AUD/USD - is it still risk adverse? | Forex Factory

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AUD/USD - is it still risk adverse?

  • Poll

  • Aussie to break 1.015 or 1.06
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  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 12, 2013 3:28am Feb 12, 2013 3:28am
Hi Everyone,

Been trading 3 years, in the market when the Aussie Dollar broke above parity and rallied to 1.10

But we have just broken 1.025,

Just started this new thread as a more direct source of information with less noise. Hopefully get the attention of some experienced traders and have some decent talks about what makes the market move.

Purpose is trading AUD/USD and of course related FX pairs, but also to consider, will the AUDUSD break parity..? Is the Australian Dollar still risk adverse? Or are we just experiencing inverse correlation with heavy manipulation with the AUD being the effected currency
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #2
  • Feb 12, 2013 7:47am Feb 12, 2013 7:47am
AUDUSD will go now up
  • #3
  • Feb 12, 2013 8:22am Feb 12, 2013 8:22am
Another audusd forum...we have three now...its just like a political party, split up and still talking the same exact thing. Anyway she is going up now..up up and away.
  • #4
  • Feb 12, 2013 2:04pm Feb 12, 2013 2:04pm
AUD/USD tested 1.0226, tested support and rallied above 1.03 resistance, which is now support.

1.03 could be used as support to higher levels say 1.06.

Will be interesting to see if the next session drives it back down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 1.03.PNG Size: 47 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #5
  • Feb 12, 2013 2:05pm Feb 12, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting azzam
Another audusd forum...we have three now...its just like a political party, split up and still talking the same exact thing. Anyway she is going up now..up up and away.
Just trying to get something free of all the noise.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #6
  • Feb 12, 2013 2:09pm Feb 12, 2013 2:09pm
I do still believe AUDUSD is the bullish pair, carry trading and just the general relative stability of their economies.

Question is where is the bottom, hardest question i know,

I have a short and its negative swap is equal to 170 pips, I know this is bad, thinking to I just never take it out? Is that really that bad?
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #7
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:52pm Feb 12, 2013 5:52pm
CONGRATS on the thread.....

here's my view on AU

-been ranging all summer from 1.0166 -1.06
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aufeb12d1.gif Size: 36 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #8
  • Feb 13, 2013 12:26am Feb 13, 2013 12:26am
Quoting gnomoneey
CONGRATS on the thread.....

here's my view on AU

-been ranging all summer from 1.0166 -1.06
Yes true.

1.017 is one of the pivots. Further supporting lower channel. I haven't been using pivot levels, need an online tool that calculates them automatically. i could do it in excel but dont have the time.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #9
  • Feb 13, 2013 8:58am Feb 13, 2013 8:58am
Quoting John Gray
Yes true.

1.017 is one of the pivots. Further supporting lower channel. I haven't been using pivot levels, need an online tool that calculates them automatically. i could do it in excel but dont have the time.
hope this helps.....look at post 99

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post6163931

auotpivotindicator.ver5 is what i use....
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #10
  • Feb 13, 2013 11:27pm Feb 13, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting gnomoneey
hope this helps.....look at post 99

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post6163931

auotpivotindicator.ver5 is what i use....
Very cool!
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #11
  • Feb 16, 2013 9:59pm Feb 16, 2013 9:59pm
John, my best wishes to your brand new thread. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #12
  • Feb 16, 2013 10:01pm Feb 16, 2013 10:01pm
A lot of people think the Aussie is dead. I'd say wait a second. This pair was notorious for its volatile moves not long ago. It's not a extinct volcano but a dormant one. It may erupt at any time while the bears hibernate next to such a volcano...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ume_910612.jpg
USGS
daddybearforex. com
  • #13
  • Feb 16, 2013 10:05pm Feb 16, 2013 10:05pm
Quoting gnomoneey
CONGRATS on the thread.....

here's my view on AU

-been ranging all summer from 1.0166 -1.06

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360713093
This is bullish in the weekly and monthly context IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14
  • Feb 17, 2013 1:12am Feb 17, 2013 1:12am
Quoting DaddyBear
John, my best wishes to your brand new thread. -DB-
Thank you DaddyBear, hopefully it goes well, just a place to collate all my thoughts really and hopefully gather some good feedback.

Quoting DaddyBear
A lot of people think the Aussie is dead. I'd say wait a second. This pair was notorious for its volatile moves not long ago. It's not a extinct volcano but a dormant one. It may erupt at any time while the bears hibernate next to such a volcano...

USGS
Totally agree, I am taking long positions at every new low, ideal situation ride all longs to 1.06 as target 1, 1.08 as target 2 and 1.10 as target 3.

Until 1.10 is broken, we are on mapped territory and market is known. If 1.10 breaks I will use Fib Expansions to generate new targets, but of course using every 100 pip as a tradable level

Anyway, I am in Australia this week on a trip and will not be too active, although I will do my best to get back to you guys ASAP.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #15
  • Feb 17, 2013 6:22am Feb 17, 2013 6:22am
Hmmm I loathe shorting this pair as it bites you on the ass more times then not but from a trend following perspective it is now in sell all rallies mode. It could fall as far as 96 although probably not. 1.0150 next stop very likely imo.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-d1-vantagefx-pty-ltd.png Size: 38 KB
  • #16
  • Feb 18, 2013 7:12am Feb 18, 2013 7:12am
Hi there

Here's my 2 cents

Looking at the 4hr chart, the MACD is below the zero level and increasing in value strongly. The stochastic is also increasing strongly confirming the major current upside direction. A break above 1.0367 could see a move to 1.0413 which is the resistance level. However if support at 1.0285 doesn't hold, we could see a move down to 1.0246. My bias is to the upside, but I'm sitting out for now

Good luck all


http://i1072.photobucket.com/albums/...ps39236c69.png
  • #17
  • Feb 18, 2013 7:29am Feb 18, 2013 7:29am
I have trading AUD for a while , and I think this pair is heading down , technically view, as long as its below 1.0410 my first target is 1.0160 and second one is 1.000
Winning isn't Everything...Winning is THE ONLY THING
  • #18
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:48am Feb 18, 2013 10:48am
OMAR79, I AM WITH YOU ON THAT CALL. Technicals all show going down to atleast 1.0175 first and then 1.000. GL to all
  • #19
  • Feb 18, 2013 5:36pm Feb 18, 2013 5:36pm
Thank you for your input,

News today will kick things off.

Downside supports Chart 1:

Further continuation down to previous lows,

I believe lowest possible reversal point is 1.015 trading a Triple Bottom to 1.06

I think parity is extreme situation and if it goes there itll go through
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Outlook.PNG Size: 75 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #20
  • Feb 18, 2013 5:45pm Feb 18, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting John Gray
Hi Everyone,

Been trading 3 years, in the market when the Aussie Dollar broke above parity and rallied to 1.10

But we have just broken 1.025,

Just started this new thread as a more direct source of information with less noise. Hopefully get the attention of some experienced traders and have some decent talks about what makes the market move.

Purpose is trading AUD/USD and of course related FX pairs, but also to consider, will the AUDUSD break parity..? Is the Australian Dollar still risk adverse? Or are we just experiencing inverse correlation...
What makes the markets move? Many things including the desire for profit, hence even when fundamentals suggest move should be one way we can see it moving the other through manipulation or money chasing the most profitable trades.

Will AUDUSD break parity? Yes, but real question is when? Presently just have to focus on price action and as gnomoneey pointed out price action has been confined to 1.0150 to 1.0625 for about 7 months so trades to profit from longs near bottom of this and shorts near top of this are good risk reward. Breakout will come and could be to either side. Partly a battle at present between the big central banks attempts at devaluation and RBA stating AUD overvalued. The longer AUD stays relatively high the more damage to the Australian economy and the harder it will fall when it does, but this may not be until bigger economies recover and stop manipulation. Bigger economies will struggle to recover when they are playing games with each other and taxpayers money, but then they only care about themselves and rich will get richer and poor poorer.

Is AUD still risk adverse? Australia is a small fish in a big ocean so in my opinion will always be a price taker and thus risk adverse. It's obviously less risk adverse then it used to be because Australian economy is better positioned than many in the world at present. End of the day though when I ask myself what would traders do if there were another GFC or breakup of Euro and I believe the answer to be flock to USD, hence AUD still risk adverse.

I'm also intrigued by your signature line, "Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time." I've tried a similar style of trading and it can work if the opening position was reasonable. Ultimately though it can be about opportunity cost, does holding a position for ages tie up capital and prevent you opening better positions? In the extreme think of the worst trade as, what if you shorted in October 2008 at 60c? At approx 1 pip per day per mini contract that's over 1460 pips if you still had the position open. This equates to having a short below 45.4 cents, a level not seen since 1985 (if ever, forex factory chart doesn't go back earlier).

Happy trading & enjoy your time in OZ.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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