GAINSY Hottest Forecasts

EU Summit: Leaders Strike A €960 Billion Budget

European Union's 27 member state leaders have found an agreement on a new long-term budget for the next seven years on Friday, presenting 960 billion euros of spending on agriculture, aid, and scientific research in the upcoming period....

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What Did Draghi Actually Say?

We are still scratching our heads over what ECB President Draghi stated at yesterday's press conference and the market's actual reaction. Heading into the press conference there was clearly a level of anticipation over possible remarks on the recent EUR appreciation. In the days running up to the meeting, the...

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EUR Longs Reload For LTRO Fallout

At least the Central Bankers are keeping it interesting. ECBs Draghi happened to do that yesterday. Prior to his press conference, the single unit was in danger of becoming ensnared in a monotonous trading range that was sure to dissuade any fresh investment. Draghi signaling that policy makers are concerned...

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Intraday Statement: Canadian USD Tumbles after Job Data, JPY Rebounded on Aso Comments

Canadian dollar drops sharply in early US session after poor job market data, which showed -21.9k contraction in January versus expectation of 4.0k growth. Unemployment rate decreased to 7.0%. Also released from Canada, trade deficit came in narrower than expected at CAD -0.9b in December. Housing starts decreased to 161k...

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USD/CAD Intraday Forecast

USD/CAD's strong recoil argues that pull back from 1.0099 has completed at 0.9932 already, above 61.8% retracement of 0.9815 to 1.0099 at 0.9923 as expected. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside with focus on 1.0034 and fracture there will confirm our view and target a test on 1.0099. Rise...

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Elliott Wave Forecast: EUR/GBP – Turn long at 0.8400

EUR/GBP – 0.8485

Recent wave: v of wave 3 has possibly ended at 0.8067 but wave 4 should hold below 0.9050

Trend: Up

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Forex Signal Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 93.00

USD/JPY – 92.30

Original strategy :
Sell at 94.50, Target: 93.50, Stop: 94.85

Target: -
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Forex Signal Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3475

EUR/USD – 1.3383

Original strategy :
Sell at 1.3495, Target: 1.3380, Stop: 1.3530

Target: -
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Forex Signal Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9175

USD/CHF - 0.9186

Original strategy :
Buy at 0.9140, Target: 0.9240, Stop: 0.9105

Target: -
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Forex Signal Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3475

EUR/USD – 1.3381

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level :1.3395
Kijun-Sen level :1.3419
Ichimoku cloud top :1.3530
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.3521

Original strategy :
Sell at 1.3475, Target: 1.3380, Stop: 1.3510

Target: -
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Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9175

USD/CHF - 0.9173

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level :0.9171
Kijun-Sen level :0.9160
Ichimoku cloud top :0.9104
Ichimoku cloud bottom :0.9101

Original strategy :
Bought at 0.9175, Target: 0.9275, Stop: 0.9140

Long at 0.9175
Target: - 0.9275
0.9140

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Canadian December Merchandise Trade Deficit Improved

The December 2012 merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $0.9 billion from a revised $1.7 billion shortfall in November (initially reported as a deficit of $2.0 billion) as a decline in imports to $1.1 billion or -2.8% outpaced the monthly decrease in exports (down $0.4 billion or 0.9%). Expectations had been...

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U.S. December Trade Improves More than Expected

The US December 2012 trade deficit improved by more than was expected by dropping to $38.5 billion from $48.6 billion in November, which was revised downward marginally from an originally reported $48.7 billion. Expectations had been for a much more modest improvement to $46.0 billion. The improvement resulted from exports...

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Canadian Housing Starts Post a Larger than Expected Decline to Start 2013

Canadian housing starts decreased by 18.5% to an annualized pace of 160,600 in January 2013 from the revised 197,100 in December 2012 (previously reported as 198,000). This represents the lowest level of new home construction since July 2009. Market expectations were for a modest decline to 195,000 annualized starts in...

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Canadian Labour Market Pauses after Above-Average Employment Gains Recorded in Previous Five-month Period

Canadian employment fell by 21,900 in January 2013, which disappointed the consensus forecast for a 5,000 job increase. The pullback followed five months of above-average increases, which served to temper the blow from January's sharp drop. The unemployment rate inched down to 7.0% from 7.1% in December 2012 as the labour force decreased by 57,500....

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Weekly Focus: Currency War Heats Up

The ECB stops the rise in the euro and interest rates through verbal intervention. Decent start to 2013 in the US despite weak Q4 GDP growth. Mark Carney does not signal major changes at the Bank of England but opened the way for a more flexible inflation target. Bank of Japan governor...

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Did Draghi Call a Top in the Euro?

The so-called currency war stepped up a notch last bank week when the ECB President waded into the debate about the strength of the euro. The single currency has appreciated by nearly 6% since the start of the year, which caused some Eurozone officials, including French President Hollande, to speak out...

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Weekly Stocktaking and Forecast: Markets Turned into Consolidation Mode, Euro Topped, JPY Bottomed in Near Term
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Markets turned into corrective mode last bank week and pared back some of the powerful move made back in January. Comments from central bankers were the main driver that halted the near term trend and triggered the pull backs. Euro were broadly lower after ECB president Draghi mentioned that a strong euro could slow the region's economy. JPY recovered as finance minister Aso said recent decline was too fast. Sterling, recoiled as incoming BoE governor Carney dented speculated of radical changes in monetary policies. Meanwhile, Aussie was weighed down by a dovish RBA monetary policy statement. USD benefited from the move in Euro and closed higher against other major currencies except yen and sterling. The dollar index has indeed closed above 80 psychological level again....

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Daily Statement: Euro Stays Soft on Italy Political Uncertainties
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Euro stays soft as last bank week's correction continues and is weighed down mildly by political situation in Italy. With just two bank weeks ahead of election on February 24-25, former prime minister Berlusconi continued to close the gap with front runner Bersani. And the situation now raises concern that even Bersani could win a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, he might fall short of majority in Senate and could need to ally with Monti. Meanwhile, Berlusconi is still being viewed as a wild card for the election and it's been described by an FT article that a new term for Berlusconi would be a "disaster for Italy". And the FT article warned that Berlusconi is regarded as an "unreliable partner" by European fellows and Italy would risk to be "marginalized. Eurozone leaders will meet in Brussels today on financial aids to Cyprus and Greece...

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Elliott Wave Forecast: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0285
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

AUD/USD – 1.0267

Recent wave: Wave 4 ended at 0.8066 and wave 5 has possibly ended at 1.1081

Trend: Up

Original strategy :
Bought at 1.0285, Target: 1.0450, Stop: 1.0225

Long at 1.0285
Target: - 1.0450
1.0225

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