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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #19,601
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:31am Feb 5, 2013 8:31am
My two other trades this NO.
Not exactly classical setup.

Eu sell, HTF seems still bearish to me so entered a bit early as I do not wanna allow more than 15 pips sl.

PA is bouncing 200 ema and it is below 10.

GU, HTF clearly bearish to me. PA rallied and then tehre was a pullback. The pullback did not respect fibo level 61.8 and 50. In such cases I believe it is reversing. So I entered sell. Perhaps a bit late, though.

Both trades are moved to BE but do not know where to take profit as I didnt analyze that part.

here are the charts.

I apreciate yr commets.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-GU.png Size: 28 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10-EU.png Size: 31 KB
  • #19,602
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:32am Feb 5, 2013 8:32am
Quoting fxrobinhhood
Alright here are my trades this NO.

First my failed GA.
I took a buy on GA just 1 candle before NO.
Reason=
GA seems on an uptrend
It has rallied from LO, hit the ADR high and passed. It is common for GA to pass much above or below teh range, as I ve noticed.
There was a pull back to 61.8 fibo before newyork open.
It conitued up, closed above 10 ema before NO. All ema were lining up so I entered just at that time.
but it failed.
I do not see the reason why.
Can somebody help? I appreciate seniors commments as always.
BTW, TDI was...
Look at those upper wicks in the consolidation phase....

Your buying right at a fresh supply level that just formed.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #19,603
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:47am Feb 5, 2013 8:47am
Quoting fxrobinhhood
Thanks buddy. Your comments is very helpful and valuable to me.


2. So u mean you get in for 20 pips with a sl of 20 as well? or did Tp was more and you just closed it?

sorry for my dummy Q
I use the Quik_Trailing EA for trade management which set to default 20pip SL vs 20pip TP. Then after entry, depending on the situation I may close it manually or extend the profit target or tighten the SL, etc. In this trade I see 20pip TP is also on 50EMA so I think it's reasonble and didn't move it.

Hope this help.
Accept as it is being!
  • #19,604
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:54am Feb 5, 2013 8:54am
Quoting fxrobinhhood
My two other trades this NO.
Not exactly classical setup.

Eu sell, HTF seems still bearish to me so entered a bit early as I do not wanna allow more than 15 pips sl.

PA is bouncing 200 ema and it is below 10.

GU, HTF clearly bearish to me. PA rallied and then tehre was a pullback. The pullback did not respect fibo level 61.8 and 50. In such cases I believe it is reversing. So I entered sell. Perhaps a bit late, though.

Both trades are moved to BE but do not know where to take profit as I didnt analyze that part.

here are the charts.

I...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360074606

GU:
There was a CONFLUENCE of 800EMA, Rn 1.5800 and Prev D fib-r 127% ... a commom intrday failure at 127% will resulst in price revesre back into the previous day range.
Always look at H1 (inside bar) and H4 (pin bar) for PA CS pattern to support a SELL setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 5 Feb Triple Screen.png Size: 71 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,605
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:01am Feb 5, 2013 9:01am
Thanks for the help and support you

Quoting emmanuel7788

Good trade.
You use the TDI divergence very well to support this trade setup.
Always be patient when the TDI PL goes out of the VB and re-enters the VB... look for PA continue to rise but the TDI PL does not rise in tandem. Wait for divergence condition and PA to cross the 10EMA.

I LIKE .
Persian Gulf forever
  • #19,606
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:10am Feb 5, 2013 9:10am
Quoting fxrobinhhood
Alright here are my trades this NO.

First my failed GA.
I took a buy on GA just 1 candle before NO.
Reason=
GA seems on an uptrend
It has rallied from LO, hit the ADR high and passed. It is common for GA to pass much above or below teh range, as I ve noticed.
There was a pull back to 61.8 fibo before newyork open.
It conitued up, closed above 10 ema before NO. All ema were lining up so I entered just at that time.
but it failed.
I do not see the reason why.
Can somebody help? I appreciate seniors commments as always.
BTW, TDI was...
cross pairs are difficult to trade even to experienced players. you need to understand it's characteristics. what kind of swings to expect. when it's stuck in consolidations, how much does it move in average. be able to identify those consolidation zones... and etc.

until you understand these, i would recommend to stay away from cross pairs and just stick to major pairs.
  • #19,607
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:15am Feb 5, 2013 9:15am
Quoting fxrobinhhood
My two other trades this NO.
Not exactly classical setup.

Eu sell, HTF seems still bearish to me so entered a bit early as I do not wanna allow more than 15 pips sl.

PA is bouncing 200 ema and it is below 10.

GU, HTF clearly bearish to me. PA rallied and then tehre was a pullback. The pullback did not respect fibo level 61.8 and 50. In such cases I believe it is reversing. So I entered sell. Perhaps a bit late, though.

Both trades are moved to BE but do not know where to take profit as I didnt analyze that part.

here are the...
regarding euro,

price took a bounce at london. no one knows if the bounce is genuine or not, at least not yet.

some entry points could have been spotted at the bottom if you know what to look for.

you want to stick to arjun rule and be able to trade what may have been a counter, that's fine... but isn't that where price is stuck between 2 large mas that you took a trade? hence there was no trade going by the system rules?

no comments on cable from my end.
  • #19,608
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:30am Feb 5, 2013 9:30am
Quoting emmanuel7788
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360074606

GU:
There was a CONFLUENCE of 800EMA, Rn 1.5800 and Prev D fib-r 127% ... a commom intrday failure at 127% will resulst in price revesre back into the previous day range.
Always look at H1 (inside bar) and H4 (pin bar) for PA CS pattern to support a SELL setup.

Thanks emanuel for your hint. great to learn that. I must also review those IB examples by you in the thread. got to learn it well.
  • #19,609
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:32am Feb 5, 2013 9:32am
Quoting Xhale12
Look at those upper wicks in the consolidation phase....

Your buying right at a fresh supply level that just formed.
Thanks. I should have look at that as well. I will try to put the whole picture together btu still forget sime jigsaw pieces.
  • #19,610
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:34am Feb 5, 2013 9:34am
Quoting pkimnyc
cross pairs are difficult to trade even to experienced players. you need to understand it's characteristics. what kind of swings to expect. when it's stuck in consolidations, how much does it move in average. be able to identify those consolidation zones... and etc.

until you understand these, i would recommend to stay away from cross pairs and just stick to major pairs.
I lost control and entered that GA again. This time sell failed. luckily didnt move sl (-15) You are right. I do not know the pair enough.
Thanks for your advice. I will try to avoid those crosses.
  • #19,611
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:48am Feb 5, 2013 9:48am
Quoting pkimnyc
regarding euro,

price took a bounce at london. no one knows if the bounce is genuine or not, at least not yet.

some entry points could have been spotted at the bottom if you know what to look for.

you want to stick to arjun rule and be able to trade what may have been a counter, that's fine... but isn't that where price is stuck between 2 large mas that you took a trade? hence there was no trade going by the system rules?

no comments on cable from my end.
yeah you are right. I just didnt pay attention to that as I said above. Still trying to put the pic together. I know I am not good at it but I am getting better. If I can have discipline, the mistakes do not cause great losses and account burning and pschological trauma as a result.

That is why I am currently more concerned about psycho and discipline than system rules.

Thanks for teh help, buddy.
  • #19,612
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:04am Feb 5, 2013 11:04am
Ok everybody.
here is my trade results for today. Thanks to your help and tips, I could practice some discipline, learn some new points and recover almost my losses made earlier today.

I'm done for the day as Im not gonna enter this late and I have had too many tardes based on rules. My pips result below and statement attached.

----------------- LO
-18=GU sell
-29=EU sell
-15=GU sell
-16=GA buy
------------------NO
+10=EU sell
- 15=GA sell
+1 = EU sell
+74= GU sell
------------------
total----------- +92-85 = -7

It could be less loss and more proft. If I had followed my rules more strictly, even same tardes could be -55 and +150 pips.
so I would say discipline, discipline, discipline!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: statement2(feb5).png Size: 24 KB
  • #19,613
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:08am Feb 5, 2013 11:08am
Quoting fxrobinhhood
Ok everybody.
here is my trade results for today. Thanks to your help and tips, I could practice some discipline, learn some new points and recover almost my losses made earlier today.

I'm done for the day as Im not gonna enter this late and I have had too many tardes based on rules. My pips result below and statement attached.

----------------- LO
-18=GU sell
-29=EU sell
-15=GU sell
-16=GA buy
------------------NO
+10=EU sell
- 15=GA sell
+1 = EU sell
+74= GU sell
------------------
total----------- +92-85 = -7

It could...
that's just way too many pairs to focus all at once imo... way too many trades in one day.
  • #19,614
  • Feb 5, 2013 11:48am Feb 5, 2013 11:48am
Quoting pkimnyc
that's just way too many pairs to focus all at once imo... way too many trades in one day.
3 pairs to monitor. couldnt make it less. and the tardes were beuz of losing control and tempatation.

BTW, could you tell why GU and GA are going down at this time like crazy????

I'm really perplex and a bit upset atht I couldnt ride it. But any way, I cant understand it as there is no news or meeting.
  • #19,615
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:01pm Feb 5, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting fxrobinhhood
3 pairs to monitor. couldnt make it less. and the tardes were beuz of losing control and tempatation.

BTW, could you tell why GU and GA are going down at this time like crazy????

I'm really perplex and a bit upset atht I couldnt ride it. But any way, I cant understand it as there is no news or meeting.
you gotta be able to monitor what's going on in higher tfs as well.

as far as cable goes, i can only speak in tech terms.

whatever the fundamental reasons behind the drop is some other's issues.

momentum in weekly has been to the down side for at least a month now...

daily, trends been down with a momentum support.

4hr, same thing... trend down momentum south.

1hr, trend down, big move on friday, monday retracement. big rejection at 5800 with divergence.

15 min, pretty much the same case with 1hr. resistance at 5800 area.

looks like you caught the move. some parts at least. congrats.
  • #19,616
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:08pm Feb 5, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting pkimnyc
you gotta be able to monitor what's going on in higher tfs as well.

as far as cable goes, i can only speak in tech terms.

whatever the fundamental reasons behind the drop is some other's issues.

momentum in weekly has been to the down side for at least a month now...

daily, trends been down with a momentum support.

4hr, same thing... trend down momentum south.

1hr, trend down, big move on friday, monday retracement. big rejection at 5800 with divergence.

15 min, pretty much the same case with 1hr. resistance at 5800 area.

looks like you...
HTF MOMENTUM RULES!
  • #19,617
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:18pm Feb 5, 2013 2:18pm
FXRobin hood

Lok at what VNFX is showing you, it is a much stronger case because of CONFLUENCE and S/R. It is not 'perfect/classic' but the learning is putting all the signals together. the high price just before entry, which the bars just touched is alsoexactly 50% retrace of the downmove, as well as the ADR . It is between the MAs which makes it weak, maybe quick scalp. (Ideally don't trade between MAs unless there is a LARGE gap and then it CT)

Using hindsight to see what happened on an hourly you will see that the pa bounced down off the 50% retrace of the big move down, then bounced up of the BRN and through that 50% point (with MAs now aligned on the one hourly, looking for a good setup now.

If in doubt WAIT :-)

Re the Y/Day low, there does seem to be a discrepency with your low and indicator. I sugest use the indicator, then check if market respects it or not. (then might need to adjust time setting)
P

Quoting fxrobinhhood
Dear Vnfx,
Thanks for the chart and the help. Would u please help me 2 with 2 things?
first, if we consider this a classical setup, what about being between 200 ema and 800 ema?

second, where would you exacyly enter with 15 pips sl?

BTW, I'm in the same trade and I will upload my chart shortly.
  • #19,618
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:27pm Feb 5, 2013 2:27pm
FXRobihood, as Pkimynyc said 'way to many trades'
Don't practice discipline DO discipline :-) internalise it

Don't take a trade unless it is near perfect set up , yu can afford to lose a few mediocre trades, imo u may need to learn to NOT take a trade :-)


Quoting fxrobinhhood
Ok everybody.
here is my trade results for today. Thanks to your help and tips, I could practice some discipline, learn some new points and recover almost my losses made earlier today.

I'm done for the day as Im not gonna enter this late and I have had too many tardes based on rules. My pips result below and statement attached.

----------------- LO
-18=GU sell
-29=EU sell
-15=GU sell
-16=GA buy
------------------NO
+10=EU sell
- 15=GA sell
+1 = EU sell
+74= GU sell
------------------
total----------- +92-85 = -7

It could be less loss and...
  • #19,619
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:57pm Feb 5, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting fxrobinhhood
Ok everybody.
----------------- LO
-18=GU sell
-29=EU sell
-15=GU sell
-16=GA buy
------------------NO
+10=EU sell
- 15=GA sell
+1 = EU sell
+74= GU sell
------------------
total----------- +92-87 = -7

It could be less loss and more proft. If I had followed my rules more strictly, even same tardes could be -55 and +150 pips.
so I would say discipline, discipline, discipline!

Attachment
92-87= +5
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #19,620
  • Feb 5, 2013 5:55pm Feb 5, 2013 5:55pm
Hi,

Two trades done during US session now closed ahead of Tokyo open to book in profits.
Both trade were opened on strong H4 candles closed and with add-in positions on pullback.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 5 Feb Trades 6-2-2013 7-29-37 AM.png Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EA 5 Feb 6-2-2013 7-33-11 AM.png Size: 47 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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