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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #38,681
  • Edited 10:24pm Feb 4, 2013 10:13pm | Edited 10:24pm
Quoting cuthbert
Had been working on the mindset aspect.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post6329723

i ken it needs lots to training,i am taking it slowly. is probably
the only way works for me. sometimes it is there. sometimes its lost.
but i not giving it up easily. gets difficult when i try do it hard.
comes easily when i let it be done naturally.


regards
whats there to work?
is either there or its not.
cannot be half a pragnant.

You feel needs work because its blocked.
guess who's blocking it.


regards

Inserted Video


http://news.discovery.com/human/evol...ng-circles.htm
  • #38,682
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:15pm Feb 4, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting fti
whats there to work?
is either there or its not.
cannot be half a pragnant.

regards
lost when desperately try get it done. sometimes start the process all over again.
works best when start with a blank. desperation has not worked well for me but it
surely had lessons teach.

regards

sometimes even is not felt like a process. hmmm it then feels like something engrained and
engrossed.

yeah know who is blocking it.
  • #38,683
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:19pm Feb 4, 2013 10:19pm
@ fti,

did swisessy is effected after cap at 1.20/eur. is it show it's real value, at the end did swiss central bank is in win win situation.

when central bank intervene (as we see many time in yen,) did the raythem of market change artificially, does it(currency) come to it's natural sate after some time.

how big/ how much a CB'S can go.

did Japan has enough power to put yen above 100/usd for long time.

(more to come)
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,684
  • Edited 10:41pm Feb 4, 2013 10:30pm | Edited 10:41pm
Quoting shaukat113
@ fti,

did swisessy is effected after cap at 1.20/eur. is it show it's real value, at the end did swiss central bank is in win win situation.

when central bank intervene (as we see many time in yen,) did the raythem of market change artificially, does it(currency) come to it's natural sate after some time.

how big/ how much a CB'S can go.

did Japan has enough power to put yen above 100/usd for long time.

(more to come)
Woh.
hold horses. cannot put cart before horses.

we still navigating.
Don't we like to know?

The whys? is the how that works.


regards
  • #38,685
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:43pm Feb 4, 2013 10:43pm
devaluation of currency

does it is a tool, will it work for nation in long run!!!!

example, I work in manufacturing place , the price of my one unit of my product is say 1/usd. ok( in local say it is RS 100, so 1$USD= 100RS)

and I got 1/4= 0.25 usd as a wage. on per unit

at some time my country CB devalue the currency. now the one unit of product price in international market is 0.8/usd (but same as old in local value i.e RS 100)

my wage is 0.20/unit in $us term but in local it is same as RS100. ok

when I go to market for buying some thing say mobile, it was priced before devaluation 1$usd,( RS100) but after devaluation I have to pay RS 120 in local currency.

I have same wage(in local currency) but it power of purchase is decrees.

point is that, does devaluation is beneficial for nation as large.

(more to come)
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,686
  • Edited 11:00pm Feb 4, 2013 10:46pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting shaukat113
devaluation of currency

does it is a tool, will it work for nation in long run!!!!

example, I work in manufacturing place , the price of my one unit of my product is say 1/usd. ok( in local say it is RS 100, so 1$USD= 100RS)

and I got 1/4= 0.25 usd as a wage. on per unit

at some time my country CB devalue the currency. now the one unit of product price in international market is 0.8/usd (but same as old in local value i.e RS 100)

my wage is 0.20/unit in $us term but in local it is same as RS100. ok

when I go to market for...
like you said is good for someone and bad for someone else.
depends on which side of fence you standing.
notice, pesidents gets 50 50 votes?

me i have no fence. just have occupation.
a job only. judgement is not mine.
my results, that for me judge.
only thing for me do is empathy, understanding and kindness.

all i can do is if i see wall in front, isay , hey there's a wall in front of you, becareful.
could be just a few loose bricks, or could be the great wall of china.


regards
  • #38,687
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:55pm Feb 4, 2013 10:55pm
raw material is imported, so after some time when my old stock is finish, I import raw material, which cost my 20% high price as in local currency, so I have to incress my product price. the effect of devaluation is doing _ve impact.

so Japan the most of its raw material in come from different part of world. say energy, etc

oh oil I come this one on next.

(mind is boiling at the moment I need economic class badly)

more to come.
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,688
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:03pm Feb 4, 2013 11:03pm
Quoting shaukat113
raw material is imported, so after some time when my old stock is finish, I import raw material, which cost my 20% high price as in local currency, so I have to incress my product price. the effect of devaluation is doing _ve impact.

so Japan the most of its raw material in come from different part of world. say energy, etc

oh oil I come this one on next.

(mind is boiling at the moment I need economic class badly)

more to come.
so you seller?
try become buyer lor.
now you understand whats eating productivity. or rather who.
whats keeping growth suppressed.
and who to thank.


regards
  • #38,689
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:16pm Feb 4, 2013 11:16pm
here I come to my point, after breakdown of Bretton Woods.

How We Ended Up In This Economic Purgatory.

after no gold standard CB has power to change the currency rate.

did we are hanging in mid air, what happen if confidence upon currency is finish. did the paper currency does own any real value as gold is.

and (I am going to mad) why panda, is sucking gold, digging each inch of earth for gold, holding it.(got my point)

more to come!
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,690
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:35pm Feb 4, 2013 11:35pm
now out of box. thinking.

panda.

The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the
possibility of defeat(holding gold), and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the
enemy.

These military devices(gold in ecnomic war?), leading to victory, must not be divulged
beforehand

Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.( panda holding largest us govt securities bonds etc)
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,691
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:35pm Feb 4, 2013 11:35pm
Quoting shaukat113
here I come to my point, after breakdown of Bretton Woods.

How We Ended Up In This Economic Purgatory.

after no gold standard CB has power to change the currency rate.

did we are hanging in mid air, what happen if confidence upon currency is finish. did the paper currency does own any real value as gold is.

and (I am going to mad) why panda, is sucking gold, digging each inch of earth for gold, holding it.(got my point)

more to come!
yo missed the point.
is not about gold.
Is new component economic factor is now in play.
Is known as cost of labour.

But mostly stucked, because of a policy impliment .
is called minimum labour pricing.

someone not have that wall to climb.

so the cost raw material istrying equalise the artificial labour value.since cost of labour not responds, so only way is appreciate the cost of raw materials in ratio to the value component in the finished product.
.if pricing of finished products not responds also , because artificial supression then business will belly up.

Is just economics trying to equalise. all because of 1 man made inelastic component of manufacturing. Over priced labour. cartelled ?


regards
  • #38,692
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:39pm Feb 4, 2013 11:39pm
Quoting shaukat113
raw material is imported, so after some time when my old stock is finish, I import raw material, which cost my 20% high price as in local currency, so I have to incress my product price. the effect of devaluation is doing _ve impact.

so Japan the most of its raw material in come from different part of world. say energy, etc

oh oil I come this one on next.

(mind is boiling at the moment I need economic class badly)

more to come.
hi Shaukat,

the impact of exchange rates and otehr factors on the trade balance aka exports less imports must be mirrored by their impact on capital flows. They can not affect one without affecting the other. know the fundamental relationship between trade balance and expense/ saving decisions?

they say as; exports less imports = (savings less investments) + (Taxes less Govt. spending)

so trade surplus due to devaluation or any other factor is reflected by excess savings. So one doesn't know abuot asset types but you should be content that asset prices and exchange rates must adjust so that all financial assets are willingly held by investors.
so a flow of capital due to investors selling currency expected to depreciate and vice versa is accompained by shift in trade balance or by changes in asset prices and exchange rates.

Now expense/saving decisions and prices chage slowly than investment decisions and asset prices. This is what chief was referring to wall. you can't know if it is only a fense or a great wall of china. so, most of the adjustment happens within financial market. And being trader you need be aware WHEN that happens.

regards

enough of economic class? next in line is elastic approach. then comes marshell lerner but most of this highly technical stuff is not relevent to ants work.
  • #38,693
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:50pm Feb 4, 2013 11:50pm
Quoting fti
Is just economics trying to equalise. all because of 1 man made inelastic component of manufacturing. Over priced labour. cartelled ?
he definitely needs try artificial tricks if the component is inelastic chief.

regards
  • #38,694
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:52pm Feb 4, 2013 11:52pm
minimum labour pricing.

yep, labour has to live. basic needs, so there is a minimum threshold level, we can't go bellow this, ok labor is cheep in panda, but we have to keep the basic need of that labor at a certain level, if it increases than cost of labor increases.
if labor not satisfied a social unrest up rise, without satisfactions of labor no productivity will be seen.
to satisfies one need resources, did panda have all resources in homeland. how long he put that labor cost at low level??

(sorry if I am out track just give me a hint I hold at there)
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,695
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:53pm Feb 4, 2013 11:53pm
Quoting cuthbert
hi Shaukat,

the impact of exchange rates and otehr factors on the trade balance aka exports less imports must be mirrored by their impact on capital flows. They can not affect one without affecting the other. know the fundamental relationship between trade balance and expense/ saving decisions?

they say as; exports less imports = (savings less investments) + (Taxes less Govt. spending)

so trade surplus due to devaluation or any other factor is reflected by excess savings. So one doesn't know abuot asset types but you should be content...
ok simple maths.
priceof merchandise=cost of raw material+cost of production(machinery +labour)+ merchant profit margins.
there is a traditional ratio. between them.
if cost of production is held inelastic and unratioed to cost of raw materials.
and all remains unchanged
then what must appreciate to rebalance?

this brought about by introduction of a new factor.
1 billion+ factors in my opinion, which never existed before.
something was overpriced, and is forced inelastic.
so what must happen?


regards
  • #38,696
  • Edited 12:33am Feb 5, 2013 12:04am | Edited 12:33am
Quoting fti
ok simple maths.
priceof merchandise=cost of raw material+cost of production(machinery +labour)+ merchant profit margins.
there is a traditional ratio. between them.
if cost of production is held inelastic and unratioed to cost of raw materials.
and all remains unchanged
then what must appreciate to rebalance?

this brought about by introduction of a new factor.
1 billion+ factors in my opinion, which never existed before.
something was overpriced, and is forced inelastic.
so what must happen?
regards
that would be cost of raw materials. And so should the price of merchandise increase.
manufacturers will fight for their share. And if they a few sellers they will try to do john nash
thingy or will try to cartellize.


regards
  • #38,697
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:14am Feb 5, 2013 12:14am
I am listening
Attached Image
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,698
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:44am Feb 5, 2013 12:44am
Hi fti


WOW,i wake to find this time you have given me a manual, thank you for another valuable lesson and one I am at the stage of trying to understand, now I can look at my screen and be sure I am looking in the right places even if I am still not quite there with my understanding of this part, I just have to concentrate and practise on seeing/doing what is there and not worrying whether I am actually looking in the right places now.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #38,699
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:03am Feb 5, 2013 3:03am
ok back, now what next.
just live a life, don't be hard.
  • #38,700
  • Feb 5, 2013 4:25am Feb 5, 2013 4:25am
Quoting doddy
'Old Man' are called in my cultures and it is a symbol of respect and of wisdom.

Interesting how something can be so different between cultures. One respectful and the other not so much.
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