Daily Statement: JPY Recovers on Profit Taking as BoJ Starts Meeting
PY recovers broadly today as BoJ started its two day policy meeting. Expectation on the post meeting announcement is high considering that yen is down more than 8% against dollar since December and nearly 11% against Euro. It's generally expected that BoJ would expand the stimulus program, probably by another JPY 10T. The move would be significant in a way that it's the firs time in more than 10 years that the central bank expands easing in two consecutive meetings. ...
2013 FX Forecast: Australian USD To Weaken Steadily Against US USD
We expect AUDUSD would steadily weaken this year. While quantitative easing by the Fed has kept the currency pair above parity for most of the time last year, fundamental weakness in Australia should lead to further monetary easing by the RBA. >>>
Weekly Stocktaking and Forecast: USD Ended The Week Higher on Debt Ceiling, BoJ in Focus This Week
There are some important points to note about last bank week's market developments. Firstly, it's a surprise that dollar ended the bank week as the strongest currency, gained against all other major currencies. The news that GOP agreed to lift the debt limit for three months gave the greenback a late boost...
GBP/USD's fall from 1.6380 extends further to as low as 1.5853 last bank week and initial bias remains on the downside for 1.5827 key near term support level. At this point, we're still viewing fall from 1.6380 as a correction and expect strong support from 1.5827 to bring recoil. Above 1.5954...
USD/CHF rose to as high as 0.9388 last bank week and breached 0.9382 resistance. Though, there was no follow through buying to sustain above 0.9382 yet. And with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this bank week. On the downside, fracture of 0.9285 minor support will indicate...
The fracture of 1.0494 minor support last bank week suggests that recoil from 1.0344 has completed and initial bias is mildly on the downside this bank week for 1.0344 support first. As noted before, choppy recoil from 1.0148 is viewed as a corrective move. Break of 1.0344 will indicate that such recoil...
USD/CAD's recoil from 0.9815 gathered momentum last bank week and reached as high as 0.9946. The development argues that consolidation pattern from 1.0056 has completed with three waves down to 0.9815 already. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this bank week for 0.9970 resistance first. Break will affirm this bullish case...
Yesterday’s selloff to 0.9958 has dampened our bullishness and Failure to extend yesterday’s recoil and although the pair has recovered from there today, upside should be limited to 1.0030 and downside risk remains for the fall from 1.0101 top to bring weakness towards 0.9925-30 but still reckon support at 0.9904 would limit downside and bring another rise later next bank week...
As the single currency has surged again after brief pullback, suggesting recent rally is still in progress and may extend further gain to 0.8665 resistance and possibly towards 0.8700, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 0.8730-35 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a correction to take place later. Below 0.8600 would bring minor correction to 0.8550-55 where renewed buying interests should emerge and bring another rally later...
Despite last bank week’s fall to 1.0361, the subsequent recoil suggest low is possibly formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of 1.0452, then 1.0475-80, however, fracture of latter level is needed to confirm and bring further gain to 1.0520-30, above there would signal fall from 1.0599 has possibly ended and bring a stronger recoil to 1.0510-20 and then 1.0550 but price should falter below resistance at 1.0599 and bring further choppy consolidation later...
Last bank week’s rally signals recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 127.05-10 (100% projection of 117.07-122.91 measuring from 121.22), then 127.50 would be seen, however, reckon upside would be limited to 128.00 due to near term overbought condition and price should falter below 128.50, risk from there is seen for a minor correction to take place later...
Current firmness suggests recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 92.99 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 110.67-75.31) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 93.30-35 and reckon 93.50-55 (100% projection of 81.69-88.38 measuring from 86.84) would limit upside and 93.75-80 should hold from here, bring correction later...
Despite Friday’s late rally to 1.3711, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat from there suggest a potential evening star pattern was formed on the hourly chart and near term downside risk is seen for retracement to Friday’s low of 1.3574 and possibly to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3561), however, reckon 1.3530-35 would limit downside and bring another upmove later. Above 1.3660-70 would bring a retest of 1.3711 but fracture of this last bank week’s high is needed to signal recent upmove has once again resumed and extend headway towards 1.3740-50, however, upside should be limited to 1.3775-80 and risk from there is seen for a correction to take place later...
Although current firmness suggests recent upmove is still in progress and the breach of 92.99 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 110.67-75.31) signal gain to 93.30-35 would be seen, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 93.50-55 (100% projection of 81.69-88.38 measuring from 86.84) and reckon 93.75-80 would hold from here, bring correction later. Below 92.80 would bring minor correction to 92.49-50 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and intra-day support), however, reckon downside would be limited to 92.00 and the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 91.78) should remain intact, bring another rally...
Although cable’s selloff from last bank week’s high of 1.5879 to 1.5683 signals correction from 1.5674 has ended there, current recoil after holding above said recent low suggests consolidation would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5764) cannot be ruled out, however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5802) should limit upside and bring another decline later. A fracture of 1.5683 would bring a retest of previous support at 1.5674 but fracture there is needed to confirm early downtrend from 1.6380 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.5640-50 but near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.5615-20...
GBP/USD: Lloyds Business Sentiment Index Slips In January
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT on Friday, GBP fell 0.95% against the USD and closed at 1.5718, as investors fretted over weak manufacturing data in the UK. The Markit’s manufacturing PMI fell to a reading of 50.8 in January, from a downwardly revised reading of 51.2 in December...
USD/JPY: Central Bank Aims To Defeat Deflation, Indicates Taro Aso
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT on Friday, the USD strengthened 0.90% against the JPY and closed at 92.54.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 92.64, with the USD trading 0.11% higher from Friday’s close.
This morning, the monetary base in Japan rose 10.9% in January, following an 11.8% rise in December.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister, Taro Aso, defended the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy stance and stated that the central bank’s policy is aimed at defeating deflation and not to depreciate the JPY...
USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Gained On Better-Than-Expected Swiss PMI Data
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by GCI Financial | Feb 04 13 06:18 GMT
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT on Friday, the USD declined 0.26% against the CHF and closed at 0.9071, as Switzerland’s SVME PMI climbed to a reading of 52.5 in January, against the expected reading of 50.5 and from a revised reading of 49.2 in December.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9089, with the USD trading 0.20% higher from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9037, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8984. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9126, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9162...
