up so little harder to
handle. We will see if i hit a foul or an out or on base. It takes time for my plays to come to an end.

DS
  • #18
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:43pm Feb 12, 2013 8:43pm
One question have you defined a foul ball?
  • #19
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:54pm Feb 12, 2013 8:54pm
Quoting Erebus
Ap3,

Looks a great price action and bar reading method, chart is very clean. Do you mind share your Inside Bar indicator?

I see there is a line for the daily open? and the moving average in the background?

Regards, E.

Hint: that information can somehow be found using information in the first post.
  • #20
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:08pm Feb 12, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting dswanson2112
I took a swing at an AUZ/NZD change up and I would say the ball is still in the air and moving
in the wrong direction....
DS
I don't trade it, but ANZD looking good for an H1 fastball short off the MA, daily open, and figure.

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