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  • #21
  • Feb 7, 2013 2:39pm Feb 7, 2013 2:39pm
Continued...

Aqua15 EURUSD 15min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8383/8...58bf6084_b.jpg

DarkGray (7th) EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8100/8...88b9dd2b_h.jpg

SkyBlue EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8519/8...77630f36_b.jpg

Red5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8239/8...8688f782_h.jpg

Yellow EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8102/8...24c4edab_b.jpg
  • #22
  • Feb 7, 2013 2:47pm Feb 7, 2013 2:47pm
Continued...

Pink EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8086/8...6b1692d4_h.jpg

Blue EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8388/8...0a91e45c_b.jpg

So, 30 trades in and time for a few, very basic statistics.

13 Winners, 17 Losers for a win percentage of 43.3%

Winners average $12.969, losers average -$7.275 giving r:r of ~1.7827
Nominally risking ~$10/trade (but position sizing reduces that value)
Nominal risk:reward should be ~1:1.618

Gross profitable, net profitable as well (commission-based broker).

Monte Carlo simulated equity curve after 1000 trades based on 43.3% wins and 1.7827 avg win/avg loss--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8511/8...0e6aa7f4_b.jpg

Not much more to say. I will not be tweaking the system yet. At least 30 more trades are needed.

But, it goes to show that just trading ABCD's without lists and lists of rules, conjecture, or
complex indicators can be profitable.

More to come!
  • #23
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:29pm Feb 8, 2013 1:29pm
Real quick update for 9-to-5 meeting.

Just two trades, much of the move was done early with no longer
term ABCDs in play. The two trades were opposing which I prefer
as it guarantees me a win and 0.6% return. Sure knowing which
of the two works and which doesn't would be better, 1.6% return, but
the guarantee is also very nice.

Also, no ledger yet as the move has not gone to the ABfromC nor 127AB
levels.

Lime EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8372/8...c910a6d9_h.jpg

White EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8522/8...421fd6a0_b.jpg

Have a good weekend.
  • #24
  • Feb 11, 2013 4:49pm Feb 11, 2013 4:49pm
Quick update including those hanging trades from Friday--

Only real note was the EUR news that popped the market and took out
two short ABCD attempts. Normally I would not double down on positions
but right now I am exploring which wave or AB leg works best. I am
nearing a double long entry as I type as well. All part of the process.

Ledger (includes 2 trades from Friday 2/8)--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8505/8...281c2828_b.jpg

White EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8225/8...4af58ec8_b.jpg

SkyBlue EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8235/8...28d03d18_b.jpg

Silver EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8236/8...13449602_b.jpg
  • #25
  • Feb 11, 2013 4:51pm Feb 11, 2013 4:51pm
Cont--

Lime EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8095/8...98d116d5_b.jpg

BONUS, I accidentally removed a pending order for a longer term ABCD.
Of course it triggered and went to profit. It happens, both in demo and
live. Key is to minimize these mistakes.

Yellow15 (missed) EURUSD15min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8106/8...d1e1e0b4_b.jpg


Also, I did not mention that I have two opposing trades currently in play.
Would actually be 3 had my limit order long at 1.33938 been filled.
  • #26
  • Feb 12, 2013 2:51pm Feb 12, 2013 2:51pm
Data, data, data. Lots of trades today, not the best results, but
had a few trades either just tickle the 61.8% level for entries or just
tickle to pending limit order for target. Some times they fill, some times
they do not. It is part of the game. You cannot know unless you
are actively in the market. Looking at old charts may lead you astray.

Charts, including 3 from the overnight time. Awesome price action
that resulted in opposing long and short both going to target. Rare, but
always a possibility.

Ledger--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8367/8...7ec41487_b.jpg

Green EURUSD 1min (11th)--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8240/8...ae538fae_b.jpg

Aqua EURUSD 1min (11th)--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8523/8...d34b034d_b.jpg

Orange EURUSD 1min (11th)--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8239/8...b8f8ccf5_b.jpg

White EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8...2144f131_b.jpg
  • #27
  • Feb 12, 2013 2:53pm Feb 12, 2013 2:53pm
Continued...

Orange EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8376/8...00ecc07d_b.jpg

Pink EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8384/8...7a338050_b.jpg

Teal5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8088/8...166ccc2f_b.jpg

Lime EURUSD 1min (this one tickled target before going to stop loss)--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8244/8...4dfce492_b.jpg

Yellow5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8096/8...bb91d823_b.jpg
  • #28
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:02pm Feb 13, 2013 3:02pm
Short on trades, but lots of pending orders ready to pounce.

Ledger:
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8234/8...d6979d09_b.jpg

Red EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8532/8...50393d43_b.jpg

Coral EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8377/8...31ce814b_b.jpg

Plum EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8238/8...5d4a5f11_b.jpg

Coral5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8106/8...88a46627_b.jpg

The Red+Coral trades from evening 2/12/2013 was interesting in that
they were opposing trades, but rather than a guaranteed win-loss, I
got a win-win. It is a low percentage possibility, but certainly not
0, and really helps up the win%. Something to watch
  • #29
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:24pm Feb 14, 2013 4:24pm
Over the 50 trade mark, looks like trading live starting in March is a go.
I had a few pending trades left during (my) overnight with little success.
The shorts did not fill while the longs failed. Something to watch going
forward.

Ledger--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8375/8...83a1a87c_b.jpg

Yellow EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8382/8...1b4de965_b.jpg

Magenta30 EURUSD 30min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8375/8...18f7c8ef_b.jpg
  • #30
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:24pm Feb 14, 2013 4:24pm
Continued...

White30 EURUSD 30min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8097/8...ec11c228_b.jpg

Magenta5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8237/8...2ca3cc7f_b.jpg

Silver EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8233/8...8d0823f4_b.jpg

Magenta5 and Silver were opposing trades that nearly went win-win, but a
win-loss still works out as a winning net trade. I really appreciate how I can
essentially create a no-lose trade if the market moves in a seemingly routine
manner.
  • #31
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:57pm Feb 15, 2013 3:57pm
Finish the week of reasonably strong. Finding it very comforting
when I have opposing trades that guarantee a profit (or nearly so
as there is a low probability chance for loss-loss). I have two trades
still in play as seen in the ledger, but they are longer swings and
should be sorted out Sunday/Monday. Also, they are opposing and
should lead to at least 1 winner.

Ledger--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8532/8...b84ae6f0_b.jpg

Lime5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8519/8...2c4d6cae_b.jpg

Lime EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8235/8...b28e0d7a_b.jpg

Aqua EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8230/8...806f19b2_b.jpg

Gold EURUSD 1min (posted before bid went through stop just to show spread affect)--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8373/8...8681e5c9_b.jpg
  • #32
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:59pm Feb 15, 2013 3:59pm
Continued...

Plum EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8105/8...bb05527d_b.jpg

Next up is getting prepared for live trading. I am debating whether
to switch my account to MetaTrader or just run them side by side. I
duplicated the Plum ABCD on my broker's platform with good
success, even saw a few bonus pippets in entry and exit slippage.

More to come as always!
  • #33
  • Feb 20, 2013 4:11pm Feb 20, 2013 4:11pm
Monster update with a ton of trades.

I did not trade Monday given it was a US holidays, and I usually
get burned attempting to trade holidays. I just stood aside.

I had a few trades Tuesday, but the market was not conducive to
ABCD trading. Today (Wednesday) was similar. I traded a ton
today, to my detriment. Good thing it was on demo and greatly
helps my stats. Also reminds me that markets change, what works
one day may not the next. I have to chose to either grind it out and
accept losses, stop trading, or find a different timeframe that where
the waves are evident and working. The stair-step like market
just does not work, 61.8% retracements were few and far between
especially those that follow the main trend.

So, with respect for charts, there were a couple dangling trades from
last Friday that went to target and stops. They are presented first.
The few trades from Monday follow then the 11 (!) trades from today.

Important to note that 1) a few trades went right to my stop and reversed,
it happens, but it is important to learn from them, 2) I f'd up order entry on
one trade that would have gone to target. It shows target in my blotter, but
in my broker acct it was a loser.

More to come as always, just need to recouperate from today!

Ledger--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8524/8...b8c2584b_b.jpg

Silver5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8522/8...4a67dce6_b.jpg

White EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8246/8...81af66ac_b.jpg

Magenta5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8521/8...e64e9e46_b.jpg

Silver EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8521/8...e64e9e46_b.jpg
  • #34
  • Feb 20, 2013 4:11pm Feb 20, 2013 4:11pm
Continued...

Green EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8106/8...9acf520e_b.jpg

Aqua EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8229/8...e8b7dbf9_b.jpg

Silver EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8229/8...88f7dc68_b.jpg

Plum EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8507/8...4db525db_b.jpg

Yellow EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8373/8...c7c12aa8_b.jpg
  • #35
  • Feb 20, 2013 4:12pm Feb 20, 2013 4:12pm
Continued...

SkyBlue EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8387/8...a9b54386_b.jpg

White EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8087/8...d1e21675_b.jpg

Green15 EURUSD 15min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8515/8...8f42108b_b.jpg

Ivory EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8371/8...34bf7f16_b.jpg

Lime EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8378/8...ace04754_b.jpg
  • #36
  • Feb 20, 2013 4:12pm Feb 20, 2013 4:12pm
Continued...

Gold1 EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8370/8...13b95b91_b.jpg

Lime1 EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8110/8...71848e34_b.jpg

Enjoy the charts!
  • #37
  • Edited 5:10pm Feb 21, 2013 4:49pm | Edited 5:10pm
75 Trades and time for some analysis--

**After finishing, realized EA is not perfectly
tracking trades for the stop and reverse update, so % may be off**

Here is the full ledger. Left side are all the trades that hit 78.6AB level first
while the right side are the trades that hit 38.2BC first.

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8111/8...0837e8f1_b.jpg

You should see glaring differences between the two columns. Turns out
Mr. Pip and the harmonics traders are correct. Trades that go to 61.8AB
but reverse before 78.6AB are far more likely to go back to the B level
whereas those that go to 78.6AB are likely to be failed ABCD.

A total of 54 trades went to the 78.6AB level, and 45 of those 54 fully retraced
to the A level (also known as 100AB = full retracement). That is 83.3%. Only
9 trades that hit 78.6AB actually made it back to 0AB (B level).

There were 21 trades that did not reach 78.6AB and all of those went to the
target at 0AB (obviously).

That tells me that the stop at 100AB is only making my losses larger without
a beneficial allowance for market movement that ultimately results in a win.

SYSTEM UPDATE 1: Move stop to 78.6AB from 100AB, but I first must show
that the update increases profitability.

Currently, the system has a win rate of 40% with a nominal 1.618 avg win /avg loss.
This gives an expectancy of 0.0472. The risk is .382AB, reward is .618AB.

Replacing the stop (based on the 75 trades) would have reduced the win rate to
28% (21 wins /75 trades), but the nominal avg win / avg loss jumps to 3.678. This
combination gives an expectancy of 0.3098. Wowsa. The risk is now .168AB and
reward remains .618AB.

Question: Can you (or I) handle only seeing 1 in 4 trades win? Even if it proves
to be profitable? We shall see.

The simulated equity curves are certainly telling...

Original curve--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8101/8...096712bf_b.jpg

Updated curve (hell yeah)--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8386/8...06ff118a_b.jpg

SYSTEM UPDATE 2: Given that a move to 78.6AB usually goes to 100AB, is a
stop and reverse a profitable trade? As stated before, 45 of 54 trades that hit
78.6AB went to 100AB. If I use worse case scenario, I would be risking .786AB
to make .214AB. Most traders would run away from such an inverted risk reward
where avg win / avg loss is 0.272. But with 83% wins, the expectancy is 0.0557.
Not great, but positive, and this is holding the trade until it fully retraces back to B.

Here is that equity curve--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8391/8...909caf46_b.jpg

So, there is the first analysis of the 75 trades collected so far. I had 6 trades today
which will be posted shortly. 1 was a winner in which the Bid hit 78.6AB, but the ask
did not (= MONSTER PROBLEM), 4 hit 78.6AB and continued to 100AB, and 1 is still
in play w/o reaching 0AB nor 78.6AB.

More to come as always!
  • #38
  • Feb 22, 2013 4:42pm Feb 22, 2013 4:42pm
Update for 2/21 and 2/22--

The problem with analyzing results is I start to focus on the
updated system even though I have not implemented it. Meaning
I was watching to see if 786AB went consistently to 100AB etc
these last two days. That is not the goal, I need to focus only
on consistently identifying ABCD's, that is it.

Ledger--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8520/8...ee34525e_b.jpg

Plum EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8378/8...de860696_b.jpg

Red EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8111/8...9ffc7fd1_b.jpg

Yellow EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8086/8...c8923938_b.jpg

White EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8387/8...0646756a_b.jpg
  • #39
  • Feb 22, 2013 4:43pm Feb 22, 2013 4:43pm
Continued...

Green EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8248/8...08257ce6_b.jpg

Aqua EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8234/8...684f39ed_b.jpg

Pink5 EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8385/8...9d95669b_b.jpg

Lime EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8111/8...ca8f6ba2_b.jpg

White EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8384/8...457a58bc_b.jpg

Not much to say, going to finish out the month right around 100 trades then
decide what to update when March starts. I will open the thread then for
comments, questions, etc.
  • #40
  • Feb 25, 2013 4:36pm Feb 25, 2013 4:36pm
Still at it, 90 trades thus far...
Good day with 2 winners, 2 losers. Also two losers from Friday+
weekend. Just as importantly (and jumping the gun) is that
my 78.6% AB reversal trades all went to 100.0% AB. While I
am not officially trading this system update, I am watching it
very carefully. So, great day, excited to finish the month and
100 trades.

Ledger--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8111/8...90df7b8f_b.jpg

Gold5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8229/8...6095303f_b.jpg

Aqua5 EURUSD 5min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8391/8...e606732b_b.jpg

Pink EURUSD 1min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8520/8...198c965b_b.jpg

Red30 EURUSD 30min--
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8520/8...13632c76_b.jpg
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