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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #19,681
  • Feb 7, 2013 11:11am Feb 7, 2013 11:11am
Quoting pkimnyc
here's my 2c.

that's when you understand the underlying concept.

i don't know if the systematical approach that gets spoken here implies merely on "if price is above certain ma then action" or not. just pointing out some downside of blindly following so called "system."
I agree with this one 100 %.
  • #19,682
  • Feb 7, 2013 11:12am Feb 7, 2013 11:12am
Quoting fxrobinhhood
Dear pkimnyc

I agee to some extent but

In my dummy view, being systematic is the only way to find the highest probablity in the market. What eas can't do is applying logic and putting the whole picture together.
An ea can be based on MAs alignment but cannnot consider other factors like retracements, confluences and S&D.
best luck in your journey.
  • #19,683
  • Edited 1:43pm Feb 7, 2013 1:32pm | Edited 1:43pm
Ok Lovebies,
Here are my results and overtrading. It could be different but I lost control again. This is why I consider discipline above every method.

Let me explain how it happens and how this wild behavior and random trading starts.

As usual, my trading starts around LO. Today I didnt open the platform till 5 minutes before LO.

I started looking at only two pairs EU and GU. There wasnt much movement yesterday and there is some news coming plus EBC so movement is certain. I checked Daily H4 and M15 MA as usual. I saw some bullish movement. (Gu was a Ct but I believed it will retrace to 800 ema before going down)
I entered buy on EU and GU.
GU failed but I reentered I believed it was the right direction. I moved sl to +14 for EU.
I put the TP at 800ema for GU as I believed it wil tocuh and may come back. EU stopped out but GU hit TP.
I was calm and done for LO. I closed the platform.

I came back 5 min before NO. Again 2 pairs EU & GU.
EU had reached ADR but could not break it. The candle had closed below 10 ema. In contrast to LO, usually there is no fake out. so bearish must have started. Also Prospect do not seem good for EU and EBC (fundamentally).
I sold EU at NO. (1.3553)
On GU, I was not sure. It could be touch of 800 and still bulish. On the hand, it had passed 800ema and it was pulling back. It was above RN and YH.
I peeked at EG and it was bearish So GU bullish was more probable. I entered long.
Everything was fine. I disobeyed one simple disciplinary rule. I should move sl to BE after price has gone more than 15 pips.
feared the news!
I moved sl to BE early. I got stopped out on the next candle. My GU also hit sl for -16.
My best trade had gone! That is where I lost control and started behaving crazy.
6 more random trades was the result, losing all I had got in the morning. This is how lack of dicipline and losing control blows my accounts.
1. moving sl early 2. not leaving trades after 2 losers.
results attached plus 5 trades which were taken somewhat based on thought and rules.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 21-23-24-GU.png Size: 39 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 22EU+25EU.png Size: 36 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: statement (feb 7).png Size: 46 KB
  • #19,684
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:28pm Feb 7, 2013 6:28pm
Do you know?

This simple method is based on Price Action using the 10EMA on all Timeframes and you must reconcile this in the higher Timeframe when you take a trade decision.

If you still do not know this:
The 10EMA is the same as the 5 period Smoothed MA using the average price, i.e. the average of the 5 period High and Low.
This is what Dean Malone Synergy system Price Action Channel (PAC) is based on.

If you do not know how the PAC is use, you can ask.

If you are still struggling with entry and exits, you consider the use of the 5SMA PAC on your chart.
The use of the TDI remains as your learning wheels until you find the balance with this method and discipline.
You required a certain set of discipline to trade this simple method. When you do not have this set of discipline required, you will not win in long term.

Read post#1 carefully and digest the BASIC SETUP. Highlight those key points in post#1.... and internalise these in your trading process.

Master this BASIC SETUP before you attempt other trade setups like Counter Trend and Bounce setups conditions.

This is Price Action trading and knowing the consistent use of Support and Resistance is very important. You must learn to read market sentiments using Candlestick Patterns and Chart Patterns. You must learn to read price Momentum and Volatility on your chart. It is not so simple blindly setting SL at 15~20pips without knowing the characteristics of the currency pairs. You must learn TIMING when you trade.

For the new traders, forget about the use of ADR until you know what this ADR is and what your broker server time is.
It will be a lot better when you know how to use read market volatility using the ATR data.

Trade Well!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10EMA vs 5SSMA PAC.png Size: 53 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,685
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:03am Feb 8, 2013 1:03am
EU 8 Feb M15:

D PA below 10EMA
H4 PA below 10EMA
M15 look good for BASIC SETUp sell...?
but it is before LO...
so what is the risk?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,686
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:11am Feb 8, 2013 1:11am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EU 8 Feb M15:

D PA below 10EMA
H4 PA below 10EMA
M15 look good for BASIC SETUp sell...?
but it is before LO...
so what is the risk?
The risk is 10pip. Ya, pre-LO prevented me to jump in.
Accept as it is being!
  • #19,687
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:18am Feb 8, 2013 1:18am
Quoting Vnfx
The risk is 10pip. Ya, pre-LO prevented me to jump in.
well, 10pips is your risk to take that trade.
the continuation looks good with very shallow retracement.
but the risk is selling into potential day support - yesterday close, yesterday low and historical S&R 1.3385.
you will need strong selling to break this support.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,688
  • Feb 8, 2013 1:47am Feb 8, 2013 1:47am
Quoting emmanuel7788
well, 10pips is your risk to take that trade.
the continuation looks good with very shallow retracement.
but the risk is selling into potential day support - yesterday close, yesterday low and historical S&R 1.3385.
you will need strong selling to break this support.
what different between potential support & historical S&R???
  • #19,689
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:36am Feb 8, 2013 2:36am
Quoting lowweiting
what different between potential support & historical S&R???
I use the previous Day Open High Low Close as intraday support and resistance....

historical S&R is something that happened in the past (history), which I consider as significant.

is there a lot of difference between the two, it is up to the trader to decide.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,690
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:41am Feb 8, 2013 2:41am
Quoting emmanuel7788
well, 10pips is your risk to take that trade.
the continuation looks good with very shallow retracement.
but the risk is selling into potential day support - yesterday close, yesterday low and historical S&R 1.3385.
you will need strong selling to break this support.
Thanks Emmanuel7788 for your analysis. So, we'd better wait for breakout and retest for safer entry.
Cheers.
Accept as it is being!
  • #19,691
  • Feb 8, 2013 3:18am Feb 8, 2013 3:18am
Quoting Vnfx
Thanks Emmanuel7788 for your analysis. So, we'd better wait for breakout and retest for safer entry.
Cheers.
With that 200pips drop yesterday, I would be very cautious today. The EU Summit just started its in Day 2.

Sometimes, we see technical setup which look very obvious and take the trade. We can have many rules and follow them but still some setup will end up as losing trades. That is why we always trade with a stop loss.

Now looking at EU, it is still in consolidation for several 4-hour periods. It will breakout again, but we do not know which direction.

Trade Well!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,692
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:06am Feb 8, 2013 4:06am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Do you know?

This simple method is based on Price Action using the 10EMA on all Timeframes and you must reconcile this in the higher Timeframe when you take a trade decision.

If you still do not know this:
The 10EMA is the same as the 5 period Smoothed MA using the average price, i.e. the average of the 5 period High and Low.
This is what Dean Malone Synergy system Price Action Channel (PAC) is based on.

If you do not know how the PAC is use, you can ask.


Trade Well!
Thanks emmanuel7788 for your helpfull and easy to understand analysis, as always
  • #19,693
  • Feb 8, 2013 5:28am Feb 8, 2013 5:28am
Quoting pkimnyc
here's my 2c.

that's when you understand the underlying concept.

i don't know if the systematical approach that gets spoken here implies merely on "if price is above certain ma then action" or not. just pointing out some downside of blindly following so called "system."
Agreed, as a guide above/below 200 ema is a good one to follow. Add in SR levels, flow and some other trading basics is what makes the difference.
  • #19,694
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:07am Feb 8, 2013 8:07am
Any help to analyse why
1. First arrow is failed (away from 200EMA) ?
2. Second arrow (CT trade) is sucessful?
Thanks.
Ps. we need only 10pip a day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 8.2.2013.gif Size: 26 KB
Accept as it is being!
  • #19,695
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:18am Feb 8, 2013 8:18am
Quoting Vnfx
Any help to analyse why
1. First arrow is failed (away from 200EMA) ?
2. Second arrow (CT trade) is sucessful?
Thanks.
Ps. we need only 10pip a day.
Why don't you put your thoughts up why.

For now forget about 200 ema. Any other thoughts as to why moves failed, look at immediate flow, other TF's and SR levels.
  • #19,696
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:50am Feb 8, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Vnfx
Any help to analyse why
1. First arrow is failed (away from 200EMA) ?
2. Second arrow (CT trade) is sucessful?
Thanks.
Ps. we need only 10pip a day.
Exactly like what Vantage already mentioned, we must always look at higher TF and also identify signicant historical Support and Resistance. RN 1.2800 is significant S&R.

If you look at H1, PA pullback from Prev D 127%, with two consecutive H1 bullish candles breaking above RN 1.2800. PA Momentum is UP.
Although, the M15 chart shows 10EMA below 200EMA ..., but PA show you something different.
Also, H1 TDI PL is above TSL and just cross above MBL.
TDI M15 is above MBL and MBL is rising

Edit: If you just want 10 pips per day, it is easy. Just scalp the H4 High-Low break.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,697
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:52am Feb 8, 2013 8:52am
Quoting Vnfx
Any help to analyse why
1. First arrow is failed (away from 200EMA) ?
2. Second arrow (CT trade) is sucessful?
Thanks.
Ps. we need only 10pip a day.
first trade: shorted against bullish div both on 15 min and 1hr. nice reversal candles at the bottom on 15 min tf.
  • #19,698
  • Feb 8, 2013 9:18am Feb 8, 2013 9:18am
I sold in peak of trend(where support become to resistant & took 21 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej020813.gif Size: 251 KB
Persian Gulf forever
  • #19,699
  • Feb 8, 2013 9:38am Feb 8, 2013 9:38am
The initial move down was a little early for us. Entry clear, exit when W M2 appeared to be holding after the previous rejection 2 hrs earlier. +46.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #19,700
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:03am Feb 8, 2013 10:03am
Quoting fxrobinhhood
I agree with this one 100 %.
Hi fxrobinhhood,

I thought of telling you that you can test your strategy with the LFH Startegy testerm wich is a backtest softare to test your setups and to train your eyes on the setups, the limitation is you cant change TF and cant select the only hours you want to test.. but you can speed up on the day hours that you not interested to test.

Look in this forum for "simulator" then you be able to speed up your training.

God bless

Helee
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