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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #5,621
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:17pm Feb 3, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting -er-
5M
I just tried out the 5 minute without looking at yours, and i see ours totally differ i assumed it started with a 1-2-3-4-5 wave to the downside, which i guess should only be in an A or C wave.

Anyways, heres my two tries, i think the second is better, because the (iii) wave in the first was way to short, isnt it supposed to be long in time and price, and it was only long in price in the first try.

Help is very welcome....


edit: i know im jusut eye balling this, and i should also measure out the harmonics to verify... it also looks like a triangle at the end, so confusing

first try
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second try
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  • #5,622
  • Feb 3, 2013 5:53pm Feb 3, 2013 5:53pm
Can someone help me label this section of the eurusd? im not sure how to label big turnarounds like that. so many bg spikes up too , dont know how to label those

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  • #5,623
  • Feb 3, 2013 6:51pm Feb 3, 2013 6:51pm
Heres my 'local' try at eurusd 100 tick chart.

i just considered the 5 wave down, and assumed it would form an abcd which i guess would be the start of a (i) or something. too many assumptions, how do i do this?

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  • #5,624
  • Feb 3, 2013 7:37pm Feb 3, 2013 7:37pm
lol i was wrong. new prediction!

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  • #5,625
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:57pm Feb 3, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting Starry
lol i was wrong. new prediction!

Attachment
now for the spreadsheet. tried an alternate count, and the iii was way too close (125%), so went with my old count...
my old count seems to work out well.... unless in the old count the iii hadnt even formed yet. what to choose what to choose....

wrong count
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hopefully right count
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  • #5,626
  • Feb 4, 2013 5:04am Feb 4, 2013 5:04am
Quoting Starry
now for the spreadsheet. tried an alternate count, and the iii was way too close (125%), so went with my old count...
my old count seems to work out well.... unless in the old count the iii hadnt even formed yet. what to choose what to choose....

wrong count
Attachment
hopefully right count
Attachment
One pointer...

How does this count fit into the next higher wave degree and the wave degree above that?
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,627
  • Feb 4, 2013 7:01am Feb 4, 2013 7:01am
Quoting Ian Copsey
One pointer...

How does this count fit into the next higher wave degree and the wave degree above that?
thanks, ill take a look at that soon.
  • #5,628
  • Feb 4, 2013 7:03am Feb 4, 2013 7:03am
triple three, should've known it would have gone to three! but i dont know what it is correcting, surely not the previous up impulse.

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  • #5,629
  • Feb 4, 2013 12:24pm Feb 4, 2013 12:24pm
This is going to be very slow going, having to start at the daily to trade the tick chart. what timeframe would you go up to too analyze this?

anyways, i started at the beginning of the uptrend, but some stuff doesnt seem to check out in the first a wave.

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  • #5,630
  • Feb 4, 2013 12:33pm Feb 4, 2013 12:33pm
Is i true that the III wave always has to atleast be a 161 projection from the II point, according to the spreadsheet?
  • #5,631
  • Feb 4, 2013 1:16pm Feb 4, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting Starry
Is i true that the III wave always has to atleast be a 161 projection from the II point, according to the spreadsheet?

Normally 176.4% is the shortest projection in Wave iii. I put in 161.8% but have actually only ever seen it less than a handful of times. I noted that some of your Wave i's looked remarkably like 5-wave moves... probably that is screwing up the Wave iii projections...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,632
  • Feb 4, 2013 1:25pm Feb 4, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
Normally 176.4% is the shortest projection in Wave iii. I put in 161.8% but have actually only ever seen it less than a handful of times. I noted that some of your Wave i's looked remarkably like 5-wave moves... probably that is screwing up the Wave iii projections...
are 50% projections of I-III from IV very common, for wave V? theyre the lowest on your sheet
  • #5,633
  • Feb 4, 2013 2:55pm Feb 4, 2013 2:55pm
Hey, now i got it i think!

H4 wave count, assuming we are in a 5 impulse wave of a correction it targeted the top before the drop anyways.....

I like using minimal bounds,, very useful...

prediction: eurusd drops to atleast 50% via alternation guideline (shallow 2 = deep 4, atleast 50%) .

However, i need to plug allaspects into the sheet, the big rise after the (b) of the iii waves doesnt seem right, what would that be, a million 5 waves put together? idk lol

honestly, it looks like its forming a 5 impulse wave up, and the first big rise was wave 1 or something, so it wont drop? who knows


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  • #5,634
  • Feb 4, 2013 3:10pm Feb 4, 2013 3:10pm
Honestly it looks like it might be a double or tiple zigzag, but then that big wave at the front is what, because it cant have a corrective zigzag in an impulse wave.

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now that ive had some experience i need to go back in the book and pull up the charts. i wish the years were on the charts, but i think theyre mostly 2010. ....
  • #5,635
  • Feb 4, 2013 4:00pm Feb 4, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting Starry
are 50% projections of I-III from IV very common, for wave V? theyre the lowest on your sheet
Yes, I see 50% in Wave (v) quite frequently
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,636
  • Feb 4, 2013 4:03pm Feb 4, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting Starry
thanks, ill take a look at that soon.
I suggest you look at it first.

By knowing what the larger wave degree is saying you have an idea of what is needed within the lower wave degree.

If there is any common mistake I notice in EW counts it is the focus on the current wave and not the entire picture... However, to be fair, EW allows that... as there are virtually no boundaries when you think you can have an extended Wave 1, or Wave 3 or Wave 5 and with no projection limitations/controls. Hardly allows people to keep in control of the outlook...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,637
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:40pm Feb 4, 2013 6:40pm
Ive recounted the down leg based on having minimal iii wave and iv wave and c projecctions. however, i havent yet taken into consideration the larger timeframe, but baby steps. This way i get to compare why i went wrong, or right , in each step. already see how this counting differs from the one yesterday, and how i couldve got this count then (atleast the first part)

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  • #5,638
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:05pm Feb 4, 2013 10:05pm
updated count. cmon slow asian verify my count please ! idk ill just wait it out, it doesnt look right

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  • #5,639
  • Feb 5, 2013 5:39am Feb 5, 2013 5:39am
Quoting Starry
updated count. cmon slow asian verify my count please ! idk ill just wait it out, it doesnt look right

Attachment
How did you label the 1.3711 high?
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #5,640
  • Feb 5, 2013 9:21am Feb 5, 2013 9:21am
Quoting Ian Copsey
How did you label the 1.3711 high?
I labeled it (iii), the third leg of an impulse wave which was in the second leg of a zigzag correction on h4.

so i guess that would make the leg a (iv), which would mean counting the downleg as an impulse leg was wrong. well, atleast the minimal requirements for the end of the 3 wave were mark on.... but if the down wave truly isnt an impulse wave, that means everything there was wrong....

h4 count
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