Higher low, lower high system

1hr upper wicks then engulfing negative closes. These candles are strong and would not count as what we call weak pre/early US CT candles that we avoid trading.

15 min lower high little/no lower wick sell at 1.5750, exit at bounce from S1 for +35.

I took the same trade. Sold GU at 1.5750 and TP1 at 1.5700 TP2 at 1.5650. Both levels were hit.

Saw the LH formed at the Mid figure 50 level and did short it.
couldn't post the chart's as i din't take the snapshots. Will post it from tomorrow.

P.S - I don't use the Indies you are using, so i hope it won't be a issue if i post my chart's.

Nice trade nice exits. No problem that you don't use the same indi's.

Mrs V's back was giving her some stick and she at that stage wanted out. She felt that the rejection of move up (theres a moment coming but its true) meant 1 thing, its going down.Thats the way markets work, same idea as Asian range break if 1 side fails chances high the other side will break.

Just want to say thanks for those that have pm'd with some kind thoughts for Mrs V, suggested medicines or even a dr and hospital reference.

Thankyou so much.

Recap 5 Feb

EUR - Bias was down. We got a doji at W S1 1.3464 and the identified support level that sparked a return to trend.

GU - I had 1hr can go either way its on a higher low and lower high. Bias up but if 1hr falls it will shift short term flow down again. London open took us up then a large upper wick rejecting move above W M3 and 1.5800 followed by a negative close took us lower.

EJ - View was 1hr can easily flip to a higher low here to revert to trend. No bias can go either way, we'll see what London open brings. Reverted to uptrend.

6 Feb

EUR - Positive D close, yesterdays high respected over night. The D positive close should follow through higher, 1hr flow higher high higher low. Is the W pivot 1.3587 at a possible head and shoulders level? Bias up. Failure for that kind of D candle not to go higher should sound some alarm bells.

GU - D engulfing negative close should follow through lower. D and 4hr charts showing divergence, flow lower high lower low. The divergence is a concern, bias down and looking for solid set ups to continue trend.

EJ - Positive D close just about getting to the previously mentioned resistance level 127.77 area. D, 4hr and 1hr showing divergence. Bias up until price action confirms otherwise, even then if we do have a pullback will be looking for signals to resume uptrend.

Yesterday 1st trade ej buy 127.08. 2 large lower wicks on 1hr, often in trending market I suppose this would be a good enough set up. With divergences on D, 4hr and 1hr perhaps not good enough for today. Not closing across the 1hr 8lwma is a bit of an issue. Would I have done differently, I have absolutely no idea, its easy to armchair quarterback. Like I said all you can do is file it away, try and remember to watch out in future, is it a tweak needed or just one of the 25% + or - that don't work out. 1st losing trade this week, she's up 6 trades to 1 so lets not over react hey!!.

2nd trade sell at 126.49 CT. OK she gave it a 2nd chance to go, but when it paused the 2nd time at the low/RN and failed to go lower I would hope to see the exit closer to the low/RN.

Recap 6 Feb

EUR - View was D positive close should follow through higher. Bias up. Failure for that kind of D candle not to go higher should sound some alarm bells. A scrappy day lots of lower wicks after London open then a small fall going into YS session.

GU - Said the divergence is a concern, bias down and looking for solid set ups to continue trend. Scrappy day with the lower support level holding 1.5625.

EJ - Bias was up until price action confirms otherwise, even then if we do have a pullback will be looking for signals to resume uptrend. Like EUR lots of lower wicks around London open then a bit of a fall. The sell divergences played out.

7 Feb

Interest rate day UK and EUR.

EUR - D lower high negative close, appears to show a 4 day reversal pattern. RSI crossed lower. 4hr made a lower high RSI below 50 level. Bias down.

GU - D closed a doji, showing positive divergence RSI still below 50 level. 4hr showing positive divergence and a base forming. Bias up.

EJ - D negative close doji at the resistance level 127.75. D has crossed RSI lower after the divergence. 4hr still on higher high higher low but thats looking like failing. Short term bias down but should flow confirm move up on 1hr with positive close crossing RSI/8lwma would be looking for uptrend to resume.

Being GU EUR interest rate day today there is every likelihood that Mrs V will take the chance to rest up until after the news. So probably no trades this am and we'll see what plays out after.

Hey, Dave, how's things? How's Mrs.V?

The old "H L L H" thread is still rumbling along nicely and that's great to see, me old mate.

I often wonder how all the other bods from acumen's thread are doing, but it's really good to see you, at least, are still trading and still helping others along.

I'm still trading, but I greatly miss the interaction of the thread.

Take care, V and my very best to your better half.

Hi there me ole mate!!

Mrs V, when health permits, is on a good run. Oct, Nov were great, Dec Jan not. Missed half of each of those 2 months with Xmas break and most of the rest with her back issues. This week/month she is on fire, just exited EJ 15 min LH sell for +79 (will post chart later) and sitting on 7:1 win/loss.

As far as I'm concerned for a relative new trader (about 1.5 years) she is going great. Sure has the odd slip here and there but thats where her mentor (me) must keep her on track and focused.

We are trading 15 min charts at the mo, feel free to chuck a chart up if you feel its in the feel of the thread.

The family business is keeping me fully occupied, I'm posting now 'cos my heads gonna explode if I don't take a break.

Keep well.

EJ moved up to the area of the highs in 1 big 15 min candle this morning then spent 4 hrs going nowhere. 1hr engulfing negative close. 15 min lh little/no lower wick in direction of trade. Out at the prev days lows +79.

One thing we need to work on is re-entries when its apparent that it isn't going to reverse.

Recap 7 Feb

Interest rate day UK and EUR.

EUR - Price moved up to the W pivot where it stalled for 4 hours, bias down then played out.

GU - Bias up played out.

EJ - View was short term bias down but should flow confirm move up on 1hr with positive close crossing RSI/8lwma would be looking for uptrend to resume. We did move up at London open, same 4hr stall and fall as EUR.

8 Feb

EUR - D engulfing negative close stopped at the 11-24 Jan resistance level/W M1. 4hr and 1hr lower high lower low flow. Below RSI 50 level on 3 time frames. The only doubt is if the market having absorbed Draghi's comments decides to resume the uptrend. Bias is down move up would need solid price action first.

GU - D has upper wick and RSI crossed up. 4hr and 1hr above 50 level. Bias up.

EJ - Same as EUR, bias down but if the post news comments do not follow through will need solid candle patterns to resume uptrend.

Friday morning so care needed.

Just thought I'd chuck up D charts to show the previously identified SR levels.

Did you take trades in GU or EU yesterday apart form EJ ?

No, Mrs V took a break in the morning.

Head hurts, need a break, coffee and panado in that order.

Mrs V phoned earlier and asked if the ej 1hr hammer was a buy. I said no, its a darn good candle but its just 1 darn good candle, even if its rejecting a prev days low. That does not prove the flow has turned up. If it shot up so be it we would have lost out.

As it is we sold the 15 min lh around 124.45 and she has just said she has exited at +46.

Why sell against the 1hr hammer, well ej has had strong moves even against hammers. The hammer didn't go up and gave a 15 min lh. We sold ready to exit quick if it went against us, looking for move down should we get a proper dble bottom on 1hr. That would be needed to reverse the flow up and look for buys again.

Anyway out at +46 we'll see what US session brings. Post chart later.

PS this one goes down as my call!! But nicely executed Mrs V.

I was wondering how you identify/draw your SR levels?

The high/low of the weekly candle?

Not necessarily W closes.

I look for proven turns in the market. I start with the bodies of closed candles and then accept turn can be an area between body close and wick.

So if bodies of candles 2 months or 2 years ago (eg see where/what caused ej resistance level 127.70 ish) caused a turn its relevant. Candles causing a fall the candle body high. Candles causing move up the body low.

So now I have a SR line based on historical turns. Then if that level holds now and its at the extreme of a wick very close to the same level I might shift the line as needed. Say the historical body SR line is say 20 pips out from a current wick I might move the level in line with wick. Or I might move in line with current candles body.

No absolutely fixed rules as I regard them as general areas that sometimes just happen to be almost to the pip accurate. Its just got to make some sense. It comes down to levels where the market has had a turn and then respected that turn to tweak.

Chart as previously mentioned.

Trade Rules

These rules are very close to ours. I have been asked by someone to help with their trades rules which is not possible. All I can do is say what mine are. These are our bread and butter trades, those that do not comply with this will be very few and far between. They should either have solid logic that we can live with or be part of a trading strategy that we previously used but is not the main focus now.

General

I will trade according to what I identify as the flow of the market. I will analyse EUR, GU, EJ prior to the trading day. I will look to trade the currencies that comply with my analysis. I accept that between the time of my initial analysis and London open circumstances may change and I will take that into consideration.

I will research the methods, currencies and time of day that I choose to trade (20 days each in uptrend/downtrend/sideways markets). This will assist with the background to be comfortable in my method.

Rules

I will:

 

1. do analysis from D, 4hr and 1hr and enter from 15 min and if necessary 1hr candles.
2. look for flow from my 3 higher time frames. Are we above or below 8lwma, has RSI crossed its signal line (8 RSI, 8sma), above or below the RSI 50 level. Do we have engulfing closes or completed candle patterns (higher low/lower high, double top/double bottom, morning/evening star). Big picture trend in line with D, short term counter trend from 4hr/1hr.
3. identify support and resistance levels that can influence the trade
4. look for divergences
5. enter trades from 15 min chart, candles that open and close opposite side of 8lwma or test the 8lwma
6. always use stops, a few pips beyond the last swing high/low. Typically 15-25 pips on EUR and GU, 25-35 for EJ.
7. assess exits depending on range of the day, typically at support/resistance levels, psych levels and pivots.
8. look to trade at three main times around London open, pre/early US and post US news
9. trade at other times only if past analysis supports this e.g EJ during late Asian session/pre Frankfurt open
10. trade with the trend as identified by higher time frame analysis and buy above/sell below 200 ema on 15 min. This ema is a guide and price action must support each decision. Above/below any ema will never make it a trade, proper analysis does.
11. trade counter trend from proven support and resistance levels and W pivots. Only when price has proven over a period of several hours that it does not want to continue in trend (specifically not 1 x 1hr candle). I will look to assess divergences and candle engulfing closes for patterns (higher low/lower high, double top/double bottom, morning/evening star) on 1hr that by their very definition require several hours to complete.
12. accept system compliant losses as the risk of doing business. I will critically assess each loss for mistakes in execution or for possible improvements to methods. I will not accept none system losses (or none system wins) and will strive to avoid repeating errors. I fully believe Discipline is the Bridge Between Goals and Accomplishments. None system trades will not get me to my goals.

These are the general trade rules I follow, amend them to fit your trading circumstances.