GAINSY Hottest Forecasts

AUD/USD: Business Confidence Improves In Australia
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, AUD weakened 0.58% against the USD to close at 1.0259.

LME Copper prices rose marginally or $1.3/MT to $8216.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.5% or $9.8/MT to $2076.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0251, with the AUD trading marginally lower from yesterday’s close. ...

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EUR/USD: Euro Gained Following Positive Comments By ECB Council Member, Trading Lower This Morning
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, EUR rose 0.27% against the USD and closed at 1.3402, after the European Central Bank (ECB) council member, Jens Weidmann stated that, the Euro is not overvalued and warned Euro-zone governments against trying to weaken the currency.

In economic news, industrial production in France fell 2.1% annually in December, in line with market estimates and compared to the 3.8% fall recorded in November.

The greenback came under pressure, after the US Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman, Janet Yellen, stated that as long as inflation does not become a major concern, the central bank’s ultra loose monetary stance is appropriate to bring an improvement in the job market. ...

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Eurogroup Play Down Euro Strength, Push Talks To G20 Meeting
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

Euro Euro-zone finance ministers muted France`s proposal to establish a target level for the euro`s value at their second meeting in Brussels on Monday, pushing discussions on the rising strength of the currency to G20 meeting this bank weekend.

The appreciation of the euro was the main discussion in the monthly meeting of the Eurogroup, as France insisted yesterday that euro-zone finance ministers should address the bloc`s strengthening currency before it possibly harm the economy.

However, several ministers of the Eurogroup belittled the euro issue, only to force the discussion ahead of a possible call by the G7 countries for "market-determined" exchange rates. G20 meeting is expected to be the next battle ground! ...

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Intra-European Debate On The Value Of The Euro Continues
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

On Monday, EUR/USD traders experienced a rather dull trading session for most of the day. The calm was disturbed late in the European trading session on comment from Buba's Weidmann as he downplayed any potential overvaluation of the currency. The currency debate is still ongoing in the run-up to the G20 meeting.

Intraday, EUR/USD started trading for the new bank week well below the 1.34 mark. However, the rates that appeared on the screens were not really significant as most Asian markets were closed for regional holidays. Trading in Europe took a slow start too. The downside in equities was initially well protected and EUR/USD tried to regain the 1.34 around noon. During the day there were again a lot of comments from the EU policymakers on the value of the single currency. Ahead of the Eurogroup meeting, French Fin Min Moscovici was quoted repeating the French view that the euro zone needs more coordination on exchange rate policy. The ‘recoil' of the euro slowed after the headlines from Moscovici but this might have been just a coincidence. Later in the session, equities lost momentum and this weighed a bit on the single currency too. However, the debate on the value of the euro wasn't finished yet. Around the close of the European markets, Buba's Wiedmann repeated the well-know German point of view that the euro is not overvalued and that a weak euro could lead to inflation. With ST-term investors gradually positioning for further EUR/USD losses, these comments triggered a temporary short-squeeze. The pair revisited Friday's top in the 1.3425/30 area. However a fracture didn't occur. Later in the session, there were still headlines from the Eurogroup meeting. The Finance Ministers had concluded that the euro FX rate was a topic for the G20 meeting this bank week. EUR/USD reversed part of the previous gains and closed the session at 1.3406, compared to 1.3365 at the end of last bank week. For now, the debate on the valuation of the euro is unable to give EUR/USD a clear guidance. We also mention an interesting quote from Fed's Yellen on the value of the dollar as she said that the gradual depreciation of the dollar has contributed to the narrowing of the US current account deficit. However, we don't draw any USD positive conclusion from this statement as Yellen still defends an ultra-loose monetary policy ...

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USDJPY Steps Above 94 On The US Support
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The Asian session remained calm, as the majority of the equity markets were closed for the Lunar New Year for the second day, except Japan, Korea and Australia. The currency markets were dominated by weaker JPY, amid US Treasury Brainard said that US supports Japan in its efforts to fight the deflation and promote growth. While the IIF (Institute of International Finance) called on the G20 “to strengthen the global regulatory framework” and “take decisive action to raise global growth, reduce unemployment, and bolster financial stability”, the head of IIF, Mr. Adams, signaled no currency war in discussions for the upcoming meeting. ...

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Forex Signal Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 93.25
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

USD/JPY – 94.27

Original strategy :
Buy at 93.25, Target: 94.40, Stop: 92.90

Target: -
New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Forex Signal Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5680
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

GBP/USD - 1.5585

Original strategy :
Sell at 1.5730, Target: 1.5530, Stop: 1.5765

Target: -
New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

European Stocks Slump On Weak Corporate Earnings, Ahead Of G20 Meeting
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

European equity markets extended losses in early trade on Tuesday, as gloomy earnings of German ThyssenKrupp and t he United Kingdom's Barclays hurt market sentiment, and ahead of key G20 meeting.

Germany's leading steelmaker ThyssenKrupp warned that the company sees no global economic recovery this year after a slide in steel prices and weak car markets caused a 38 percent drop in the 2013 first quarter profit.

Meanwhile, the London-headquartered Barclays said on Tuesday it would cut at least 3,700 jobs in 2013 as it aims at reducing the group's total cost. The bank reported 2012 fourth-quarter losses of 610 million pounds compared with a profit of 602 million pounds in the same quarter a year earlier. ...

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U.K. Inflation Steadies At 2.7% In Jan., Eyes To Track BOE's Inflation Statement
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

U.K. inflation steadied at 2.7% in Jan. on higher alcohol and food prices, raising expectations prices would remain above the BOE's inflation target this year, ahead of tomorrow's BOE quarterly inflation report.

Today's data showed that CPI for the year ended Jan. lingered for a fourth straight month at the highest level since May, the longest stretch of unchanged prices since the series began in 1996,in line with median forecasts, where the upside pressure on prices on the annual basis came from the rise in alcohol and food prices.

On the monthly basis, the reading showed 0.5% drop from 0.5% rise in December decline in clothing and footwear costs.

Annual Core CPI, which excludes alcohol, food, tobacco and energy prices, retreated to 2.3% from previous of 2.4%.

Other inflation gauges showed that Retail Price Index (RPI) soared to 3.3% on the annual basis from 3.1% while plummeted 0.4% from 0.5% on the month. ...

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G7 Release Statement, Affirm Commitment To Market Determined Rates
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

'We, the G7 Ministers and Governors, reaffirm our longstanding commitment to market determined exchange rates and to consult closely in regard to actions in foreign exchange markets. We reaffirm that our fiscal and monetary policies have been and will remain oriented towards meeting our respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments, and that we will not target exchange rates. We are agreed that excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will continue to consult closely on exchange markets and cooperate as appropriate.' ...

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USDJPY Rallies Over The US Support
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The overnight trading session remained muted, as the majority of the Asian equity markets were closed for the Lunar New Year for the second day. The markets were clearly dominated by the JPY weakness and the Japanese stocks’ rally as the US Treasury Undersecretary Brainard said that US supports Japan in its combat to fight deflation and promote growth. The Japanese EconMin stated that he will step up his efforts to revive the economy, aiming to push the Nikkei 225 to 13,000 by the end of the fiscal year.

In Korea, the trading was rather risk-off, amid the fears on the weakening JPY and the seismic activity detected in North Korea due to nuclear blast. The local media reported that the nuclear test announced by the North Korea in response to UN sanctions over the rocket launch in December, is expected today or Saturday. Enough to raise some tension. ...


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Japan Can Do What It Wants According To The G7
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

Now that Currency Wars have been headline fodder for a couple of bank weeks, it has been necessary for authorities to step and cool that thought. This market has been assured from the highest authority, credible or not, that the ECB sees no risk of a currency war and it must be avoided. Vice-president Constancio reiterated the ECB's position, stating that they respect the "the G7 and G20-nation principles of floating exchanges" and the EUR being a member, its value should be left to the markets. The authorities only concerns rely in the single currency's exchange rate effect on future inflation. ...

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Intraday Statement: Sterling Dives after CPI, JPY Stays Pressured after G7 Statement
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Sterling decreased sharply today on lower than expected inflation data and on concern that BoE would lower its growth forecasts in the quarterly inflation report tomorrow. Meanwhile, Euro recoiled, and yen weakened after G7 issued a statement pledging not to target exchange rates. The comparative strength in Euro and Sterling sent EUR/GBP sharply higher above 0.86, comparing to 0.8446 low made earlier this bank week. Aussie and Canadian dollar are both soft as pressured by cross selling in EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD. ...

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Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 93.25
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

USD/JPY – 93.07

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Up

Tenkan-Sen level : 93.68
Kijun-Sen level : 93.71
Ichimoku cloud top : 93.04
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 92.95

Original strategy :
Bought at 93.25, Target: 94.40, Stop: 92.90

Long at 93.25
Target: - 94.40
92.90

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Forex Signal Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Target met and stand aside
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

EUR/USD – 1.3466

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level :1.3420
Kijun-Sen level :1.3419
Ichimoku cloud top :1.3464
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.3383

Original strategy :
Long entered at 1.3375, met target at 1.3475

Long at 1.3375
Target: - 1.3475

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Forex Signal Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5730
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

GBP/USD - 1.5654

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.5618
Kijun-Sen level :1.5627
Ichimoku cloud top :1.5757
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.5749

Original strategy :
Sell at 1.5680, Target: 1.5550, Stop: 1.5715

Target: -
New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Elliott Wave Forecast: USD/CAD – Exit long entered at 0.9960
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

USD/CAD – 1.0040

Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and A-B-C correction has possibly ended at 1.0658

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy :
Bought at 0.9960, Target: 1.0100, Stop: 0.9930

Long at 0.9960
Target: - 1.0100
0.9930

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Elliott Wave Forecast: EUR/GBP – Buy at 0.8545
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

EUR/GBP – 0.8608

Recent wave: v of wave 3 has possibly ended at 0.8067 but wave 4 should hold below 0.9050

Trend: Up

Original strategy :
Buy at 0.8400, Target: 0.8515, Stop: 0.8360

Target: -
New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Currency Wars Take Centre Stage
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

We are moving into a new paradigm in the FX market, one that could be substantially more volatile especially as we lead up to the G20 meeting later this bank week. Today the G7 released a statement specifically on the FX market. It reaffirmed the G7's "commitment to market determined exchange rates" and reiterated its pledge not to "target exchange rates" in respect to domestic policy objectives. This sounded fairly neutral, and typical of the G7 - statements clouded by a veil of diplomacy. But then an extraordinary thing happened, something I have never seen in the years I have been involved in the FX market. A G7 official came out and said that the statement had been miss-interpreted and the G7 was, in fact, concerned about excessive yen moves and the Japanese currency will be the focus of the G20 at this bank week's meeting in Moscow. ...

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Forex Signal: EUR/USD – Look to sell higher
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

EUR/USD – 1.3444

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level :1.3447
Kijun-Sen level :1.3420
Ichimoku cloud top :1.3394
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.3391

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE