Are traders herded like cattle? | Forex Factory

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Are traders herded like cattle?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 2:58pm Feb 4, 2013 2:40pm | Edited 2:58pm
About two months ago my wife and I moved to a cattle ranch in Texas. We'll be there until April or May while our home is being remodeled. The spread is 225 acres, pretty big. It would take hours to walk around it's edge. But you wouldn't likely do that 'cause there's creeks and dense forest on one side.

"Workin' cattle" is something I witnessed last month. I noticed how the ranch hands and cattle behaved. "Maybe it's true we traders get worked like a herd," I thought.

So here's what I saw. Maybe we can see similarities with trading and learn somethin'.

First, two or more riders go out to herd the cattle. They walk them slowly. It takes a while. I repeat, it takes a while.

The cattle pretty much mingle in a group. So finding them isn't too hard. The riders nudge the herd along a fence line. Occasionally a steer gets rambunctious and tries to stray. A rider moves to coax the stray back to the herd. The horse must be trained in this or there could be injury.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ranch Hand.JPG Size: 159 KB


Next Episode: Bringing Cattle Into A Pen
  • #2
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:09pm Feb 4, 2013 6:09pm
Sure are. Try to trade a different style outside the norm and see how you are attacked.
  • #3
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:22pm Feb 4, 2013 6:22pm
Eventually those herded cattle get slaughtered.
The smart ones look for a hole in the fence
  • #4
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:25pm Feb 4, 2013 6:25pm
Quoting lasty
Eventually those herded cattle get slaughtered.
The smart ones look for a hole in the fence
The real smart ones never get fenced in.
  • #5
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:47pm Feb 4, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
The real smart ones never get fenced in.
so true
  • #6
  • Feb 4, 2013 7:08pm Feb 4, 2013 7:08pm
Nothing personal......but it hurts to read that. I am guessing you haven't been around horses and cattle much.

I spent 12 years in working cattle,roping and training horses.

You may never want to go back when the house is done. I know I sure miss it.

Oh! very nice place in the pic.
  • #7
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:45pm Feb 4, 2013 11:45pm
My question is who is the herder and who exactly are the cattle? Penny stocks are a great place to look into this. You have a ring of guys who buy up a penny stock throughout a long time, making sure price doesn't go up. Then, they release something about it, get price going up a little so that when the fish jump in, the guys have their liquidity to get out of their positions. (something like that)
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #8
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:29am Feb 5, 2013 12:29am
Quoting GnarlyPips
My question is who is the herder and who exactly are the cattle? Penny stocks are a great place to look into this. You have a ring of guys who buy up a penny stock throughout a long time, making sure price doesn't go up. Then, they release something about it, get price going up a little so that when the fish jump in, the guys have their liquidity to get out of their positions. (something like that)
pump and dump if you know what to look for easy money to be made.... i worked with cattle for a few years. i was a supervisor of a 1400 cow dairy farm i believe traders are herded i used to pull tricks on the cows to get them to go where i wanted them all the time just as switched on traders do to uninformed traders.

WENDIGO
  • #9
  • Feb 5, 2013 1:03am Feb 5, 2013 1:03am
Quoting wendigo
pump and dump if you know what to look for easy money to be made.... i worked with cattle for a few years. i was a supervisor of a 1400 cow dairy farm i believe traders are herded i used to pull tricks on the cows to get them to go where i wanted them all the time just as switched on traders do to uninformed traders.

WENDIGO
Can you provide more information as to why you believe what you believe? Who are switched on traders and who are the uninformed? Do the uninformed traders really have that much money for the switched on traders to want to take from them? How do they know where they are at?

From my understanding, the two don't interact at all. Switched on traders in my view would be professional traders, people who work for a firm or bank and have clients and whatnot. Uninformed traders would be retail traders, as a lot of them blindly follow indicators and patterns and fib numbers and never question why. Retail brokers also actively match orders in house as to control their exposure, so the liquidity from retail traders just isn't worth it, in my opinion, to those who regularly deal in millions.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #10
  • Feb 5, 2013 1:12am Feb 5, 2013 1:12am
Are traders herded like cattle?

Absolutely, yes.
The survival of the industry depends on it.
That is it depends on people LOSING. Therefore everything that you hear, read and eventually think will contribute to your being part of the herd.
  • #11
  • Feb 5, 2013 1:35am Feb 5, 2013 1:35am
It's not just traders.. it's the entire human race.. if you can put an idea into the minds of a billion people, they will all react in a similar fashion. if nasa says there is a comet headed our way and were all dead in 12 hours.. what do you think the majority of people will do ?


"the smart ones don't get fenced" .. i love that.. perfect way to put it
  • #12
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:25am Feb 5, 2013 2:25am
Spot on we are herded like cattle and the entire game is about manipulating our beliefs and preying on our greed and fear.

Who is "we"? Retail traders, weak holders.
Who is herding? Big money - Market makers, big institutions, prop shops etc...

This is the foundation to trading by the market makers business model some of you may heard of. The market moves arent random and chaotic, they are quite deliberate and repetitive. The trick is knowing how to see them in the right way.

If you can train yourself to see it how the big money sees it, and how the masses are herded into thinking one thing and then go in one direction, only to be blindsided and totally manipulated and deceived into the way things are really going, all the while having our beliefs and emotions toyed with like a cat and a mouse to get us to take the action they want us to take - well then you will be able to make the big bucks like they do

Im trying to, still not easy, but thats the game to be played.
  • #13
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:38am Feb 5, 2013 3:38am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Can you provide more information as to why you believe what you believe? Who are switched on traders and who are the uninformed? Do the uninformed traders really have that much money for the switched on traders to want to take from them? How do they know where they are at?

From my understanding, the two don't interact at all. Switched on traders in my view would be professional traders, people who work for a firm or bank and have clients and whatnot. Uninformed traders would be retail traders, as a lot of them blindly follow indicators and patterns...
the whole reason the foreign exchange was opened to retail traders was to add to the liquidity. switched on players use uninformed players to get a better price on there orders EVERY DAY. so the 2 do interact on a daily basis even if you dont know realize it. false breaks if its bullish they are selling into it. news trade big spike down they are buying it its that simple why else would they need us?

WENDIGO
  • #14
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:33am Feb 5, 2013 8:33am
Quoting wendigo
the whole reason the foreign exchange was opened to retail traders was to add to the liquidity. switched on players use uninformed players to get a better price on there orders EVERY DAY. so the 2 do interact on a daily basis even if you dont know realize it. false breaks if its bullish they are selling into it. news trade big spike down they are buying it its that simple why else would they need us?

WENDIGO

Do you honestly believe the retail traders can actually provide liquidity for a major bank? Foreign exchange was opened up to retail because of spreads making it a viable business. The banks have always been hunting for better targets for centuries, beyond foreign exchange.

Also, what's a false break?

Also, why would they need up in the first place if we weren't there for the most part?
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #15
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:23pm Feb 5, 2013 2:23pm
After the cattle are herded into a pen, it is time to get some into the shoot. The cattle must know what's coming next. They don't want to go into the shoot. The cattle circle in a group. The ranch hands coax a few away from the group and towards the shoot. Those cattle bump, run, bellow, and hustle back to the group.

After a dozen or so repeats of this, a few finally enter the shoot. It's pretty dangerous work for the riders and ranch hand on the ground. He holds out poles and somehow convinces the cattle he is a barrier.

Any trading corollaries here?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cattle in Pen 2.JPG Size: 158 KB
  • #16
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:02pm Mar 13, 2013 10:02pm
Quoting nanningbob
Sure are. Try to trade a different style outside the norm and see how you are attacked.

Hows your penny ante trading going Bob?? Up to nickles yet?

LMAO.......
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #17
  • Mar 21, 2013 8:13pm Mar 21, 2013 8:13pm
Quoting rehorst
After the cattle are herded into a pen, it is time to get some into the shoot. The cattle must know what's coming next. They don't want to go into the shoot. The cattle circle in a group. The ranch hands coax a few away from the group and towards the shoot. Those cattle bump, run, bellow, and hustle back to the group.

After a dozen or so repeats of this, a few finally enter the shoot. It's pretty dangerous work for the riders and ranch hand on the ground. He holds out poles and somehow convinces the cattle he is a barrier.

Any trading corollaries...
hook'm horns...
  • #18
  • Last Post: Mar 25, 2015 8:07am Mar 25, 2015 8:07am
First of all: Its interesting to find paralells between behaviour, trading and something else, like you are doing here. At first i come to think that there are quite a few institutions weilding the big money, so the herd is actually pretty small. Secondly i think that the retail traders, from what i know, pretty much act as a herd. They are being steered by what they believe to be "what is going on". But since they dont really think, others do they thinking, and so they continue to be misled. I would say 95% of the information on this site is very easy to prove false for anyone looking at the evidence. People dont look at the evidence, intstead they are being herded. And so they loose. In a way they cows loose too, in the end they are slaughtered. But its not all crap for them, depending on how they are kept, with a big pasture i would say they have a comparitvely good life. For a cow.

There are LOTS of different kinds of people. In a way people are a lot different from each other then cows are. This is because of our so called "intelligence". People have a big host of different reactions to situations, depending on how they view the world, and they view the world quite differentely from each other. If we take cows or sheep, they are pretty much the same because theyre intelligence and its limits dictates this. All cows and sheep will eat green stuff that smells about "OK". They will take a dump and they will want to fuck. If you compare to humans, some go and eat crap that some animals wouldnt eat, some eat really good stuff. Some dont want to fuck (dont ask me why) and some think about fucking all the time.

But then to come back full circle and argue against my own point here: People ARE pretty much like cattle. Just put them in a big enclosure and fire off a warning shot and the following movements can be calculated in pretty much the same manner as you would calculate the movements of rabbits in similar circumstances. People ARE pretty much like cattle because for some reason people tend to do what the one close to them do: People who grow up rich get the habits of the rich, people who grow up poor gets the habits of the poor. In general that is.
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