GAINSY Hottest Forecasts

What Positioning Data is Telling Us
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The latest positioning data gives us a good insight into what currencies the market likes/ dislikes. The latest IMM and CFTC data both reported fresh flows into the euro last bank week. The CFTC non-commercial flows into the euro are back to 2011 levels, and continue to recover after shorts reached a record low last June. Sterling is still being sold along with the commodity currencies like the Aussie and the CAD...

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Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Buy at 92.55
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

USD/JPY – 93.34

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Up

Tenkan-Sen level : 93.02
Kijun-Sen level : 92.94
Ichimoku cloud top : 93.05
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 92.86

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Forex Signal Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.3375
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

EUR/USD – 1.3377

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level :1.3384
Kijun-Sen level :1.3382
Ichimoku cloud top :1.3469
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.3429

Original strategy :
Hold long entered at 1.3375, Target: 1.3475, Stop: 1.3350

Long at 1.3375
Target: - 1.3475
1.3350

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Daily Statement: JPY Dropped to Fresh Low Against USD as US Support Anti-Deflation Policy
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

JPY weakened broadly and decreased to fresh low against dollar after an US official expressed support for Japan's anti-deflation policy. The Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard, who will represent US at G20 meeting in Moscow, said that US "support the effort to reinvigorate growth and to end deflation in Japan". Meanwhile she also urged that G20 to "deliver on the commitment to move to market-determined exchange rates and refrain from competitive devaluation." Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said after a cabinet meting that he would tell G20 the country is "firmly conducting monetary and economic policies in order to escape from a prolonged deflationary stagnation." USD/JPY broke through 94.05 minor resistance and is now heading for 95 psychological level. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is set to challenge near term high of 127.70 and 147.97 respectively. ...

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Elliott Wave Forecast: EUR/JPY – Buy at 124.50
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

EUR/JPY – 126.14

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A is unfolding for gain to 130.00

Trend: Up

Original strategy :
Bought at 124.10, Target: 127.50, Stop: 123.50

Long at 124.10
Target: - 127.50
123.50

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Forex Signal: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5730
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

GBP/USD - 1.5662

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.5655
Kijun-Sen level :1.5726
Ichimoku cloud top :1.5789
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.5745

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Forex Signal: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.3375
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

EUR/USD – 1.3388

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level :1.3395
Kijun-Sen level :1.3392
Ichimoku cloud top :1.3465
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.3379

Original strategy :
Hold long entered at 1.3375, Target: 1.3475, Stop: 1.3350

Long at 1.3375
Target: - 1.3475
1.3350

New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Forex Signal: USD/JPY – Buy at 93.25
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

USD/JPY – 94.08

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Up

Tenkan-Sen level : 94.13
Kijun-Sen level : 93.49
Ichimoku cloud top : 93.05
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 92.72

Original strategy :
Buy at 92.55, Target: 93.70, Stop: 92.20

Target: -
New strategy : ... Are you interested? READ MORE

Australia's Business Sector Stabilize In January
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

Australia's Business Confidence inclined during the month of January amid the recent boosted recovery in Chinese economy, the main trade partner, to boost Australia's business sector's outlook during the upcoming period.

Moreover, Australia's NAB business confidence index reading inclined to 3 in January, compared with a previous revised reading of 2 from 3. ...

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Could The USD's Fortunes Be Changing?
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

There have been plenty of false starts when it comes to calling for a stronger dollar and the dollar index is currently close to its lowest ever levels. Although there have been bouts of strength in the greenback, particularly during periods of financial market stress, the dollar index is currently around the middle of its 5-year range, but could the tides be turning and can the dollar embark on a multi-year, broad-based strengthening? ...

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Short Term Price Action Driven By Jawboning
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The dollar is trading mixed amid a lack of economic data releases and after commentary from central bank officials. Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen spoke on the economy today and Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member Jens Wiedmann discussed the euro. Earlier comments from Japanese officials weighed on the yen today as potential Bank of Japan candidate Kuroda said that additional easing can be justified for 2013. USD/JPY climbed higher to nearly test the 94.00 figure. We would caution against further yen declines in the short term as the BoJ meeting later this bank week is unlikely to provide any new easing measures and despite the dovish comments from Kuroda, he has not yet been nominated as the next BoJ head. ...

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US Signals All-Clear on BOJ Policies
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

A hint that the US has no problem with the Japanese policies that have weakened the yen. The euro was the top performer on the day while the yen lagged. Japanese consumer confidence and machine tool orders are the highlights as Japan returns from holiday. The trades from the Feb 8 Premium Insights were updated, with an addition in gold, silver and oil. 2 EURUSD trades remain in progress, so do USDCAD, EURGBP and oil.

US Treasury undersecretary Brainard told reporters on Monday that his country supports Japan's efforts to reinvigorate growth and end deflation.

The comment was slow to circulate but it appears to be a signal that the US has no intention of forcing a showdown with Japan on FX. If that's the case, the rest of the G20 will likely fall in line at meetings beginning in Moscow. ...

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US Official Endorses Japans Monetary Policy And WeakerJPY
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

U.S. USD Trading (USD) volatility continued throughout the Chinese New Year Celebrations with comments from USTreasury Official Brainard that she supports Japanese efforts to end deflation via aggressive monetary easing. Other speakers overnight included FED member Yellen who restated the case for the FED totarget employment given the historically high unemployment rates currently seeneven considering the recession. The FED has recently linked the end of the bond buying to an unemployment rate under 6.5% and so jobs numbers have grown inimportance in recent months. Looking ahead, SNB Jordan speaks, FED Member George Speaks.

The Euro (EUR) EUR/USD grinded higher from 1.3360 to 1.3410 lifted by EUR/JPY buying. There were lots of Euro FX comments overnight but the most prominent was ECB Weidmann stating latest indicatorsdidn’t signal a serious overvaluation of the Euro. The German FinMin backed this up stating the market should set FX rates and the G20 should stick to theagreed line against manipulation. ...

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Asia Session: Another Bout Of JPY Selling
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The yen has been dealt another blow, this time by the suggestion that the US will not publicly object to aggressive policy easing in Japan. The market had fears that the G20 summit would provide the perfect background for the US to voice any concerns it may have, which included possible objection of a push towards aggressive loosening in Japan which is weakening its currency. Some of these fears have eased since Brainard’s speech. In effect, a temporary floor for the yen has been removed.

The resulting sell-off in the yen sent USDJPY through a significant resistance zone around 94.00. At the same time, Japanese stocks were lifted by the speech from US Treasury Undersecretary Brainard, when she stated that the US supports the efforts of the Japanese to end deflation and reinvigorate growth. Stocks in Japan are benefiting from two different angles, the direct impact of loose policy, as well as the benefit of a weaker yen which makes Japan’s exports more competitive. ...

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Currencies War Began On Officials' Speaks
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

Japanese yen currently affected by officials' speaks in the U.S. and Japan, where the yen fell to its lowest level in three years and touch level 94.00 which opened the door for more decline during the upcoming period.

U.S. treasure stocks' officials noted that U.S. support Japanese decision of ending deflation threats, which added to signs that Japanese won't fight alone in the group of 20 meeting which be held this bank week as American economy will support Japanese yen.

From another side, the upcoming Bank Of Japan's governor noted that it will be more stimulus plans in Japanese economy during 2013, which boosted optimistic among investors that Japanese yen will fall again. ...

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European Stocks Ends Mixed, As Novo Share Falls
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

European stocks ended mixed on Monday’s session, as Novo Nordisk share decreased to its lowest level in four years after failing to get approval for new drug, amid of Euro-zone finance minister.

Euro-zone finance ministers gathered in Brussels today to discuss Cyprus bailout, as well as Greece for its second tranche of bailout of about 9.2 billion euros ahead of the EcoFin Council Meeting and the first G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors` Meeting in Moscow.

Novo Nordisk said today that the U.S. food and drug administration determines that the New Drug Applications for insulin products Tresiba and Ryzodeg cannot be approved in its current form; weighing down on stock indices. ...

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GBP/USD: GBP Trading Higher Ahead Of Domestic CPI Data Due Later Today
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, GBP fell 0.91% against the USD and closed at 1.5655.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.5659, with the GBP trading marginally higher from yesterday’s close.

In the morning economic releases, UK’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported that the seasonally adjusted house price balance decreased to a reading of -4.0 in January, compared to a revised reading of -1.0 recorded in the previous month. ...

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USD/JPY: JPY Slipped On US Treasury Official's Comment, Trading Higher This Morning
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)


For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD strengthened 1.76% against the JPY and closed at 94.19. The Japanese JPY eased after the US Treasury official, Lael Brainard offered his support towards Japan's efforts to end deflation and ahead of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on 14 February 2013.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 94.19, with the USD trading marginally lower from yesterday's close.

Data released this morning indicated that the M3 money stock in Japan advanced 2.3% (YoY) in January, compared to a 2.2% rise reported last month. Meanwhile, M2 money stock in Japan increased 2.7% (YoY) to ¥829.9 trillion in January. ...

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USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Trading Higher This Morning
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.36% against the CHF and closed at 0.9208.

Yesterday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) board member, Fritz Zurbruegg, stated that the Swiss National Bank would keep its cap on the Franc’s value at 1.20 per Euro “for the foreseeable future” and stands ready to do more if necessary to stem the currency’s rise.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9200, with the USD trading marginally lower from yesterday’s close. ...

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USD/CAD: Canadian Household Debts Pose Significant Risk, Indicates BoC Deputy Governor
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.16% against the CAD to close at 1.0054.

The Loonie lost ground amid lower commodities and as the Bank of Canada Deputy Governor, Timothy Lane stated that a long period of rising consumer debt and low interest rates pose a major risk to the country’s economy. He indicated that the heated housing market and indebted consumers are the biggest domestic threat to the Canadian economy, and cautioned that if the problem persists the central bank could hike interest rates.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0062, with the USD trading 0.08% higher from yesterday’s close. ...

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