Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Hi ITME,

Your trade of short GBP/USD at 1.8590 w/o stop loss printed .
Where is the stop loss level? Or you implied no stop needed.
Thanks.

Sorry, Newbie, we forgot to include the stop loss on this trade proposal. There must always be a stop loss going into a trade, otherwise the risk is infinite, and eventually you will be exterminated.

One cannot talk sensibly of a low risk, high reward trade without a limited risk. The only way to limit risk is to have a set stop that is irrevocable before entering the trade.

"This is an ideal low risk, high reward short trade opportunity, with a target of 1.8450." This statement includes the idea of "low risk" relative to the size of the reward. So a stop of max. 40 pips needs to be on virtually any worthwhile trade, unless the reward is huge and the certainty level very, very high. Then a slightly higher stop might be needed in some cases. It depends on the currency pair and the situation.

Our short term target for the above trade is 1.8530, at which time we suggest exiting the trade and reassessing the situation pending possible re-entry. This will provide 60 pips of movement, and approximately 55 pips of profit depending on the spread.

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET

TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75

If anyone holds a short position on GBP/JPY then we advise a stop of 211.08

Thousands of analysts all over the world are staring at the wedge formation on this pair that has been in formation for 40 days.

If it breaks out downwards, as we suspect it will, then the movement will be very strong and go far. Our first downwards target is 208.75, 200 pips below the entry price.

Likewise, if it breaks out upwards above the 211.60 trendline, then there will be a very strong upwards movement. Our first upwards target is about 213.50, almost 200 pips above the breakout line.

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET

TS#90 Sell USD/JPY at 113.71

When we spotted the triple top in a wedge formation, and the double top over a one hour period, we decided to short this pair. We consider this to be a plausible, though not certain trend completion point. In terms of Elliott Wave theory, this would be a failed fifth wave.

There are also five separate prime quantum target lines convergent at this particular point, which is a very optimistic sign. Also, because of the particular formation we could enter a trade with very small risk and large upside potential. A stop at just 113.79 is protected by half a dozen of our trendlines.

Stop is 113.79

Target is 111.75

Risk is 12 pips

Reward is 192 pips

Reward / risk ratio is 16 to 1

For research purposes only.

Hi ITME,

Your usd/jpy got stop out .
Can you issue a new trade ? Re-entry with 60 pip stop loss is ok
as you suggested?

Thursday 6/8/2006 3:30 ET

The original trade signal was stopped out. It was a long shot, but the reward / risk ratio of 16:1 was attractive. The total loss including spread was only 12 pips. The following is a medium confidence trade signal. There is now a proper fifth wave, so the likelihood of success is much greater.

TS#90A Re-entry - Sell USD/JPY at 113.90 - 114.00

Stop is 114.21

Target is 111.85

Risk is max. 35 pips

Reward is min. 201 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.7 to 1

_____________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET
TS#90 Sell USD/JPY at 113.71
When we spotted the triple top in a wedge formation, and the double top over a one hour period, we decided to short this pair. We consider this to be a plausible, though not certain trend completion point. In terms of Elliott Wave theory, this would be a failed fifth wave. There are also five separate prime quantum target lines convergent at this particular point, which is a very optimistic sign. Also, because of the particular formation we could enter a trade with very small risk and large upside potential. A stop at just 113.79 is protected by half a dozen of our trendlines.
Stop is 113.79
Target is 111.75
Risk is 12 pips
Reward is 192 pips
Reward / risk ratio is 16 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/8/2006 4:30 ET

TS# 91 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8470 - 1.8490

Stop is 1.8465

Target #1 is 1.8615
Target #2 is 1.8675

Risk is max. 30 pips

Reward (T#1) is min. 115 pips
Reward (T#2) is min. 180 pips

Reward : Risk is min. 3.8 to 1 (T#1) and 6 to 1 (T#2)

For research purposes only.

Is this a sell signal or a buy signal? The profit target seems off for a SELL signal.

Thursday 6/8/2006 6:15 ET

A second opportunity to short USD/JPY at 113.90 - 113.95 has arisen, for those who missed the first chance.

_____________________________________________-

Original trade signal:

The original trade signal was stopped out. It was a long shot, but the reward / risk ratio of 16:1 was attractive. The total loss including spread was only 12 pips. The following is a medium confidence trade signal. There is now a proper fifth wave, so the likelihood of success is much greater.
TS#90A Re-entry - Sell USD/JPY at 113.90 - 114.00
Stop is 114.21
Target is 118.85
Risk is max. 35 pips
Reward is min. 201 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.7 to 1
For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/8/2006 6:45 ET

TS# 92 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2250 - 1.2255

Stop is 1.2263

Target #1 is 1.2160
Target #2 is 1.2140
Target #3 is 1.2125

Risk is max. 17 pips

Reward (T#1) is min. 86 pips
Reward (T#2) is min. 106 pips
Reward (T#3) is min. 121 pips

Reward : Risk is min. 5.0 to 1 (T#1) and 6.2 to 1 (T#2) and 7.1 to 1 (T#3)

For research purposes only.

this my 1st time to see this signals... i have question all this signals works?

and r u sure about : TS# 91 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8470 - 1.8490

Thanx, please replay.

I guess nobody can be sure

I think you shouldn't follow what is written if you personaly are nor convinced of it.

Is just a hint.

Is also written: For research purposes only.

Thanx Mate

I can tell you that often if you follow somebody you loose...
not because he can't be right, but because from the moment a signal or hint is given and the moment you decide, things can change, and maybe who gave the signal is able to catch the change but you will know too late.

I suggest you to think with your head, ofcourse listen to everybody, but the final decision is yours.

Sometimes we don't see good trades unless somebody gives a hint, but 50% of the choise must be yours.

If you are not sure, stay out

My broker gives a lot of suggestions...but I can tell you that 70% of times are wrong..
maybe I should do the opposite of what they say

LOL, Yea nice idea

Thursday 6/8/2006 10:00 ET

TS#93 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.2730 - 2.2735

Stop is 2.2742

Target #1 is is 2.2620
Target #2 is is 2.2565

Risk is max. 27 pips

Reward is min. 95 pips / 150 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 3.5 to 1 (T#1) and 5.5 (T#2)

For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/8/2006 13:15 ET

TS#94 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1240 - 1.1250

Stop is 1.1265

Target #1 is is 1.1100
Target #2 is is 1.1040
Target #3 is is 1.0935

Risk is max. 30 pips

Reward is min. 135 / 195 / 300 pips (T1, T2, T3)

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.5 to 1 (T#1) and 6.5 (T#2) and 10 to 1 (T#3)

For research purposes only.

If most of these signals worked, then one could employ them to gain extravagant wealth in a few days. If one faithfully followed our first 39 trade signals employing a 25% risk factor, $1000 would have grown to $15 million. However, maybe we were just influenced by beginners luck. Since then, we haven't tabulated the results.

Thanks for your comment, MaXeY, as follows:

" Thanx for sharing
this my 1st time to see this signals... i have question all this signals works?
and r u sure about : TS# 91 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8470 - 1.8490
Thanx, please replay."

Your comment is very apt. That trade signal did not work. But if one had entered at the best price, and had a good broker that charged only 3 pips spread, then one would have lost 8 pips.

If one had entered at the worst price, and paid 5 pips spread, one would have lost 30 pips.

My suggestion - enter only sensible trades. Find a good broker that charges small spreads. Enter trades at the optimum price, especially if the trade is iffy. Losing 8 pips to get a chance of earning 200 is the essence of this experiment. If we are correct only 30% of the time, our account will grow at an astronomical rate.

Conduct yourselves accordingly, traders!

Yesterday, 15:28

Fabulous short opportunity on GBP/USD at 1.8590

GBP/USD just retraced quickly 60 pips on the C of an ABC Wave 4 correction to 1.8590

This is an ideal low risk, high reward short trade opportunity, with a target of 1.8450.

_______________________________

Later on, under the influence of short term insanity, we issued a signal to go long on GBP/USD. However, we only proposed risking 8 pips min. on this proposition. The currency was bouncing off of a long term trend line and there was a reasonable chance that it would have headed north. It didn't. The original analysis held good. We learnt something. That's what this experiment is for.