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  • #16,581
  • Feb 7, 2013 9:01pm Feb 7, 2013 9:01pm
Quoting T@rantula
EURUSD analysis 8th Feb. 2013

The breakout of 3458 led to 3370 and EUR made its stop grabbing pretty heavily. Short entries could be found between 3440-50 level as we have a good confluence of DPP, 38.2 last swing fib and H3 on H1 TF. Also on H4 TF we can see that WS and 38.2 fib and last breakout level make a good resistance around 3465-70 level. That makes a potential good R:R ratio as targets are 3350 and 3325. If EU breaks 3470 1st target is 3496. Pay attention to profit taking tomorrow.

Attachment

You can read...

I wake up and review my chart and guess what ? Same view ,was just say to myself most important point 3465
  • #16,582
  • Feb 7, 2013 9:03pm Feb 7, 2013 9:03pm
Quoting egkid

I wake up and review my chart and guess what ? Same view ,was just say to myself most important point 3465
333 Was my point since we hit 37 but there is something making me not comfortable or not sure it will hit
many guys talk about it and i believe "It's a basic fact of life that many things 'everybody knows' turn out to be wrong."
  • #16,583
  • Feb 7, 2013 10:38pm Feb 7, 2013 10:38pm
Levels for today

Attached Image




Judging fro MM right now s a bit difficile today, because H1 and H4 are at their extremes and about to jump

Target on daily is 3306



Rhythm for the day:


first up, then down, then profit taking (means up towards London closing)



3427-3458 (or pivot at 3448), then down towards 3307 (will at this point not rule out an extended move towards 3266


after that retracements in the support/resistance shelf between 3266 and 3393
  • #16,584
  • Feb 7, 2013 10:56pm Feb 7, 2013 10:56pm
Market Profile (daily)

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may give kind of a choppy ride today to the south

since we broke the POC's of tuesday, monday and the friday before like a hot knife butter yesterday, we should take into consideration a retest of this 3447 to 3456 area in the morning before the move to the south commence

Next virgin POC to the south is @ 3315 with a tight POC's chop zone beforehand


weekly market profile reveals a POC at 3451 to the north and 3355 and 3312 (virgin POC) to the south.

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monthly market profile shows POC's @ 3519 and virgin POC @ 3311

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For me the target is clearly the virgin POC's 3311, 3312, 3315 area
  • #16,585
  • Feb 8, 2013 5:37am Feb 8, 2013 5:37am
So... currently resistance for upside break is 1.3444 and below support for break is 1.3356 which will lead to 1.3317...

probably safer to start weekend now than to watch paint dry
  • #16,586
  • Feb 8, 2013 6:10am Feb 8, 2013 6:10am
Lets see guys I think we could see DPP touch and possible retest later. its been a small range today.
  • #16,587
  • Feb 8, 2013 6:46am Feb 8, 2013 6:46am
If EU drops directly w/o DPP or former WS retest Ill be looking to long around 3325-40 if 3350 breaks.
  • #16,588
  • Feb 8, 2013 6:57am Feb 8, 2013 6:57am
Also we have bearish rectangle on H1. Breakout of 3470 is also a possible strategy.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #16,589
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:53am Feb 8, 2013 7:53am
if my assumption is correct we can see down to 3185 next week... 3365 was penetrated so is vunerable for a break.
  • #16,590
  • Feb 8, 2013 5:23pm Feb 8, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting jaylovin
if my assumption is correct we can see down to 3185 next week... 3365 was penetrated so is vunerable for a break.
I have done a breakout turned into intraday swing trade. 1 position opened at 3368 but I havent closed it. I added to retracement later on 50 fib confirmation and entered again. Completely closed at 3255. We may see a drop next week. Stops are always placed just above 78.6.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: analysis.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #16,591
  • Feb 9, 2013 6:56am Feb 9, 2013 6:56am
Quoting T@rantula
I have done a breakout turned into intraday swing trade. 1 position opened at 3368 but I havent closed it. I added to retracement later on 50 fib confirmation and entered again. Completely closed at 3255. We may see a drop next week. Stops are always placed just above 78.6.

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Good Morning

This is the first time that I have seen or posted on this thread. Most of my postings are at Euroanalysis, the thread started by PipTrapper.

I have been trading Forex for over 9 years and I am a Fundamental Forex Trader using Technicals for good entry and exits.

My EDGE in trading Forex is using MONEYFLOW between the Asset Classes.

I also use the Yields on the 2 year and 10 year US Bonds to determine when the MONEYFLOW is moving with Risk On or Risk Off.

I would like to contribute to this thread if my contribution will be useful. I do not make Trade Calls as things can change in seconds and I would not want anyone to lose because they followed me in a Trade.

I only trade Forex using a Trade Plan and having an excellent Risk Management strategy.

I wish everyone a good and happy weekend.
  • #16,592
  • Feb 9, 2013 8:23am Feb 9, 2013 8:23am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Good Morning

This is the first time that I have seen or posted on this thread. Most of my postings are at Euroanalysis, the thread started by PipTrapper.

I have been trading Forex for over 9 years and I am a Fundamental Forex Trader using Technicals for good entry and exits.

My EDGE in trading Forex is using MONEYFLOW between the Asset Classes.

I also use the Yields on the 2 year and 10 year US Bonds to determine when the MONEYFLOW is moving with Risk On or Risk Off.

I would like to contribute to this thread if my contribution will...
Hello CurrencyMan and welcome to the thread. Its always nice to have experienced traders doing analysis. Trade calls are not obligatory at all so feel free to post your analysis. MM is the most important aspect of trading so Id like to hear from you also on that matter.

Happy weekend to you too
T
  • #16,593
  • Feb 10, 2013 12:35pm Feb 10, 2013 12:35pm
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/02/08...&_LID=76346048

Let's Have A Look...

Snippet:

The benchmark S&P 500 is now only 3.1% below its record high reached in October 2007. Stocks are further getting a big boost today from two key pieces of data: A narrowing U.S. trade deficit combined with very positive earnings from social business networking kingpin, LinkedIn. LinkedIn shares jumped 18.45% this morning on above consensus revenue and earnings. The MAR13 E-mini S&P 500 futures are trading up to new 2013 highs today at +8pts, or +.55%. We continue to hold our belief that the market’s rally is not over by any means, and our next upside target is 1530.


Many analysts are now saying the market is fairly valued, but we think differently, we think like traders, not analysts. We believe in following a trend, regardless of what the market is “supposed” to be doing. Therefore we believe the S&P 500 will continue to rally.






We focus more on the U.S. 30-year bond market today. We have been writing about our bearish views of this market, and we still hold those views. With the stock market rallying to new 2013 highs today, we believe a sharp move down in bond prices will occur soon. Our next major support level for the 30-year bond futures is at 135. This month, this market broke a significant trendline connecting previous tops. It is also trading well below our first key resistance level of 145. With a narrowing trade deficit, a more upbeat Euro region outlook, combined with solid nonfarm payrolls reports recently, we believe the 30-year will indeed approach 135.
http://media.futuresmag.com/futuresm...nd%20chart.png
Click to enlarge.


CurrencyMan:


I follow what the Dow does as it moves up we usually have Risk On and money flows all over to many different Asset Classes. If the Dow headed down say 200 points or more then as Risk Off takes place Assets are sold and turned into US Dollars. Then these US Dollars are used to buy the US Bonds in order to get Yield and Safety.


I follow the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds in my daily trading however the 5 Year US Bonds and the 30 Year US Bonds are part of this equation.


As the US Bonds sell off and the Yields GO UP then the MONEY FLOW is sale of US Dollars into other Risk On Asset Classes.


Please post any questions that you have if this is new to you.


By watching which way the MONEY is Flowing between Asset Classes you can tell where the EUR/USD will go.


There is also CORRELATION among the currencies mainly EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and NOW USD/JPY as Japan is weakening it by turning on the printing presses.


I hope this information is helpful to new readers of my material.
  • #16,594
  • Feb 10, 2013 1:53pm Feb 10, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/02/08...&_LID=76346048

Let's Have A Look...

Snippet:

The benchmark S&P 500 is now only 3.1% below its record high reached in October 2007. Stocks are further getting a big boost today from two key pieces of data: A narrowing U.S. trade deficit combined with very positive earnings from social business networking kingpin, LinkedIn. LinkedIn shares jumped 18.45% this morning on above consensus revenue and earnings. The MAR13 E-mini S&P 500 futures...


Hi CurrencyMan,


nice to see you here :-)



Hmm, risk on/off correlations seem to work until they do not. How do you avoid to get in the wrong direction like at the following dates:


2007.10.12
2008.10.05
2009.11.08
2010.10.31
2011.11.20 (roughly from weekly chart)


black SP500

red EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: correlation.jpg Size: 177 KB
  • #16,595
  • Feb 10, 2013 7:18pm Feb 10, 2013 7:18pm
Analysis EURUSD 11th FEB 2013.

Hi guys he is a quick early bird analysis.

As we could see EU has hit projected 3350 target. Now we can see that BREAKOUT RETRACEMENT is standing at 78.6 support + ROUND number support and we can try to long at 3325-60 area as 88.6 is standing close to it also ( 3315 ). Potential target is 3434 and be aware that today is Monday so we may have a slight consolidation. If EU breaks 3315 3285 is the target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 134 KB


The analysis is also available on my FX BLOG.
  • #16,596
  • Feb 10, 2013 8:46pm Feb 10, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi CurrencyMan,


nice to see you here :-)



Hmm, risk on/off correlations seem to work until they do not. How do you avoid to get in the wrong direction like at the following dates:


2007.10.12
2008.10.05
2009.11.08
2010.10.31
2011.11.20 (roughly from weekly chart)


black SP500

red EURUSD
Good Day

There are other factors at work at times so correlation has to be looked at with an overview of other issues.

When panic hits the msrkets at times there are interventions by central banks.

Look at EUR/CHF now through a chart. This was caused by Long Euro and Short CHF and the start of a currency war.

It is nice to be here and I look forward to interesting discussions and points of view.

Have a good trading week.
  • #16,597
  • Feb 11, 2013 2:19am Feb 11, 2013 2:19am
Quoting CurrencyMan
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/02/08...&_LID=76346048


I follow what the Dow does as it moves up we usually have Risk On and money flows all over to many different Asset Classes. If the Dow headed down say 200 points or more then as Risk Off takes place Assets are sold and turned into US Dollars. Then these US Dollars are used to buy the US Bonds in order to get Yield and Safety.


[i]I follow the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds in my daily trading however the...
Hello CM,

This is interesting stuff to read and it gives the answer to a "1000 times asked question" why is EU moving up on good USD news? I have explained basically many times why is that so and now readers have a clear answer to the question in more detail. Should make it sticky btw
  • #16,598
  • Feb 11, 2013 3:18am Feb 11, 2013 3:18am
3390 is Asian top, thats why I recommend scaling out close to 3390. If 3390 breaks 3407 > 3424 > 3434 the top of London calculation
  • #16,599
  • Feb 11, 2013 3:56am Feb 11, 2013 3:56am
We are close to 3407 MPP, if that breaks we should see 3434. The good thing is, longs have been placed around 3365 per early bird analysis so its a nice profitable Monday.
  • #16,600
  • Feb 11, 2013 8:39am Feb 11, 2013 8:39am
Same analysis as my early one applies to cross session. The only thing i would trade a short scalp is BO trade of 3350 break. All above 3350 is long. Demand zone is diverted 3350-25. Only below 3325-15 could be a sudden outburst to 3285.
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