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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,661
  • Jan 28, 2013 12:06pm Jan 28, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting MarcusFire
The chart below shows what I was looking at on Wednesday when I made the call to buy dips for the week. Call was made here, at Steve & Liam's place (soon to be renamed the Jason Memorial Repository of Knowledge ) with a two-hour chart:

http://forum.vsawiki.com/viewtopic.p...tart=140#p6834

But this post isn't about my oh-so amazing longs for the week . . . It's about this thread. I've spent the last two months or so, reading and re-reading this thread. There's some REALLY amazing posts in here! To make it easier, I've...
Don't think people will be able to go to that link unless they are members of the forum.

A couple have signed up since you posted it.

I'd just like to say to the multiple new members on the forum lately, if you're not going to post and you're going to lurk, you're wasting your own time and everyone elses.
  • #23,662
  • Jan 30, 2013 7:59pm Jan 30, 2013 7:59pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Thanks Marcus ..... that is if i am not on our ignore list lol .... I am thinking eu gives a nice run up this year
Hi Malc . . . A couple guys PM'd, and convinced me to take you off the ignore list. Seems like the right move.

This thread misses your touch . . . Can we ask you to post a chart for old time's sake? :nerd:
  • #23,663
  • Feb 4, 2013 7:50am Feb 4, 2013 7:50am
My Dad has recently started a new venture for 2013. I've been setting up the website through Wordpress and his first blog post went live today. I'd really appreciate if any of you could have a look, perhaps even follow the site/blog. We'd really appreciate any comments and criticisms that anyone has as well.

The blog is aimed at dealing with the emotions and psychology that come hand in hand with trading. These areas are addressed through the use of EFT and NLP.

On a personal level i've found it has really helped me over the last few months to get a new perspective on the way i'm handling my trading. I fully believe it can help anyone that is struggling with that side of their trading.

Thanks,

Liam

http://tradingbreakthrough.com/

http://twitter.com/TradingBreak
  • #23,664
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:59am Feb 5, 2013 2:59am
Quoting KinsaleForex
We'd really appreciate any comments and criticisms that anyone has as well.
It is really amazing how our mind works, and how easy it is to manipulate it. 2 parts.

Inserted Video



Inserted Video
  • #23,665
  • Feb 6, 2013 1:42pm Feb 6, 2013 1:42pm
Thought I would introduce myself to the class today. Hey guys. I love me some VSA, and even though many argue that volume, specifically tick volume, is useless and VSA is ineffective, that is just simply not true. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Wanted to share a pic of a trade I took last night and with my amazing MS Paint skills, maybe it will help some of those understand VSA a bit better. It is really important to know the bar setups, no demand, upthrust, buying/selling climax, etc., but the heart of VSA is multi-bar analysis.

Price and volume together should paint a nice picture for you as it continues and as long as you know what to expect, you can get great prices before an advance/decline if you are aggressive (and less risk-adverse), or you can get really good prices with little risk at all.

So my picture. This is a classic Wyckoff distribution pattern. Notice that there was ultrahigh volume on the end of the rally, followed by an automatic reaction (decline) on still very high volume. There is lots and lots of selling going on here. After that, came another rally, which is more of a test than anything. It rallied, it declined, it upthrusted, all the while, volume is slowly sinking. About the green star on the pic is when I saw this happening and started watching it closely.

My entry was very early. Very, very early. After the second test was successful (lower volume), I went ahead and entered after another test on the ice. Once it broke through the ice on high volume, I went to bed cause I knew at that point, it was going to be a good trade. Note on the chart that the push through was on high volume, not ultrahigh volume.

The real entry should have been at the blue X, which is a return to the last source of supply, but I'm in the US and I was tired and had a Dr. appt today. (Gonna try to quit smoking with chantix, wish me luck!) The blue X is almost a no-risk entry because if it breaks back up, then you are probably looking at a head fake and an invalid trade.

If you find an ultra-high buying climax, followed by a strong reaction, a series of SOW's and a very clear support line, then it is unlikely that you will have a bad trade when you see it break through on high volume and come back up to test.

With that said, I wish you guys the best of luck trading and look forward to continuing to read your comments on the markets.
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Currency is a joke. And that's precisely why I trade it.
  • #23,666
  • Feb 6, 2013 7:23pm Feb 6, 2013 7:23pm
Quoting MtDarkness
Thought I would introduce myself to the class today. Hey guys. I love me some VSA, and even though many argue that volume, specifically tick volume, is useless and VSA is ineffective, that is just simply not true. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
.
GL on quitting smoking, hardest thing I ever did. But its worth it, after about 3 or 4 months you will wake up one day and realize that you feel 100 times better. After about 6 months you will realize that food has really has strong flavors and in about a year you will be out in public gagging on by how people smell. (well the last one you will wish you kept smoking )

Welcome to the thread and thanks for the post, you got the right idea of the background but you are a bit off with it.

Your buying climax is not right, remember the spread and the volume will be ultra high with the bar closing off the highs. The BC you marked the spread and volume are narrower than the previous bar. Look at the first bar I marked in yellow, the spread is wider than the previous bars, and the volume is ultra high.

You marked off a test, which test test for supply, they dip down and close on the high with low volume suggesting no sellers are present. The second yellow line is the test I think you are mentioning, which first disagrees with the background and second is not on lower volume. However the cluster of bars that I circled is a 3 bar reversal, basically an UT across 3 bars.

The bar you marked off with the yellow star.. First you may want to check your feed, your feed has that on semi low volume, hard to tell but it still doesn't look like the volume across that bar is less than the previous 2 bars. I run 2 feeds which both of those show that bar has having higher volume than the previous 7 bars. I would not really say that there is a VSA sign here. As well as to me this is a bad place for an entry, for a short entry this is basically trying to pick a top, which is a bad idea, often times VSA can show us the top (distribution) and gives us entries at the top but in the long run it is more profitable for us to leave the tops and bottoms alone.

The orange line is a HV UT, the market has come down from its top this would have been the best entry for this move.
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  • #23,667
  • Feb 6, 2013 7:37pm Feb 6, 2013 7:37pm
It has been a little bit since I have posted a chart so here you go..

EU 12h

Lets start out on 1/1, which was a holiday, we had a SC climax. Now with a 12 chart SC/BC will print and it is not uncommon for price to drift down (in this case of the SC) a few hundred pips or so before we start seeing support. Notice the volume on the climax is quite high, higher than any of the volume since before 11/30.

Next on 1/4 we find support off 3024 and a bit of a push through on 1/7, on 1/9 we see a test back into the support of 3024 and finally absorption volume which pushes us out of this area.

Fast forward a bit, we hit a ton of supply at 3666 and today we find a bit of support at 3480. All speculation of course, you should only follow what you see on your chart, but with today's support we may see a run back up to 3666.
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  • #23,668
  • Edited 9:45pm Feb 6, 2013 9:18pm | Edited 9:45pm
Quoting SimpleDev
GL on quitting smoking, hardest thing I ever did. But its worth it, after about 3 or 4 months you will wake up one day and realize that you feel 100 times better. After about 6 months you will realize that food has really has strong flavors and in about a year you will be out in public gagging on by how people smell. (well the last one you will wish you kept smoking )

Welcome to the thread and thanks for the post, you got the right idea of the background but you are a bit off with it.
Thanks for the well wishes. I think I'll make it this time. Better living through chemistry. lol

As far as the specific bars you pointed out, I completely understand, but I wasn't referring to specific bars, rather the groups of bars the lines were pointing to. I probably should have been more clear about that, I suppose. I really believe that a more broad understanding of PA and volume is necessary to see what is really going on in the market. So when I was pointing out the BC, I meant all of those bars were the BC. Separate, some were really big, but it doesn't make much sense to have a BC then a regular upbar, then a move down. Sorry if I created any confusion with that.

Yeah, I guess a "multibar upthrust" would have been a more appropriate label since noone really uses the phrase "test for demand" (or believes in it, except me). If the TF's had been lined up right, a higher TF would've shown an upthrust, was my point.

Also, I'm not sure what you meant about the best entry. I thought I mentioned that the blue X on the page (same price you marked) was the correct place to get in the market and that my entry was early.

I know about volume issues, though I didn't realize they were affecting me that much. I do compare the volume to the contract volume on the FX futures (where applicable, can't really do USD/XXX pairs unless you turn your monitor upside down, lol) to try to understand what's happening since tick volume can sometimes be skewed. Any suggestions for a US friendly broker that more properly reflects volume on futures would be more than welcome, though. It would be nice to watch on a perpetual demo account, as well, since re-registering each month is counterproductive to paper trading and a pain. XD

Anyhow, I'm still short on that trade, it just broke loose for another move down, so maybe I'll have a bigger account in the AM. I am considering turning this into a swing trade since I am of a mind that this is unlikely to completely stop until well below 1.30, possibly 1.26. Just my speculation, though.

Edit- I see what you meant about the entry. That star on the chart is where I noticed all this happening and began suspecting distributing, not where I entered. I entered after the second push up to resistance and after it held, about 7-8 bars prior to the push through the ice. I should've entered after confirmation, right about where the X is marked. A close above there would've indicated a (very unlikely) false breakout and could've been closed for a very tiny loss.
Currency is a joke. And that's precisely why I trade it.
  • #23,669
  • Feb 8, 2013 5:31am Feb 8, 2013 5:31am
Hi all.

I am a old TradeGuider customer and have many courses and the softwares.
I have both the EOD and RT softwares but I don't use the EOD(end of day).

So, I am selling my EOD software license.

If you are interest in, please let me know and we can arrange a good deal and the license transfer process.

Thank you,
Joao Paulo
  • #23,670
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:42am Feb 8, 2013 7:42am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi all.

I am a old TradeGuider customer and have many courses and the softwares.
I have both the EOD and RT softwares but I don't use the EOD(end of day).

So, I am selling my EOD software license.

If you are interest in, please let me know and we can arrange a good deal and the license transfer process.

Thank you,
Joao Paulo
Just curious, why are you selling?
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,671
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:06am Feb 8, 2013 8:06am
Quoting gez40
Just curious, why are you selling?
Hi Gez40!
It is only because I don't use it anymore.
I bought it when I started trading stocks on a swing basis. And I also bought the RT for intraday forex trading.
As I am not trading for medium term anymore and am only day trading, I am not using it at all.

By the way, I am using the MT4 add-in in my forex day trading. And I am keeping my RT software in case I start to day trade in stocks.

I think the software is great because it reinforces the VSA principles with the signals and the tools build in it, mainly the scanner.

But I don't want sound a salesman here so I have to say that you don't need the software to trade, if you know the principles.
But the software helps a lot with the signals and tools in it.

Let me know if you have interest in it!

Best regards!
  • #23,672
  • Feb 9, 2013 2:05am Feb 9, 2013 2:05am
Quoting malcolmb14
Thanks Marcus ..... that is if i am not on our ignore list lol .... I am thinking eu gives a nice run up this year


Hey Malcolm, great to see you here again. The place has missed you.
I hope things are well in the Malcolm household.
  • #23,673
  • Feb 9, 2013 2:09am Feb 9, 2013 2:09am
Quoting MtDarkness
Thought I would introduce myself to the class today. Hey guys. I love me some VSA, and even though many argue that volume, specifically tick volume, is useless and VSA is ineffective, that is just simply not true. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Wanted to share a pic of a trade I took last night and with my amazing MS Paint skills, maybe it will help some of those understand VSA a bit better. It is really important to know the bar setups, no demand, upthrust, buying/selling climax, etc., but the heart of VSA is multi-bar analysis.

Price...
Hi MtD,

I really like your chart and analysis. You show the general PA and volume interaction very well.
I hope you will post more for us.

Oh and cudos for some good Wyckoff referrals!
  • #23,674
  • Feb 9, 2013 4:17am Feb 9, 2013 4:17am
Quoting malcolmb14
Thanks Marcus ..... that is if i am not on our ignore list lol .... I am thinking eu gives a nice run up this year

Howdy Mal..


Sonic
  • #23,675
  • Feb 9, 2013 6:00am Feb 9, 2013 6:00am
Quoting juhanimi
It is really amazing how our mind works, and how easy it is to manipulate it. 2 parts.
Thanks for the vids juhanimi, i've read a couple of McKenna's books and am a fan.
  • #23,676
  • Feb 10, 2013 12:41am Feb 10, 2013 12:41am
can anyone please tell me what are those ultra wide spread bars (pointed out by arrows) & what do they indicate?

thank you

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-q...20consumer.jpg
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #23,677
  • Feb 11, 2013 2:04pm Feb 11, 2013 2:04pm
Quoting Vcv13
can anyone please tell me what are those ultra wide spread bars (pointed out by arrows) & what do they indicate?

thank you
Hi VCV,

I could be wrong but they look more like data errors to me. (More so the middle two)

What pair is this? So that we can cross check it with our own.
  • #23,678
  • Feb 12, 2013 3:45am Feb 12, 2013 3:45am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Hi VCV,

I could be wrong but they look more like data errors to me. (More so the middle two)

What pair is this? So that we can cross check it with our own.

Thanks for replying.

No, there's no data error, I've verified it.

It is actually a stock listed on an Indian stock exchange. Since this was the only active thread discussing VSA I could find so I posted my query here.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #23,679
  • Feb 12, 2013 5:39am Feb 12, 2013 5:39am
Quoting Vcv13
Thanks for replying.

No, there's no data error, I've verified it.

It is actually a stock listed on an Indian stock exchange. Since this was the only active thread discussing VSA I could find so I posted my query here.
Normally i'd associate such bars with high (or at least higher than it has) volume. But it just isn't the case for this chart. Not really sure how to comment on them. At a glance i'd call the 1st and 4th bars weakness and i'd call the 2nd and 3rd strength.
  • #23,680
  • Feb 12, 2013 6:17am Feb 12, 2013 6:17am
Hmm for the people who use Market Auction Theory together with VSA can you explain to me what is it briefly and why does it help to use it together with VSA? I'm undecided if I should start studying it or not. I don't know much, but what I gather is that the market profile shows the volumes that existed on each price level. But since those volumes can be bullish or bearish (depending on whether we see supply or demand in those zones in a VSA analysis), isn't just seeing what happened based on VSA more useful than to see the total volumes?
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